The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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0
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3answers
61 views

To currency hedge or not to currency hedge (ETFs)?

When is it preferable to use a currency hedged ETF over a none currency hedged ETF? There has been studies which have shown over the longer term currency hedging does not make a difference. ...
-2
votes
1answer
49 views

calculating portfolio volatility [closed]

Given: vector of portfolio weights $W = [w_1 w_1 ]$ correlation matrix $C = \left( \begin{array}{ccc} a & b \\ d & e \end{array} \right) $ standard deviation of the asset returns $S = [s_1 ...
3
votes
0answers
22 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
2
votes
1answer
116 views

Why using the swap curve as riskfree rate and no longer gov bonds?

I recently had an interview where I was asked what to use as risk-free rate. In all my textbooks it was always the US treasury yield curve. But they said no its now the "swap curve". Why is the swap ...
0
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1answer
47 views

Expected Utility and $\log$

I've just started reading about expected utility and utility functions and have the following question. $\textbf{Question:}$ An investor has an initial wealth of 100 and a utility function of the ...
1
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1answer
84 views

Markowitz portfolio optimization question

I am studying the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory, and I just wanted to ask if I understood this correctly. For a stock portfolio we distinguish two kinds of risks: an unsystematic risk, which ...
7
votes
3answers
212 views

New ways of communicating risk

One of the scapegoats of the financial crisis was value at risk. Still communicating risks effectively to clients is a big challenge and hugely important (also to keep your job as a quant!) In this ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Difference between Risk avoidance and Risk transfer

I was hoping some could explain the two terms namely, risk avoidance and risk transfer. Also, can a risk be avoided by transferring it?
1
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1answer
53 views

Why normalize only data for CDSs for PCA?

I'm reading a Credit Suisse Research Report on PCA. The report says that to preprocess the data, you should "Centre data (and normalize when considering CDS data)." Why would you only normalize ...
0
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0answers
55 views

How to use the asset covariance matrix for risk analysis in excess returns equation

New here and I have a question that may be very basic but despite my research I cannot connect the dots. I would like to know how to connect the nxn asset covariance matrix for an efficient tangency ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

How discount TVaR of a put option?

Let say I want to calculate the TVaR of a put option. After I simulated possible outcomes in real-world, how do I discount the outcomes? Is there a difference if I am hedged or not? I tried to use ...
1
vote
1answer
104 views

Semi-variance/Downside Risk, what about the rest of the covariance matrix?

I just bumped into a rather interesting article from wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downside_risk where they define the semi-variance also called Downside risk, which bascially only ...
0
votes
1answer
201 views

Portfolio optimzation : efficient frontier with respect to risk aversion parameter with R

I am currently trying to write a little script in R to determine the optimal weights given a fixed risk aversion parameter. The problem I have is that by increasing the risk aversion parameter I think ...
0
votes
1answer
71 views

What are good online resources for credit portfolio managers?

I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find any site/forum/wiki, where credit portfolio managers hang out to share their experience and their methods. ...
0
votes
1answer
68 views

What are the different Credit Portfolio Management models and what are their advantages?

CreditMetrics, RiskMetrics(Algorithims), etc. are all different risk methodologies used by many banks. However, what are their advantages/disadvantages? I would appreciate your replies!
1
vote
1answer
96 views

What is the difference between these two Expected Shortfall definitions?

I have come across different ways expected shortfall is defined. e.g. $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{1-a}\int_a^1VaR_b(X)db$$ and $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{a}\int_0^aVaR_b(X)db$$ e.g. on Wikipedia's article. Are these ...
3
votes
1answer
110 views

What are recent important papers on credit portfolio risk modeling?

I'm interested in papers which consider mathematical models of risks of different portfolios of retail credit. This is not my area of research, so I may be misusing some terms. The idea is simple: I ...
0
votes
1answer
106 views

Convert a call spread to a butterfly to mitigate risk

I do not have a source for this (apologies), but sometimes, I hear about option traders initiating a vertical spread(short) and then converting that call spread to a butterfly spread to mitigate risk. ...
1
vote
1answer
79 views

Does DV01 grow proportionally to portfolio?

I'm having trouble understanding DV01 convention. From what I understand it stands for "Dollar value of 1 basis point." For instance, if I have a bond with DV01 = 0.05, does a portfolio composed of ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
0
votes
1answer
34 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
0
votes
1answer
135 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
2
votes
1answer
109 views

Portfolio choice problem of a CARA investor with n risky assets

Ok, I am working on a problem that consists of the following: I am looking to solve the portfolio choice optimization problem (maximizing utility with a known utility function) in the case where all ...
1
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0answers
43 views

Comparing cost of two alternative given their distribution

I have distribution for cost of two alternative through Monte Carlo simulation. The distributions are not normal. Given the benefit of the two alternatives is the same but ungiven, I want to choose ...
2
votes
1answer
133 views

Constant Relative Risk Aversion

The question: Consider a person with constant relative risk aversion p. (a) Suppose the person has wealth of 100,000 and faces a gamble in which he wins or loses x with equal probabilities. ...
4
votes
2answers
192 views

Impact on bid/offer due to volume/size of trades placed

When observing bid/offer in the market I came across a question. How much trading a bond would impact its spread for subsequent trades ie. what is the impact on bid/offer due to volume/size of ...
1
vote
1answer
170 views

Which sports are generally the best for trading on betting exchanges for a profit?

I am looking at trading bets on tennis, football and horse racing in particular as these appear to have the most liquidity. How much background research and how much trial and error is generally ...
0
votes
0answers
68 views

Is it possible to generate Alpha by taking only systematic risks?

I read somewhere that to generate Alpha one has to take idiosyncratic risks. But is it not possible to generate alpha by taking just systematic risks. There could be a asset allocation strategy where ...
1
vote
1answer
54 views

Longevity risk modelling

What is Longevity risk, and how to model it under DC and DB pension plans? characters|characters|characters|characters|characters|
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votes
3answers
221 views

Parametric/Analytical VaR

Suppose I want to calculate VaR for a known distribution with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ and $\alpha$-quantile as, $VaR_{\alpha}$ = $\mu + \sigma q_{\alpha}$. For a Gaussian distribution it is ...
1
vote
2answers
266 views

What Matlab packages to I need as a Risk Analyst?

What toolbox are more suitable for a risk analyst. I found this: Optimization toolbox Global optimization toolbox Econometrics toolbox Financial toolbox Statistics toolbox And also I have as a ...
1
vote
0answers
116 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views

Solvency Problem for Financial Institutions

According to my finance lecture, the motivation for risk measures is grounded in the solvency problem: Risk measures are used to determine the amount of capital to avoid insolvency of the financial ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

volatility grouping

I was working on risk levels of a combined portolfio (includes options,futures as well as stock). While using greeks we can asses some value of a portolio, but when one needs to assess some kind of ...
0
votes
1answer
207 views

Factoring risk premium in to Forward Rate calculation

This is a self study question. I'm calculating a forward rate. Specifically, I have that in a country X, the Spot Rate is 5X/1US. I also have that the 1 year interest rate is 13% in country X and ...
2
votes
1answer
61 views

Variability in the Expected Shortfall estimator

Are there any results for calculating the variability in the Expected Shortfall measure. I am looking for Large sample confidence intervals under Normality for Expected Shortfall or calculation of ...
3
votes
2answers
280 views

Where can I find a list of VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions?

Where can I find more VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions? I collected a list here:
2
votes
1answer
50 views

What are the properties of the Expected Shortall measure when split in multiple time periods?

Suppose I have a single time series of losses $L$ that consists of two sub-parts $L_1$ and $L_2$. Is there a relationship that relates the expected shortfall of $L$ to the expected shortfall of $L_1, ...
6
votes
4answers
633 views

Is there anyone still using Markowitz modern portfolio theory?

I was reading about the MPT (Use standard deviation as risk measure) on "Mathematics for Finance by Marek Capinski". I was just wondering is there anyone actually applying this theory to their ...
0
votes
1answer
115 views

CAPM (SML) Problem

I got 1.3636 for beta for the problem below(165/121). But I became so unsure about the answer when I solved (c) because then the market risk becomes larger than the variance of Stock A. ...
3
votes
9answers
472 views

Why would there be a positive risk-free rate?

Most financial models include a risk-free rate or risk-free asset. Why should there be such thing as a positive risk-free rate? I dont see why an asset would provide a positive (real) return if it ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Hedging using relative values

Consider I have two stocks $A$ and $B$, $A$ is trading at $\$40$ and $B$ at $\$30$. The standard deviation of its returns are $\sigma_A=25\%$ and $\sigma_B = 30\%$. Correlation between the returns is ...
2
votes
0answers
77 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
1
vote
0answers
49 views

how to find CVaR/AVaR for triangular fuzzy no

While going through different methods of risk measure i came across AVaR/CVaR, while i was calculating AVaR/CVaR in credibilistic environment using VaR, i got stuck in the calculations eg. For ...
2
votes
1answer
266 views

Which is the better risk sensitive measure?

Consider the two following optimization problem 1) $$ \min_{\theta} \ln E_{\theta}[ e^{X}]$$ 2) $$ \min_{\theta} E_{\theta}[ X]$$ with the constraint $$ Var_{\theta}[X] <c$$ Is it true that ...
0
votes
3answers
410 views

How to create a model or formula for evaluating trade opportunities

I want to build a formula to produce a score for a potential trade based on 4 variables, time, return, liquidity of security, and probability of failure. For a set of potential trades I first ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
2
votes
0answers
40 views

Formal Proof of Immunization Techniqu

Please correct me if I am wrong in understanding the Immunisation Technique behind bond interest rate risk management. It says that any change in interest rate can be neutralised by reinvesting the ...
1
vote
0answers
48 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
0
votes
0answers
379 views

Difference between “basic risk” and “basis risk”

Returning to Futures contracts, basic risk refers to the risk remaining after the hedge has been put in place and essentially represents the difference between the Futures price – should the ...