The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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2
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0answers
42 views

Want to understand the links and relationship between all the risk metrics?

For Example : if Risk weighted asset (RWA) increased or decreased this month, which other risk metrics could have influenced RWA to increase or decrease. Also in different situations like, upward ...
5
votes
2answers
14k views
2
votes
0answers
45 views

The best way to generate market scenarios [closed]

What general approaches could you recommend for modeling spot rates(for different maturities) and forward rates?(eg for LIBOR) I need to generate scenarios for term-structure of interest rates. What ...
0
votes
0answers
60 views

how best to equalize individual pair risk in a portfolio of stock pairs?

I am building a portfolio of stock pairs in which each pair is individually hedged via beta/hedge ratio adjustment. I am looking for a method to ensure that I am taking the same risk in each pair that ...
2
votes
1answer
42 views

Expected Shortfall alternative formulation

Define: $$q_\alpha(F_L)=F^{\leftarrow}(\alpha)=\inf\lbrace{x\in \mathbb{R}\mid F_L(x)\geq \alpha\rbrace}=VaR_\alpha(L)$$ I want to prove that: $$ES_\alpha = ...
6
votes
2answers
247 views

Is there any research on pyramiding techniques of entering/exiting a trend?

I am looking for any research about optimal strategies for gradually building (scaling in) positions inside a trend as well as optimal gradual exit strategies on pullbacks/reversals to minimise ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

Performance analysis for a changing portfolio

I am trying to do a performance analysis of an investment in five different funds (A to E). I am investing a fixed amount at each fund (say 10m in A, 20m in B, 10m in C, 20m in D, 10m in E) but the ...
1
vote
1answer
185 views

How to projectP&L or drawdowns on pair trading , trading and portfolios? [closed]

This is for planning and risk management. I am stuck on the following thoughts - Back-test the trading strategy for a period similar to the one you expect and then project. Do the above using ...
3
votes
0answers
30 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
3
votes
1answer
68 views

VaR calculation accuracy/comparison/effectiveness through different R packages

My question is what would be the better( in terms of estimation accuracy) method of VaR calculation among below two:, also any small code snippet will be great as a starting point for me. 1st method: ...
1
vote
1answer
42 views

How to effectively hedge a Fixed-Term deal in a foreign currency?

Assume my firm is based in USD and agrees with some counterparty to buy, at time $T$, some quantity $Q$ of asset $A$ for a fixed price $K$. Assume also that $A$ prices and $K$ are denominated in EUR. ...
7
votes
3answers
234 views

New ways of communicating risk

One of the scapegoats of the financial crisis was value at risk. Still communicating risks effectively to clients is a big challenge and hugely important (also to keep your job as a quant!) In this ...
5
votes
2answers
139 views

Why is the variance of a portfolio a quadratic form?

I was reading about MPT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory and notices that the total variance of a portfolio is $x' \Sigma x$, where x is the weighting of the assets and $\Sigma$ ...
1
vote
1answer
207 views

Machine learning to build top 3 price scenarios over n days

I have a time series of closing prices for a given stock. I would like to formulate possible future scenarios for the price. My intention is not to use these "likely" scenarios to take any position. ...
9
votes
1answer
254 views

Regression in liquidity risk model of Jarrow/Protter

In the paper "Liquidity Risk and Risk Measure Computation" authors describe a linear supply curve model for liquidity risks in presence of market impact, i.e. impact-affected asset price $S(t,x)$ is ...
2
votes
0answers
174 views

Modified duration in multi-currency portfolio

I was thinking about how to figure aut duration for portfolio of bonds denominated in different currencies… I would like to compare sensitivity of portfolio to shift of yield with competitive ...
1
vote
1answer
132 views

References for PD / LGD estimates of low-default portfolios

Any recommendations or reading sources for estimating individual PDs and LGDs for a set of low-default assets (souvereigns, investment grade corporates)? Since observing no defaults at all, regular ...
2
votes
0answers
112 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
0
votes
3answers
420 views

How to create a model or formula for evaluating trade opportunities

I want to build a formula to produce a score for a potential trade based on 4 variables, time, return, liquidity of security, and probability of failure. For a set of potential trades I first ...
0
votes
1answer
90 views

What are good online resources for credit portfolio managers?

I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find any site/forum/wiki, where credit portfolio managers hang out to share their experience and their methods. ...
3
votes
1answer
133 views

What are recent important papers on credit portfolio risk modeling?

I'm interested in papers which consider mathematical models of risks of different portfolios of retail credit. This is not my area of research, so I may be misusing some terms. The idea is simple: I ...
2
votes
3answers
185 views

comparing modified VaR to ordinary VaR

What inferences can one draw when given a modified VaR at x% confidence and an ordinary VaR at x% confidence level. If the two are equal one inference can be that returns are gaussian but that also ...
0
votes
0answers
176 views

continuous dividend yield - european option

Can someone help with following task? You need to use a 5-period forward binomial model to price options, which is constructed by specifying the up and down moves as follows: u = exp {(r − δ) · h + ...
1
vote
2answers
287 views

What Matlab packages to I need as a Risk Analyst?

What toolbox are more suitable for a risk analyst. I found this: Optimization toolbox Global optimization toolbox Econometrics toolbox Financial toolbox Statistics toolbox And also I have as a ...
2
votes
2answers
128 views

Works of Nassim Taleb

I am looking to find the list of math/statistics papers of Nassim Taleb. However the google scholar page only seems to show popular articles. I know that he's famous for his theory of randomness and ...
1
vote
0answers
91 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
1
vote
1answer
117 views

What are the different Credit Portfolio Management models and what are their advantages?

CreditMetrics, RiskMetrics(Algorithims), etc. are all different risk methodologies used by many banks. However, what are their advantages/disadvantages? I would appreciate your replies!
1
vote
1answer
125 views

What is the difference between these two Expected Shortfall definitions?

I have come across different ways expected shortfall is defined. e.g. $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{1-a}\int_a^1VaR_b(X)db$$ and $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{a}\int_0^aVaR_b(X)db$$ e.g. on Wikipedia's article. Are these ...
1
vote
0answers
222 views

How to calculate global exposure via commitment approach for FX swaps?

How would you calculate global exposure for FX swaps using the commitment approach? In particular, would you take into account both legs? CESR guidelines (CESR/10-788) defines that the exposure for ...
1
vote
1answer
43 views

How to manage risk on a call calendar when underlying is falling

Let us say I bough a call calendar spread. Now, at expiry of the short option, the underlying has decreased significantly, and I am approaching my max loss(i.e both the options are close to 0). In ...
3
votes
1answer
74 views

Longevity risk modelling

What is Longevity risk, and how to model it under DC and DB pension plans? characters|characters|characters|characters|characters|
1
vote
1answer
169 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
1
vote
1answer
55 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
1
vote
1answer
275 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
9
votes
2answers
943 views

Links to the risk model methodologies of the major providers?

There is quite a bit of art in constructing an equity risk model. This paper summarizes some of the key decisions: choice of factors, horizon matching, cross-sectional vs. time-series method, and ...
1
vote
0answers
126 views

Fixed Income risk attribution in the historical simulation of a sovereign bond portfolio

We use historical simulation for risk analysis. I.e. for each bond there is a repricing of the form $$ P_j = PV(\text{yield curve in scenario } j), $$ where the yield curve is the zero rates curve of ...
-1
votes
1answer
103 views

conservative approach payoff table

With the conservative approach, we choose the decision which maximises minimum payoff. I was wondering which decision is chosen if 2 decisions have equal minimum payoff (which is the maximum)? ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

Variability in the Expected Shortfall estimator

Are there any results for calculating the variability in the Expected Shortfall measure. I am looking for Large sample confidence intervals under Normality for Expected Shortfall or calculation of ...
1
vote
4answers
136 views

How to extrapolate VaR?

I have a model predicting 1-day VaR. How does 1-year VaR follow from it? Shall I just multiply by 365 or another method?
1
vote
0answers
146 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
0
votes
1answer
121 views

Index creation from multiple time-series and variable weights

I am trying to compose one index out of several (three) indices with variable weights, 50%, 25% and 25%. After normalizing and calculating the log returns, what would be the best way to create the ...
6
votes
4answers
811 views

Is there anyone still using Markowitz modern portfolio theory?

I was reading about the MPT (Use standard deviation as risk measure) on "Mathematics for Finance by Marek Capinski". I was just wondering is there anyone actually applying this theory to their ...
4
votes
3answers
272 views

Capital Allocation for Portfolio of Multi-Strategy and Multi-Instrument

I would like to know if there is a way (or theory) to manage a multi-strategy, multi-instruments portfolio that would calculate the optimal weight to allocate capital for each combination of strategy ...
-1
votes
2answers
168 views

Question 1.18 from Hull's Financial Risk management CAPM

A portfolio manager maintains an active portfolio with beta of 0.2. Risk-free rate is 5% The market return for a particular year is -30% The fund produced a result of -10%. He claimed the return was ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

Standard errors clustered along the time dimension in pooled panel logit model

I'm trying to estimate a logit model on pooled panel data set (unit of observation is firm-year). My dependant variable is default indicator and I have several macro variables as independant ...
1
vote
1answer
230 views

Estimate correlation of time series whose histories differ in length

Very often in quantitative analysis (e.g. calculating portfolio volatility) we have to analyze various time series - mostly returns - whose lenghts differ. Risk systems usually apply a one-factor ...
1
vote
0answers
38 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
1
vote
0answers
53 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
4
votes
1answer
174 views

questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why the following figure plots it as ...