The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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9
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1answer
364 views

copula-marginal algorithm

has there been any interesting work or advances on the copula-marginal algorithm (CMA) as proposed by Attilio Meucci. I am unable to find anything on the web other then the original article, here is ...
7
votes
1answer
414 views

What is the optimal strategy when there is an equal chance for gain or loss but the size of the potential gain is larger?

I'm investigating a situation where the chance for gain or loss is the same, but the amount gained is greater than the amount that is lost. For example, the gain would be about 30% of the trade ...
7
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2answers
1k views

How to apply risk-parity portfolio construction to a dollar-neutral portfolio?

Long-only risk-parity portfolios have proliferated in recent years. An optimized long-only risk-parity portfolio requires that the asset weight * marginal contribution to risk of the asset is ...
4
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2answers
129 views

How do you handle short-term asset allocation with Hedge-Funds?

Assuming I want to run an optimization over a short period, say 2 years, I would decide to take daily values in order to compute the efficient frontier of a portfolio. That works fine as long as I ...
9
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2answers
405 views

Links to the risk model methodologies of the major providers?

There is quite a bit of art in constructing an equity risk model. This paper summarizes some of the key decisions: choice of factors, horizon matching, cross-sectional vs. time-series method, and ...
10
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4answers
1k views

What books should any quantitative portfolio manager or risk manager have as reference? [closed]

I'm interested to know what are the critical reference texts you rely on for portfolio or risk management? I mean those texts that you come back to because they are chock full of insight and know-how. ...
7
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1answer
496 views

Monte carlo portfolio risk simulation

My objective is to show the distribution of a portfolio's expected utilities via random sampling. The utility function has two random components. The first component is an expected return vector ...
6
votes
1answer
255 views

Which is a more appropriate choice of risk measurement in a utility function, CVaR or VaR?

What is the consensus on which risk measure to use in measuring portfolio risk? I am researching what is the best risk measure to use in a portfolio construction process for a long/short option-free ...
4
votes
5answers
21k views

How to calculate unsystematic risk?

We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
6
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3answers
738 views

What position-sizing methods are used in futures trading?

Beyond optimal / partial f and a few other older methods, there's very little information out there for futures trading.
5
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3answers
104 views

Which lags or percentiles should be run in a batch when calculating Value-at-Risk?

Are there any "standard" VaR calculations run in a batch? For example, testing a VaR calculation with a lag of 1,2, 5 or 10 days over 2 years? Same question for the percentile, 1%, 2.5%, 5% etc.
8
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1answer
2k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
5
votes
1answer
711 views

Value at Risk backtesting (kupiec)

I m doing my research on estimating Value at risk using different assumptions on volatility and then compare my results based on backtesting. I obtained results and just on question based on my ...
7
votes
2answers
473 views

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia?

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia on a security-by-security basis with a medium term horizon (say 3 month to 12 months horizon)? ...
5
votes
1answer
565 views

Why write options on a volatility target index?

There seems to be increasing interest in risk controlled products such as volatility target indices and derivatives products on these underlyings. From a risk management perspective what are the ...
3
votes
1answer
414 views

Basel II modelling vs Solvency II modelling?

How do the two modelling frameworks compare? I spent some time developing PD LGD and EAD models for banking portfolios... But I never did insurance modelling project which I suspect is based on ...
4
votes
2answers
308 views

Is it common to use multiple brokers for risk reduction?

Would it be considered appropriate risk-management or overkill to utilize multiple brokers to manage a given trading strategy? A couple specifics: I'm interested in what a reasonably-sized hedge ...
6
votes
1answer
501 views

How to annualize Expected Shortfall?

I have a time series with monthly data from which I compute the expected shortfall empirically, following the classical definition which can be found, for example, in wikipedia's definition. That is, ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views

Value-at-Risk of the sum of two dependent lognormal random variables

Hy I posted this question first at mathflow.net they suggested me this page, which I was not aware of. Question: Let $(X_1,X_2)$ be a multivariate normal random vector ($X_1$ and $X_2$ need not be ...
7
votes
4answers
16k views

What are some examples of non-financial risks and contingency plans?

There are many online sources about common risk factors in investing and trading e.g. market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk. There are various factor models (Fama-French, Carhart) and risk ...
16
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2answers
552 views

How do macro funds manage risk and model asset returns? Do they use factor models?

Some of the largest funds in the world are entirely macro-based: Soros, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater. They trade across asset classes, and seemingly with very concentrated allocations. What type of risk ...
29
votes
5answers
2k views

What are the key risks to the quantitative strategy development process?

Prompted in part by this question on data snooping, I would be interested to know: What are the key risks that should be considered when developing a quantitative strategy based on: (a) historical ...
16
votes
6answers
4k views

How does the “risk-neutral pricing framework” work?

I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you? Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
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4answers
1k views

How are risk management practices applied to ML/AI-based automated trading systems

A potential issue with automated trading systems, that are based on Machine Learning (ML) and/or Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the difficulty of assessing the risk of a trade. An ML/AI algorithm ...