The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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3
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2answers
37 views

What to use as portfolio diversification measure?

Suppose that we have a portfolio of $n$ assets. A perfectly diversified portfolio is one in which each asset has equal weights, i.e. each asset has weight $\frac{1}{n}$. Of course this is usually not ...
1
vote
1answer
23 views

How to manage risk on a call calendar when underlying is falling

Let us say I bough a call calendar spread. Now, at expiry of the short option, the underlying has decreased significantly, and I am approaching my max loss(i.e both the options are close to 0). In ...
0
votes
3answers
331 views

How to create a model or formula for evaluating trade opportunities

I want to build a formula to produce a score for a potential trade based on 4 variables, time, return, liquidity of security, and probability of failure. For a set of potential trades I first ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Longevity risk modelling

What is Longevity risk, and how to model it under DC and DB pension plans? characters|characters|characters|characters|characters|
1
vote
2answers
48 views

comparing modified VaR to ordinary VaR

What inferences can one draw when given a modified VaR at x% confidence and an ordinary VaR at x% confidence level. If the two are equal one inference can be that returns are gaussian but that also ...
6
votes
1answer
278 views

Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
1
vote
1answer
154 views

What Matlab packages to I need as a Risk Analyst?

What toolbox are more suitable for a risk analyst. I found this: Optimization toolbox Global optimization toolbox Econometrics toolbox Financial toolbox Statistics toolbox And also I have as a ...
0
votes
1answer
31 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
0
votes
1answer
82 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
0
votes
1answer
139 views

How to projectP&L or drawdowns on pair trading , trading and portfolios?

This is for planning and risk management. I am stuck on the following thoughts - Back-test the trading strategy for a period similar to the one you expect and then project. Do the above using ...
9
votes
2answers
565 views

Links to the risk model methodologies of the major providers?

There is quite a bit of art in constructing an equity risk model. This paper summarizes some of the key decisions: choice of factors, horizon matching, cross-sectional vs. time-series method, and ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Fixed Income risk attribution in the historical simulation of a sovereign bond portfolio

We use historical simulation for risk analysis. I.e. for each bond there is a repricing of the form $$ P_j = PV(\text{yield curve in scenario } j), $$ where the yield curve is the zero rates curve of ...
-1
votes
1answer
56 views

conservative approach payoff table

With the conservative approach, we choose the decision which maximises minimum payoff. I was wondering which decision is chosen if 2 decisions have equal minimum payoff (which is the maximum)? ...
2
votes
1answer
58 views

Variability in the Expected Shortfall estimator

Are there any results for calculating the variability in the Expected Shortfall measure. I am looking for Large sample confidence intervals under Normality for Expected Shortfall or calculation of ...
1
vote
4answers
105 views

How to extrapolate VaR?

I have a model predicting 1-day VaR. How does 1-year VaR follow from it? Shall I just multiply by 365 or another method?
1
vote
0answers
55 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Solvency Problem for Financial Institutions

According to my finance lecture, the motivation for risk measures is grounded in the solvency problem: Risk measures are used to determine the amount of capital to avoid insolvency of the financial ...
0
votes
1answer
83 views

Index creation from multiple time-series and variable weights

I am trying to compose one index out of several (three) indices with variable weights, 50%, 25% and 25%. After normalizing and calculating the log returns, what would be the best way to create the ...
5
votes
7answers
32k views

How to calculate unsystematic risk?

We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
0
votes
0answers
49 views

risk report factor exposures calculations

I am looking at a risk report which I have inherited. There are 5 lines of code that I want to make sure I understand. The risk report breaks down the exposures, contribution to variance and marginal ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views
5
votes
4answers
466 views

Is there anyone still using Markowitz modern portfolio theory?

I was reading about the MPT (Use standard deviation as risk measure) on "Mathematics for Finance by Marek Capinski". I was just wondering is there anyone actually applying this theory to their ...
0
votes
0answers
6 views

Institutional compliance : is reference data available via the browser?

That is, assuming one has the correct accounts and credentials, is it possible to access reference data (counterparty, trading, and other categories of related meta-data) over the web? The reason I ...
3
votes
3answers
139 views

Capital Allocation for Portfolio of Multi-Strategy and Multi-Instrument

I would like to know if there is a way (or theory) to manage a multi-strategy, multi-instruments portfolio that would calculate the optimal weight to allocate capital for each combination of strategy ...
0
votes
2answers
71 views

Question 1.18 from Hull's Financial Risk management CAPM

A portfolio manager maintains an active portfolio with beta of 0.2. Risk-free rate is 5% The market return for a particular year is -30% The fund produced a result of -10%. He claimed the return was ...
2
votes
0answers
67 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
1
vote
0answers
17 views

Standard errors clustered along the time dimension in pooled panel logit model

I'm trying to estimate a logit model on pooled panel data set (unit of observation is firm-year). My dependant variable is default indicator and I have several macro variables as independant ...
1
vote
1answer
164 views

Estimate correlation of time series whose histories differ in length

Very often in quantitative analysis (e.g. calculating portfolio volatility) we have to analyze various time series - mostly returns - whose lenghts differ. Risk systems usually apply a one-factor ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
4
votes
1answer
128 views

questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why the following figure plots it as ...
3
votes
2answers
3k views

Risk Parity portfolio construction

If I would like to construct a fully invested long only portfolio with two asset classes (Bonds $B$ and Stocks $S$) based on the concept of 'risk parity' the weights $W$ of my portfolio would be the ...
-1
votes
1answer
72 views

Math basics of Equally-weighted Risk contributions

i'm writing my BA Thesis about "Equally-weighted Risk contributions". Can anyone recommend math books for further understanding of Risk contributions?
11
votes
2answers
1k views

Modelling with negative interest rates

For a project, I am interested to model the impact of recently negative interest bonds on the portfolio. The literature on modelling negative interest rates is limited, and the only theory I could ...
2
votes
1answer
560 views

How to distinguish total return and absolute return funds in the KIID

I hope this question is on-topic. It is not relally a quant question but it is a question that quants in risk management in asset management firms have to answer: In the KIID (key investor ...
0
votes
1answer
178 views

Controling ex-post volatility by ex-ante limits

In the context of mutual funds the KID directive forces us to calculate 5 year ex-post volatility of a (market) fund (weekly returns). Thus each week we look back in the past and calculate volatility ...
5
votes
1answer
222 views

How to build an electricity portfolio for an electricity production company?

I am referring to an electricity production company. Company is located in AsiaPac. The power is generated using Natural Gas fired combined-cycle power plants. Then this electricity is distributed to ...
31
votes
5answers
2k views

What are the key risks to the quantitative strategy development process?

Prompted in part by this question on data snooping, I would be interested to know: What are the key risks that should be considered when developing a quantitative strategy based on: (a) historical ...
18
votes
7answers
6k views

How does the “risk-neutral pricing framework” work?

I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you? Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
1
vote
1answer
347 views

Ex-Ante tracking error how to determine the look back period

I am looking to compare the ex-ante predictions against the post values. I am using a look back period of ranges from 1 year to 5 years to construct my covariance matrix that I am using for my ex-ante ...
0
votes
0answers
58 views

At what point does it make sense to start using a system?

This is an issue I've been struggling with for quite a while, and haven't found a satisfactory answer yet. The basic problem is this: Lets say you set up a black box system which gives you anywhere ...
4
votes
1answer
253 views

Liquidity diversification

The liquidity diversification can be measured by the liquidity score, defined here as the ratio between the pure market P&L CVaR and the market+liquidity P&L CVaR. I have tried to reproduce ...
6
votes
4answers
368 views

Large (5K-10K) non positive definite (particularly near singular) covariance matrices and treatments for Cholesky decomposition

I have a very large covariance matrix (around 10000x10000) of returns, which is constructed using a sample size of 1000 for 10000 variables. My goal is to perform a (good-looking) Cholesky ...
-3
votes
1answer
127 views

What's the disadvantage of ARMA-GARCH model?

I want to ask why ARMA-GARCH is more and more popolar, and what's the advantage of this model.
1
vote
2answers
99 views

Controlling portfolio concentration

I'm working with a heterogenous basket of instruments (in volatility terms). Risk parity allocation seems to be useful for the portfolio( * 1/Volatility). However, there are times when the ...
0
votes
0answers
58 views

Minimum PD under Basel II retail asset?

I have been told that under Basel II the minimum PD that one can assign to any portfolio/segment classified under the retail asset class is 0.33%. But Google searches return nothing and I can't seem ...
1
vote
0answers
157 views

regarding Basel III IRB method for credit risk

Would the exposures between standard method and internal rating based method for credit risk under Basel III remain same?I could not find any documents for IRB approach under Basel III. Is it still ...
11
votes
1answer
3k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
1
vote
2answers
267 views

Is it wrong to use 'real world' probabilities for option valuation?

Is it wrong to use 'real world' probabilities for option valuation, even when the market is not liquid enough to delta hedge the option? My instinct is that it is wrong, because the time value of ...