The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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6
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1answer
152 views

How to perform risk budgeting for non-linear portfolios?

I am using this question to compute optimal weights following a risk budgeting approach. The problem is I am using non-linear portfolios (options,equity,fixed income,fx). What I am looking for is ...
2
votes
1answer
99 views

ES not elicitable

Expected Shortfall is not elicitable as some papers have pointed out. That simply means that there is no scoring function that elicits ES. My question is, does this imply that Expected Shortfall ...
1
vote
1answer
124 views

CDS spread scenarios from historical market data

I'm searching for information on the best way to generate scenarios to be used in VaR or ES calculations, for CDS spreads. Given that we need significant historical data in order to achieve a decent ...
1
vote
1answer
146 views

Currency risk USD>EUR>EGP

Seeking input on hedging risk on USD to Euro with a 3rd component of payroll issued in Egyptian Pounds. We are a US corp invoicing a Germany entity in Euro with massive payroll being paid in Egyptian ...
8
votes
0answers
708 views

Examples of Spectral Risk Measures

Let's take the usual definition of a spectral risk measure. If we look at the integral we see that spectral risk measures have the property that the risk measure of a random variable $X$ can be ...
3
votes
0answers
54 views

subadditivity of VaR

It is known that the VaR (Value at risk) doesn't fulfill subadditivity, i.e. $VaR(X)+VaR(Y) \le VaR(X+Y)$ But for elliptical distributions subadditivity is true. Questions: (1) Which ...
3
votes
0answers
93 views

Non-parametric estimator - CVAR / Expected shortfall

Is the estimation of the CVAR using known non-parametric methods (histogram , kernels) is different than the estimation of any other R.V.? If the answer is yes, then I am interested to know whether ...
3
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0answers
55 views

Modelling the Cost of Risk

I would like to read something about the cost of risk. Could anyone recommend some reference about how it is calculated or modelled?
3
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0answers
30 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
3
votes
0answers
159 views

Quantitative risk management strategy for a large participant in an illiquid market

Are there any practical quantitative risk management strategies for a large participant in an illiquid market with a few dominant players? By a large partcipant I mean someone who has significant ...
2
votes
0answers
54 views

Leverage and Drawdown

What are the risks of deleveraging a leveraged long/short equity portfolio when going into a drawdown at certain drawdown stops, like deleveraging by 30% when breaching a -5% drawdown, deleveraging a ...
2
votes
0answers
30 views

In May of 2005, several large hedge funds had speculative positions in CDO tranches

These hedge funds were forced into bankruptcy. This was due to: the correct answer is: Long Mezzanine and Short Equity Tranche position when correlation of Mezzanine tranche decreased. Can anyone ...
2
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0answers
42 views

Want to understand the links and relationship between all the risk metrics?

For Example : if Risk weighted asset (RWA) increased or decreased this month, which other risk metrics could have influenced RWA to increase or decrease. Also in different situations like, upward ...
2
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0answers
204 views

Modified duration in multi-currency portfolio

I was thinking about how to figure aut duration for portfolio of bonds denominated in different currencies… I would like to compare sensitivity of portfolio to shift of yield with competitive ...
2
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0answers
115 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
2
votes
0answers
113 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
2
votes
0answers
213 views

regarding Basel III IRB method for credit risk

Would the exposures between standard method and internal rating based method for credit risk under Basel III remain same?I could not find any documents for IRB approach under Basel III. Is it still ...
1
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0answers
45 views

(Reproducible example) Conditional returns in GARCH-EVT-Copula context (with R)

I'm estimating a time-varying correlation matrix for the normal copula using the rmgarch package from R. I've found this code in the rmgarch.tests folder. I use the ...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

Liquidity horizons of risk factors categories

I'm reading the consultative document of the BCBS on the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs265.pdf Table 2 on page 16 shows the liquidity horizons for 5 broad risk ...
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0answers
128 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
1
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0answers
22 views

Methodologies behind shocking a composite index instrument, what assumption distinguishes these?

Suppose I have a composite index (rebalancing or non-rebalancing) that at present time has some base value $B_{\text{base}}$ in some base economy. I am in the process of shocking the economy on which ...
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0answers
44 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
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0answers
16 views

Why use Moody's KMV EDF for one year

If I were to use Moody's KMV proprietary database with expected default frequqncies(EDF) for sectors and countries, along with aggregations for financials and non-financials, significant banks etc: ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

Vol surface changes as underlying moves

We market make in highly liquid, near term options markets. I want to build a risk report that tells us how our portfolio's greeks will change as the underlying moves. This is for risk management in ...
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0answers
32 views

Commercial Vendors for Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization and Performance Attribution

So this question is directly about companies such as Axioma, Barra, Northfield, and etc. that provide risk management, portfolio optimization, and performance attribution related services. I want to ...
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0answers
117 views

How to calculate break-even point of merged plant/company?

The question goes like this : ...
1
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0answers
17 views

Multiple similar values simulation

Perhaps some of you came across the following task that I am trying to automate for @RISK, VOSE or other simulation software? I have a question as we are trying to use the software to estimate the ...
1
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0answers
93 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
1
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0answers
242 views

How to calculate global exposure via commitment approach for FX swaps?

How would you calculate global exposure for FX swaps using the commitment approach? In particular, would you take into account both legs? CESR guidelines (CESR/10-788) defines that the exposure for ...
1
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0answers
132 views

Fixed Income risk attribution in the historical simulation of a sovereign bond portfolio

We use historical simulation for risk analysis. I.e. for each bond there is a repricing of the form $$ P_j = PV(\text{yield curve in scenario } j), $$ where the yield curve is the zero rates curve of ...
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0answers
151 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
1
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0answers
20 views

Standard errors clustered along the time dimension in pooled panel logit model

I'm trying to estimate a logit model on pooled panel data set (unit of observation is firm-year). My dependant variable is default indicator and I have several macro variables as independant variables....
1
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0answers
38 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
1
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0answers
54 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
1
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0answers
97 views

How to show that the risk contribution function is or is not injective?

Assume a portoflio $w \in \mathbb{R}^n$, you can get the total risk contribution $\psi_i$ of asset $i$ by doing: $$\psi_i = w_i \frac{\partial \sigma(w)}{\partial w_i}= \frac{1}{\sigma(w)} \left[ w_i^...
1
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0answers
176 views

Market Exposure and Hedging

Normally the Market exposure associated with your stock/portfolio is your delta for that stock/ portfolio. Basic idea of hedging involved here is buying/selling respective futures depending upon ...
0
votes
0answers
11 views

Reference for risk conributions of fund-of-funds relative to blended benchmarks

I am looking for a reference for the attribution of relative risk of a fund-of-fund compared to a blended benchmark. I am aware of decomposition into asset allocation decisions and stock selection ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

help with p&L vectors historical simulation

My question is about the calculation of the Value at Risk based on historical simulation. I have a table which contains the P&L-vectors of each day of one year. But I don't know what is contained ...
0
votes
0answers
34 views

Estimate Option Price Given X% Move N Days in the Future

I was wondering if someone could recommend a method to estimate the price of an option N days from now given an X% move in the underlying. I have fitted a volatility surface but where I am running ...
0
votes
0answers
45 views

Coherent Risk Measures and VaR

I am working on a problem that is worded exactly as follows: Consider the functions $\rho_{1}$ and $\rho_{2}$, defined on the space of random variables with finite expected value in the following way ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

How to attribute the PL dollar impact of change in basis for cross currency basis swaps

I have a portfolio of foreign bonds that were hedged using fixed to floating interest rate swaps and then converted back to domestic currency via cross currency basis swaps. How do I calculate the P&...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Standardized and Advanced IRB together

Is it possible to use Standardized approach and AIRB together for the same asset class? For example sovereigns see a risk weight of 0% if AAA, but in AIRB they might not be seeing 0 weight. Is it ok ...
0
votes
0answers
78 views

Large deviations theory and extreme value theory

I'll enter into details of both, sooner or later, but for the moment I'm concerned about the differences (and relationships, if any) between these two theories. Can someone give me a brief, but still ...
0
votes
0answers
32 views

Portfolio Analytic Metrics for Portfolios with Serially Correlated Returns

I just read Andrew Lo's paper from 2002 "The Statistics of Sharpe Ratios" and am wondering if anyone knows of any other papers/docs/resources that explore the impact of serially correlated returns on ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Portfolio construction for signals of varying time scales?

Wondering if anyone is aware of any research on combining/portfolio construction of signals on different time scales. For example, if I have a trading signal (alpha) that generates trades every hour ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Lambda in RiskMetrics for fixed income

What is the default lambda proposed in RiskMetrics for fixed income?
0
votes
0answers
45 views

Value at risk computation for a diffusion process

Given a hypothetical process $X_{t}$ defined by : $$ X_{t} = \int_0^t b_{s} ds + \int_0^t W_{s} ds + \sum_{i=1}^{N_{t}} \gamma_{T_{i}} Y_{i}$$ $ W_{t}$ is a standard brownian motion, $b_{t} ,\gamma_{...
0
votes
0answers
69 views

how best to equalize individual pair risk in a portfolio of stock pairs?

I am building a portfolio of stock pairs in which each pair is individually hedged via beta/hedge ratio adjustment. I am looking for a method to ensure that I am taking the same risk in each pair that ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Performance analysis for a changing portfolio

I am trying to do a performance analysis of an investment in five different funds (A to E). I am investing a fixed amount at each fund (say 10m in A, 20m in B, 10m in C, 20m in D, 10m in E) but the ...
0
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0answers
197 views

continuous dividend yield - european option

Can someone help with following task? You need to use a 5-period forward binomial model to price options, which is constructed by specifying the up and down moves as follows: u = exp {(r − δ) · h + ...