The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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2
votes
2answers
86 views

Meaning of conservative in risk management?

I believe this question is best asked here, as it pertains to risk, rather than English SE. What is the meaning of conservative in the context of risk management? In general, conservative would mean ...
0
votes
2answers
49 views

What risks is an exchange exposed to?

Putting aside operational/reputational/business risks for a minute, a financial institution is concerned with the risk of losing money on their positions. What about an exchange ? I can only think of ...
1
vote
1answer
79 views

CVA using difference between 2 counterparty's spreads

The approximation to calculate CVA as a spread is $CVA = Spread * Expected$ $Exposure$. I assume this means the counterparty's spread over a proxy for the risk free rate such as LIBOR or OIS. Is this ...
8
votes
9answers
60k views

How to calculate unsystematic risk?

We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
2
votes
1answer
36 views

efficient portfolio with given risk

Is there a formula to derive an efficient portfolio to maximise the return, x'mu, for a given risk, x'S x (where x are the portfolio coefficients, mu is the mean return for each asset and S is the var-...
3
votes
1answer
199 views

Is marginal probability of default the same as conditional probability of default?

I'm thrown off by the term marginal probability of default. I've seen it defined by some authors as synonymous term for conditional probability of default conditional probability of default: ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Credit risk terms differences:

What are the differences between these terms: Contingent Credit Exposure Exposure profiles, Settlement Exposure, Negotiable Paper Exposure. Many thanks!
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Cumulative vs marginal probability of default

I understood the cumulative (aka unconditional) probability of default to be the probability of defaulting in a given period eg: between years 1 and 5. Further $\pi_{cumulative} = 1-e^{-\lambda*t}$ ...
2
votes
1answer
61 views

Calculating probability of default with no recovery

Given two methods to calculate the 1 year conditional probability of default of a zero coupon bond, I've come up with slightly different but close results. From my approaches below, is it reasonable ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Lambda in RiskMetrics for fixed income

What is the default lambda proposed in RiskMetrics for fixed income?
0
votes
1answer
140 views

Calculating expected shortfall

I'm trying to calculate the expected shortfall for the below scenario. I don't understand why the 1.04% probability of 0 bonds defaulting is used as a weight when calculating ES, since the binomial ...
2
votes
1answer
291 views

What are the pros and cons of historial and Gaussian approaches to VaR?

What is the difference between historical and Gaussian method of VaR estimation? I know how they are calculated, but what are the pros and cons of each?
2
votes
0answers
28 views

How does risk attitude influence trading? (Bibliography seeking)

I wonder how risk-averse or risk-seeking investors behave in a stock market. Is there any bibliography that deals with that? For example, suppose that we have a risk-averse investor that buys a ...
-1
votes
1answer
119 views

Where can I find data source for structural models?

I am starting a project to implement the Black-Merton-Scholes model from this book in R. However, I am looking for, ideally free, data sources. Still I have access to a Bloomberg terminal. Can you ...
0
votes
0answers
55 views

How to fit a copula to empirical data?

There are numerous types of Copulas one can choose to fit empirical data. My question is wow to select the 'best' copula to fit the data. More specifically, let's assume empirical data $f(x_1,y_1)f(...
3
votes
0answers
137 views

What is the difference between gross and net enterprise wide risk?

Reading a Basel paper on recommendations on internal economic capital models. One of the recommendations says members of the bank's board should be able to demonstrate understanding of the difference ...
1
vote
4answers
129 views

What is wrong with this argument?

Futures trading in stock index gives leverage. Leverage cuts both ways. It can give you huge pct gains or wipe you out. Typically stock index futures for the major markets have limited daily pct ...
10
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the basis risk between cash and futures government bonds?

I am currently working in a team responsible for maintaining a simple risk application for our bond desk and I am interested in knowing how to provide some sort of basic basis risk metric. Our desk ...
1
vote
2answers
133 views

How are we underestimating liquidity risk?

Malz explains that marking to model can underestimate liquidity risk. From his example, I don't see it. I can see us underestimating market risk because we are using an incorrect price. Why does a ...
3
votes
1answer
38 views

What is the date of reserve (operational risk)

One of the BCBS papers on operational risk says the following: Consistent with other operational risk losses, a bank should use a date no later than the date of reserve for including legal ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Using a hybrid approach to calculate operational risk capital

I've read that a hybrid approach combing scenario analysis and loss distribution analysis can be used to calculate operational risk capital under the advanced models approach. I've read a couple ways ...
3
votes
2answers
60 views

Can Economic Capital cover Regulatory Capital?

If economic capital is set by the institution to cover unexpected loss (given a confidence level) and regulatory capital is set by the regulator, can one "absorb" the other? For example, if I ...
2
votes
1answer
133 views

A little help with the Single Factor model for credit risk

I'm studying the "single factor model" in Malz text "Financial Risk Management - Models, History and Institutions". He only refers to it as such and gives it no proper name. The model: $a_{i} = \...
8
votes
4answers
582 views

How to treat large (5K-10K) non-positive-definite (particularly near-singular) covariance matrices for Cholesky decomposition?

I have a very large covariance matrix (around 10000x10000) of returns, which is constructed using a sample size of 1000 for 10000 variables. My goal is to perform a (good-looking) Cholesky ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Why is credit exposure higher for a smaller probability of default than for a larger default?

I'm having trouble grasping this concept; I don't see the relevance of the explanation given in the text (Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and CVA) either. When expected exposure and probability of ...
0
votes
3answers
65 views

What information should be delivered to the client so they have enough information to manage their exchange rate risks? [closed]

The client can be a CFO or CEO. The information can indicators, charts, graphs, statistics, ratios, etc. I know the VaR is one of them.
2
votes
1answer
83 views

Is credit exposure conditional on default?

Credit exposure defines the loss in the event of a counterparty defaulting, and expected exposure is the average of all credit exposures. BUT When adjusting the CVA calculation to account for wrong-...
0
votes
1answer
233 views

Why can't marginal CVA be used in pricing?

"Marginal CVA may be useful to breakdown a CVA for any number of netted trades into trade-level contributions that sum to the total CVA. Whilst it might not be used for pricing new transactions (due ...
2
votes
1answer
220 views

Risk neutral drift vs real world

I was of the understanding that risk neutral drift was always the risk free rate. A section from Gregory's book on Credit Value Adjustment seems to say risk neutral drifts are typically estimated from ...
7
votes
1answer
197 views

How does rehypothecation cause systemic risk?

I've read in many places that rehypothecation causes systemic risk (not to be confused with systematic risk), but none offer an explanation. Is this because of the daisy-chain effect that would happen ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Cross-sectional moments

I got a seminar topic named Forecasting risk from cross sectional moments? Could at least someone tell me what should I write about and if there is any paper that I could read. Thank you very much in ...
9
votes
6answers
1k views

Do binary options make any sense?

Reading from "www.nadex.com" - the copy reads "Binaries are similar to traditional options but with one key difference: their final settlement value will be 0 or 100. This means your maximum risk and ...
4
votes
2answers
128 views

Estimating an appropriate haircut for illiquid stocks

I am trying to determine an appropriate haircut for a basket of illiquid stocks that barely traded during the year. Can someone suggest me an approach to estimate the risk? My dataset has a lot of ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

Rebucketing Risk using PCA/other methods

was working on a project and could use some help. New to the community and looking fwd to being an active part of it. My question is, let's say we have a vector of securities V, and it trades with ...
0
votes
0answers
65 views

how best to equalize individual pair risk in a portfolio of stock pairs?

I am building a portfolio of stock pairs in which each pair is individually hedged via beta/hedge ratio adjustment. I am looking for a method to ensure that I am taking the same risk in each pair that ...
1
vote
2answers
251 views

Semi-variance/Downside Risk, what about the rest of the covariance matrix?

I just bumped into a rather interesting article from wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downside_risk where they define the semi-variance also called Downside risk, which bascially only ...
1
vote
0answers
101 views

GARCH filtering and extreme value theory

We are evaluating a model for risk management based on extreme value theory using peaks over threshold and markov chain monte carlo methods. In doing this, we are firstly fitting a GARCH (we have ...
2
votes
1answer
71 views

How to measure the volatility of illiquid bond with no historical prices

The basket of corporate bonds that I am following barely traded after the issuance. Hence, there is no historical data to estimate the volatility. Can you suggest me a different approach to come up ...
0
votes
1answer
245 views

Factoring risk premium in to Forward Rate calculation

This is a self study question. I'm calculating a forward rate. Specifically, I have that in a country X, the Spot Rate is 5X/1US. I also have that the 1 year interest rate is 13% in country X and ...
0
votes
3answers
126 views

To currency hedge or not to currency hedge (ETFs)?

When is it preferable to use a currency hedged ETF over a none currency hedged ETF? There has been studies which have shown over the longer term currency hedging does not make a difference. "...
0
votes
1answer
67 views

calculating portfolio volatility [closed]

Given: vector of portfolio weights $W = [w_1 w_1 ]$ correlation matrix $C = \left( \begin{array}{ccc} a & b \\ d & e \end{array} \right) $ standard deviation of the asset returns $S = [s_1 ...
5
votes
1answer
448 views

Definition of risk factors for market risk scenario testing

I am doing a research for stress testing in market risk. The usual process I found out for scenario testing is: Define risk factors upon the portfolio Define the desired scenarios Vary the risk ...
3
votes
0answers
30 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
4
votes
1answer
967 views

Why using the swap curve as riskfree rate and no longer gov bonds?

I recently had an interview where I was asked what to use as risk-free rate. In all my textbooks it was always the US treasury yield curve. But they said no its now the "swap curve". Why is the swap ...
3
votes
1answer
278 views

Which is the better risk sensitive measure?

Consider the two following optimization problem 1) $$ \min_{\theta} \ln E_{\theta}[ e^{X}]$$ 2) $$ \min_{\theta} E_{\theta}[ X]$$ with the constraint $$ Var_{\theta}[X] <c$$ Is it true that ...
7
votes
3answers
234 views

New ways of communicating risk

One of the scapegoats of the financial crisis was value at risk. Still communicating risks effectively to clients is a big challenge and hugely important (also to keep your job as a quant!) In this ...
5
votes
2answers
249 views

Impact on bid/offer due to volume/size of trades placed

When observing bid/offer in the market I came across a question. How much trading a bond would impact its spread for subsequent trades ie. what is the impact on bid/offer due to volume/size of ...
3
votes
2answers
388 views

Why is that a risk averse consumer buys the optimum insurance when there is actuarially fair insurance?

I think I understand the fact that when marginal utilities of the same function are equal (a consequence of the actuarially fair insurance), the independent variables in it must be equal -- right? But ...
0
votes
1answer
72 views

Expected Utility and $\log$

I've just started reading about expected utility and utility functions and have the following question. $\textbf{Question:}$ An investor has an initial wealth of 100 and a utility function of the ...
1
vote
1answer
171 views

Markowitz portfolio optimization question

I am studying the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory, and I just wanted to ask if I understood this correctly. For a stock portfolio we distinguish two kinds of risks: an unsystematic risk, which ...