The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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2
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1answer
231 views

Which measure to determine Risk?

Say I hold an equity and I want to calculate the Value-at-Risk over some period. Would one calculate the Value-at-Risk of the equity under a risk-neutral (as in martingale) measure or under the ...
3
votes
1answer
127 views

Optimal Choice of exceeding time

Suppose you hold a share from company $Z$ whose vaue at time $t$ is $S_0+\sigma B_t$ where $B_t$ is Brownian Motion and $\sigma$ denotes some volatility. Now lets assume that company $Z$ may go ...
3
votes
1answer
422 views

Long-term vs short-term strategies \ investing

Suppose most investors have very short investing horizons and use appropriate (for them) strategies, but investor X has a very long horizon. He would like to trade some advantages (early withdrawal ...
1
vote
1answer
197 views

Portfolio risk decreased by increasing share of riskiest asset?

In Parker's The Economics of Entrepreneurship he explains how certain theoretical models predict seemingly bizzare things (e.g. people becoming more risk-averse resulting in them taking riskier jobs) ...
3
votes
1answer
204 views

Risk and Reward in practice

My question is a bit philosophical. As a risk manager I often have to tell portfolio managers to reduce risk (e.g. due to VaR limits or exposure limits). Then usually the discussion arises that if ...
0
votes
1answer
196 views

Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?

Many discretionary traders swear by risk-reward ratio, as in "The minimum risk-reward ratio for a Forex trade is 1:2." Do quantative traders use risk-to-reward ratio as well? If so, how do you ...
0
votes
1answer
304 views

Risk-free investment strategy for european call and put option

I have some trouble solving the following question: We have an european call and put option (with the same maturity date $T$ en strike $E=10$). The stock price now is $S=11$ and we use a continuous ...
9
votes
3answers
611 views

better estimator of volatility for small samples

One commonly used sample estimator of volatility is the standard deviation of the log returns. It is indeed a very good estimator (unbiased, ...) when the sample is large. But I don't like it for ...
7
votes
2answers
627 views

How to manage equity portfolio risk intraday?

Lets assume that I have an equity strategy that generates signals intraday to buy and sell. I run this strategy across the SP500 names. Now within my strategy I want to incorporate a method to help me ...
8
votes
1answer
515 views

Fama-French 3-factor model: factors implying risk

The Fama-French three-factor risk model is given by $$ r=R_f+\beta_m(K_m-R_f) + \beta_s\cdot\mathit{SMB}+\beta_v\cdot\mathit{HML}+\alpha $$ where $r$ is the return, $R_f$ is the risk-free rate, $K_m$ ...
6
votes
0answers
382 views

Examples of Spectral Risk Measures

Let's take the usual definition of a spectral risk measure. If we look at the integral we see that spectral risk measures have the property that the risk measure of a random variable $X$ can be ...
0
votes
1answer
82 views

Plain vanilla risk parity with trends forecasting power

I have built an asset allocation model (plain vanilla risk parity) but I would like to adapt the initial asset allocation with respect to potential futures changes in the trends of the assets under ...
6
votes
0answers
159 views

Extreme Value Theory possible for portfolios with options?

Say you have a portfolio with long exposure to a few linear assets (stock indices) and short exposure to a nonlinear asset (say call options on one of the linear assets). I am interested in ...
1
vote
1answer
290 views

Additive portfolio risk decomposition

In his paper Budgeting and Monitoring the Risk of Defined Benefit Pension Funds, Bill Sharpe writes: [...] the sum of the weighted marginal risks of the portfolio components will equal twice the ...
0
votes
1answer
105 views

Asynchronous Data Across Time Zones - RiskMetrics

I'm currently involved with a project to integrate RiskMetrics into our business and one issue we've identified is the treatment of market data timing across time zones. This can have the effect of ...
6
votes
1answer
432 views

Calculating VaR/CVaR on high frequency data and returns

As we converge on the minute time scale and below for our unit time interval, the return distributions tend to be leptokurtotic and more discretized (due to fixed values such as minimum price ...
1
vote
1answer
165 views

reinsurance pricing equivalent to option pricing

Is it true that pricing a reinsurance contact is equivalent to pricing an option. Basically a reinsurance just cuts off the risk exposure of the insured institution to a threshold say $K$. So if we ...
4
votes
2answers
206 views

What is the significance of Relative Risk Aversion

I know that the relative risk aversion is defined as $$R(c) = cA(c)=\frac{-cu''(c)}{u'(c)}$$ where $u(c)$ denotes the utility curve as a function of wealth $c$. But I do not understand the intuition ...
3
votes
0answers
268 views

Definition of risk factors for market risk scenario testing

I am doing a research for stress testing in market risk. The usual process I found out for scenario testing is: Define risk factors upon the portfolio Define the desired scenarios Vary the risk ...
2
votes
0answers
232 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
3
votes
3answers
277 views

Risk prediction based on financial statements

I have a profit loss statement and balance sheet with the following fields: Example P&L Turnover420,363 - Cost of sales £118,730 £140,169 - Gross Profit ...
4
votes
1answer
145 views

Estimating investor's utility from the trades data

Is it possible to infer investor's utility function from the set of decisions she is making? Let's assume for simplicity that the market consists of a single traded asset whose return distribution is ...
6
votes
5answers
670 views

Indicators and research for stress-based investment strategies

In reference to this paper: Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? and the investable UBS Risk Adjusted Dynamic Alpha Strategy: ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

Why using 3 months forward to hedge fx risk on a fund of funds portfolio?

In my previous job, a fund of funds, they used 3 months forward FX contracts (renewed every 3 months) to protect their portfolio against currency risk. If I do understand why forwards are useful for ...
4
votes
7answers
1k views

Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?

I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics: Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling Any pointers ...
3
votes
1answer
520 views

Risk-free rate for ex-post evaluation of investment strategy

When evaluating the strategy ex-post using e.g. Sharpe ratio, what should one use as the risk-free rate? Let's suppose I am using a 1Y sample of weekly returns, sampled between 2012-01-01 and ...
2
votes
1answer
125 views

Hedging differences between equity and index options?

Suppose we hedge an index option using futures on that index. How would the hedging strategy be different if the underlying could be traded directly (from a risk point of view)?
2
votes
0answers
92 views

Benchmarking risk

Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
2
votes
2answers
193 views

Portfolio risk-return when assets have limited and inconsistent historical data / time series?

Lets say we have "today's" snapshot of asset allocation and need to determine the 6mo, 1 yr and 5 yr risk and returns of this portfolio. If the time series for every asset is very long, longer than ...
6
votes
0answers
206 views

Optimization procedure for entropy pooling

I was wondering if those who used the entropy pooling code provided by Attilio Meucci had issues with the optimization procedure (especially regarding the fminunc function in Matlab). When I stress ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Conditional or unconditional volatility?

I am reading a paper (reference below) that states "The conditional volatility for each underlying security (or for a market index) can be estimated using the standard deviation of the stock’s ...
1
vote
1answer
208 views

Regression giving the return on a stock

I have this regression equation: $$ R_{stock} = 3,28\% + 1,65*R_{market} $$ Where $R_{stock}$ is the expected return on a stock and $R_{market}$ being the market risk premium. I have a one-year ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Computing the Sharpe Ratio

The building blocks of the Sharpe ratio—expected returns and volatilities—are unknown quantities that must be estimated statistically and are subject to estimation error. The main problem I have is ...
4
votes
1answer
211 views

Are there any well known methods of testing through-the-cycle rating systems?

Rating systems, as defined by the Basel II Accord, can be classified into two broad types - through-the-cycle (TTC) or point-in-time (PIT) - and the probability of default predicted by such a system ...
3
votes
1answer
86 views

Is this comment right about subadditivity?

I found this comment in a book I bought about risk management: Risk Management in Banking by Joel Bessis. This is the well-known rule that states that the sum of individual risks is less than ...
7
votes
4answers
20k views

What are some examples of non-financial risks and contingency plans?

There are many online sources about common risk factors in investing and trading e.g. market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk. There are various factor models (Fama-French, Carhart) and risk ...
10
votes
3answers
221 views

Does entropy pooling apply to distributions with time-varying drift?

I have a returns process that is drawn from a normal distribution with a nonlinear time-varying drift, so I was wondering if the entropy pooling method still applies or if I need an invariant ?
6
votes
1answer
1k views

How can I use Entropy-pooling of Atillio Meucci to constuct a portfolio?

I am trying to get my hands on Entropy Pooling which was introduced by Meucci in this paper. As an example, assume I want to construct a portfolio with five stocks and I have my view on CVaR. How ...
-4
votes
1answer
629 views

Show that convexity of call price as a function of the strike is violated [closed]

European call options with strikes 90, 100 and 110 on the same underlying asset and with the same maturity are trading for 22.50, 18.84 and 13.97 respectively. show that the convexity of the call ...
2
votes
1answer
543 views

Is it possible to derive the “risk tolerance” from the portfolio efficient frontier?

I am trying to solve the Portfolio Optimization Problem using a "Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm". After obtaining the efficient frontier, I would like to know if we can infer for each point of ...
1
vote
1answer
322 views

Why does $\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ of a factor model measure risk?

$\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ from the market model: $R_{it} - \hat{\alpha} - \hat{\beta}R_{mt} = \hat{\epsilon}$, or from a factor model such as the Fama-French 3 factor model, is often used in the ...
3
votes
1answer
145 views

How do I model risks for specific short-term short calls in a portfolio with limited data?

I'm trying to do some risk analysis on a portfolio of bonds, currency, stocks and short calls. The short calls expire in approximately 15-30 days and I've only got around 20 days of pricing data on ...
1
vote
0answers
193 views

Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue

I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community. Question Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

Drawdown calculation for strategies

I am developing a trading strategy for currencies. I am trying to find an indication for risk, something like Sharpe ratio or Sterling ration; for that, I thought of using the (maximum) drawdown ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views

Is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) coherent?

When the risk is defined by a discrete random variable, is CVaR a coherent risk measure? I stick to the following definition of CVaR: $$ CVaR_\alpha(R) = \min_v \quad \left\{ v + \frac{1}{1-\alpha} ...
6
votes
1answer
372 views

What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?

Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns. Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
10
votes
4answers
2k views

What is a “coherent” risk measure?

What is a coherent risk measure, and why do we care? Can you give a simple example of a coherent risk measure as opposed to a non-coherent one, and the problems that a coherent measure addresses in ...
3
votes
3answers
414 views

Why should there be an equity risk premium?

After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks. I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
9
votes
4answers
1k views

Is the risk-free rate really limited by inflation?

In all the classic texts on equities derivatives, there is an assumption of the risk-free rate r. We can immediately dismiss the concept of a fixed rate; all interest rates are variable (and ...