The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.
4
votes
1answer
325 views
How to model the risk of a CFD
I'm struggling to understand why the risk on an equity CFD is not the same as for the corresponding equity. The RiskMetrics FAQ mentions two ways to model a CFD, but it does not explain why this is ...
3
votes
2answers
605 views
Covariance for arbitrarily large portfolios
I am implementing a method in Java to calculate the variance, covariance, and value at risk for a portfolio, which should be flexible for use with any number of assets in a portfolio. I am struggling ...
3
votes
5answers
850 views
Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?
I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics:
Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk
Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling
Any pointers ...
3
votes
2answers
10k views
How to calculate unsystematic risk?
We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
3
votes
1answer
121 views
How do I model risks for specific short-term short calls in a portfolio with limited data?
I'm trying to do some risk analysis on a portfolio of bonds, currency, stocks and short calls. The short calls expire in approximately 15-30 days and I've only got around 20 days of pricing data on ...
3
votes
2answers
322 views
Computing the Sharpe Ratio
The building blocks of the Sharpe ratio—expected returns and volatilities—are unknown quantities that must be estimated statistically and are subject to estimation error.
The main problem I have is ...
3
votes
1answer
64 views
Is this comment right about subadditivity?
I found this comment in a book I bought about risk management: Risk Management in Banking by Joel Bessis.
This is the well-known rule that states that the sum of individual
risks is less than ...
3
votes
1answer
73 views
Risk-free rate for ex-post evaluation of investment strategy
When evaluating the strategy ex-post using e.g. Sharpe ratio, what should one use as the risk-free rate? Let's suppose I am using a 1Y sample of weekly returns, sampled between 2012-01-01 and ...
2
votes
5answers
636 views
Do binary options make any sense?
Reading from "www.nadex.com" - the copy reads "Binaries are similar to traditional options but with one key difference: their final settlement value will be 0 or 100. This means your maximum risk and ...
2
votes
3answers
277 views
Why should there be an equity risk premium?
After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks.
I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
2
votes
1answer
182 views
Picking from two correlated distributions
Can anyone provide a simple example of picking from two distributions, such that the two generated time series give a specified value of Pearson's correlation coefficient? I would like to do this in ...
2
votes
1answer
315 views
Is it possible to derive the “risk tolerance” from the portfolio efficient frontier?
I am trying to solve the Portfolio Optimization Problem using a "Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm". After obtaining the efficient frontier, I would like to know if we can infer for each point of ...
2
votes
1answer
438 views
Drawdown calculation for strategies
I am developing a trading strategy for currencies. I am trying to find an indication for risk, something like Sharpe ratio or Sterling ration; for that, I thought of using the (maximum) drawdown ...
2
votes
1answer
83 views
Hedging differences between equity and index options?
Suppose we hedge an index option using futures on that index. How would the hedging strategy be different if the underlying could be traded directly (from a risk point of view)?
2
votes
2answers
98 views
Portfolio risk-return when assets have limited and inconsistent historical data / time series?
Lets say we have "today's" snapshot of asset allocation and need to determine the 6mo, 1 yr and 5 yr risk and returns of this portfolio. If the time series for every asset is very long, longer than ...
2
votes
0answers
78 views
Benchmarking risk
Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
2
votes
0answers
154 views
Gamma vs. Volatility Risk
Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk?
It leads me to ask:
- What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it?
Thinking about ...
2
votes
0answers
191 views
Long-term vs short-term strategies \ investing
Suppose most investors have very short investing horizons and use appropriate (for them) strategies, but investor X has a very long horizon. He would like to trade some advantages (early withdrawal ...
2
votes
0answers
366 views
How to Calculate Risk of Ruin [closed]
I'm reading a book titled "A Trader's Money Management System" and it discusses risk of ruin(ROR) tables. It says that you can have a zero probability of ROR with a payoff ratio of 2 to 1 and a win ...
1
vote
1answer
165 views
Why does $\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ of a factor model measure risk?
$\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ from the market model: $R_{it} - \hat{\alpha} - \hat{\beta}R_{mt} = \hat{\epsilon}$, or from a factor model such as the Fama-French 3 factor model, is often used in the ...
1
vote
1answer
127 views
Regression giving the return on a stock
I have this regression equation:
$$
R_{stock} = 3,28\% + 1,65*R_{market}
$$
Where $R_{stock}$ is the expected return on a stock and $R_{market}$ being the market risk premium.
I have a one-year ...
1
vote
0answers
98 views
Unsystematic/Idiosyncratic/Firm-specific volatility/variance in the market model?
I was asked to use idiosyncratic volatility as a regressor in a cross-sectional regression upon cross-sectional returns as the dependent variable. Returns can be thought of as the raw log stock return ...
1
vote
0answers
111 views
Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue
I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community.
Question
Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" ...
1
vote
0answers
158 views
How would I calculate a stop on a pair trade? [closed]
I have a trading strategy that I use on single tickers. I'd like to start using it with pairs as well. However, I'm somewhat math challenged and not sure how to best calculate the stops of the ...
0
votes
0answers
93 views
¿How does the model from “Noise trader risk in finantial markets” paper work?
I have been struggling in understanding how the author of this paper got to his conclusions. I uploaded an image of a fragment of this paper. The model is a simple 2 agent, a sophisticated investor ...
0
votes
0answers
108 views
fraud discovery [closed]
I hate to muddy this board with low level intellect and competence but is it feasible to create a program that can scan the 'National Student Clearinghouse" for academic accuracy and all regulatory ...
0
votes
0answers
35 views
Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]
Possible Duplicate:
How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?
Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
-4
votes
1answer
135 views
Show that convexity of call price as a function of the strike is violated [closed]
European call options with strikes 90, 100 and 110 on the same underlying asset and with the same maturity are trading for 22.50, 18.84 and 13.97 respectively. show that the convexity of the call ...
-4
votes
0answers
39 views
Comparing Investments: Selling land vs. starting a business [closed]
I have a situation where I need to compare some investing alternatives.
We and my partners own a piece of land with high commercial value, that was bought 7 years ago. Now the real estate market ...
