The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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1answer
70 views

Why normalize only data for CDSs for PCA?

I'm reading a Credit Suisse Research Report on PCA. The report says that to preprocess the data, you should "Centre data (and normalize when considering CDS data)." Why would you only normalize ...
1
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2answers
289 views

What Matlab packages to I need as a Risk Analyst?

What toolbox are more suitable for a risk analyst. I found this: Optimization toolbox Global optimization toolbox Econometrics toolbox Financial toolbox Statistics toolbox And also I have as a ...
1
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1answer
121 views

What are the different Credit Portfolio Management models and what are their advantages?

CreditMetrics, RiskMetrics(Algorithims), etc. are all different risk methodologies used by many banks. However, what are their advantages/disadvantages? I would appreciate your replies!
0
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1answer
493 views

Portfolio optimzation : efficient frontier with respect to risk aversion parameter with R

I am currently trying to write a little script in R to determine the optimal weights given a fixed risk aversion parameter. The problem I have is that by increasing the risk aversion parameter I think ...
16
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4answers
4k views

What is a “coherent” risk measure?

What is a coherent risk measure, and why do we care? Can you give a simple example of a coherent risk measure as opposed to a non-coherent one, and the problems that a coherent measure addresses in ...
3
votes
1answer
267 views

Portfolio choice problem of a CARA investor with n risky assets

Ok, I am working on a problem that consists of the following: I am looking to solve the portfolio choice optimization problem (maximizing utility with a known utility function) in the case where all ...
1
vote
1answer
128 views

What is the difference between these two Expected Shortfall definitions?

I have come across different ways expected shortfall is defined. e.g. $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{1-a}\int_a^1VaR_b(X)db$$ and $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{a}\int_0^aVaR_b(X)db$$ e.g. on Wikipedia's article. Are these ...
0
votes
1answer
208 views

Convert a call spread to a butterfly to mitigate risk

I do not have a source for this (apologies), but sometimes, I hear about option traders initiating a vertical spread(short) and then converting that call spread to a butterfly spread to mitigate risk. ...
3
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1answer
74 views

Longevity risk modelling

What is Longevity risk, and how to model it under DC and DB pension plans? characters|characters|characters|characters|characters|
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2answers
310 views

quantiative risk measure how they are implemented in R and their use

So far I have just theoretical knowledge of risk measure and never used them in application. Therefore I have some basic question how risk measures are used in reality and how they are implemented in ...
1
vote
1answer
184 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
1
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1answer
56 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
1
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1answer
116 views

Does DV01 grow proportionally to portfolio?

I'm having trouble understanding DV01 convention. From what I understand it stands for "Dollar value of 1 basis point." For instance, if I have a bond with DV01 = 0.05, does a portfolio composed of ...
1
vote
1answer
282 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
3
votes
1answer
237 views

Constant Relative Risk Aversion

The question: Consider a person with constant relative risk aversion p. (a) Suppose the person has wealth of 100,000 and faces a gamble in which he wins or loses x with equal probabilities. ...
1
vote
0answers
48 views

Comparing cost of two alternative given their distribution

I have distribution for cost of two alternative through Monte Carlo simulation. The distributions are not normal. Given the benefit of the two alternatives is the same but ungiven, I want to choose ...
1
vote
1answer
280 views

Which sports are generally the best for trading on betting exchanges for a profit?

I am looking at trading bets on tennis, football and horse racing in particular as these appear to have the most liquidity. How much background research and how much trial and error is generally ...
0
votes
3answers
379 views

Parametric/Analytical VaR

Suppose I want to calculate VaR for a known distribution with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ and $\alpha$-quantile as, $VaR_{\alpha}$ = $\mu + \sigma q_{\alpha}$. For a Gaussian distribution it is ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

Variability in the Expected Shortfall estimator

Are there any results for calculating the variability in the Expected Shortfall measure. I am looking for Large sample confidence intervals under Normality for Expected Shortfall or calculation of ...
1
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0answers
146 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Where can I find a list of VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions?

Where can I find more VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions? I collected a list here:
2
votes
1answer
56 views

What are the properties of the Expected Shortall measure when split in multiple time periods?

Suppose I have a single time series of losses $L$ that consists of two sub-parts $L_1$ and $L_2$. Is there a relationship that relates the expected shortfall of $L$ to the expected shortfall of $L_1, ...
6
votes
4answers
820 views

Is there anyone still using Markowitz modern portfolio theory?

I was reading about the MPT (Use standard deviation as risk measure) on "Mathematics for Finance by Marek Capinski". I was just wondering is there anyone actually applying this theory to their ...
0
votes
1answer
310 views

CAPM (SML) Problem

I got 1.3636 for beta for the problem below(165/121). But I became so unsure about the answer when I solved (c) because then the market risk becomes larger than the variance of Stock A. ...
3
votes
9answers
662 views

Why would there be a positive risk-free rate?

Most financial models include a risk-free rate or risk-free asset. Why should there be such thing as a positive risk-free rate? I dont see why an asset would provide a positive (real) return if it ...
1
vote
1answer
52 views

Hedging using relative values

Consider I have two stocks $A$ and $B$, $A$ is trading at $\$40$ and $B$ at $\$30$. The standard deviation of its returns are $\sigma_A=25\%$ and $\sigma_B = 30\%$. Correlation between the returns is ...
2
votes
0answers
107 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
1
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0answers
58 views

how to find CVaR/AVaR for triangular fuzzy no

While going through different methods of risk measure i came across AVaR/CVaR, while i was calculating AVaR/CVaR in credibilistic environment using VaR, i got stuck in the calculations eg. For ...
8
votes
3answers
3k views

Gamma vs. Volatility Risk

Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk? It leads me to ask: - What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it? Thinking about ...
2
votes
4answers
442 views

Implementing A 50/50 Prediction Model Strategy

Reworded the question for clarity (see edits for original post): How can one knowingly foresee where a 50/50 prediction model will be profitable? For previous posts: I understand that if I have a ...
1
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0answers
38 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
2
votes
0answers
41 views

Formal Proof of Immunization Techniqu

Please correct me if I am wrong in understanding the Immunisation Technique behind bond interest rate risk management. It says that any change in interest rate can be neutralised by reinvesting the ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
0
votes
0answers
608 views

Difference between “basic risk” and “basis risk”

Returning to Futures contracts, basic risk refers to the risk remaining after the hedge has been put in place and essentially represents the difference between the Futures price – should the ...
4
votes
1answer
177 views

questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why the following figure plots it as ...
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votes
1answer
94 views

Math basics of Equally-weighted Risk contributions

i'm writing my BA Thesis about "Equally-weighted Risk contributions". Can anyone recommend math books for further understanding of Risk contributions?
16
votes
2answers
755 views

Concentration risk in credit portfolio

How do you model concentration risk of credit portfolio in IRB/Basel II framework?
7
votes
3answers
991 views

cointegration applied to Portfolio Construction & Risk management

There are all sorts of applications of cointegration to generating alpha on mean-reverting timeseries: comparing spot vs. futures, bond spreads, identifying mean-reverting residuals, etc. But there ...
1
vote
2answers
148 views

Basis Risk for Futures/Options

I am just reading about basis risk. It is being described as risk of the price of the hedging instrument not fluctuating the same as the instrument itself. I was just wondering, if we bought a ...
0
votes
1answer
871 views

Directional/Non-Directional Risk

Can someone explain to me what is direction/non-directional risk? Went through few sites but couldn't understand much.
1
vote
1answer
154 views

regarding Basel II III model

I may have to get involved in some projects using Basel II, III model for risk modeling, to which I have no background. Are there any good book/tutorials to recommend? What are the underlying ...
7
votes
4answers
2k views

What does it mean to modify the factor loadings of a credit risk model?

I came across an example where a well-known weakness of a credit risk model was dealt with by augmenting some of the existing risk factors via increased factor loadings. This made the the model more ...
21
votes
7answers
13k views

How does the “risk-neutral pricing framework” work?

I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you? Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
1
vote
1answer
645 views

Ex-Ante tracking error how to determine the look back period

I am looking to compare the ex-ante predictions against the post values. I am using a look back period of ranges from 1 year to 5 years to construct my covariance matrix that I am using for my ex-ante ...
11
votes
5answers
3k views

Why is the Drawdown measure not used for portfolio optimization?

I was asked yesterday by a colleague why we are doing asset allocation using optimizers which target, for a minimum expected return: the portfolio with the minimum variance or the portfolio with ...
2
votes
0answers
74 views

volume augmented garch(1,1) model in matlab

Actually I want to add volume traded of a stock in my Garch(1,1) model to forecast the volatility.In Matlab I can specify the model as garch(1,1) and then use estimate and forecast commands.But I am ...
4
votes
3answers
426 views

Why are factor models so popular for risk analysis of portfolios?

As titled, my question consists on asking for why in the most of academic papers one almost always finds that when you try to model asset returns, one needs to adjust for risk factors before analyzing ...
2
votes
1answer
733 views

Divergent or Convergent Strategies? Which is the way to go?

Consider first the simple convergent strategy to invest some amount $X$ in a game, if you win you simply take the winnings and keep playing a subsequent game. In the case of a loss, you believe in ...
23
votes
4answers
9k views

What is the best way to “fix” a covariance matrix that is not positive semi-definite?

I have a sample covariance matrix of S&P 500 security returns where the smallest k-th eigenvalues are negative and quite small (reflecting noise and some high correlations in the matrix). I am ...
2
votes
1answer
121 views

Is the volatility of a trader's wealth equal to the volatility of the underlying assets traded?

Assume that a trader trades in several stocks with different volatilities. The return of the trader's portfolio would be the weighted average of returns and the risk would be a function of the the ...