The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

2
votes
0answers
550 views

How to Calculate Risk of Ruin [closed]

I'm reading a book titled "A Trader's Money Management System" and it discusses risk of ruin(ROR) tables. It says that you can have a zero probability of ROR with a payoff ratio of 2 to 1 and a win ...
1
vote
1answer
381 views

Why does $\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ of a factor model measure risk?

$\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ from the market model: $R_{it} - \hat{\alpha} - \hat{\beta}R_{mt} = \hat{\epsilon}$, or from a factor model such as the Fama-French 3 factor model, is often used in the ...
1
vote
1answer
79 views

What is the difference between these two Expected Shortfall definitions?

I have come across different ways expected shortfall is defined. e.g. $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{1-a}\int_a^1VaR_b(X)db$$ and $$ES_a(X)=\frac{1}{a}\int_0^aVaR_b(X)db$$ e.g. on Wikipedia's article. Are these ...
1
vote
2answers
256 views

What Matlab packages to I need as a Risk Analyst?

What toolbox are more suitable for a risk analyst. I found this: Optimization toolbox Global optimization toolbox Econometrics toolbox Financial toolbox Statistics toolbox And also I have as a ...
1
vote
2answers
229 views

Risk management of options

Your client would like to buy a digital call option. the digital call option pays the buyer in one years time (i.e at maturity ) N=1m SGD, if the SGD USD spot rate at maturity is above a prescribed ...
1
vote
1answer
202 views

Portfolio risk decreased by increasing share of riskiest asset?

In Parker's The Economics of Entrepreneurship he explains how certain theoretical models predict seemingly bizzare things (e.g. people becoming more risk-averse resulting in them taking riskier jobs) ...
1
vote
1answer
227 views

Regression giving the return on a stock

I have this regression equation: $$ R_{stock} = 3,28\% + 1,65*R_{market} $$ Where $R_{stock}$ is the expected return on a stock and $R_{market}$ being the market risk premium. I have a one-year ...
1
vote
1answer
367 views

Unsystematic/Idiosyncratic/Firm-specific volatility/variance in the market model?

I was asked to use idiosyncratic volatility as a regressor in a cross-sectional regression upon cross-sectional returns as the dependent variable. Returns can be thought of as the raw log stock return ...
1
vote
1answer
43 views

Why normalize only data for CDSs for PCA?

I'm reading a Credit Suisse Research Report on PCA. The report says that to preprocess the data, you should "Centre data (and normalize when considering CDS data)." Why would you only normalize ...
1
vote
1answer
150 views

Which sports are generally the best for trading on betting exchanges for a profit?

I am looking at trading bets on tennis, football and horse racing in particular as these appear to have the most liquidity. How much background research and how much trial and error is generally ...
1
vote
1answer
48 views

Hedging using relative values

Consider I have two stocks $A$ and $B$, $A$ is trading at $\$40$ and $B$ at $\$30$. The standard deviation of its returns are $\sigma_A=25\%$ and $\sigma_B = 30\%$. Correlation between the returns is ...
1
vote
1answer
103 views

regarding Basel II III model

I may have to get involved in some projects using Basel II, III model for risk modeling, to which I have no background. Are there any good book/tutorials to recommend? What are the underlying ...
1
vote
1answer
389 views

Ex-Ante tracking error how to determine the look back period

I am looking to compare the ex-ante predictions against the post values. I am using a look back period of ranges from 1 year to 5 years to construct my covariance matrix that I am using for my ex-ante ...
1
vote
1answer
301 views

Pre-trade evaluation and risk assessment of option trading strategies (in market practice)

When a trader gets conclusion of the volatility is being underestimated (via volatility cone or some other technology), actually there are multiple ways for his trading. (Let's assume the underlying ...
1
vote
1answer
189 views

Downside deviation

have any practitioners here worked with the downside deviation metric? I've looked a little into its concepts but wish to know its utility in practice (if any). Does it bring any value to risk ...
1
vote
1answer
346 views

Additive portfolio risk decomposition

In his paper Budgeting and Monitoring the Risk of Defined Benefit Pension Funds, Bill Sharpe writes: [...] the sum of the weighted marginal risks of the portfolio components will equal twice the ...
1
vote
1answer
178 views

reinsurance pricing equivalent to option pricing

Is it true that pricing a reinsurance contact is equivalent to pricing an option. Basically a reinsurance just cuts off the risk exposure of the insured institution to a threshold say $K$. So if we ...
1
vote
1answer
42 views

Semi-variance/Downside Risk, what about the rest of the covariance matrix?

I just bumped into a rather interesting article from wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downside_risk where they define the semi-variance also called Downside risk, which bascially only ...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

Comparing cost of two alternative given their distribution

I have distribution for cost of two alternative through Monte Carlo simulation. The distributions are not normal. Given the benefit of the two alternatives is the same but ungiven, I want to choose ...
1
vote
1answer
53 views

Longevity risk modelling

What is Longevity risk, and how to model it under DC and DB pension plans? characters|characters|characters|characters|characters|
1
vote
0answers
68 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

how to find CVaR/AVaR for triangular fuzzy no

While going through different methods of risk measure i came across AVaR/CVaR, while i was calculating AVaR/CVaR in credibilistic environment using VaR, i got stuck in the calculations eg. For ...
1
vote
1answer
213 views

Which is the better risk sensitive measure?

Consider the two following optimization problem 1) $$ \min_{\theta} \ln E_{\theta}[ e^{X}]$$ 2) $$ \min_{\theta} E_{\theta}[ X]$$ with the constraint $$ Var_{\theta}[X] <c$$ Is it true that ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
1
vote
0answers
45 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
1
vote
2answers
93 views

is there an accepted method for quantifying risk of inaccuracy of nascent trm systems?

Have a somewhat meta question here. I am part of a trading risk management implementation project. I also manage day to day risk reporting to management and the trading desks. Our implementation was ...
1
vote
2answers
101 views

Basis Risk for Futures/Options

I am just reading about basis risk. It is being described as risk of the price of the hedging instrument not fluctuating the same as the instrument itself. I was just wondering, if we bought a ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

volume augmented garch(1,1) model in matlab

Actually I want to add volume traded of a stock in my Garch(1,1) model to forecast the volatility.In Matlab I can specify the model as garch(1,1) and then use estimate and forecast commands.But I am ...
1
vote
1answer
256 views

ex ante tracking error correlation between funds

I have two portfolio's called Comb & Global. They both have the same investable universe lets says 3000 stocks & are measured against the same benchmark. So it is possible that both funds hold ...
1
vote
2answers
297 views

Why is that a risk averse consumer buys the optimum insurance when there is actuarially fair insurance?

I think I understand the fact that when marginal utilities of the same function are equal (a consequence of the actuarially fair insurance), the independent variables in it must be equal -- right? But ...
1
vote
0answers
169 views

regarding Basel III IRB method for credit risk

Would the exposures between standard method and internal rating based method for credit risk under Basel III remain same?I could not find any documents for IRB approach under Basel III. Is it still ...
1
vote
0answers
203 views

Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue

I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community. Question Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" ...
1
vote
0answers
243 views

How would I calculate a stop on a pair trade? [closed]

I have a trading strategy that I use on single tickers. I'd like to start using it with pairs as well. However, I'm somewhat math challenged and not sure how to best calculate the stops of the ...
0
votes
2answers
142 views

Sharpe Ratio and time spent in loss

Is it possible to express, given an annualized Sharpe Ratio value, what is an expected maximum/average time spent in a draw-down or something in this manner? E.g. with SR of 10, you'd expect to spend ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

What are good online resources for credit portfolio managers?

I am aware that this question is not the typical stackoverflow question, BUT I couldn`t find any site/forum/wiki, where credit portfolio managers hang out to share their experience and their methods. ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

Does DV01 grow proportionally to portfolio?

I'm having trouble understanding DV01 convention. From what I understand it stands for "Dollar value of 1 basis point." For instance, if I have a bond with DV01 = 0.05, does a portfolio composed of ...
0
votes
1answer
206 views

Is the risk-reward ratio considered in Quantitative Finance?

Many discretionary traders swear by risk-reward ratio, as in "The minimum risk-reward ratio for a Forex trade is 1:2." Do quantative traders use risk-to-reward ratio as well? If so, how do you ...
0
votes
1answer
126 views

Asynchronous Data Across Time Zones - RiskMetrics

I'm currently involved with a project to integrate RiskMetrics into our business and one issue we've identified is the treatment of market data timing across time zones. This can have the effect of ...
0
votes
1answer
107 views

Portfolio optimzation : efficient frontier with respect to risk aversion parameter with R

I am currently trying to write a little script in R to determine the optimal weights given a fixed risk aversion parameter. The problem I have is that by increasing the risk aversion parameter I think ...
0
votes
1answer
43 views

What are the different Credit Portfolio Management models and what are their advantages?

CreditMetrics, RiskMetrics(Algorithims), etc. are all different risk methodologies used by many banks. However, what are their advantages/disadvantages? I would appreciate your replies!
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Convert a call spread to a butterfly to mitigate risk

I do not have a source for this (apologies), but sometimes, I hear about option traders initiating a vertical spread(short) and then converting that call spread to a butterfly spread to mitigate risk. ...
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
0
votes
1answer
94 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
0
votes
3answers
169 views

Parametric/Analytical VaR

Suppose I want to calculate VaR for a known distribution with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ and $\alpha$-quantile as, $VaR_{\alpha}$ = $\mu + \sigma q_{\alpha}$. For a Gaussian distribution it is ...
0
votes
1answer
105 views

CAPM (SML) Problem

I got 1.3636 for beta for the problem below(165/121). But I became so unsure about the answer when I solved (c) because then the market risk becomes larger than the variance of Stock A. ...
0
votes
1answer
423 views

Directional/Non-Directional Risk

Can someone explain to me what is direction/non-directional risk? Went through few sites but couldn't understand much.
0
votes
1answer
125 views

What is the realized volatility's estimation error?

Given an estimation procedure and real data, how would one compute the mean squared error? What value represents the "true" realized volatility in the case of calculating the Mean Squared Error in ...
0
votes
1answer
90 views

Plain vanilla risk parity with trends forecasting power

I have built an asset allocation model (plain vanilla risk parity) but I would like to adapt the initial asset allocation with respect to potential futures changes in the trends of the assets under ...
0
votes
0answers
29 views

How to use the asset covariance matrix for risk analysis in excess returns equation

New here and I have a question that may be very basic but despite my research I cannot connect the dots. I would like to know how to connect the nxn asset covariance matrix for an efficient tangency ...