The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.
-4
votes
0answers
39 views
Comparing Investments: Selling land vs. starting a business [closed]
I have a situation where I need to compare some investing alternatives.
We and my partners own a piece of land with high commercial value, that was bought 7 years ago. Now the real estate market ...
3
votes
1answer
73 views
Risk-free rate for ex-post evaluation of investment strategy
When evaluating the strategy ex-post using e.g. Sharpe ratio, what should one use as the risk-free rate? Let's suppose I am using a 1Y sample of weekly returns, sampled between 2012-01-01 and ...
2
votes
1answer
83 views
Hedging differences between equity and index options?
Suppose we hedge an index option using futures on that index. How would the hedging strategy be different if the underlying could be traded directly (from a risk point of view)?
2
votes
0answers
78 views
Benchmarking risk
Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
2
votes
0answers
154 views
Gamma vs. Volatility Risk
Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk?
It leads me to ask:
- What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it?
Thinking about ...
2
votes
2answers
98 views
Portfolio risk-return when assets have limited and inconsistent historical data / time series?
Lets say we have "today's" snapshot of asset allocation and need to determine the 6mo, 1 yr and 5 yr risk and returns of this portfolio. If the time series for every asset is very long, longer than ...
13
votes
6answers
1k views
How does the “risk-neutral pricing framework” work?
I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you?
Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
6
votes
0answers
117 views
Optimization procedure for entropy pooling
I was wondering if those who used the entropy pooling code provided by Attilio Meucci had issues with the optimization procedure (especially regarding the fminunc function in Matlab). When I stress ...
6
votes
4answers
481 views
Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? Research and/or strategies
In reference to this paper:
Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?
and the investable UBS Risk Adjusted Dynamic Alpha Strategy:
...
6
votes
1answer
376 views
Conditional or unconditional volatility?
I am reading a paper (reference below) that states "The conditional volatility for each underlying security (or for a market index) can be estimated using the standard deviation of the stock’s ...
1
vote
1answer
127 views
Regression giving the return on a stock
I have this regression equation:
$$
R_{stock} = 3,28\% + 1,65*R_{market}
$$
Where $R_{stock}$ is the expected return on a stock and $R_{market}$ being the market risk premium.
I have a one-year ...
3
votes
2answers
323 views
Computing the Sharpe Ratio
The building blocks of the Sharpe ratio—expected returns and volatilities—are unknown quantities that must be estimated statistically and are subject to estimation error.
The main problem I have is ...
6
votes
0answers
198 views
Calculating VaR/CVaR on high frequency data and returns
As we converge on the minute time scale and below for our unit time interval, the return distributions tend to be leptokurtotic and more discretized (due to fixed values such as minimum price ...
4
votes
1answer
138 views
Are there any well known methods of testing through-the-cycle rating systems?
Rating systems, as defined by the Basel II Accord, can be classified into two broad types - through-the-cycle (TTC) or point-in-time (PIT) - and the probability of default predicted by such a system ...
3
votes
1answer
64 views
Is this comment right about subadditivity?
I found this comment in a book I bought about risk management: Risk Management in Banking by Joel Bessis.
This is the well-known rule that states that the sum of individual
risks is less than ...
7
votes
4answers
10k views
What are some examples of non-financial risks and contingency plans?
There are many online sources about common risk factors in investing and trading e.g. market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk. There are various factor models (Fama-French, Carhart) and risk ...
9
votes
3answers
192 views
Does entropy pooling apply to distributions with time-varying drift?
I have a returns process that is drawn from a normal distribution with a nonlinear time-varying drift, so I was wondering if the entropy pooling method still applies or if I need an invariant ?
6
votes
1answer
563 views
How can I use Entropy-pooling of Atillio Meucci to constuct a portfolio?
I am trying to get my hands on Entropy Pooling which was introduced by Meucci in this paper.
As an example, assume I want to construct a portfolio with five stocks and I have my view on CVaR.
How ...
2
votes
0answers
191 views
Long-term vs short-term strategies \ investing
Suppose most investors have very short investing horizons and use appropriate (for them) strategies, but investor X has a very long horizon. He would like to trade some advantages (early withdrawal ...
-4
votes
1answer
135 views
Show that convexity of call price as a function of the strike is violated [closed]
European call options with strikes 90, 100 and 110 on the same underlying asset and with the same maturity are trading for 22.50, 18.84 and 13.97 respectively. show that the convexity of the call ...
2
votes
1answer
315 views
Is it possible to derive the “risk tolerance” from the portfolio efficient frontier?
I am trying to solve the Portfolio Optimization Problem using a "Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm". After obtaining the efficient frontier, I would like to know if we can infer for each point of ...
1
vote
1answer
165 views
Why does $\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ of a factor model measure risk?
$\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ from the market model: $R_{it} - \hat{\alpha} - \hat{\beta}R_{mt} = \hat{\epsilon}$, or from a factor model such as the Fama-French 3 factor model, is often used in the ...
3
votes
1answer
121 views
How do I model risks for specific short-term short calls in a portfolio with limited data?
I'm trying to do some risk analysis on a portfolio of bonds, currency, stocks and short calls. The short calls expire in approximately 15-30 days and I've only got around 20 days of pricing data on ...
0
votes
0answers
93 views
¿How does the model from “Noise trader risk in finantial markets” paper work?
I have been struggling in understanding how the author of this paper got to his conclusions. I uploaded an image of a fragment of this paper. The model is a simple 2 agent, a sophisticated investor ...
1
vote
0answers
98 views
Unsystematic/Idiosyncratic/Firm-specific volatility/variance in the market model?
I was asked to use idiosyncratic volatility as a regressor in a cross-sectional regression upon cross-sectional returns as the dependent variable. Returns can be thought of as the raw log stock return ...
12
votes
2answers
547 views
Concentration risk in credit portfolio
How do you model concentration risk of credit portfolio in IRB/Basel II framework?
1
vote
0answers
111 views
Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue
I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community.
Question
Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" ...
0
votes
0answers
108 views
fraud discovery [closed]
I hate to muddy this board with low level intellect and competence but is it feasible to create a program that can scan the 'National Student Clearinghouse" for academic accuracy and all regulatory ...
2
votes
1answer
439 views
Drawdown calculation for strategies
I am developing a trading strategy for currencies. I am trying to find an indication for risk, something like Sharpe ratio or Sterling ration; for that, I thought of using the (maximum) drawdown ...
0
votes
0answers
35 views
Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]
Possible Duplicate:
How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?
Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
10
votes
3answers
768 views
Is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) coherent?
When the risk is defined by a discrete random variable, is CVaR a coherent risk measure? I stick to the following definition of CVaR:
$$ CVaR_\alpha(R) = \min_v \quad \left\{ v + \frac{1}{1-\alpha} ...
6
votes
1answer
300 views
What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?
Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns.
Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
10
votes
4answers
1k views
What is a “coherent” risk measure?
What is a coherent risk measure, and why do we care? Can you give a simple example of a coherent risk measure as opposed to a non-coherent one, and the problems that a coherent measure addresses in ...
6
votes
3answers
694 views
Why is the Drawdown measure not used for portfolio optimization?
I was asked yesterday by a colleague why we are doing asset allocation using optimizers which target, for a minimum expected return:
the portfolio with the minimum variance
or
the portfolio with ...
2
votes
3answers
277 views
Why should there be an equity risk premium?
After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks.
I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
3
votes
2answers
10k views
How to calculate unsystematic risk?
We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
9
votes
4answers
714 views
Is the risk-free rate really limited by inflation?
In all the classic texts on equities derivatives, there is an assumption of the risk-free rate r. We can immediately dismiss the concept of a fixed rate; all interest rates are variable (and ...
5
votes
2answers
423 views
cointegration applied to Portfolio Construction & Risk management
There are all sorts of applications of cointegration to generating alpha on mean-reverting timeseries: comparing spot vs. futures, bond spreads, identifying mean-reverting residuals, etc.
But there ...
8
votes
1answer
35 views
What are useful indexes for rapid evaluation of country economic risk?
The World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report offers a comprehensive view of individual country risk/reward. There has been an explosion of these types of indexes over the past few years.
...
14
votes
4answers
1k views
How are risk management practices applied to ML/AI-based automated trading systems
A potential issue with automated trading systems, that are based on Machine Learning (ML) and/or Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the difficulty of assessing the risk of a trade. An ML/AI algorithm ...
7
votes
2answers
403 views
How to manage equity portfolio risk intraday?
Lets assume that I have an equity strategy that generates signals intraday to buy and sell. I run this strategy across the SP500 names. Now within my strategy I want to incorporate a method to help me ...
3
votes
5answers
851 views
Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?
I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics:
Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk
Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling
Any pointers ...
4
votes
1answer
738 views
Performance Attribution : Annualizing alpha & factor return contributions
Let's say I have a factor model which I am using for Performance Attribution. I'd like to separate returns from alpha vs. returns from exposure to various risk factors.
For each date, the factor ...
9
votes
1answer
383 views
How are Expected Shortfall and Variance related?
I would like to know how Expected Shortfall $SF_\alpha$ and variance $\sigma^2$ are related.
If I follow what Aaron Brown answered in this post, when the underlying distribution is Normal with ...
9
votes
2answers
453 views
What is the relationship between risk aversion and preference for skewness and kurtosis in portfolio optimization?
Is there any relationship between the risk aversion coefficient in an individual's utility function (commonly used in portfolio optimization) and the preference for higher moments such as skewness and ...
5
votes
1answer
131 views
Are there quantitative models which can guide one's choice of target risk?
Note: This question was written for the weekly topic challenge.
Many asset allocation funds presume the investor knows his target risk level, typically on some spectrum from conservative (mostly G7 ...
7
votes
2answers
849 views
How to apply risk-parity portfolio construction to a dollar-neutral portfolio?
Long-only risk-parity portfolios have proliferated in recent years. An optimized long-only risk-parity portfolio requires that the asset weight * marginal contribution to risk of the asset is ...
9
votes
1answer
312 views
Models for measuring insurance risk exposure
I've recently begun working as a quant for a large bank, and one of my first tasks will be to improve the model determining the risk exposure of their insurance portfolio. The portfolio is fairly ...
13
votes
3answers
3k views
What is the best way to “fix” a covariance matrix that is not positive semi-definite?
I have a sample covariance matrix of S&P 500 security returns where the smallest k-th eigenvalues are negative and quite small (reflecting noise and some high correlations in the matrix).
I am ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views
What does it mean to modify the factor loadings of a credit risk model?
I came across an example where a well-known weakness of a credit risk model was dealt with by augmenting some of the existing risk factors via increased factor loadings. This made the the model more ...
