The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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5
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2answers
136 views

Where to find good notations to teach investment portfolio maths?

I don't know whether this question is in order here. I do a bit of teaching and I am preparing my own notes but I thought that his should not be necessary. In which book/pdf on the web can we find a ...
0
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1answer
32 views

How to determine portion of portfolio's risks from components?

Say I have a portfolio of 3 stocks $A,B,C$ with $\mu_A = 5%$, $\mu_B = 10%$, $\mu_C = 15%$ and volatility $\sigma_A = 10%$, $\sigma_B = 15%$, and $\sigma_C = 25%$. Let us also say that correlations ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

Adding negative EV position to portfolio for diversification?

Say I have a portfolio of expected return $10%$ and volatility $20%%. If I have another asset that is either: Negatively correlated Positively correlated Uncorrelated With negative expected return ...
4
votes
3answers
549 views

Why should there be an equity risk premium?

After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks. I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
0
votes
1answer
17 views

Why is the Risk Free Rate 1 over Contingent Claim Prices?

Reading Asset Pricing by John Cochrane (2005), in his second chapter he defines the risk free rate as: Rf = 1 / sum [pc(s)] Where pc(s) are state contingent claims, where s is the state of nature ...
2
votes
2answers
816 views

ex ante tracking error correlation between funds

I have two portfolio's called Comb & Global. They both have the same investable universe lets says 3000 stocks & are measured against the same benchmark. So it is possible that both funds hold ...
1
vote
1answer
194 views

how can we know the residual return will be uncorrelated with the market return

I was reading that if we know a portfolios beta we can break the excess return on that portfolio into a market component and a residual component. ...
1
vote
0answers
31 views

calculating long short portfolios currency exposure

I have calculated the currency exposures of a long short portfolio simply by summing the weights of each stock. However I was told that I need to incorporate the dollar borrowing (short dollars), I ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

Non-contractual accounts behavioural study

I need to carry a non-contractual accounts behavoiural study for a bank. The objective is to estimate core/non core ratios and then bucket and ftp them. Any recipe where to start? I have 3yrs of ...
3
votes
3answers
61 views

Are smart beta and risk parity the same?

So from what I have been reading online, smart beta ETFs aim to use a different type of weighting (instead of by market cap as traditional ETFs like SPY do to track an index) to achieve positive ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

given someone's past investing history, is there a way to calculate his risk aversion?

given someone's past investing history, is there a way to calculate his risk aversion? Say, we know this client's investment history for example his past return, is there a way to calculate his risk ...
2
votes
4answers
176 views

Bond portfolio hedging against currency risk

How do I hedge a bond portfolio against currency risk? Ideally I'm looking for books or other references on this topic.
1
vote
1answer
61 views

What are the some good measures of risk for options?

I've seen a number of measures of risk in my reading: Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, etc. In CAPM there is Beta, and I've seen papers discussing how to modify CAPM for asymmetry. There is Value at Risk and ...
1
vote
1answer
72 views

ES not elicitable

Expected Shortfall is not elicitable as some papers have pointed out. That simply means that there is no scoring function that elicits ES. My question is, does this imply that Expected Shortfall ...
5
votes
4answers
619 views

Could we have prevented the World Economic Crisis in 2008?

There is an expression - "Too big to fall." - which means that if a bank or a financial institution manages a sufficient part of the financial assets than the state can't afford that this bank or ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
0
votes
1answer
43 views

Bilateral Counterparty risk

Why do counterparty risk pricing adjustments need be considered in a bilateral counterparty risk perspective? Thanks
0
votes
3answers
101 views

What assets other than bonds are risk free?

I saw a question the other day that said Assume you have only two assets to build a portfolio. Name and explain three scenarios under which a completely risk-free portfolio can be formed? I ...
4
votes
3answers
169 views

Why are investors risk-averse?

In CAPM, we assume people are risk-averse and people get compensated for the systematic risk they suffer. The assumption that most people are risk-averse makes sense, but why are the rational ...
1
vote
1answer
33 views

Calculate total risk [closed]

I have a question regarding how the risk is calculated, if I have only the returns. I think the risk premium (rp) is just the average of the returns and the sharpe ratio is the risk premium divided ...
4
votes
1answer
78 views

How does RAROC identify capital requirements?

I've read that RAROC is used to set economic capital requirements for different products, projects, business lines etc. Is it just a matter of solving for the required economic capital level to ...
3
votes
0answers
90 views

Non-parametric estimator - CVAR / Expected shortfall

Is the estimation of the CVAR using known non-parametric methods (histogram , kernels) is different than the estimation of any other R.V.? If the answer is yes, then I am interested to know whether ...
1
vote
3answers
125 views

Appropriate measure of risk if return are not normally distributed

Normally standard deviation of an assets is used as an proxy for the risk in the financial market. In reality distribution of return is more peaked at the center and higher mass in the tail as ...
0
votes
0answers
11 views

Standardized and Advanced IRB together

Is it possible to use Standardized approach and AIRB together for the same asset class? For example sovereigns see a risk weight of 0% if AAA, but in AIRB they might not be seeing 0 weight. Is it ok ...
3
votes
2answers
156 views

Dollar-Neutral Strategy

Here is an excerpt from E. Chan's book Quantitative Trading, However, if the strategy is a long-short dollar-neutral strategy (i.e., the portfolio holds long and short positions with equal ...
3
votes
1answer
105 views

Spectral and distortion risk measures

Is there any difference between the spectral and distortion risk measure? Or is it just a different name for the same kind of risk measure?
20
votes
3answers
990 views

How are distributions for tail risk measures estimated in practice?

Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape ...
3
votes
2answers
100 views

Mathematical definitioln of Potential Future Exposure

I have come across a risk measure called "Potential Future Exposure" and I have not really understood the meaning of it. Knowing that this has to do with counterparty credit risk, I read different ...
35
votes
9answers
3k views

Lévy alpha-stable distribution and modelling of stock prices.

Since Mandelbrot, Fama and others have performed seminal work on the topic, it has been suspected that stock price fluctuations can be more appropriately modeled using Lévy alpha-stable distrbutions ...
0
votes
1answer
83 views

Is Value-at-Risk translation invariant?

Let: $X=V_1-V_0R_0$ where $R_0$ is the interest rate. Then, is it so that this risk measure is Translation Invariant as: ...
0
votes
1answer
55 views

What are “risk” or “risk numbers?”

I work in finance but do not have any formal education in the subject (I do have a PhD, but not in finance). I've picked up a lot of the jargon but there's one thing that I haven't figured out, and it ...
2
votes
1answer
74 views

Option analysis

Assume zero dividend and that the strike price for a European call option on a stock at a fixed maturity T and strike price K is given by C(K).Suppose that $C(K)=e^{-k}$ for all $K\geq 0$ ,then, I ...
1
vote
1answer
86 views

Calculate VaR for a liabilty taking a exponential distribution?

An insurance company faces the liability loss off $L = \begin{cases} 0, & \mbox{with probability } 0.75 \\ Z, & \mbox{with probability } 0.25\end{cases}$ where $Z\sim Exp(\mu)$. I want to ...
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Convex risk measure and a coherent risk measure?

A coherent risk measure is: $\rho(\lambda X_1+(1-\lambda X_2))$ How can it be shown that everey convex risk measure is indeed a coherent risk measure? I assume that it is enough to show that a ...
3
votes
2answers
97 views

Futures Parameters for Value at Risk

I am new to risk management. I am calculating the VaR for a portfolio of futures contracts, long and shorts. I calculated it using the historical, parametric, and ...
16
votes
1answer
512 views

performance of historical VaR parameters

An historical VaR measure is parameterized in terms of the confidence level and also number of periods. Specifically, the $\alpha$% T-period VaR is defined as the portfolio loss x in market value over ...
1
vote
1answer
260 views

Difference between Risk avoidance and Risk transfer

I was hoping some could explain the two terms namely, risk avoidance and risk transfer. Also, can a risk be avoided by transferring it?
3
votes
2answers
77 views

Finding Credit Risk Population Data

Are there any free or relatively cheap sources of aggregate data on credit risk for specific geographic regions, ages, and so on?
2
votes
2answers
72 views

Meaning of conservative in risk management?

I believe this question is best asked here, as it pertains to risk, rather than English SE. What is the meaning of conservative in the context of risk management? In general, conservative would mean ...
0
votes
2answers
49 views

What risks is an exchange exposed to?

Putting aside operational/reputational/business risks for a minute, a financial institution is concerned with the risk of losing money on their positions. What about an exchange ? I can only think of ...
1
vote
1answer
68 views

CVA using difference between 2 counterparty's spreads

The approximation to calculate CVA as a spread is $CVA = Spread * Expected$ $Exposure$. I assume this means the counterparty's spread over a proxy for the risk free rate such as LIBOR or OIS. Is this ...
8
votes
9answers
57k views

How to calculate unsystematic risk?

We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
2
votes
1answer
35 views

efficient portfolio with given risk

Is there a formula to derive an efficient portfolio to maximise the return, x'mu, for a given risk, x'S x (where x are the portfolio coefficients, mu is the mean return for each asset and S is the ...
2
votes
1answer
144 views

Is marginal probability of default the same as conditional probability of default?

I'm thrown off by the term marginal probability of default. I've seen it defined by some authors as synonymous term for conditional probability of default conditional probability of default: ...
0
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0answers
26 views

Credit risk terms differences:

What are the differences between these terms: Contingent Credit Exposure Exposure profiles, Settlement Exposure, Negotiable Paper Exposure. Many thanks!
1
vote
1answer
634 views

Cumulative vs marginal probability of default

I understood the cumulative (aka unconditional) probability of default to be the probability of defaulting in a given period eg: between years 1 and 5. Further $\pi_{cumulative} = 1-e^{-\lambda*t}$ ...
2
votes
1answer
54 views

Calculating probability of default with no recovery

Given two methods to calculate the 1 year conditional probability of default of a zero coupon bond, I've come up with slightly different but close results. From my approaches below, is it reasonable ...
0
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0answers
34 views

Lambda in RiskMetrics for fixed income

What is the default lambda proposed in RiskMetrics for fixed income?
0
votes
1answer
111 views

Calculating expected shortfall

I'm trying to calculate the expected shortfall for the below scenario. I don't understand why the 1.04% probability of 0 bonds defaulting is used as a weight when calculating ES, since the binomial ...
2
votes
1answer
215 views

What are the pros and cons of historial and Gaussian approaches to VaR?

What is the difference between historical and Gaussian method of VaR estimation? I know how they are calculated, but what are the pros and cons of each?