The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.
14
votes
4answers
1k views
How are risk management practices applied to ML/AI-based automated trading systems
A potential issue with automated trading systems, that are based on Machine Learning (ML) and/or Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the difficulty of assessing the risk of a trade. An ML/AI algorithm ...
8
votes
2answers
478 views
When should you build your own equity risk model?
Commercial risk models (e.g., Barra, Axioma, Barclays, Northfield) have evolved to a very high level of sophistication. However, all of these models attempt to solve a very broad set of problems. ...
29
votes
5answers
1k views
Lévy alpha-stable distribution and modelling of stock prices.
Since Mandelbrot, Fama and others have performed seminal work on the topic, it has been suspected that stock price fluctuations can be more appropriately modeled using Lévy alpha-stable distrbutions ...
14
votes
1answer
671 views
Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution
Let's say we have a predictive distribution of expected returns for N assets. The distribution is not normal. We can interpret the dispersion in the distribution as reflection of our uncertainty (or ...
9
votes
2answers
453 views
What is the relationship between risk aversion and preference for skewness and kurtosis in portfolio optimization?
Is there any relationship between the risk aversion coefficient in an individual's utility function (commonly used in portfolio optimization) and the preference for higher moments such as skewness and ...
4
votes
2answers
325 views
Choice of prior as a shrinkage target in portfolio construction?
There's various research showing how priors such as the minimum variance portfolio turn out to be a surprisingly effective shrinkage target in portfolio construction.
The sell point of these priors ...
8
votes
2answers
457 views
Minimizing Correlation
Is there a quantitative method in monitoring trades to reduce the possibility of correlated trades?
6
votes
4answers
481 views
Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? Research and/or strategies
In reference to this paper:
Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?
and the investable UBS Risk Adjusted Dynamic Alpha Strategy:
...
10
votes
1answer
259 views
What approaches are there for stress testing a portfolio?
Wikipedia lists three of them:
Extreme event: hypothesize the portfolio's return given the recurrence of a historical event. Current positions and risk exposures are combined with the historical ...
10
votes
4answers
1k views
What is a “coherent” risk measure?
What is a coherent risk measure, and why do we care? Can you give a simple example of a coherent risk measure as opposed to a non-coherent one, and the problems that a coherent measure addresses in ...
3
votes
5answers
850 views
Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?
I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics:
Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk
Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling
Any pointers ...
3
votes
2answers
10k views
How to calculate unsystematic risk?
We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
6
votes
1answer
300 views
What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?
Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns.
Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
2
votes
1answer
438 views
Drawdown calculation for strategies
I am developing a trading strategy for currencies. I am trying to find an indication for risk, something like Sharpe ratio or Sterling ration; for that, I thought of using the (maximum) drawdown ...
2
votes
3answers
276 views
Why should there be an equity risk premium?
After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks.
I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
