The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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1answer
56 views

To lump or not to lump

Suppose I have a very simple asset whose price takes only three possible values: $X_t\in \{-1,0,1\}$. I also got some discrete time series $X = (X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and I would like to come up with a ...
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0answers
17 views

How to calculate the standard deviation of a 'deviation from a moving average'?

Say I have a vector of daily price changes for an asset and calculate the standard deviation of returns in the usual way. Let's call this result A. Now assume that for the same asset I also have a ...
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0answers
32 views

Interpretation of Cointegration results, pValues and t-Stat

This is a follow up to: Cointegration results interpretation validation? I ran another Engel Granger Test on a pair, The results I get: ...
6
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4answers
189 views

What are the canonical books for statistics applied to finance?

I have some decent knowledge of probability, stochastic processes and option theory, however I do not have a proper background in statistics. Now I am working quite a lot with data, and trying ...
2
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1answer
35 views

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for Generalized Pareto Distribution

I've fitted my data to a generalized pareto distribution as to model the returns in the tails more accurately. The interior is fitted with kernel distributions. I would like to now test whether the ...
4
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3answers
199 views

How is stock data objectively different to this random walk?

I have a random walk that is generated as so using python, numpy, and matplotlib ...
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0answers
99 views

What machine learning method is more suitable for prediction of financial time series? [closed]

I have some time series from a stock exchange market. For each of them, I want to answer the question that whether the price will grow at least p percent in the d coming days or NOT(and during these ...
2
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0answers
50 views

seasonality and generalized additive model

I am reading a report which talks about seasonality. There is a chart showing the average returns for each month of the year. In the chart it appears the last 3 months of the year tend to be negative. ...
1
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1answer
91 views

detecting and measuring lead lag effect

Given two time series data. I remember there is one statistics that tells you one is the leading factor while the other is the lagging factor. However, i do not remember the exact details. correlation ...
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2answers
69 views

How to combine Gaussian marginals with Gaussian copula to obtain multivariate normals?

in the book "Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance" I red the following: "Combining the Gaussian copula with Gaussian marginal gives a fancy way of expressing multivariate normals. However, ...
2
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2answers
117 views

Predict Futures Prices based on weather + agricultural data

I’m working in the area of Data Mining and have come up with the following idea for my Masters project.The text may not be the best structured but it’s a working draft to give you a quick idea. ...
2
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2answers
49 views

Is this a reasonable approach to determine the relative importance of valuation factors?

I am trying to come up with a measure of relative importance of a number of valuation factors. I am wondering whether correlation coefficients can't be used for determining this. More on the issue: ...
2
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0answers
85 views

State Space models with Short Time Series

My problem is that I have a state space model that I estimate using the Berndt–Hall–Hall–Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. The state space model is relatively simple in that the hidden part follows a pure ...
3
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1answer
114 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
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0answers
37 views

How to value a portfolio of non-mature consumer loans?

I'm looking for the best way to value a portfolio of consumer loans that have NOT reached maturity and for which I do observe the payment/default history to date? I'm working with a large database of ...
2
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1answer
155 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
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0answers
96 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
0
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1answer
132 views

Book recommendation for time series analysis

I have been trying to wrap my head around Engel-Granger test and jcitest etc. I have failed thus far. If possible can someone guide me about which books to start with and possibly reach to ...
6
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2answers
272 views

Why are we obsessed over normalizing financial data?

I have recently began work on some high frequency financial tick data. I have been told to 'normalize' the data as much as possible and run linear regressions through them. In fact, the data doesn't ...
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4answers
545 views

Why shrink the covariance matrix?

I'm trying to understand why it's useful to shrink the covariance matrix for portfolio construction or in fact general. Think I missing something. I know if you have 5,000 stocks it's a lot of ...
3
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1answer
78 views

Properties of a Symmetric Copula

I am working with the following copula, and have a few questions about it: $C(x,y) = xy + \theta (1-x)(1-y)xy$ Here $\theta \in [-1,1]$ and $x,y \in [0,1]$ First, I am trying to show this copula is ...
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3answers
364 views

Calculate correlation between two sub portfolios and the combined portfolio

I have two sub portfolios (lets call them portfolio a & portfolio b - a portfolio is just a vector of weights that sum to 1) that combine to create a total portfolio. I also have a 2 x 2 ...
6
votes
2answers
248 views

Why do I have a statistically significant slope regressing R(t) on R(t-1)

I am reading Cochrane's lecture note here He mentioned that when you regress annual return on time t on that of time t-1, you will have neither statistically significant nor economically significant ...
2
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1answer
171 views

How to compare different volatility measures?

I read the Euan Sinclair's book (Volatility trading) in which he suggests different volatility estimators (Close-to-close, Parkinson, Garman-Klass, ...). I am inquiring about what is the best stock ...
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2answers
156 views

Use of geometric mean for average return of several indices

Can anyone give any reference for using the geometric mean to average the returns from several indices? Note, this question is not about the usual use of geometric mean to obtain the average return ...
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0answers
69 views

Sampling and/or asymptotic distribution of a function

Assume we have the following function: $$f(p) = \frac{1}{(1-p)d}\ln\left(\frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left[\frac{1+X_t}{1+Y_t} \right]^{1-p} \right)$$ where $d$ is a constant $T$ is a constant $X_t$ ...
3
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1answer
95 views

Summary statistic for the average probability of default?

I have the following scenario: Let $X_i$ denote the event where some institution $i$ 'defaults' (don't worry about the exact definition of a default here, it is not relevant to the question at hand). ...
5
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2answers
1k views

What are the econometric assumptions in the Fama-Macbeth procedure (1973)?

Fama-Macbeth (1973) introduce a two stage cross-sectional regression method (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fama%E2%80%93MacBeth_regression). 1) If I was to regress stock prices (or returns) on a ...
0
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1answer
128 views

Calculating the Sum of Squared Deviations between two Normalized Price Series

How can I calculate the sum of square deviations between two normalized price series according to (Gatev et. co 2006)? My normalized price series of stocks $X$ and $Y$ consist of the cumulative total ...
6
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2answers
220 views

Co-integration constraints of coint(X,Z) given coint(X,Y) and coint(Y,Z)?

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test can be used to measure how well ranked certain pairs are against others for co-integration. So then say we have a known co-integration between ...
3
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1answer
253 views

a good book on option pricing from theoretical and practical aspect

This is the situation someone I know is in: She has good understandings of stochastic calculus and the very basics about black-scholes and binomial model, but nothing more. Her background is in ...
3
votes
1answer
316 views

Normality assumption in Sharpe ratio

I have read that the Sharpe ratio imposes a normality assumption, but I fail to see how. Standard deviation is statistic for any type of distribution. Anyone have any ideas?
3
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3answers
310 views

Measuring historical earnings surprises, their frequency and severity

This is my first post to Quantitative Finance, so I hope my question is formatted the right way. I am starting to research the effects of earnings surprises on certain equity indices. Is there a ...
2
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0answers
116 views

Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
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1answer
160 views

Calculate the total returns from the total return index [closed]

I have the Total Return Index(RI) for several companies. I know that I can calculate the log retunrs with $ln(RI_t/RI_{t-1})$. Therefore my first guess would be to ...
2
votes
1answer
170 views

Are my estimates of parameters of geometric brownian motion correct?

I wrote a simulation of a geometric Brownian motion which works like this: ${ t }_{ i }-{ t }_{ i-1 } \sim Exp(\lambda )$ ${ Z }_{ i }\sim N(0,1)$ ${ Y }_{ i }\sim { e }^{ \sigma \sqrt { { t }_{ i ...
1
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1answer
336 views

Probability of a return from historical average and standard deviation

I have a question from a sample exam paper that I'm having some trouble figuring out. The question is: Bavarian Sausage stock has an average historical return of 16.3% and a standard deviation of ...
6
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0answers
141 views

Proving the asymptotic distribution of Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure (MPPM) (Paper by Goetzmann et al.)

In Goetzmann et al.'s (2007) paper, the authors derive a "Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure" (MPPM), which is a performance measure that is impervious to performance manipulation by fund ...
4
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2answers
416 views

Differential equation for log-returns

I have a question that might be trivial to most of you, but somehow I'm not able to solve it by myself. I have a disagreement with my colleague on the distributional properties of a Geometric Brownian ...
2
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0answers
284 views

Is this methodology to calculate Alpha using multi-factor regression model correct?

I am trying to find out Historical Alphas of a bunch of fund returns ${F_i}$ by Using Regression Model$(stepwise)$ with regressors as its underlying exposure-returns(risk-free rate subtracted) i.e. ...
3
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0answers
160 views

Should I use Resampling or Expectation Maximization to compute a robust covariance matrix?

I have several assets, each with different return histories. Some of the assets have 75 days of return history, others have 40 or so days. In calculating a robust covariance matrix, should I be using ...
2
votes
1answer
479 views

Monte Carlo Options Probability Calculation

I have a fairly simple problem for an application I am writing currently. How do you calculate the options probability of being in the money or touching a certain strike price. I know there are at ...
1
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2answers
657 views

Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis

Could anyone point me to detailed literature about "Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis"? Intuition, methodology and examples.. Thanks,
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2answers
162 views

Estimate weekly, yearly quantities from finite samples

I'd like to estimate from a daily prices serie $P_t$ with $N$ observations a quantity such as the variance of the weekly returns. I will use $\ln\left(\frac{P_{T+5}}{P_T}\right)$ assuming 5 days in a ...
0
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1answer
109 views

Calculating company-level market capitalisations from share quantities and values

I want to calculate company-level market cap values for stock exchanges listed by Bloomberg. I gather this can be calculated as the product of share price and the total of shares in circulation. But ...
4
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1answer
164 views

Statistical Power and Active Management

I was reading an article recently that pointed out the dangers of using statistical inference in evaluating active managers as the power of statistical tests diminishes with the variance of the ...
2
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0answers
240 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
0
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1answer
103 views

Analyst Forecasts for monthly unemployment rate

Are there any resources that tabulate past analyst forecasts for the monthly unemployment rate along with the dispersion of the forecasts
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244 views

Simple EOD computations for tick data

As part of End-Of-Day calculations once a particular market/exchange has closed for all the tickers traded on that market one may typically compute the following properties: OHLC Bid/Ask Price ...
3
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0answers
429 views

How to determine ratios for mean-reverting basket

Suppose I have a basket of 3 securities A, B, and C. I believe that the basket is cointegrated and I want to create a mean-reverting trade. I fit the model: ...