The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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1answer
64 views

How do you calculate P&L based on trade history? [on hold]

Given a series of trades Symbol,Quantity,Price,Side SPY,100,127,Buy SPY,87,125,Sell SPY,109,115,Sell SPY,122,95,Sell SPY,66,89,Buy SPY,101,175,Sell How do you ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views

Can you tell me what this RBloomberg formula means?

I've been asked to re-create a spreadsheet that used RBloomberg using a different data source. But I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what one of the spreadsheet's formulas does. Can anyone tell ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: ...
2
votes
1answer
33 views

What is the borne function mentioned in this paper?

On page 16, first paragraph of this paper, the authors introduce a function called "borne", which divides the normal distribution into n ranges of equal size, without citation. The definition is clear ...
-1
votes
1answer
37 views

Calculating or finding info about the value of a market? for example Cloud Storage [closed]

I am assembling a pitch which will aim towards investors by the end of this year/beginning of next year, and I need to gather information such as how much the Cloud Storage market is worth and how ...
3
votes
0answers
79 views

How to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio

Anyone have a clue how to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio? Let's say I want to compare the Relative strength for these: EWA iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund EWD ...
1
vote
1answer
51 views

How to identify the orders p and q for ARIMA model using least squares method?

I would like to identify the orders p and q for ARIMA model using least squares method in Matlab. I have got also two data files (one with noise and one without) Previously I identified p and q for ...
16
votes
5answers
1k views

Is R being replaced by Python at quant desks?

I know the title sounds a little extreme but I wonder whether R is phased out by a lot of quant desks at sell side banks as well as hedge funds in favor of Python. I get the impression that with ...
3
votes
3answers
148 views

References on Statistical Arbitrages

Is there any basic materials (books, papers) to read on Statistical Arbitrage? I certainly understand much of the useful information is in the industry. I just want to get some understanding on the ...
0
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0answers
16 views

Value of sequential mutually-exclusive options (A variant on the Secretary Problem)

How much should you offer a potential hire in a signing bonus? Imagine you are interviewing a list of candidates for a particular job. Each candidate has a "lifetime value", and probability of ...
2
votes
1answer
115 views

rollapply with Arima model: testing for stability of coefficients

I am trying to fit an arima model on a rolling window using rollapply.My aim is to plot a graph of the evolution of the coefficient, plot the error and the standard deviation. well i encountered the ...
0
votes
0answers
33 views

Interpreting Johansen co integration test

I am a little new to econometrics. Please pardon me for this silly question. I was running a Johansen cointegration test on two time series using the econometrics toolbox provided by James LeSage for ...
3
votes
1answer
120 views

Covariance structure of call option surface

Assume the observed call option prices $C(K_i,T_i)$ for $i = 1,\dots,N$ are disturbed by some unknown measurement noise $\epsilon$. What would an appropriate covariance structure be for $\epsilon$? ...
0
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0answers
77 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
2
votes
1answer
87 views

How to account for correlation between strategies when they are added linearly?

There are n strategies which are going to be combined linearly. Using a pre-exisiting model I get a set of n weights which will be used to combine the strategies. But the model does not take ...
1
vote
1answer
186 views

using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
3
votes
1answer
96 views

Fitting transition matrices in R by solving for coefficient

I'm using various matrices to impute a fitted transition matrix for credit ratings by solving for a variable [S]. Essentially the idea is to determine a base matrix and stress matrix to compare to a ...
1
vote
1answer
80 views

What is an appropriate algorithm to use for tax loss harvesting?

I've been reading into how Betterment and Wealthfront have architected their tax loss harvesting algorithms, but they stop short of providing any real examples. Essentially, they both reduce to: ...
2
votes
3answers
183 views

Dou you have an example of implementing Engle-Granger 2-step cointegration?

Does anyone know where to find an example of implementing Engle-Granger 2-step cointegration? Python's ideal, but any language will do. I've skimmed and read many articles, but understand little ...
2
votes
0answers
24 views

What methods - inspired by Haavelmo’s Structural Econometrics - can show that a partial equilibrium model is unreliable? [closed]

According to Spanos 2014 Revisiting Haavelmo's Structural econometrics: Bridging the gap between theory and data Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models are statistically inadequate, in such an ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Standardized Abnormal Returns

I have a question. In an event study, I have found a standardized cumulative abnormal return Z test formula. It is attached. I couldn't find any sources to prove it. Do you know any articles about ...
2
votes
1answer
81 views

Law of large numbers necessary for APT derivation?

The question refers to the well-known Ross (1976) paper with the derivation of the Asset Pricing Theory. In the APT, the return of asset $i$ is driven by a linear factor model: $$ R_i = \alpha_i + ...
3
votes
1answer
176 views

Bayesian or Frequentist in Finance?

I'm currently an undergrad at a Canadian university and our finance courses has been brought up through the frequentist approach (ols, hypothesis testing, sampling theory). Only recently, through ...
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votes
1answer
64 views

Probability distribution and Stock Price Movement [closed]

How can we use normal distribution for finding the probability of a stock price offer where current price offer depends upon the last price offer. The price offer on some day can go 10% above (at the ...
1
vote
1answer
104 views

To lump or not to lump

Suppose I have a very simple asset whose price takes only three possible values: $X_t\in \{-1,0,1\}$. I also got some discrete time series $X = (X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and I would like to come up with a ...
0
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0answers
25 views

How to calculate the standard deviation of a 'deviation from a moving average'?

Say I have a vector of daily price changes for an asset and calculate the standard deviation of returns in the usual way. Let's call this result A. Now assume that for the same asset I also have a ...
0
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0answers
89 views

Interpretation of Cointegration results, pValues and t-Stat

This is a follow up to: Cointegration results interpretation validation? I ran another Engel Granger Test on a pair, The results I get: ...
6
votes
4answers
277 views

What are the canonical books for statistics applied to finance?

I have some decent knowledge of probability, stochastic processes and option theory, however I do not have a proper background in statistics. Now I am working quite a lot with data, and trying ...
3
votes
1answer
137 views

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for Generalized Pareto Distribution

I've fitted my data to a generalized pareto distribution as to model the returns in the tails more accurately. The interior is fitted with kernel distributions. I would like to now test whether the ...
4
votes
3answers
247 views

How is stock data objectively different to this random walk?

I have a random walk that is generated as so using python, numpy, and matplotlib ...
1
vote
0answers
178 views

What machine learning method is more suitable for prediction of financial time series? [closed]

I have some time series from a stock exchange market. For each of them, I want to answer the question that whether the price will grow at least p percent in the d coming days or NOT(and during these ...
2
votes
0answers
64 views

seasonality and generalized additive model

I am reading a report which talks about seasonality. There is a chart showing the average returns for each month of the year. In the chart it appears the last 3 months of the year tend to be negative. ...
1
vote
1answer
186 views

detecting and measuring lead lag effect

Given two time series data. I remember there is one statistics that tells you one is the leading factor while the other is the lagging factor. However, i do not remember the exact details. correlation ...
1
vote
2answers
167 views

How to combine Gaussian marginals with Gaussian copula to obtain multivariate normals?

in the book "Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance" I red the following: "Combining the Gaussian copula with Gaussian marginal gives a fancy way of expressing multivariate normals. However, ...
2
votes
2answers
182 views

Predict Futures Prices based on weather + agricultural data

I’m working in the area of Data Mining and have come up with the following idea for my Masters project.The text may not be the best structured but it’s a working draft to give you a quick idea. ...
2
votes
2answers
64 views

Is this a reasonable approach to determine the relative importance of valuation factors?

I am trying to come up with a measure of relative importance of a number of valuation factors. I am wondering whether correlation coefficients can't be used for determining this. More on the issue: ...
2
votes
0answers
97 views

State Space models with Short Time Series

My problem is that I have a state space model that I estimate using the Berndt–Hall–Hall–Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. The state space model is relatively simple in that the hidden part follows a pure ...
4
votes
1answer
183 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

How to value a portfolio of non-mature consumer loans?

I'm looking for the best way to value a portfolio of consumer loans that have NOT reached maturity and for which I do observe the payment/default history to date? I'm working with a large database of ...
2
votes
1answer
211 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
1
vote
0answers
203 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
0
votes
1answer
172 views

Book recommendation for time series analysis

I have been trying to wrap my head around Engel-Granger test and jcitest etc. I have failed thus far. If possible can someone guide me about which books to start with and possibly reach to ...
6
votes
2answers
310 views

Why are we obsessed over normalizing financial data?

I have recently began work on some high frequency financial tick data. I have been told to 'normalize' the data as much as possible and run linear regressions through them. In fact, the data doesn't ...
8
votes
4answers
708 views

Why shrink the covariance matrix?

I'm trying to understand why it's useful to shrink the covariance matrix for portfolio construction or in fact general. Think I missing something. I know if you have 5,000 stocks it's a lot of ...
3
votes
1answer
81 views

Properties of a Symmetric Copula

I am working with the following copula, and have a few questions about it: $C(x,y) = xy + \theta (1-x)(1-y)xy$ Here $\theta \in [-1,1]$ and $x,y \in [0,1]$ First, I am trying to show this copula is ...
1
vote
3answers
768 views

Calculate correlation between two sub portfolios and the combined portfolio

I have two sub portfolios (lets call them portfolio a & portfolio b - a portfolio is just a vector of weights that sum to 1) that combine to create a total portfolio. I also have a 2 x 2 ...
6
votes
2answers
270 views

Why do I have a statistically significant slope regressing R(t) on R(t-1)

I am reading Cochrane's lecture note here He mentioned that when you regress annual return on time t on that of time t-1, you will have neither statistically significant nor economically significant ...
2
votes
1answer
226 views

How to compare different volatility measures?

I read the Euan Sinclair's book (Volatility trading) in which he suggests different volatility estimators (Close-to-close, Parkinson, Garman-Klass, ...). I am inquiring about what is the best stock ...
0
votes
2answers
173 views

Use of geometric mean for average return of several indices

Can anyone give any reference for using the geometric mean to average the returns from several indices? Note, this question is not about the usual use of geometric mean to obtain the average return ...
1
vote
0answers
74 views

Sampling and/or asymptotic distribution of a function

Assume we have the following function: $$f(p) = \frac{1}{(1-p)d}\ln\left(\frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left[\frac{1+X_t}{1+Y_t} \right]^{1-p} \right)$$ where $d$ is a constant $T$ is a constant $X_t$ ...