The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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7 views

FORECASTING Model AR(1) in an Autoregressive Form The Pi´s Parameters

Ive been implementing a little exercise to obtain the first 2 forecasting points of an AR(1) process. And i want to have the forecasting ponts using the three forms: Im folowing this pdf ...
8
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2answers
301 views

GARCH model, expectation of volatility?

Consider a time series $\{r_t\}$ following a standard GARCH(1,1) model, i.e., $$ r_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t,$$ where $\epsilon_t \sim N(0,1)$ and are i.i.d, and $$\sigma_t^2 = \omega + \alpha_1 ...
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1answer
23 views

market change, correlation and estimation bias

I hear many quants sating that markets change very slowly. This "fact" is even presented as a justification of statistical arbitrage, for example, by affirming that correlations remain roughly the ...
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2answers
60 views

Spot price and volatility has a correlation of -1, why?

A stock option trader taught me yesterday that the correlation between the spot price of asset X and the variance of asset X is approximately -1. Can anyone give me a explanation why this is true?
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1answer
74 views

Fit linear model to higher moments of CAPM

How can one fit a linear model to the higher moments of CAPM in R? Fitting a linear model to the second moment (classical CAPM) would be ...
3
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1answer
95 views

Compare events effect on stock prices from different time periods

I’m going to test for the effect corporate credit rating announcements have on stock prices through different economic climates (good times vs. bad times). I want to research whether or not the stock ...
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0answers
31 views

How to construct a cointegrating vector using more than 2 price series in R?

I use now this code from hier Why does the following data fail my cointegration test? with slightly modification of possibility to load something directly from Dropbox file storage . ...
4
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1answer
149 views

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for Generalized Pareto Distribution

I've fitted my data to a generalized pareto distribution as to model the returns in the tails more accurately. The interior is fitted with kernel distributions. I would like to now test whether the ...
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0answers
12 views

How do I calculate what % of price hits R1 before pivot

I am trying to calculate what % of times the price touches R1 before the pivot level. I have the data for the last 10 years and know how often it touches the R1 one and pivot point but I don't know ...
3
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1answer
126 views

Covariance structure of call option surface

Assume the observed call option prices $C(K_i,T_i)$ for $i = 1,\dots,N$ are disturbed by some unknown measurement noise $\epsilon$. What would an appropriate covariance structure be for $\epsilon$? ...
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0answers
32 views

Can you tell me what this RBloomberg formula means?

I've been asked to re-create a spreadsheet that used RBloomberg using a different data source. But I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what one of the spreadsheet's formulas does. Can anyone tell ...
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8answers
7k views

Should I use an arithmetic or a geometric calculation for the Sharpe Ratio?

What are the advantages/disadvantages of using the arithmetic Sharpe Ratio vs the geometric Sharpe Ratio? Is one more correct? Or is one better in certain circumstances?
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0answers
33 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: ...
2
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1answer
33 views

What is the borne function mentioned in this paper?

On page 16, first paragraph of this paper, the authors introduce a function called "borne", which divides the normal distribution into n ranges of equal size, without citation. The definition is clear ...
17
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5answers
1k views

Is R being replaced by Python at quant desks?

I know the title sounds a little extreme but I wonder whether R is phased out by a lot of quant desks at sell side banks as well as hedge funds in favor of Python. I get the impression that with ...
1
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1answer
61 views

How to identify the orders p and q for ARIMA model using least squares method?

I would like to identify the orders p and q for ARIMA model using least squares method in Matlab. I have got also two data files (one with noise and one without) Previously I identified p and q for ...
-1
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1answer
37 views

Calculating or finding info about the value of a market? for example Cloud Storage [closed]

I am assembling a pitch which will aim towards investors by the end of this year/beginning of next year, and I need to gather information such as how much the Cloud Storage market is worth and how ...
3
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0answers
106 views

How to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio

Anyone have a clue how to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio? Let's say I want to compare the Relative strength for these: EWA iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund EWD ...
3
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1answer
98 views

Fitting transition matrices in R by solving for coefficient

I'm using various matrices to impute a fitted transition matrix for credit ratings by solving for a variable [S]. Essentially the idea is to determine a base matrix and stress matrix to compare to a ...
3
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3answers
160 views

References on Statistical Arbitrages

Is there any basic materials (books, papers) to read on Statistical Arbitrage? I certainly understand much of the useful information is in the industry. I just want to get some understanding on the ...
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0answers
17 views

Value of sequential mutually-exclusive options (A variant on the Secretary Problem)

How much should you offer a potential hire in a signing bonus? Imagine you are interviewing a list of candidates for a particular job. Each candidate has a "lifetime value", and probability of ...
2
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1answer
122 views

rollapply with Arima model: testing for stability of coefficients

I am trying to fit an arima model on a rolling window using rollapply.My aim is to plot a graph of the evolution of the coefficient, plot the error and the standard deviation. well i encountered the ...
0
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0answers
42 views

Interpreting Johansen co integration test

I am a little new to econometrics. Please pardon me for this silly question. I was running a Johansen cointegration test on two time series using the econometrics toolbox provided by James LeSage for ...
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0answers
83 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
2
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1answer
91 views

How to account for correlation between strategies when they are added linearly?

There are n strategies which are going to be combined linearly. Using a pre-exisiting model I get a set of n weights which will be used to combine the strategies. But the model does not take ...
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1answer
237 views

using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
2
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3answers
204 views

Dou you have an example of implementing Engle-Granger 2-step cointegration?

Does anyone know where to find an example of implementing Engle-Granger 2-step cointegration? Python's ideal, but any language will do. I've skimmed and read many articles, but understand little ...
1
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1answer
105 views

To lump or not to lump

Suppose I have a very simple asset whose price takes only three possible values: $X_t\in \{-1,0,1\}$. I also got some discrete time series $X = (X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and I would like to come up with a ...
1
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1answer
98 views

What is an appropriate algorithm to use for tax loss harvesting?

I've been reading into how Betterment and Wealthfront have architected their tax loss harvesting algorithms, but they stop short of providing any real examples. Essentially, they both reduce to: ...
2
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0answers
25 views

What methods - inspired by Haavelmo’s Structural Econometrics - can show that a partial equilibrium model is unreliable? [closed]

According to Spanos 2014 Revisiting Haavelmo's Structural econometrics: Bridging the gap between theory and data Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models are statistically inadequate, in such an ...
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0answers
26 views

Standardized Abnormal Returns

I have a question. In an event study, I have found a standardized cumulative abnormal return Z test formula. It is attached. I couldn't find any sources to prove it. Do you know any articles about ...
7
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3answers
4k views

Can the Hurst exponent be greater than one?

Can the Hurst exponent be greater than one? Does it mean that the time series follows a random walk or that it's not stationary?
5
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3answers
12k views

How to fit ARMA+GARCH Model In R?

I am currently working on ARMA+GARCH model using R. I am looking out for example which explain step by step explanation for fitting this model in R. I have time series which is stationary and I am ...
2
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1answer
83 views

Law of large numbers necessary for APT derivation?

The question refers to the well-known Ross (1976) paper with the derivation of the Asset Pricing Theory. In the APT, the return of asset $i$ is driven by a linear factor model: $$ R_i = \alpha_i + ...
3
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1answer
181 views

Bayesian or Frequentist in Finance?

I'm currently an undergrad at a Canadian university and our finance courses has been brought up through the frequentist approach (ols, hypothesis testing, sampling theory). Only recently, through ...
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1answer
70 views

Probability distribution and Stock Price Movement [closed]

How can we use normal distribution for finding the probability of a stock price offer where current price offer depends upon the last price offer. The price offer on some day can go 10% above (at the ...
2
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1answer
216 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
2
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3answers
10k views

Kalman Filter Equity Example

I am looking out for some material where I can study about Kalman Filter applied to Equity using Excel or R?
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0answers
27 views

How to calculate the standard deviation of a 'deviation from a moving average'?

Say I have a vector of daily price changes for an asset and calculate the standard deviation of returns in the usual way. Let's call this result A. Now assume that for the same asset I also have a ...
6
votes
4answers
295 views

What are the canonical books for statistics applied to finance?

I have some decent knowledge of probability, stochastic processes and option theory, however I do not have a proper background in statistics. Now I am working quite a lot with data, and trying ...
0
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0answers
92 views

Interpretation of Cointegration results, pValues and t-Stat

This is a follow up to: Cointegration results interpretation validation? I ran another Engel Granger Test on a pair, The results I get: ...
17
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6answers
6k views

What is the intuition behind cointegration?

What is the intuition behind cointegration? What does the Dickey-Fuller test do to test for it? Ideally, a non-technical explanation would be appreciated. Say you need to explain it to an investor ...
4
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3answers
253 views
1
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0answers
188 views

What machine learning method is more suitable for prediction of financial time series? [closed]

I have some time series from a stock exchange market. For each of them, I want to answer the question that whether the price will grow at least p percent in the d coming days or NOT(and during these ...
2
votes
0answers
64 views

seasonality and generalized additive model

I am reading a report which talks about seasonality. There is a chart showing the average returns for each month of the year. In the chart it appears the last 3 months of the year tend to be negative. ...
1
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1answer
206 views

detecting and measuring lead lag effect

Given two time series data. I remember there is one statistics that tells you one is the leading factor while the other is the lagging factor. However, i do not remember the exact details. correlation ...
4
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1answer
192 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
8
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3answers
2k views

Hidden Markov Model & Its Application

I have started reading about HMM it gives an intuitive idea about what HMM is all about. I am looking out for example where its applied to Equity model using R / Excel. The material which I read so ...
2
votes
2answers
190 views

Predict Futures Prices based on weather + agricultural data

I’m working in the area of Data Mining and have come up with the following idea for my Masters project.The text may not be the best structured but it’s a working draft to give you a quick idea. ...
2
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2answers
66 views

Is this a reasonable approach to determine the relative importance of valuation factors?

I am trying to come up with a measure of relative importance of a number of valuation factors. I am wondering whether correlation coefficients can't be used for determining this. More on the issue: ...