The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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2answers
17 views

Skewed Student t distribution MLE and Simulation

I have Financial LOB data and I feel that a skewed t distribution will fit best. I have a problem trying to find the parameters using MLE numerically since Matlabs built in function does not allow for ...
6
votes
1answer
41 views

Where to get Tobin's Q by country

I am trying to rank countries based on Tobin's Q ratio. US data can be easily gathered from FED's report and is available on multiple website. I want get data on other countries with high Index of ...
6
votes
1answer
813 views

How to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio

Anyone have a clue how to calculate the JdK RS-Ratio? Let's say I want to compare the Relative strength for these: EWA iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund EWD ...
1
vote
1answer
253 views

Weights Blowing up in PCA

I'm using daily settlement data to get yield levels for a couple of products. From this data I am doing PCA on a rolling collection of the yield levels. I have been using sci-kit learn's PCA function, ...
0
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1answer
162 views

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Questions

I've been searching in bibliography about this test applied to an AR(p) model. $$Q(L)(Y_{t})=c+\epsilon_{t}$$ Where L represent the Lag Operator and $Q=1-\phi_{1}x-.....-\phi_{p}x^{p}$ is the ...
8
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0answers
200 views

Proving the asymptotic distribution of Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure (MPPM) (Paper by Goetzmann et al.)

In Goetzmann et al.'s (2007) paper, the authors derive a "Manipulation-Proof Performance Measure" (MPPM), which is a performance measure that is impervious to performance manipulation by fund ...
5
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0answers
755 views

Asymmetric Volatility Modeling (Interpretation)

I am currently writing a paper on asymmetric volatility modeling of brent, gold, silver, wheat, soybean and corn from 1986-2012 and divided them into 4 sub-sample periods (i.e. 1986-1991, 1991-1997, ...
4
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0answers
412 views

Is this methodology to calculate Alpha using multi-factor regression model correct?

I am trying to find out Historical Alphas of a bunch of fund returns ${F_i}$ by Using Regression Model$(stepwise)$ with regressors as its underlying exposure-returns(risk-free rate subtracted) i.e. ...
4
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0answers
543 views

How to determine ratios for mean-reverting basket

Suppose I have a basket of 3 securities A, B, and C. I believe that the basket is cointegrated and I want to create a mean-reverting trade. I fit the model: ...
4
votes
0answers
168 views

Is it more accurate to analyze returns on a calendar day basis than a trading day basis?

I'm rather new to the actual practice of this kind of analysis, but it just seems wrong to me to throw Mondays' returns in with the rest without accounting for the passage of time on the weekend when ...
4
votes
0answers
520 views

ATM volatility versus OTM volatility and directional standard deviation

The forward instrument vol curve is skewed to the downside (50 delta risk reversal, 25 put, 25 call) were trading several ticks to the put). Is there a smaller standard deviation (in price terms) to ...
3
votes
0answers
47 views

subadditivity of VaR

It is known that the VaR (Value at risk) doesn't fulfill subadditivity, i.e. $VaR(X)+VaR(Y) \le VaR(X+Y)$ But for elliptical distributions subadditivity is true. Questions: (1) Which ...
3
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0answers
46 views

Test for difference in security returns before and after financial regulation

I'm going to study the effect of corporate credit rating changes (Moody's) on stock prices before and after a specific financial regulation. So far i have used an event study where i have divided the ...
3
votes
0answers
117 views

State Space models with Short Time Series

My problem is that I have a state space model that I estimate using the Berndt–Hall–Hall–Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. The state space model is relatively simple in that the hidden part follows a pure ...
3
votes
0answers
172 views

Should I use Resampling or Expectation Maximization to compute a robust covariance matrix?

I have several assets, each with different return histories. Some of the assets have 75 days of return history, others have 40 or so days. In calculating a robust covariance matrix, should I be using ...
3
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0answers
310 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
3
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0answers
237 views

how to represent financial data as a spatial process

Does any one have a good tutorial , introduction or overview on the web for different ways of representing financial data as a spatial process? Such as those spatial processes often used in ...
2
votes
0answers
105 views

Can you tell me what this RBloomberg formula means?

I've been asked to re-create a spreadsheet that used RBloomberg using a different data source. But I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what one of the spreadsheet's formulas does. Can anyone tell ...
2
votes
0answers
87 views

seasonality and generalized additive model

I am reading a report which talks about seasonality. There is a chart showing the average returns for each month of the year. In the chart it appears the last 3 months of the year tend to be negative. ...
2
votes
0answers
160 views

Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
2
votes
0answers
659 views

Does the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have stationary variance?

I know that the long run variance of the standard OU process is $\lim_{s\rightarrow \infty}\mbox{Var}(P_{t+s}|P_t) = \frac{\sigma^2}{2\theta}$ I'm using the geometric version of the process. I ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Proper Definition of Backtesting Parameter

Currently I'm trying to test the efficacy of a tail-hedging strategy in which an investor goes long in an index and correspondingly buys 1-month OTM put options. For practical reasons, the options ...
1
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0answers
51 views

state space for affine yield curve

i would like to reproduce in R the working paper " Affine free arbitrage class of Nelson Siegel term structure". The authors considering the equation of nelson siegel plus an adjustment term(C(t,T)) ...
1
vote
0answers
16 views

How do I calculate what % of price hits R1 before pivot

I am trying to calculate what % of times the price touches R1 before the pivot level. I have the data for the last 10 years and know how often it touches the R1 one and pivot point but I don't know ...
1
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0answers
77 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: ...
1
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0answers
91 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
1
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0answers
58 views

How to value a portfolio of non-mature consumer loans?

I'm looking for the best way to value a portfolio of consumer loans that have NOT reached maturity and for which I do observe the payment/default history to date? I'm working with a large database of ...
1
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0answers
380 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
1
vote
0answers
75 views

Sampling and/or asymptotic distribution of a function

Assume we have the following function: $$f(p) = \frac{1}{(1-p)d}\ln\left(\frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left[\frac{1+X_t}{1+Y_t} \right]^{1-p} \right)$$ where $d$ is a constant $T$ is a constant $X_t$ ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

Deming Regression

I am trying to test the linearity = interdependence or the non-linear (contagion) between Asian countries during the Asian crises using the fluctuation of the exchange rate. Is it relevant to use the ...
0
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0answers
52 views

Easy question (?) - how to measure if volatility for two samples is significantly different?

For my bachelor thesis I'm doing a research where at one point I want to measure if volatility for a certain sample of stocks in period A is significantly different from i) the same sample of stocks ...
0
votes
0answers
69 views

Problems calculating RSI

For the last few days I've been trying to calculate an RSI that matches a reliable source. Yahoo finance, E-trade, and TDA all give identical values, which I am unable to replicate. I have tried ...
0
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0answers
24 views

Binomial vs inverse binomial transform in obtaining moments

I am trying to obtain raw co-moment matrices from central co-moment matrices and I have found formulas for the transition from central to raw moments here . I have also found the opposite, that is ...
0
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0answers
46 views

Probability of reversion for cointegrated variables

I ran a Johansen test to figure out the cointegrating relationship between two variables $x$ and $y$, forming the equation $z=ax+by$ using the eigenvectors. The values are computed using from time ...
0
votes
0answers
41 views

Impulse response function interpretation

I would need a quick help with Impulse response function interpretation which I have done after Vector autoregression model in stata. I need to understand how to interpret IRF graph or table values ...
0
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0answers
266 views

Simple EOD computations for tick data

As part of End-Of-Day calculations once a particular market/exchange has closed for all the tickers traded on that market one may typically compute the following properties: OHLC Bid/Ask Price ...