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5
votes
1answer
98 views

Is trading mean reversion of small principal components of prices profitable?

Many have told me that it is a good idea to look at the third principal component (PC) of yield curve movements, as well as third and fourth PC of G10 currencies. They claim these PCs represent ...
7
votes
1answer
247 views

Distribution of hitting time of the integrated CIR process

If an increasing process $X_t$ has a known Laplace transform $\mathbb{E} e^{-s X_t} = m_t(s)$, define its hitting time $\tau$ to some level $B$ to be $$ \tau = \inf\{ u > 0 : X_u \geq B \}. $$ Can ...
1
vote
0answers
70 views

VXV vs. VIX futures: arbitrage opportunities?

At a first glance, VXV and VIX futures should not be compared at all: VXV is an underlying index, whilst VIX futures are derivatives written on a different underlying index, that is, VIX. As ...
7
votes
2answers
217 views

How to check that an interest rate curve is arbitrage free

I have 2 interest rate curves (LIBOR 3M and OIS). I want to create stress scenarios for those two curves. Is it possible that some scenarios will make my term structure arbitrageable? How can I test ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Spotting humps in implied volatility term structure

Sometimes implied volatility term structure performs a hump shape. How can I measure the frequency of hump appearence? Basically, I have several years of daily data on IV TS, how can I count the ...
1
vote
0answers
47 views

affine arbitrage free class of nelson siegel yield curve

I'm studying statistics for finance at university. Last week i read the working paper on "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models". I would like to reproduce in R ...
1
vote
1answer
45 views

Applying interest rate models for volaility rate

To what extent may the interest rate models be applied for modeling implied volatity? The story: I was checking different stochastic option pricing models for being able to replicate implied ...
1
vote
0answers
64 views

State of Art - Nelson Siegel Modeling

My idea is to work with dynamic Nelson Siegel models(DNS) on my master's thesis. As I am finishing undergraduation this year I started researching on the subject. I wonder what is being discussed in ...
3
votes
0answers
56 views

Correct form for State Space Equation for Kalman Filter for DNS

In this paper: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf in eqns 3,5 the state eqn has the mean removed. $(z_t-\mu)=A(z_{t-1}-\mu) + \epsilon_t$ $y_t=C z_t + \delta_t$ ...
3
votes
0answers
99 views

Forecast biasness of VIX term structure

I'm interested in the topic of VIX futures being overpriced, so I'm looking for different models to find evidence for it. Asensio 2013 uses a regression to evaluate the forecast biasness of the VIX ...
1
vote
0answers
65 views

Term Structure and short rates

If I have a term structure/yield curve given by: $$f(t, T) = f(0, T) + σ^2t(T − \frac{t}{2}) + σB_t $$ and want to find the short/spot rate $r_t$, is this simply: $$f(t,t) = f(0,t) + ...
1
vote
2answers
52 views

Incorrect characterization of spot rate?

Is the t in the red boxed $R(t,T)$ supposed to be the same as the S in the green boxed $R(S,T)$?
2
votes
2answers
167 views

What is the reasoning to derive this financial model called the Vasicek Model?

The model specifies that the instantaneous interest rate follows the stochastic differential equation $$\mathrm{d}r_t = a(b-r_t)\: \mathrm{d}t + \sigma \: \mathrm{d}W_t$$ where $W_{t}$ is a Wiener ...
3
votes
0answers
147 views

How to de-seasonalize natural gas term structure data?

I need to de-seasonalize Nat Gas futures data for a project and am hoping to get good suggestions. As we all know natural gas futures are priced higher for the winter months and to analyze/model the ...
5
votes
1answer
667 views

QuantLib: Black / BSM processes and pricing via volatility surface. Different results?

I start this question with a couple of C++ functions that will be useful to show some results. So start your Visual Studio C++ Express or Ceemple or whatever you want and copy & paste this: ...
7
votes
1answer
422 views

Are there any other standard rates term structure decomposition than PCA?

PCA is sometimes used to estimate components in the rates term structure. Are there any other standard method discussed in the literature or used in practice, what are their advantages and ...
1
vote
1answer
101 views

Inferring signals in absence of sign of principal components (PCA)?

PCA seems to be very popular in dimension reduction applications and for extracting the top PCs which explain the data. One such application in futures is on the term structure to obtain the level, ...
4
votes
1answer
777 views

How to price a bond at specified dates in QuantLib

I am wondering what's the most efficient way (i.e. the method which involves the fewest arguments) to price a bond at a specified date, e.g. a future date (as instance, 6 months from now) in QuantLib. ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

On short-rate-models: Black-Karasinski (with constant parameters) compared to Vasicek

When modelling the term structure of interest rates, one widespread possibility is using the Black-Karasinski model, which is given by the following stochastic process ...
3
votes
1answer
316 views

how to define liquidity in equity, index, and etf options

i've heard several ways to put a metric on liquidity of options.. obviously liquidity isn't a constant.. things like the Bid/Asks spread, liquidity of the underlying.. Trying to find a way to ...