A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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1answer
33 views

Determining confidence level of directional signals

With regards to technical analysis, are there ways of determining the confidence level of a directional signal? Taking a relative strength index (RSI) as an example, can the extent to which an asset ...
1
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0answers
33 views

How to choose a GARCH model which delivers iid standardized residuals?

For my thesis I first need to examine nine financial time series and fit a conditional volatility model such that the obtained standardized residuals ($z_t = \epsilon_t / \sigma_t$) are approximately ...
1
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0answers
41 views

serial correlation, Fama MacBeth (1973) procedure incorporating momentum

I have a question regarding the use of the Fama-MacBeth (1973) procedure on panel data. I am investigating the cross sectional determinants of expected REIT return following the procedure from: Chui, ...
2
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1answer
39 views

Fitting Copula and Simulation

I would greatly appreciate any insights into the problem described below, regarding using the data obtained from applying the functions of the 'rugarch' package into those from the 'copula' package. ...
6
votes
5answers
359 views

Thoughts on how quantitative hedge funds use machine learning to invest in the stock market (algorithms, examples of data, etc.)

I believe there are several post on this general topic but I thought I would start my own thread. I'm a former fundamental hedge fund investor (i.e. modeling a company's financials, forecasting the ...
2
votes
2answers
47 views

Automate selection of BIC-minimizing ARIMA(1,0,X) model

I want to estimate an ARIMA(1,0,X) model. The MA(X) in the model is selected to minimize BIC. I have the following code employing the function auto.arima from ...
1
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0answers
22 views

Marginal Distribution using GARCH model

I have n return series. I fitted AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) to each return series. Then used PIT(residuals) to transform the residuals to uniform. Then I fitted n dim copula to the data. I simulated 1000 points ...
1
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0answers
39 views

Distribution of AR and MA polynoms roots in ARMA/ARMA-GARCH models

I have another noob question. So, for example, I have ARMA(2,2) model: $$ x_{t} = \phi_{1}x_{t-1} + \phi_{2}x_{t-2} + e_{t} + \theta_{1} e_{t-1} + \theta_{2} e_{t-2}$$. So, I have 2 polynoms: $$1 - ...
0
votes
1answer
43 views

How to create time series with lagged in R [closed]

Would anyone else advise me, how to create time series with lagged in R. I would the result is the difference with lagged, there is a function Delt() but the result is the percentage change. Please ...
1
vote
1answer
57 views

What causes discontinuities with stock prices

With reference to the figure above, why is it that the price at which the stock closed at on monday not equal to the open price on tuesday? Is this discontinuity due to an adjustment in the price ...
2
votes
1answer
63 views

distribution of AR, MA coefficients estimation in ARMA-GARCH models

could anyone give me an information about distributions of AR and MA coefficients via estimation? So, for example, I have ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model with the same AR(1) and MA(1) parameters ...
2
votes
0answers
51 views

Johansen cointegration test interpretation in R

I want to test my time series for cointegration using the Johansen test in R. I got the following result and so I know now that at least 5 out of 9 of my time series are cointegrated. My question is, ...
3
votes
2answers
112 views

How to deal with negative ARCH terms?

Lately I have been trying to fit a GJR-GARCH(1,1) model to fit against the S&P 500 returns over 1985-2015 but I have ran into some problems I can't quite figure out. The GJR-GARCH(1,1) model I am ...
3
votes
2answers
76 views

ARMA-GARCH model, bset model selection and confidence levels calculations

I'm a newbie in GARCH models. I tried to realize ARMA(p, q)-GARCH(u, v) model via fGarch. So, 2 main questions. 1) Can I use BIC/AIC for selection best model for all (p, q)-(u, v) models? So, is it ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

LSTM w/dropout Peer-reviewed or other authoritative lit for time-series/financial econometrics/Teh stock price/volatility/etc

So, I've been looking on Google Scholar for stuff using Long Short-Term Memory neural nets for time series. I was inspired by the interview with this 2nd place finisher in a recent Kaggle major: ...
3
votes
1answer
73 views

Dickey Fuller test of stationarity differenced data

In this case study on treasury yeilds from MIT, I have a question on page 11-12. He uses this data getYahooData("^TNX", start=20000101, end=20130531) His logic on page 11 is this "only daily ...
1
vote
1answer
55 views

Error when trying to estimate a Markov-switching Var model in R

I'm trying to estimate a Markov-switching VAR in R using the command msvar. These are the first 10 entries of my two time series. I have 798. When I try to run this I get an Error message ...
0
votes
0answers
50 views

VECM model with GARCH (1,1) error in R

I should create a VECM model with 8 lags and with Garch (1,1) error in R but i don't know how to do it and which package to use. The VECM should also have covariates in it. Then I should perform a ...
1
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0answers
35 views

Problem with overlapping data when testing futures market efficiency

In my case non-overlapping data would represent the scenario where futures prices (3 months) do not correspond to the futures spot prices in terms of delivery date. For example, futures settlement ...
1
vote
1answer
62 views

Strategies to merge bid, offer and trade price time series into a single price time series?

I'm doing intraday analysis on low volume stocks. There are just a few trades every day, but a whole host of bids and offers. In order to reduce the sparsity of the time series data I'd like to ...
2
votes
0answers
55 views

VAR models for log-returns?

I am wondering if Vector Autoregression (and other autoregressive models) is a sound modelling for the daily (not high-frequency!) log-returns of time series from liquid financial markets. One can ...
0
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0answers
22 views

Guidance on machine learning approach to improve interpolation [duplicate]

I am thinking about doing a project on improving the accuracy of some stock signals. The signals are fundamentally derived scores on a per stock basis. They are updated on a weekly or monthly ...
4
votes
2answers
89 views

ruGarch - Interpret test results

I'm working on a R project, trying to calibrate a GARCH (so far, (1,1) ) model to the yields of the STOXX50 index over the last 2 years. I've tried the garch function of the tseries package, but it ...
0
votes
0answers
46 views

VAR(1) - GARCH(1,1) model estimation in R

Can someone please help in explaining the steps involved to estimate the parameters of VAR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model of Mcaleer 2003 in r. It is a multivariate GARCH model where the mean equation is ...
0
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0answers
31 views

White's reality check p-value

I am running a hypothesis test based on White's reality check p-value. I am getting a weird result for my univariate time series of returns. In essence, I am following a code on MATlab to run the test ...
1
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0answers
33 views

Are there alternatives to the Box-Tiao decomposition in identifying mean reverting portfolios?

As documented in this paper, Box-Tiao decomposition (a way to decompose multiple time series into components with different speeds of mean reversion) can be used to identify mean reverting portfolios. ...
2
votes
1answer
81 views

VEC GARCH (1,1) for 4 time series

I have to estimate a VEC GARCH(1,1) model in R. I already tried rmgarch, fGarch, ccgarch, mgarch, tsDyn. Has somebody estimated a model like that? ...
0
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0answers
26 views

Eurostoxx50 data in USD

does anyone know how I can import from yahoo the Eurostoxx50 data denominated in USD (not Euros as listed on yahoo?)
1
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0answers
52 views

Estimating Daily Dynamics using Hourly Data

This article gives a nice outline of how daily data can be used to estimate cointegration on a monthly horizon. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1404905 I'd like to use the same ...
0
votes
1answer
80 views

Aggregating Tick Data

I have Level 1 data that has already been aggregated into 0.5s buckets by the exchange. I'd like to further aggregate the data into hourly and daily buckets. I plan to do this by simply taking a ...
1
vote
1answer
78 views

Memory-efficient clustering algorithm for large time-series datasets

I have a simulation task at hand with ~1e6 time series to be clustered on the basis of statistical measures every few days in the simulation. Most clustering methods I'm aware of require an affinity ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Is there any package in R for conditional autoregressive range model (CARR)?

I am working on a project which requires volatility estimation using range based volatility. Is there any package in R which helps me in estimating the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005).
0
votes
1answer
162 views

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Questions

I've been searching in bibliography about this test applied to an AR(p) model. $$Q(L)(Y_{t})=c+\epsilon_{t}$$ Where L represent the Lag Operator and $Q=1-\phi_{1}x-.....-\phi_{p}x^{p}$ is the ...
1
vote
0answers
53 views

How to fit exogenous + GARCH Model In Python?

I am studying a textbook of statistics / econometrics, using Python for my computational needs. I have encountered GARCH models and my understanding is that this is a commonly used model. In an ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

adding dummy variable to ts object in r for particular quarter

I've looked all over and can't seem to get a clear idea of how to do this; I have ts data with quarterly frequencies. I simply want to add a dummy variable only for the data corresponding to Q4 but I ...
2
votes
2answers
138 views

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test/ Unit Root test on multiple time series dataframe in R

I have a dataset/dataframe in which I have calculated the daily log returns of five thousand companies and these companies are as column as well. I want carry out ADF test on this dataframe. I have ...
0
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0answers
31 views

In what situations would cross validations scores be inaccurate?

I'm trying to fit a SVM model on times series stock return data, predicting a buy, hold, or sell signal of the stock. I'm using 10-fold cross validation (using the R package ...
7
votes
2answers
363 views

What time series database can be used with Python and Pandas?

I'm looking for a time series database that can be easily used with Python and Pandas objects such as DataFrame, Panel... But these objects will always contains time series. Ideally I'm looking for ...
4
votes
1answer
112 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Including intercept and trend in ADF of differenced series

When specifying that the trend and/or intercept be included in the ADF output, does the trend/intercept election follow through to the ADF tests of differenced data as well? To clarify further, I ...
3
votes
1answer
266 views

ARMA+GARCH prediction with package rugarch (R)

I am analyzing FTSE 100 series, from 2007-01-01 to 2010-12-31 (university exam homework). I have to use the data 'til 2010-11-30 as sample, and the remaining (23) observations as in-sample forecast ...
0
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1answer
161 views

Transforming daily simple returns into weekly

I am trying to transform daily simple returns into weekly returns. I am using the following R code: ...
0
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0answers
22 views

Download DGS3MO from FRED with getSymbols - error

I follow the course "Mathematical topics in finance" from MIT courseware. I opened R and rendered Dr. Kempthorne's Case Study 3: Time Series from September 30, 2013 I am able to render the code and ...
2
votes
1answer
57 views

Estimating Carma(2,1) parameters (using yuima package)

I am very new to R, and particularly to the yuima package, so I was hoping someone would be able to help me. I have some data (daily prices) that I wish to fit to ...
0
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0answers
26 views

Measuring strength of correlation for bivariate time series

In case of a bi-variate time series with both I(0) how do I measure the strength of co-relation. I am looking for measure similar to R-squared but ideal measure may not be one of the variants of ...
2
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0answers
44 views

When to use SV or a GARCH model

So i have been searching for this answer for a question if there is a rule or something that would say when to use GARCH type model or use an stochastic volatility model to predict the volatility of ...
1
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0answers
47 views

copulas and time series

Can anbody explain how Copulas are used to describe the dependency between, for example, the return on two different stocks? I understand how Copulas are the "glue" that binds the two marginals ...
2
votes
2answers
135 views

Normalizing SPY ETF time series data with its sector ETFs?

I am looking to compare the returns of a sector rotation strategy between the various SPDR sector ETFs XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, XLU vs. ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

CCC-Garch predict

So I'm trying to measure the VaR of 2 stock with a multivariate GARCH model, so im using the CCC model. I need to predict the standard-diviation and the mean but the ...
1
vote
2answers
184 views

Logistic Regression of tick data

I've been given some data (it's financial tick data) and I want to predict based on some observed variables whether the next move will be up, down or unchanged. So I have been trying to use ...