A sequence of events measured at disrete points in time.

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2
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0answers
99 views

Difference between kappa and delta in mixed-effects model

(This question is a crosspost from Cross Validated) I have a following stochastic model describing evolution of a process (Y) in space and time. Ds and Dt are domain in space (2D with x and y axes) ...
2
votes
1answer
252 views

Average beta of index consitutents w.r.t. the index is 0.60

I have 1 year time series data of 300 constituents of the Australian All Ordinaries index (which is composed of 491 firms). The missing firms are mostly smaller firms. I run the market model $R_{it} ...
5
votes
0answers
255 views

Can Hurst exponent be used to characterize nonlinear dependence in time series?

It appears to me that the answer is no, because Hurst exponent measures persistence in terms of autocorrelation, which is a linear measure. So even if a time series of asset returns is driven by ...
10
votes
1answer
521 views

Meta-view of different time-series similarity measures?

While I spend most of my StackExchange time on MathematicaSE, I'm in the business and follow the questions and answers on this site with great interest. Recently questions like the following (and ...
6
votes
2answers
830 views

How to simulate cointegrated prices

Is there any simple way to simulate cointegrated prices?
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
8
votes
3answers
240 views

Are there any standard techniques for adding realistic synthetic microstructure noise to a price series?

This may seem like a strange question, but for my particular application we need to actually add synthetic microstructure noise to real time charts. The signal should still be representative of the ...
9
votes
1answer
244 views

Is a linear combination of GARCH processes also a GARCH process?

If two time series follow a GARCH process, and a third is a linear combination of them, is the third also GARCH process?
2
votes
3answers
545 views

How to annualize dividends paid at varying intervals?

I am attempting to write a function that will calculate the annualized rate of return for individual dividends made by illiquid investments. These dividends are paid at varying intervals and the ...
11
votes
3answers
447 views

What is a commonly accepted econometric model for volume?

What is the gold standard econometric model for volume? For example, a common model for price is the autoregressive (AR) model with GARCH(1,1) innovations. Do you know of any good survey articles ...
2
votes
1answer
142 views

Good reference on sample autocorrelation?

I'm not a statistician but I'm writing my thesis on mathematical finance and I think it would be neat to have a short section about independence of stock returns. I need to get better understanding ...
3
votes
2answers
438 views

Entry and exit points for very short mean-reverting timeseries

I have a model specifying a cointegration relationship on a number of transaction-level timeseries. I would like to specify entry and exit points for trades where these points ideally would be just ...
6
votes
2answers
460 views

Choosing the time-frame to test for cointegration

Is there a technique to choose the time-frame for a cointegration test (eg Augmented Dickey-Fueller's)?
3
votes
2answers
283 views

central limit theorem and VAR

If I have a lot of data points and number of different dependent variables, can I use central limit theorem to assume data is multivariate normal and compute my VAR? Is this the appropriate use of ...
2
votes
1answer
577 views

a simpler test for normality given skewness, kurtosis and autocorrelation and size of time series

I typically do a JB (Jarque Bera) test and DW (Durbin Watson) tests for check for normality given skewness, kurtosis and autocorrelation of the data. However this requires a CHI distribution table ...
7
votes
0answers
366 views

Can we use White's reality check to compare two Sharpe ratios?

I read a paper from Ledoit and Wolf that proposes a method to compare two Sharpe ratios and a paper from White that proposes a method to compare $n$ trading rules. My question is: Can we use White's ...
4
votes
1answer
318 views

Is there any measure that is a non-trivial combination of VWAP and TWAP?

Is there any measure that is a non-trivial combination of VWAP and TWAP? For example: \begin{equation} \textrm{VTWAP} = \frac{\textrm{VWAP}+\textrm{TWAP}}{2} \end{equation} I'm thinking about ...
2
votes
1answer
337 views

Is there a measure for the 'degree' of cointegration

Is there a standard (or maybe even intuitive?) way of ranking pairs of cointegrated time series so that one could make statements like the following: ...
8
votes
3answers
479 views

How to test for and how to simulate price rise/fall asymmetry in the stock market

One of the stylized facts of financial time series seems to be a fundamental asymmetry between smooth upward movements over longer periods of time followed by abrupt declines over relatively shorter ...
3
votes
1answer
381 views

Linear regression and assets direction prediction

I have the following asset returns Y and the predictions for the same periods Y': Y = { 10, 200, -1000, -1, -7 } Y' = { 1, 2, -3, -4, -5 } The OLR R-squared for ...
10
votes
3answers
304 views

How to account for market movement when some exchanges are closed?

Daily data, such as open and close prices, is often available for much longer periods than high-frequency data. However, whenever backtesting any strategy that examines instruments traded in different ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Time series price prediction and linear regression: using high/low rather than last quotes price

Discrete time series regression models, like ARIMA, are usually built around the assumption that we only have 1 available price for each period t, which I will call the Close. In reality asset time ...
10
votes
5answers
1k views

How to interpolate gaps in a time series using closely related time series?

I am trying to construct a daily time series of prices and returns for some large universe of securities. However, all I have available are a monthly time series of the prices/returns (as well as ...
5
votes
1answer
519 views

How to apply quasi-Monte Carlo to path-dependent options?

Following up on my recent question on variance reduction in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Monte Carlo simulation, I would like to learn more about using a quasi-random sequence, such as Sobol or Niederreiter, ...
10
votes
6answers
1k views

How to generate a random price series with a specified range and correlation with an actual price?

I want to generate a mock price series. I want it to be within a certain range and have a defined correlation with the original price series. If I choose, say, oil, I want as many time series which ...
10
votes
2answers
837 views

How to detect structural breaks in variance?

I'm looking for a method to automatically detect structural breaks, I tried Chow test, It works good but it doens't work for breaks in variance. Do you know a test to check strucutural break in ...
4
votes
2answers
242 views

What's the difference between SA and SAAR?

I've only recently begun working in the quantitative finance field, and I've noticed that some time series I'm given are labeled "seasonally adjusted", and some labeled with "seasonally adjusted ...
4
votes
0answers
466 views

Algorithms for predicting a couple points in the future

I'm familiar with supervised learning algorithms like regression and neural networks which look at a bunch of input points and learn a function which outputs a value (the value varying depending on ...
6
votes
2answers
4k views

How GARCH/ARCH models are useful to check the volatility?

Below a R code wrote by the moderator @richardh (whom I want to thank again) about ARCH/GARCH models. ...
11
votes
6answers
16k views

How to check if a timeseries is stationary?

I'm using KPSS Method to check if the series is stationary, but I would also like to use another test to confirm if the series is stationary or not, what method coudl I use?
4
votes
0answers
494 views

Hasbrouck's information share

Given a cointegrated set of price series, I am trying to compute the Hasbrouck's information share, as described in page 12-13 of this article. page 7-8 of this article I have the vector error ...
8
votes
2answers
833 views

time series management system

I'm happy how we store a single time series but we somehow lack a system that glues them all together. I'm talking about a few million time series coming from ~50 data vendors and representing maybe ...
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Calculating Portfolio Skewness & Kurtosis

I need to calculate the skewness and kurtosis of 2 asset portfolio, can someone please help me with the formulas and definition of terms? Thank you. I have been using the matrices method and I am not ...
3
votes
3answers
757 views

How to normalize Futures data(different leverage) for cointegration test?

For example I want to construct 2 time series, one for ES and the other for NQ and test for cointegration. ES one point equal to 50$. NQ one point equal to 20$. If I have the following data: ...
2
votes
0answers
257 views

What does T statistics of Information Coefficient indicate?

Hi I am looking for a clear explanation of T statistics concept. Especially in quantitative equity portfolio management context, what does T statistics of monthly Information Coefficient for one ...
7
votes
1answer
800 views

Why does the following data fail my cointegration test?

I have some closing price data for two Australian banks which track each other very closely. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12337149/stat/CBA.csv http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12337149/stat/WBC.csv Code from ...
5
votes
1answer
424 views

Applying models with normality assumption on tick data?

Beginner question. Having read a couple of papers and book chapters on high-frequency data forecasting, I'm surprised (and confused) that the same time series techniques can be applied to ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views

How to detect regime change when estimating asset correlation from historical time series?

Suppose I have two asset time series, $X_t$ and $Y_t$, and I'm estimating their correlation from historical data. I'd like to apply some systematic criterion to estimate what time window I should use ...
11
votes
2answers
758 views

How to forecast expected volatility from high-frequency equity panel data?

I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other ...
10
votes
2answers
359 views

How to “uncluster” a set of financial data?

I am attempting to evaluate and compare the profit factor of different "test runs" of a FOREX trading strategy. My problem is that, despite an average time between orders of 2hr+, some of these runs ...
6
votes
1answer
449 views

Are shorter holding period strategies better?

Consider two statistically identical strategies (identical information ratios, sample size, ratio of transaction costs to total profit, etc.) except that one has a much shorter average holding period. ...
19
votes
2answers
2k views

How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?

Suppose one has an idea for a short-horizon trading strategy, which we will define as having an average holding period of under 1 week and a required latency between signal calculation and execution ...
10
votes
3answers
605 views

Literature on generating synthetic time series for testing

I have some market data (daily time series) for bond prices and CDS indices and I would like to generate synthetic versions of these which are statistically "similar" for testing trading strategies. ...
7
votes
2answers
501 views

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia?

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia on a security-by-security basis with a medium term horizon (say 3 month to 12 months horizon)? ...
2
votes
1answer
353 views

Techniques for forecasting short-frame data?

I'm having a problem in which a time series of 24 data points is given to forecast the next 12 data points. This 24 data points might be sparse (many are missing). Do you have any suggestion on what ...
2
votes
1answer
122 views

How to reconstruct a discontinued economic time series such as the Fed's CP rate?

The old 3-Month Commercial Paper Rate (CP3M) on FRED was discontinued in 1997. I would like to reconstruct this series in a reasonable fashion, so I can use it to analyze more recent events. I was ...
27
votes
5answers
3k views

How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?

I am working with a set of covariance matrices evaluated at various points in time over some history. Each covariance matrix is $N\times N$ for $N$ financial time-series over $T$ periods. I would ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

How do I calculate the skewness of a portfolio of assets?

I need to calculate the skewness of a portfolio consisting of 6 assets. I know that for that I would need the co-skewness matrix between the assets. Does anybody know the formula for co-skewness or ...
5
votes
0answers
571 views

Alternative to Block Bootstrap for Multivariate Time Series

I currently use the following process for bootstrapping a multivariate time series in R: Determine block sizes - run the function b.star in the np package which produces a block size for each series ...
7
votes
1answer
490 views

What methods do I need to learn in order forecast asset price movements?

What are the standard models used to forecast asset price movements? For example, if I were to trade an option, what model would I use in conjunction with option pricing models to forecast the stock ...