A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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1answer
205 views

how to compute daily skewness of S&P daily return timeseries under no other more high - frequency time series?

As we all know , return time series marked features: fat tail or negative skewness and peakedness. For a similar problem of variance computation, we can compute variance by garch model and other ...
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0answers
465 views

Oscillatory time-series forecasting

I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? ...
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4answers
317 views

Intermarket analysis - related time series?

I'm about to embark on training a neural network on daily forex data, with a view to obtaining a predictive network. I'm also interested in using data other than the forex currency pair data itself, ...
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1answer
172 views

Book recommendation for time series analysis

I have been trying to wrap my head around Engel-Granger test and jcitest etc. I have failed thus far. If possible can someone guide me about which books to start with and possibly reach to ...
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3answers
2k views

Which library shall I use for time series analysis in Java?

I'm looking for a library to do some time series analysis in Java but I can't find anything suitable. I've found plenty of libraries such as Math3 of JSAT but there's much I can you for my problem. ...
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3answers
293 views

Modeling Financial Time Series

Price time series are not stationary. So we difference them and get the return time series, which are stationary. Does this mean, it is always a good idea to model only the return series of financial ...
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1answer
505 views

Selecting timeframe for time series analysis

In technical analysis, we may use confluence of direction for 3 timeframes to roughly gauge bias of market now. Similarly, if we use time series forecasting methods to predict(say daily data-whether ...
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1answer
90 views

How to forecast bond price with time series

I have the goal of being able to develop a model that can forecast the future prices of european government bond (or other private bonds), particularly from the historical prices and returns of the ...
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1answer
48 views

Accuracy of GARCH& ARCH forecast

I'm learing ARCH&GARCH model. I have four questions that I don't know the answers 1st: ARCH & GARCH are often used to evaluate equities. Does it mean that ARCH and GARCH are fitter for high ...
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1answer
58 views

Calculate the realised volatility from a time series

Does anybody know how to calculate the realised volatility from a series for a certain time frame? For example, I am looking at 5 days, 21 days, 63 days, 126 days and 253 days. thanks
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0answers
23 views

johansen cointegration test eviews interpreation

I am not sure whether i am interpreting the cointegration test correct. This is the test result : Because of the probability of the test i understand that my series are cointegrated of order 2. ...
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0answers
59 views

High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
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0answers
45 views

Regressing NYSE returns: Lagged intercept term & efficient market hypothesis

By performing the following OLS time series regression, $y_t$ = $\beta_0$ + $\beta_1$*$y_{t-1}$ + $\beta_0$*$y_{t-1}^2$ + $\epsilon$ I cannot reject the null hypothesis that b1=b2=0. However, ...
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0answers
58 views

Cointegration and variance of time series

Given that $X_t , Y_t$ are two cointegrated random processes, what can we say about the relationship between variance of the two increments $var(X_{t+h}-X_t)$ , $var(Y_{t+h}-Y_t)$ for a given ...
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0answers
53 views

variance ratio for pair-trading

I am using the variance ratio test to check whether my sequence is mean reverting in that test there is a parameter n, How in general I choose this n? or what is the meaning of this parameter? ...
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0answers
13 views

Cross-post on the prediction mean squared error of a model

In accordance with what discussed in the meta here I am cross-posting this question from cross-validated. Suppose my model is $y_t = \alpha + \beta t + \epsilon_t$ the l-step-ahead prediction is ...
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0answers
22 views

Finding optimal ewma and number of periods usedas features in a time series regression

I am using an exponential moving average (ema) to smooth the return of a price time series. I then want to use the last n periods (features) as the independent variables of the time series to predict ...
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0answers
74 views

Greenplum database storage model for time series data

I have to deploy a greenplum database for analysis of time series data. I will have around 50 different time series (s1,s2,s3,...s50) and each series will have multiple pairs (time is 1 hour average ...
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0answers
89 views

Interpretation of Cointegration results, pValues and t-Stat

This is a follow up to: Cointegration results interpretation validation? I ran another Engel Granger Test on a pair, The results I get: ...
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0answers
20 views

Residual maturity vol

The following question is probably (from a practical point of view) more relevant for EM markets which typically exhibit a more pronounced forward volatility compared to spot volatility. Say I buy a ...
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0answers
394 views

Exporting Time Series Data For Securities Prices From Bloomberg to Excel

I have a list of securities over a thousand entries long that I want to construct a time series of prices for over a specified historical period (e.g. 2/01/10-2/20/10). Doing this manually would take ...
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1answer
89 views

Can we model components in a set of multivariate multi-period time-series data?

There are N data sets in periods occurring weekly/monthly, across a 10-year historical timeline. In each period, five dates are observed (labelled a to e), where a denotes the day the period ...
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0answers
100 views

Modelling interest rate: AR(2) modelling

I have a time series of spread that follows an $AR(2)$ (Autoregressive model of Order 2). I need an interest rate model that represents that dynamics. What model should I use?
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287 views

Time-varying correlation via state-space representation and Kalman filter

Let a linear time-varying mode like this one: $y_{t}=\alpha_{t}+\beta_{t}x_{t}+\epsilon_{t}$. You can also suppress the constant term to simplify this example: $y_{t}=\beta_{t}x_{t}+\epsilon_{t}$. ...
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0answers
277 views

Fluid dynamics for order book depth modelling

Would someone be able to give me an idea what type of fluid dynamics I could look at for modelling the order book? My background is more signals-related maths (correlation, covariance, fourier etc). ...
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0answers
36 views

How to make a historical index of a group of materials in which the set of materials changes every month?

The question may sound simple however for the moment it is a brainteaser to get it right, let me explain: the exercise is to be done on +/- 200 groups of materials (matgroups) one matgroup can ...
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0answers
258 views

Simple EOD computations for tick data

As part of End-Of-Day calculations once a particular market/exchange has closed for all the tickers traded on that market one may typically compute the following properties: OHLC Bid/Ask Price ...
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0answers
40 views

Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
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1answer
257 views

Calculate the total returns from the total return index [closed]

I have the Total Return Index(RI) for several companies. I know that I can calculate the log retunrs with $ln(RI_t/RI_{t-1})$. Therefore my first guess would be to ...
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1answer
104 views

Can I do a GARCH model to forecast a time series?

I read this paper https://research.aston.ac.uk/portal/files/240393/AURA_2_unmarked_Energy_demand_and_price_forecasting_using_wavelet_transform_and_adaptive_forecasting_models.pdf the two authors ...
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1answer
152 views

Converting time series returns into euro

I am trying to convert various series of returns into one currency (euro). I saw from aprevious post that soemone suggested using conversion factors, where would I find these? Also, given that the ...
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votes
2answers
217 views

How to apply Elliott wave priciple to any Time Series?

I'm strongly interested to computing Elliott Wave to any given Timeseries. Does anybody tried? Is there any phython library to do that? I'm looking for an algorithm taht if I give to it a time ...