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3answers
162 views

Step By Step method to calculating VaR using MonteCarlo Simulations

In trying to find VaR for 5 financial assets with prices over a long period of time(2000 days worth of data) how would I do the following: Carry out monte-carlo simulation in order to find a VaR ...
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1answer
60 views

Parametric VaR of a portfolio including a swap

I am calcualting the parametric VaR of a portfolio that includes among other things an IRS swap that begins in the exact same day the valuation is done. Therefore, its NPV is 0 and I do not which ...
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1answer
103 views

CDS spread scenarios from historical market data

I'm searching for information on the best way to generate scenarios to be used in VaR or ES calculations, for CDS spreads. Given that we need significant historical data in order to achieve a decent ...
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1answer
132 views

Currency risk USD>EUR>EGP

Seeking input on hedging risk on USD to Euro with a 3rd component of payroll issued in Egyptian Pounds. We are a US corp invoicing a Germany entity in Euro with massive payroll being paid in Egyptian ...
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0answers
41 views

Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
3
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0answers
314 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
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0answers
49 views

Value-at-Risk Calculation with respect to the Capital Requirements

I want to calculate the Value-at-Risk at date $t$ in such a way that I minimize the capital requirements given as \begin{align} \text{CR}_{\,t+1\,:\,t+250} = \sum_{h=0}^{249}\max\left( -(3+k_{t})\...
2
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0answers
113 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
2
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0answers
109 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
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0answers
32 views

Problems in computing VaR with GARCH-GPD-copula approach

I use a time-varying Gaussian copula (with GARCH-filtered standardized residuals modeled semiparametrically with Gaussian kernel interior and GPD tails, i.e. generalized pareto distributed) to ...
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0answers
146 views

How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test (...
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0answers
90 views

Simulating Option Positions VaR with Monte Carlo in Python

I'm trying to calculate VaR for overall option positions. Currently I do a MC simulation for the underlying, and derive the theoretical value of the option from those theoretically. Then I calculate ...
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0answers
270 views

Comparing Backtests of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

My goal is to test if ES (CVaR) empirically is a better risk measure than VaR for a set of given variables (assumed underlying distribution, confidence level, sample size) for different asset classes. ...
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0answers
117 views

How is the formula for the VEV (VaR-equivalent volatility) in the PRIIP document derived?

The recent regulation (page 32) on PRIIPs requires to compute a VaR-equivalent volatility defined as $$\mbox{VEV}=\frac{\sqrt{3.842-2\ln \mbox{VaR}}-1.96}{\sqrt{T}}$$ Does anyone have an idea how ...
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0answers
42 views

Coherent Risk Measures and VaR

I am working on a problem that is worded exactly as follows: Consider the functions $\rho_{1}$ and $\rho_{2}$, defined on the space of random variables with finite expected value in the following way ...
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0answers
76 views

Large deviations theory and extreme value theory

I'll enter into details of both, sooner or later, but for the moment I'm concerned about the differences (and relationships, if any) between these two theories. Can someone give me a brief, but still ...