Value at Risk, a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

0
votes
0answers
26 views

Calculating VaR with Monte Carlo simulation

I would like some help here :) I have a problem calculating VaR with the Monte Carlo Simulation. I have followed then next steps, is this a right way to calculate VaR or I need something more? ...
3
votes
0answers
48 views

Computing Value at Risk for portfolio in R

I know how to compute VaR with long positions using PerformanceAnalytics. What about a portfolio consisting in two equities A and B, 100 USD long positions in each, and 2 stock options for the same ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Value-at-Risk - Currency Swap

Can someone explain to me how to calculate the VaR (delta-normal-method) for a Currency Swap? Thanks in advance. Regards Alexander
0
votes
0answers
11 views

Do I need to update the standard deviation into GARCH for the next step conditional variance predict?

I need to compare two garch models, I try to do that by Value at Risk. In general, if I have an initial conditional variance, for example, h1, then I can predict the next N days conditional variance ...
1
vote
1answer
49 views

Why normalize only data for CDSs for PCA?

I'm reading a Credit Suisse Research Report on PCA. The report says that to preprocess the data, you should "Centre data (and normalize when considering CDS data)." Why would you only normalize ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

SRRI calculation for absolute return funds

I am trying to understand the formula for calculating SRRI for absolute return funds described in ESMA's guideline CESR/10-673, and Richard's answer has been of great help (What does this formula (to ...
2
votes
2answers
105 views

Positive VaR when calculation on Total Return Indexes?

I recently saw a VaR calculation, and I was wondering whether that calculation made sense. Here the details: 1. Construction of a total return bond portfolio index. By total return I mean that the ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

Adjusting simple volatitly for a VaR calc

I'm reviewing a VaR estimate adjusting a simple annualized volatility to an unwind period of x days - in this case for an equity position, using the following formula for a given annual volatility : ...
0
votes
3answers
186 views

Parametric/Analytical VaR

Suppose I want to calculate VaR for a known distribution with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ and $\alpha$-quantile as, $VaR_{\alpha}$ = $\mu + \sigma q_{\alpha}$. For a Gaussian distribution it is ...
2
votes
3answers
186 views

Ran multivariate linear regression, checked normal probability plot, residuals are not normal. What can I do?

One of the required assumptions for multiple linear regression is that residuals are normally distributed, correct? After running my regression, my normal probability plot is showing the typical ...
2
votes
2answers
139 views

How to compute the VaR for European Call, using the delta-normal method?

I have a European call option with current stock price $S_0$, strike $K$, risk-free rate $r$, volatility $\sigma$, and time to maturity $T$ years. I assume that the stock price at time $t$, which is ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

Can you use a t-test on bootstrapped Value at Risk (VaR) figures?

I need to compare VaR before and after the recession. I have a series of market returns for a period before, and a series of market returns for the period immediately after. Both have been ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Impulse Response Function, VAR

I calculated VAR coefficients and got stability coeficients. But then I calculated Impulse Response function and it turned out to be spike-shaped function (like cos(x)*exp(-x) with acute extremuma ...
2
votes
3answers
94 views

comparing modified VaR to ordinary VaR

What inferences can one draw when given a modified VaR at x% confidence and an ordinary VaR at x% confidence level. If the two are equal one inference can be that returns are gaussian but that also ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

Component VaR is additive but at what level

I have a portfolio data as ...
-1
votes
1answer
83 views

How to compute the historical VaR for a portfolio with long and short positions?

I would like to calculate historical Value at Risk for a portfolio that includes both long and short positions in forward contracts. The part that confuses me is that I wonder whether the VaR of the ...
3
votes
2answers
192 views

Where can I find a list of VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions?

Where can I find more VaR and CVaR formulas for continuous distributions? I collected a list here:
0
votes
2answers
121 views

Do people actually use VaR in professional settings?

VaR seems like such an obviously flawed metric, I am surprised that it seems to be used so much in the private sector. First, the way it is named and the way it is presented often imply it is the ...
1
vote
1answer
216 views

Elicitability of risk measures

I read that CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk, also Expected Shortfall), satisfies coherence, but not Elicitability. On the other hand, VaR satisfies Elicitability, but not coherence. What is ...
2
votes
0answers
83 views

Testing Statistical Significance of Various Portfolio Simulations

I'm trying to determine which of my portfolio simulations/backtests if any are good enough to put some money into. I outline an approach below and I'm interested in knowing: What problems are there ...
1
vote
1answer
720 views

Historical Value At Risk on option portfolio

I am new to Value at Risk subject in fact everything related to quant. Can any body validate the Value at Risk Model on the option price ? I am using a below explained approach . our portfolio ...
2
votes
2answers
197 views

Is there a way to adjust R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with EWMA or GARCH method?

Is there a way to upgrade R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with more risk sensitive approaches like EWMA or GARCH? Or is there another R package which can handle the issue?
0
votes
0answers
73 views

Correlating random numbers seems to skew the data

First off, apologies for the cross-post from mathematics, but I found this site later and think it would be a better fit for the question (besides, there has been no comments/answers on mathematics ...
2
votes
0answers
211 views

VaR mapping - Forward Foreign Currency Contract

I have a question about VaR mapping for FX forwards. Please bear with me while I outline the problem. Philippe Jorion's book discusses VaR mapping; a means to break down complex instruments into ...
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Is there a step-by-step guide for calculating portfolio VaR using monte carlo simulations

I am trying to determine a step-by-step algorithm for calculating a portfolio's VaR using monte carlo simulations. It seems to me that the literature for this is extraordinarily opaque for something ...
0
votes
0answers
401 views

Calculating the VaR from a GARCH(1,1) with Student-t innovations

I'm self-studying several questions on Ruey S. Tsay's teaching page. I'm experiencing some difficulty getting the correct answer for final exam 2013 Problem B Question 3. Given a Student-t GARCH ...
4
votes
2answers
263 views

quantiative risk measure how they are implemented in R and their use

So far I have just theoretical knowledge of risk measure and never used them in application. Therefore I have some basic question how risk measures are used in reality and how they are implemented in ...
2
votes
1answer
227 views

Value at Risk from Delta of a single asset portfolio

I am trying to figure out the following, for me unfamiliar type of question: Given is a single asset portfolio: the Delta of the portfolio is 15, the value of the asset is 10 and the daily volatility ...
0
votes
1answer
205 views

Difference between VaR and credit VaR?

Quick question: is there a difference between credit VaR and VaR or are they the same thing?
2
votes
1answer
109 views

Econometrics - Testing

If we have a time series of returns and two time series of indicators, how would we test the use of these indicators if they are autocorrelated or nonstationary (VAR Models dont produce significant ...
1
vote
1answer
70 views

What would be an alternative if the VaR model is not acceptable?

Assume we have a VaR model wich says : the lost should not exceed X for more 3 days and we come up with more days where the lost exceeded X, what is usually done for the VaR model ? Do we switch to ...
0
votes
1answer
162 views

How to backtest the VaR model?

I have a sorted historical P&L vector of 250 days and say, I want to calculate the 90% VaR on this distribution. I will look for the 225 element (90% * 250 = 225) and this will be my Value at ...
3
votes
2answers
154 views

How to Calculate a Monte Calo VaR estimation error

I'm performing a Monte Carlo to calculate value at risk (with a 3 dimension risk factor) Now, I would like to calculate the error of the estimation of the VaR with respect to the number of simulations ...
1
vote
1answer
90 views

Understanding the VaR example on wikipedia

In the wikipedia page on VaR The example says: ...
5
votes
3answers
726 views

Expected Shortfall (CVaR) Backtesting

I am writing my thesis on VaR and ES risk measurements and have encountered some issues with how to best test the accuracy of ES estimates. My understanding of the topic is that backtesting ES ...
1
vote
0answers
243 views

Fixed Income Var calculation

I'm trying to calculate var for a portfolio of fixed income securities. I initially want to just calculate undiversified VaR for each instrument. I'm doing the following for each instrument Take ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

VaR for FX forwards

I am trying to figure out some of the commonly used approaches to deal with FX forwards (in a currency portfolio containing spots, forwards and swaps) that would allow me to calculate the one day VaR ...
7
votes
0answers
202 views

Extreme Value Theory possible for portfolios with options?

Say you have a portfolio with long exposure to a few linear assets (stock indices) and short exposure to a nonlinear asset (say call options on one of the linear assets). I am interested in ...
0
votes
0answers
50 views

What mean factor behind a yield?

When quoting a yield of a transaction e.g. yield 3.8% behind the yield it is quote "factor" - in this case of a yield of 3.8% it is mentioned in brackets (factor 26.11) . The lower the yield the ...
1
vote
1answer
383 views

VaR Calculation - Covariance matrix is not positive semidefinite

This is a basic question. I have three assets, equally weighted, and all the mutual covariances are -1. Then, the covariance matrix looks like - ...
2
votes
1answer
635 views

How to calculate VaR/CVaR for private equity, hedge fund, and alternative investment portfolios?

What is the best method for calculating VaR/CVaR for private equity, hedge fund, and alternative investment portfolios? I have only historical monthly return for them.
9
votes
2answers
541 views

VaR for portfolio of funds

Let's assume we need to calculate a 1-day VaR for a portfolio of funds. Funds are traded, they can be bought and sold every day. We know exactly what the assets in each fund are. What is the right way ...
1
vote
2answers
153 views

Reasoning behind multiple names for the equivalent risk measures AVaR/ETL/ES/CVaR

Doe's any one know the history behind, or background of the multiple naming conventions for the equivalent risk functions. Different quant authors prefer using different names, does any one know why? ...
5
votes
0answers
1k views

VaR model Unconditional Coverage Tests: Is this extension of Kupiec POF test correct?

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
3
votes
1answer
102 views

How can I evaluate how poor a fit a parametric VaR result would be for a given holding?

I'm currently working on an application that, among other things, computes a one-day parametric VaR for security positions. I understand that the parametric method of computing VaR is a poor fit for ...
6
votes
1answer
474 views

Calculating VaR/CVaR on high frequency data and returns

As we converge on the minute time scale and below for our unit time interval, the return distributions tend to be leptokurtotic and more discretized (due to fixed values such as minimum price ...
1
vote
1answer
860 views

How to interpret/use VaR and Standard Deviation?

The parametric VaR is defined as follows: $$VaR=Z_a*Vol$$ Is this the best way to interpret how much risk is being taken on for a particular asset? How does one interpret volatility on its own if ...
4
votes
1answer
430 views

Calculating portfolio VaR for (custom) leveraged products

I have been searching online for a few days regarding how to calculate portfolio VaR for a portfolio consisting of leveraged products - but so far, I have not been able to come up with anything ...
4
votes
2answers
684 views

VaR for corporate bonds

I am trying to create a simple risk calculation for the portfolio (ignoring correlations for the moment). I have some corporate bonds with limited daily price changes. Any one have ideas how I can get ...
3
votes
1answer
160 views

How do I model risks for specific short-term short calls in a portfolio with limited data?

I'm trying to do some risk analysis on a portfolio of bonds, currency, stocks and short calls. The short calls expire in approximately 15-30 days and I've only got around 20 days of pricing data on ...