Value at Risk, a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

7
votes
4answers
456 views

Are these steps correct to calculate Value-at-Risk with a Monte Carlo simulation?

I have a problem calculating VaR with the Monte Carlo Simulation. I followed the next steps and would like know if it is a right way to calculate VaR or if I need something more? The steps ...
3
votes
1answer
50 views

Can I split my backtesting into multiple consecutive sub-periods?

I'm testing a model to estimate the VaR of a portfolio with different stocks. I used 1500 data to estimate some parameters, and now I have other 1500 data for backtesting purposes (for a total of 3000 ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

PCA for stand alone equity VaR

I am trying to compute equity VaR, forex VaR and total VaR on an international portfolio (10 stocks x 4 countries). Since I am not interested in the risk disaggregation among diffrent countries I was ...
12
votes
0answers
268 views

Extreme Value Theory possible for portfolios with options?

Say you have a portfolio with long exposure to a few linear assets (stock indices) and short exposure to a nonlinear asset (say call options on one of the linear assets). I am interested in ...
8
votes
0answers
184 views

Imposing Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors, R example

The code given below estimates a VEC model with 4 cointegrating vectors. It is a reproducible code, so just copy and paste into your R console (or script editor). ...
7
votes
0answers
179 views

Computing Value at Risk for portfolio in R

I know how to compute VaR with long positions using PerformanceAnalytics. What about a portfolio consisting in two equities A and B, 100 USD long positions in each, and 2 stock options for the same ...
7
votes
0answers
2k views

VaR model Unconditional Coverage Tests: Is this extension of Kupiec POF test correct?

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
3
votes
0answers
81 views

'GARCH - extreme value theory - copula' approach to estimate risk measures in R

I'm reading about this approach of using GARCH-EVT-copula methodology to separate univariate and joint estimation and then estimate for example VaR and ES. I wanted to try something similar, but my ...
3
votes
0answers
395 views

VaR backtesting with overlapping time intervals

Of course the issue here is dependence: can it be removed or accounted for (in independence tests too, which of course would be troublesome)? There's a lot of literature on regression in this setting, ...
2
votes
0answers
43 views

How to understand quadratic finance or practice of Value-at -Risk(VaR)

We define the following notions for a jointly normally distributed random vector $P=(P_1,...,P_n)$ with f the density function. $$\mu=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}(x_i-\mu_i)f_i(x_i)dx_i$$ $$\sigma^2_{ij}=...
2
votes
0answers
119 views

How to fit a VAR + GARCH in R

I should create a VAR model with Garch error in R but i don't know how to do it and which package to use. The Vector Autoregressive model (or VECM) should also have covariates in it. Then I should ...
2
votes
0answers
160 views

Testing Statistical Significance of Various Portfolio Simulations

I'm trying to determine which of my portfolio simulations/backtests if any are good enough to put some money into. I outline an approach below and I'm interested in knowing: What problems are there ...
2
votes
0answers
758 views

Calculating the VaR from a GARCH(1,1) with Student-t innovations

I'm self-studying several questions on Ruey S. Tsay's teaching page. I'm experiencing some difficulty getting the correct answer for final exam 2013 Problem B Question 3. Given a Student-t GARCH (1,1)...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

VAR FPCA analysis paper replication

I've been trying to replicate the following publication: toronto.edu/sjaimung/papers/VAR-FPCA.pdf but I havent been able to get the same results estimating the $\beta_{k}$ parameters. First, I got ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Making apriori Statements on VaR Backtests with a Garch Modelled VaR

so I want to find out, if its possible to find out for any backtest for the Value at Risk(Kupics POF or Christophersen's Markov Test), if it is possible to make apriori Statements on Testing results ( ...
1
vote
0answers
425 views

Fixed Income Var calculation

I'm trying to calculate var for a portfolio of fixed income securities. I initially want to just calculate undiversified VaR for each instrument. I'm doing the following for each instrument Take ...
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Adjusting VaR calculating for Correlation effects?

I have a question regarding VaR calculation for a portfolio using a historical approach and the corresponding correlation assumptions. When using a historical approach, we essentially offset ...
0
votes
0answers
28 views

Modelling nominal interest rates

What is the best model for nominal interest rates? ARMA, VAR, VEC, FAVAR, etc? I am a R user, so please advise me the most convenient R package to use as well. I intend to model US nominal interest ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

help with p&L vectors historical simulation

My question is about the calculation of the Value at Risk based on historical simulation. I have a table which contains the P&L-vectors of each day of one year. But I don't know what is contained ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views

Value at Risk Backtest type 2 error

I am wondering why in the most popular tests(Kupiec's POF, Christoffersen, the Null hypothesis is "our model is accurate". If we set our null hypothesis that way, we only have a decent result if we ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

Stress Testing of the portfolio containing Equities, Bonds and Options

I have a portfolio containing equities, bonds and options for which I have calculated VAR through variance covariance matrix. No I want to calculate the stressed VAR for which I have adopted the ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views

Monte Carlo - Inflated Asset Paths Due to Correlation

I built a MC generator for 12 assets based on Brownian Motion and noticed some strange results. Formula Used S(t) = Exp(S(t-1) + (mean - (vol. / 2)) + (stdev * Normal Distribution #)) S(0) = Ln(1) ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

VaR mapping fixed-for-floating swap

I came across a problem that asks what risk factors to map a 5 year semi annual settle fixed-for-floating swap to given it's just before the reset date. Since a FRN prices to par just before the reset ...
0
votes
0answers
112 views

Delta Volatility Surface Usage to value the option

I always find myself in the unknown charted territory when it comes to non-Linear Instruments. I come across the scenario, How to value the option using Delta Vol surface? Example I have CME traded ...
0
votes
0answers
54 views

Estimating Credit VaR using a simulation of joint defaults with a copula

I'm trying to follow the steps Malz gives to calculate Credit VaR using simulation of joint defaults with a copula. I'm having trouble understanding some of the steps. My math knowledge is rather ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Do I need to update the standard deviation into GARCH for the next step conditional variance predict?

I need to compare two garch models, I try to do that by Value at Risk. In general, if I have an initial conditional variance, for example, h1, then I can predict the next N days conditional variance ...
0
votes
0answers
83 views

Correlating random numbers seems to skew the data

First off, apologies for the cross-post from mathematics, but I found this site later and think it would be a better fit for the question (besides, there has been no comments/answers on mathematics ...
0
votes
0answers
53 views

What mean factor behind a yield?

When quoting a yield of a transaction e.g. yield 3.8% behind the yield it is quote "factor" - in this case of a yield of 3.8% it is mentioned in brackets (factor 26.11) . The lower the yield the ...