I am currently attempting to model and forecast volatility of bitcoin but have not been able to find a GARCH model that fits the data appropriately. I've used tick data sampled at 1 hour intervals ...
I am having trouble understanding how to calculate two-time scale variance as I do not have a strong mathematical background. Suppose I want to calculate the TSRV at 5 min intervals. Do I calculate ...
Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other ...
Suppose we train on M individuals consisting of T observations (i.e. TxM design matrix). The dependent variable is one-year return for each security (H = horizon of one year). In a factor model ...
There is a large literature covering volatility forecasts with high-frequency tick data. Much of this has surrounded the concept of "realized volatility", such as: "Realized Volatility and ...
The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...