A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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38 views

Impulse response function interpretation

I would need a quick help with Impulse response function interpretation which I have done after Vector autoregression model in stata. I need to understand how to interpret IRF graph or table values ...
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1answer
62 views

pricing with implied volatility surface

I am a newbee in Quantive finance. supposing I calibrate a smoothing implied volatility surface with cubic spline now. A minute later I want to price K=100,t=1 option, can I just find the point on ...
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1answer
37 views

volatility skew for lognormal model is flat?

Does anyone know why the volatility skew for lognormal model, such as BK, should be a flat line, meaning that implied black volatility for options will be same for those with different strike prices? ...
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1answer
62 views

MSRV estimation in R

What are the R packages that let you estimate Multi Scale Realized Volatility (MSRV)? So far I've only found highfrequency (which comes with Realized Kernel as well), but from what I understand it ...
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1answer
50 views

CCC-Garch predict

So I'm trying to measure the VaR of 2 stock with a multivariate GARCH model, so im using the CCC model. I need to predict the standard-diviation and the mean but the ...
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2answers
126 views

Which one is best Performance evaluation measures?

I want to compare the performance of various volatility models like GARCH, eGARCH, and gjrGARCH from actual volatility(computed using high frequency data). I found 3 common performance evaluation ...
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3answers
314 views

Why do volatility and correlation increase in times of crisis?

can somebody please explain to me why volatility and correlation increase in times of crisis? It is connected somehow to the herding effect. But I cannot really explain it. And also why are negative ...
2
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2answers
103 views

Calibrating stochastic volatility model from price history (not option prices)

For stochastic volatility models like Heston, it seems like the standard approach is to calibrate the models from option prices. This seems a bit like a chicken and an egg problem -- wouldn't we ...
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73 views

Comparing Implied Vol. to Historical Vol. using intraday data

I'm interested in estimating what my profit/loss would be for continuously gamma scalping a delta hedged option over the course of one day, using historical intra-day price data. I found an equation ...
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42 views

Motivation for hedging volatility using VIX ETNs

i wondered what the motivation for professional investors could be to engage in VIX ETNs. Would they even think about trading this kind of product? (they normally should have access to VIX options, ...
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34 views

Lambda in RiskMetrics for fixed income

What is the default lambda proposed in RiskMetrics for fixed income?
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32 views

Integrated Volatility in Diffusion Processes vs Volatility of Discrete Processes

In a Diffusion Process of the form $$dX_t = \mu(X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t)dW_t $$ the Integrated Volatility is defined as $$IV_t = \int_t^{t+1} \sigma^2(X_s)ds.$$ In this case, the Integrated Volatilty ...
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2answers
95 views

Smoothing factor of Exponential Moving Average

I'm trying to implement an Exponential Moving Average indicator, but I'm sort of stuck on the smoothing factor. What I've come up with: $$\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits_{k=0}^N \alpha^{k} P_k$$ Where N is ...
2
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0answers
45 views

OHLC Covarianc Estimation

Is there an R package which can estimate a covariance matrix using OHLC (Open/High/Low/Close) share prices for upwards of 40 shares using the Yang & Zhang method using daily data? I google ...
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1answer
161 views

BEKK - GARCH model in Stata

Is it possible to run BEKK-GARCH in Stata? mgarch is of a different model type and google provide me with no good hints.
3
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2answers
398 views

how do we know if the volatility which is quoted in market is Normal (Bachelier model) or log normal (Black 76)?

in market, many instruments are quoted in volatility, but how we can tell what kind of volatility is this? is it normal volatility, or lognormal volatility. because it affect our hedging positions so ...
9
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3answers
345 views

Historical Volatility vs Implied Volatility Performance in Pricing Options

I consistently read on academic papers, when pricing options, using implied volatility is better than using historical volatility. Because, market is more "forward-looking" and historical data is ...
1
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1answer
49 views

impact model what volatility to use

I am looking at the market impact paper here (http://www.cims.nyu.edu/~almgren/papers/costestim.pdf) and I had a question about volatility on page 11. On page 11 it is stated: "For volatility, we use ...
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3answers
172 views

Could we estimate a portfolio's volatility using a GARCH on the portfolio returns?

Estimating the volatility of a portfolio is typically done by first estimating the covariance matrix. This, however, can be difficult to do accurately and predictivly. This paper gives a nice summary ...
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83 views

Callable bond price sensitivity to Hull-White volatility changes

I'm using classic Hull-White model for short term interest rate dynamic: $$dr(t)=[\theta(t)-\alpha(t)r(t)]dt+\sigma(t)dW(t)$$ (Notation is quite intuitive, anyway I am using the same as Wikipedia ...
2
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3answers
391 views

How to predict daily range of forex?

I am trying to predict the intraday moving range of stock/forex (essentially, high-low). Here are some ideas based on what I've been reading recently (do not have quant background, so basic level of ...
2
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2answers
76 views

Volatility of Multiple Stocks

According to BSM, Stock Price follows log-normal distribution s.t. $$S(t)=S(0)*\exp(\sigma\sqrt t Z-(\sigma^2t)/2)$$ where Z is standard normal variable Then volatility of this stock is $\sigma \sqrt ...
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419 views

Why linear interpolation not appropriate for volatility surface construction?

We know linear interpolation is not appropriate for constructing a surface, but why? In the book, "Foreign Exchange Option Pricing: A Practitioners Guide", the author writes: native linear ...
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2answers
125 views

Estimating an appropriate haircut for illiquid stocks

I am trying to determine an appropriate haircut for a basket of illiquid stocks that barely traded during the year. Can someone suggest me an approach to estimate the risk? My dataset has a lot of ...
5
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2answers
294 views

How to calculate volatility on intraday data?

I have several weeks of minute-by-minute stock data (start and end prices, volume). Everything I've read so far leads me to believe there isn't a standard method for volatility, which is leaving me ...
6
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1answer
196 views

Density forecast of a GARCH model

I am currently working on developing a series of density forecasts and I am encountering some problems. I am working on weekly S&P 500 returns and the returns process is described as $r_{t} = ...
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2answers
141 views

How to user GARCH(p,q) to identify most volatile sector?

I would like to ask help concerning the utilization of GARCH(p,q) models to identify volatility. Suppose that I have daily closing prices of 6 financial sectors spanning several years, and I am ...
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1answer
425 views

Calculate and plot historical volatility with Python

I have downloaded historical data for FTSE from 1984 to now. What I would like to do is to graph volatility as a function of time. What I have written is: ...
7
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2answers
313 views

HFT to blame for Flash Crashes?

Some people 1, 2, 3 claim that High Frequency Trading is partly to blame for the extreme volatilities in the markets yesterday (24. August 2015). Is that true? Is the amount HFTs move even enough ...
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2answers
154 views

How to handle currency change in exchange rate volatility measurement

I am trying to measure exchange rate volatility in some countries and I am using their currencies against euro. Problem is that one of them is Slovakia which has changed the currency in 2009 from ...
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88 views

GARCH filtering and extreme value theory

We are evaluating a model for risk management based on extreme value theory using peaks over threshold and markov chain monte carlo methods. In doing this, we are firstly fitting a GARCH (we have ...
2
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1answer
67 views

How to measure the volatility of illiquid bond with no historical prices

The basket of corporate bonds that I am following barely traded after the issuance. Hence, there is no historical data to estimate the volatility. Can you suggest me a different approach to come up ...
5
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2answers
371 views

How to calibrate a volatility surface using SVI

I've read the following paper by Gatheral and Jacquier and have several question regarding the calibration of a volatility surface in a arbitrage free way and some theoretical aspects. Let me first ...
2
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1answer
274 views

2-step estimation of DCC GARCH model in Python

Embedded in this thread are multiple questions. I'm currently im the process of implementing a DCC GARCH forecast model on quantopian (a python-powered trading platform). The two step consists of ...
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2answers
417 views

Ideas about Stochastic volatility models

I am currently working on comparing different models for modelling the volatility and then pricing vanilla options (I use option prices on real stocks in order to calibrate my models and then I ...
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0answers
79 views

GARCH estimation does not work, error in my returns?

Hey everyone and I hope that there are some smarter people out here that can help me out with my problem...: I have trouble with my implementation of a GARCH(1,1) model and I do not know how to move ...
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1answer
318 views

Realized Volatility vs. Standard deviation of log returns

I am interested in calculating high frequency 5-minute intraday volatility. I am going to use the standard Realized volatility which is the square root of the sum of squared log returns. Given X is ...
5
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1answer
374 views

Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
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1answer
213 views

How is implied volatility derived?

How to compute Implied Volatility Calculation? The above link shows that there multiple ways to calculate implied volatility. My question is that for most of the common data sources like Bloomberg, ...
4
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1answer
202 views

Calculating 6-minute, 20-minute, 45-minute, and 3-hour volatility

I am looking to measure the volatility from the open of the market until a trade takes place and use that volatility in post-trade regressions to help explain transaction costs. A simple regression ...
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1answer
62 views

Interpreting and scaling of Realized Variance with sample data

I have some question about realized variance(RV) and I have some sample prices below to work with. You can run the R code below to build a vector of log returns. Three are 78 5-minute buckets in a ...
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48 views

Estimate volatility in forecast

I have a model with a rolling forecast. In each time step $t$, I predict the price for the next periods, e.g. $\hat{p}(t, t+1)$ and $\hat{p}(t, t+2)$. If I start in $t=0$ and arrive at $t=2$, I ...
2
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1answer
95 views

Garch models and assumption of stationarity ?

I found big inconsistency in the GARCH models and their underlying assumption of stationarity. GARCH models require that data must be stationary, where stationary means both mean and variance are ...
2
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3answers
193 views

Intuitive Explanation for Volatility Smile for Equity

I am trying to understand the intuitive reasoning for why volatility is more for deep OTM/ITM put/call then ATM..(why Simles for equity) Why ATM will not have more volatility as deep OTM/ITM option ...
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2answers
65 views

Approximating the IV of an underlying from Individual Options IV

Is it possible to get a calculation of IV from the volatility on components of the options chain? EG I have this data: ...
2
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2answers
343 views

How to interpret Realized Volatility and TSRV using R

I am looking at some high frequency data and I would like to know how to interpret and compare Realized volatility (RV) and Two Scale Realized Volatility (TSRV). References below. Given X is the log ...
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138 views

Monte Carlo, convexity and Risk-Neutral ZCB Pricing

I've built a simplistic Excel monte carlo model to price a zero-coupon bond, but it came up with a slightly unepxected result so I wanted to confirm whether my maths is just a little rusty or my model ...
3
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1answer
326 views

How to adapt a Moving Average period to market conditions?

I would like to know if there is some way to adapt the period of a moving average to market conditions like for instance the stop loss can be adapted to market conditions using the average true range. ...
10
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2answers
427 views

GARCH model, expectation of volatility?

Consider a time series $\{r_t\}$ following a standard GARCH(1,1) model, i.e., $$ r_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t,$$ where $\epsilon_t \sim N(0,1)$ and are i.i.d, and $$\sigma_t^2 = \omega + \alpha_1 ...
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2answers
81 views

Implied volatility and nonconstant volatility

John Hull states in his text that "AS the maturity of the option is increases the percentage impact of nonconstant volatility on (option) prices becomes more pronounced, but its percentage impact on ...