A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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What are the advantages/disadvantages of these approaches to deal with volatility surface?

I would like to know if someone could provide a summarized view of the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches on the volatility surface issues, such as: Local vol Stochastic Vol ...
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4answers
779 views

Do low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run?

A recent article from Forbes seems to indicate that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run. Does anyone have any supporting or contradicting evidence to this claim? ...
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Constructing an approximation of the S&P 500 volatility smile with publicly available data

Besides of the VIX there is another vol datum publicly available for the S&P 500: the SKEW. Do you know a procedure with which one can extrapolate other implied vols of the S&P 500 smile with ...
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3k views

Square root of time

I am writing about VaR and I am wondering about the following: We can scale the VaR to different time horizons by using the square root of time, which means, that the volatility is adjusted by square ...
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369 views

How to use a realized kernel?

I've read that realized kernels are the thing to use for calculating daily volatility from high-frequency data. So I've got minute data, how do I actually use such a kernel? Will it give me minute-ly ...
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432 views

Why are there so many different ways of calculating historical volatility

There appears to be several ways of calculating volatility: Price volatility (of which there are several variants): close to close high low range average of open, high, low and close Log returns ...
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3k views

Annualzing the log of daily returns riddle

Two popular ways to measure returns are Arithmetic returns and Log returns. Let's define arithmetic (simple period) returns as: P(t) - P(t-1) / P(t-1). Let's define log return as Ln( P(t)/P(t-1) ) or ...
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1answer
1k views

How to use Newey West covariance corrector?

I have implemented the following model: daily_vol(t+1) = A*daily_vol(t) + B*weekly_vol(t) + C*monthly_vol(t) + error where vol means volatility, and A, B, C are ...
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1answer
721 views

Problems with dealing with GARCH models and intra-day data

Short question would be "Which type of model from GARCH family is most suitable for modeling 5-minute data returns ?" but I've added some story to it. Long time ago I was preparing my thesis, one ...
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924 views

VIX = Vega of S&P500 options?

ok, so let assume I can predict the daily change in the VIX itself (in points) every day. what would be the best way to play this with OPTIONS? well, obviously VIX options, but if I can look at the ...
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483 views

Tradable Volatility

VIX (spot) has very nice features, including mean reversion. We all know that we can't trade VIX (spot). The closest we can get is using front-month future contracts. The problem I have with that is ...
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96 views

Model calibration to illiquid assets when pricing options with long maturities

Let us assume one is interested in pricing an option with a very long maturity (up to 20 or 30 years) on a liquid underlying. The market won't have liquid quotes for the higher maturities. Still you ...
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210 views

Do intraday volume and volatility share the same properties?

volatility clustering and mean reversion are very well known properties that one could use when trading. Traders, especially in options world, do take realized vol into account (e.g. by forecasting it ...
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254 views

What good papers of short term (<30 seconds) volatility estimation

I am looking for good papers of short term (<30 sec) volatility estimation AND short term volatility forecasting. Do you have something in mind ?
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445 views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
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685 views

Gamma vs. Volatility Risk

Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk? It leads me to ask: - What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it? Thinking about ...
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Does the debt load affect the volatility of equity?

Does the debt load of a company have an impact on the stock price of a company and its volatility? Also, how does the market react to the announcement of a company issuing bonds?
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303 views

Volatility arbitrage - how is the profit extracted?

Is there any paper that describes in detail how the profit is extracted in directional volatility bet (vol arb)? I mean in the case that I bet the realized volatility will be lower than currently ...
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1answer
154 views

Is Cubic spline Interpolation on swaption Volatility arbitrage free?

If I use interpolation technique such as cubic spline to estimate volatility of Swaption with different strike,(with a given forward rate, swap and option maturity) will this be arbitrage free? What ...
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265 views

Reference on Electronic volatility trading [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book. I recently came in contact with a quant desk that traded volatility. The discussion only highlited my ...
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1answer
629 views

Can American options with no dividends and zero risk-free rate be treated as European?

Let's say you've got American options on a future of a stock index. There are no dividends, and no risk-free rate either (assume $r=0$). Can these options then be treated as European from the ...
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298 views

Expected value of Black-Scholes

(Apologies for any formatting mistakes) Within the Black Scholes model, given that you are estimating the volatility from historical data - and all other parameters assumed exact - one usually ...
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535 views

SKEW and VIX relations?

My question is about the CBOE published index VIX and SKEW. To start with, I consider working on the variance dynamics. I calibrate the market data (such as VIX and VIX futures) into the Heston ...
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409 views

Black-Equivalent Volatility

Can Someone Explain to me what this term means, and how it's used?
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175 views

Regime-Switching Model for detecting market shifts

I'm always wondering whether anyone has utilized regime-switching models successfully in forecasting or trading. Academia has long discussed this topic in-depth, such as using Regime Switching ...
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4answers
2k views

How to calculate the implied volatility using the binomial options pricing model

I want to calculate IV for american options with dividends. So far I have found algorithms to calculate the option price given a volatility. Please can you point me to paper or implementation (R, ...
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1answer
424 views

Stability of correlations and volatility

I had a discussion recently about the stability of volatilities and correlations. If we take for example stocks and bonds (think of DAX and Bund) then I have seen changing volatilities (something like ...
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804 views

How to calculate optimal standard deviation bands for trading?

I am trading with standard deviation bands (6 bands) on de-trended data. How can I find the most profitable signals with neural network or GA with standard deviation bands? Should I first find the ...
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762 views

How to derive appropriate volatility for a binary option (with strike/term) from market data?

I am valuing a binary FX option (european) with a defined strike and term (2Y). I'm using a closed form solution based on Black-Scholes framework. How can I derive the appropriate volatility to use ...
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364 views

Volatility models using Rugarch

I have estimated sGARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH, which some for particular models are significant. For others, the alpha remain insignificant using various innovations such as the skewed variants of the ...
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3answers
1k views

How to normalize different instruments by volatility?

I'm trying to think on a way to normalize stocks to be on the same scale depending on their recent volatility. Is there some theoretical reference on the subject or and experience you can share?
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510 views

What research is available on the performance of convertible bond arbitrage models?

The basic principles of convertible bond arbitrage have been clear at least since Thorp and Kassouf (1967). For those who are not familiar, the arbitrage entails purchasing a convertible bond and ...
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77 views

Calculating volatility of inhomogeneous time series

I am reading an article by Zumbach and Müller whose name is Operators on Inhomogeneous Time Series. This is interesting in general, but my main goal is to learn a good and efficient method to ...
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298 views

Asymmetric Volatility Modeling (Interpretation)

I am currently writing a paper on asymmetric volatility modeling of brent, gold, silver, wheat, soybean and corn from 1986-2012 and divided them into 4 sub-sample periods (i.e. 1986-1991, 1991-1997, ...
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132 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
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267 views

Black-Scholes and Fundamentals

So basically $dS_t=\mu S_tdt+\sigma S_tdWt$ and $\mu=r-\frac12\sigma^2$ I have just been thinking about this later equation. This is very interesting because it ties together risk-free ...
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1answer
168 views

Why parameterize the Black Scholes implied volatility surface?

I know that SVI volatility surfaces are very popular among financial practitioners. I understand that this is not really a model for some underlying asset (such as Black Scholes, Heston etc.) but ...
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relation between asset's and equity volatilities - merton model

In terms of Merton credit risk model need to find the initial value of counterparty's assets and the volatility of the assets. Both value are not directly observable thus we have to approximate them ...
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423 views

Avoiding negative volatility when applying Heston model

When applying the Heston model to generate the sample volatility surface, some of the volatility value will be negative. I am just wondering what do practioners normally do with these negative value. ...
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1answer
1k views

What is the “leverage effect” for stocks?

I've read the so-called "leverage-effect" for stocks models the fact that if a company is leveraged, its volatility should increase as the stock price moves lower and closer to the level of debt. Can ...
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GJR-GARCH Model In R

Any idea how to estimate GJR-GARCH models in R? Is there any particular library like fGarch that supports such models?
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Why FX Vanilla Options are quoted in volatility

I've been curious why vanilla options are quoted (and traded) in terms of volatility. Considering that every financial institution has its own options pricing model, volatility as an input would cause ...
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426 views

When gains are made: Overnight or during trading hours? What is the connection to volatility?

Falkenblog reports an interesting finding: All of the stock returns since 1993 are from overnight returns and cross-sectionally, volatility receives a positive overnight risk premium, a negative ...
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114 views

economic facts that causes the financial time series to be heavy tailed

When reading a tutorail on extreme value theory, I once meet the following claim ...
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168 views

What return equation is Engle referring to in his Nobel lecture?

Engle comments in "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" that If the price of risk were constant over time, then rising conditional variances would translate linearly ...
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258 views

Transformation to reduce standard deviation without changing median

Consider some negative skew and high kurtosis return time-series $X_t$. I do not know the functional form of the pdf of $X_t$ and have about 150,000 data points. Suppose that I was to create an ...
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367 views

Backtesting VaR model violation independence

I am interested in hearing about the practitioner state of the art for testing the time independence of a VaR model (i.e. that VaR violations are independent in time). There are a number of tests in ...
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1answer
79 views

Time-Varying Volatility and Conditional Likelihood

Engle's comment in his seminal paper "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" mentions that I had recently worked extensively with the Kalman Filter and knew that a ...
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1answer
196 views

Evaluation volatility with Garch model

I want to forecast the volatility (with Garch) of a canadian stock in 5 months with daily returns. How many data do I have to collect ? Thanks.
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277 views

How to compare volatility models?

What are the most popular ways to compare volatility models? Suppose I wanted to compare the forecasting accuracy of a GARCH(1,1) model with the historic 30 day volatility. What method should I use? ...