A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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150 views

How to calculate modeled asset volatility by industry factor?

Currently I am working with huge data frame which consists of a lot firms. For each firm in my sample I calculated asset volatility ( I am using Merton default probability model, so I have used 2 ...
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1answer
183 views

What return equation is Engle referring to in his Nobel lecture?

Engle comments in "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" that If the price of risk were constant over time, then rising conditional variances would translate linearly ...
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154 views

What's the link between EURIBOR3M futures volatility and rates volatility?

If I am not wrong, EURIBOR3M futures with maturity $T$, whose price is $F_{T}$, are quoted like contracts which express the underlying forward rates, $r_{T}$, as $$r_{T}=\frac{100-F_{T}}{100}$$ Now ...
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1answer
98 views

Time-Varying Volatility and Conditional Likelihood

Engle's comment in his seminal paper "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" mentions that I had recently worked extensively with the Kalman Filter and knew that a ...
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0answers
223 views

Does Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003) VIX building approach underestimate volatility?

From a paper that shortly addresses an alternative approach to VIX-like index building: To test this approach, I've built a fake book of B&S options with constant volatility equal to ...
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92 views

Derivation of variance of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996) Zhou 1996 Any help would be ...
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1answer
203 views

Directional View of Volatility

What is an option strategy that someone could employ to simply go long/short volatility?? Assuming I want 0 delta(0 gamma if possible) risk in my option position, how do I take a directional view on ...
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1answer
164 views

Model calibration to illiquid assets when pricing options with long maturities

Let us assume one is interested in pricing an option with a very long maturity (up to 20 or 30 years) on a liquid underlying. The market won't have liquid quotes for the higher maturities. Still you ...
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3answers
197 views

Why are short expiries associated with more pronounced volatility skews?

I've noticed that for a given strike price, the shorter expiration dates of options have more pronounced volatilities why is that?
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1answer
331 views

Calibrating Hull-White using volatility data

I would like to calibrate Hull-White model using volatility data.I am using [Park (2004)] paper as a reference. He suggests to minimize the following objective function: where the first term is ...
2
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0answers
187 views

Reasoning for Bloomberg's short rate volatilty calculation

Bloomberg, in its documentation, explains that it calculates the short rate volatility for its Hull White implementation by multiplying the e.g. 10y IRS rate (divided by 100) by the 10y cap vol. Why? ...
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1answer
173 views

Volatility calculation for intra-day cash-or-nothing call binary option

Firstly, I do not have a quant finance background. This is new to me, and I imagine that this is a basic question for this group. I am calculating the price of a binary/digital option with ...
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1answer
311 views

what's the relationship between forecasted stock volatility and implied volatility?(option)

what's the relationship between forecasted stock volatility and implied volatility? I know that implied volatility is the volatility calculated by BS formula, is there any relationship between implied ...
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0answers
94 views

Recalibrating SABR parameters for Swaption ATM volatility

I understand that the ATM volatility of Swaption moves quite frequently and the SABR will need to be recalibrated. Which parameter should I recalibrate? Is there any financial meanings why we only ...
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1answer
128 views

First Exit Time Based Volatility

I'm hoping that someone could help better explain why $\sigma$ (equation 2.19) must be multiplied by $\frac{4n}{4n + 1}$. Obviously all the math is there. Perhaps someone can make this easier to ...
4
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1answer
256 views

Is Cubic spline Interpolation on swaption Volatility arbitrage free?

If I use interpolation technique such as cubic spline to estimate volatility of Swaption with different strike,(with a given forward rate, swap and option maturity) will this be arbitrage free? What ...
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65 views

Clarifying the way in counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg

I would like to confirm the way to counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg. Given an option with issue date from 14/1/2014 to 13/1/2019, is the proper way to ...
4
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2answers
380 views

Expected value of Black-Scholes

(Apologies for any formatting mistakes) Within the Black Scholes model, given that you are estimating the volatility from historical data - and all other parameters assumed exact - one usually ...
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1answer
130 views

What is the realized volatility's estimation error?

Given an estimation procedure and real data, how would one compute the mean squared error? What value represents the "true" realized volatility in the case of calculating the Mean Squared Error in ...
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4answers
259 views

Error message in calculation Implied Volatility

I am unsuccessfully trying to find the Implied Volatilities for the SPX on a given date using information of the CBOE, as well as Open Interest, but as I run the code I am getting and error message ...
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3answers
913 views

How to trade volatility?

I am analyzing the volatility of financial stock returns and let's say I have a pretty good model to forecast tomorrows volatility of the stock returns. So let's say for simplicity reasons I have a ...
3
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1answer
240 views

Evaluation volatility with Garch model

I want to forecast the volatility (with Garch) of a canadian stock in 5 months with daily returns. How many data do I have to collect ? Thanks.
5
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2answers
574 views

How to use a realized kernel?

I've read that realized kernels are the thing to use for calculating daily volatility from high-frequency data. So I've got minute data, how do I actually use such a kernel? Will it give me minute-ly ...
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1answer
176 views

Basics about the scaling property of volatility

It is a usual practice to calculate realized volatility $\sigma$ using the square root of the usual variance estimator $\hat{{\sigma}²}$. This is done using the stock log returns (practitioners ...
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267 views

Extrapolating implied volatilities to small time

Could anyone please direct me to literature or methods for extrapolating the implied volatility surface towards small expiry? I'm looking to price very short time to expiry binary options (e.g. 5 ...
3
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2answers
436 views

How to compare volatility models?

What are the most popular ways to compare volatility models? Suppose I wanted to compare the forecasting accuracy of a GARCH(1,1) model with the historic 30 day volatility. What method should I use? ...
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1answer
151 views

evaluation of volatility models using loss functions

This question has two parts, What is the state of the art in an academic or public knowledge sense of volatility forecast model evaluation? Since there are many methods out in the wild, and do ...
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1answer
379 views

What good papers of short term (<30 seconds) volatility estimation [duplicate]

I am looking for good papers of short term (<30 sec) volatility estimation AND short term volatility forecasting. Do you have something in mind ?
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1answer
719 views

Fitting a GARCH BEKK model

I am trying to find whether there is significant volatility transmission between two price series (t=1000). A literature review learned me that the GARCH BEKK model is suitable for this. The SAS ...
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1answer
356 views

How to compute a sector's volatility within a portfolio?

Assume I have a large portfolio of equities spread across three sectors. I am attempting to compute the volatility of these sectors within the portfolio considering the cross correlations among the ...
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3answers
3k views

relation between asset's and equity volatilities - merton model

In terms of Merton credit risk model need to find the initial value of counterparty's assets and the volatility of the assets. Both value are not directly observable thus we have to approximate them ...
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2answers
256 views

Electricity volatility smile

In the electricity sector, what should be the shape of the volatility smile? a behavior similar to other commodities with a convex curve, decreasing first and then growing to the initial level. or ...
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3answers
219 views

Black model - volatility estimation

In the Black (1976) model: We should use the settlement prices of the underlying futures contract in order to estimate the volatility, right? Or can we also use the spot prices? Because the ...
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0answers
27 views

explanation for preference of volatilities in option premium quotes [duplicate]

could any one suggest an explanation for why premium in option markets (currency or otherwise) are quoted as volatilities rather than (premium/abs(spot price - settlement price)) or some other ...
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3answers
1k views

How to calculate return rates with negative prices?

I'm dealing with electricity options and I'm considering the possibilty of negative prices. I want two estimate the historic volatility. However, an arithmetic mean doesn't feel appropriate and ...
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2answers
325 views

how to calculate more efficient volatility figure than historical volatility?

can we use alpha value to calculate option price instead of historical volatility. And if we can please explain how. I am doing my MMS in Finance and this for a project i am doing. the project is ...
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4answers
3k views

How to calculate the implied volatility using the binomial options pricing model

I want to calculate IV for american options with dividends. So far I have found algorithms to calculate the option price given a volatility. Please can you point me to paper or implementation (R, ...
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1answer
267 views

Volatility Estimation

Let say I ran two strategies and got its weights at each rebalance and equity curves. I would like to combine these systems to get the performance if I were to trade them concurrently from a portfolio ...
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2answers
569 views

Is the price of European put option monotone in volatility if we replace BM in Black-Scholes with a general Levy process?

Under the Black-Scholes model, we have the European put option is $\mathbb{E} [e^{-rt}(K-S_t)]$, where we take $\log(S_t)=X_t$ and $dX_t= \sigma dW_t - \dfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 dt + rdt$. Here the option ...
7
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1answer
858 views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
2
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1answer
278 views

Which prices to use to compute realized volatility?

For computation of realized volatility, especially range based volatility, deal prices are commonly used. If Level I data available should the deals data still be used or another measures of spot ...
11
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1answer
929 views

So many volatility models. Any comparisons of them?

Are there any papers that make an explicit contrast/comparison of the following (or other) vol models in terms of the suitability for addressing some empirical problem? Wavelet multiresolution ...
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2answers
742 views

Relationship between European, American options volatility

Suppose, if the price of a European option (say a put) can be shown to be monotone in volatility (say for any maturity), does it follow that American options has to be monotone in volatility? ...
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2answers
666 views

Volatility of a rolling window strategy

What methods can be applied to determine the volatility of strategy using a rolling window? Using normal standard deviation would bias the results as the returns will be highly correlated. Although, ...
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0answers
89 views

How to measure if variance is greater at a certain time of day?

I'm not very fluent in the quant vernacular, so perhaps the nature of my question will be better illustrated as a hypothesis. One market has closed and another market elsewhere on Spaceship Earth is ...
2
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2answers
243 views

Time Varying Volatility

If stock returns ($r_t$) are not auto correlated why is that the squared term of the returns (volatility) exhibit serial correlation? Does heteroskedacity, by its nature, imply that time varying ...
3
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2answers
305 views

Transformation to reduce standard deviation without changing median

Consider some negative skew and high kurtosis return time-series $X_t$. I do not know the functional form of the pdf of $X_t$ and have about 150,000 data points. Suppose that I was to create an ...
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2answers
411 views

How to estimate the following model?

Suppose I have the following model: $$r_t=\sigma_t * \epsilon_t$$ where $r_t$ is the return at time t, $\sigma_t$ is the volatility, the model used to model this volatility is an exponentially ...
8
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3answers
2k views

Gamma vs. Volatility Risk

Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk? It leads me to ask: - What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it? Thinking about ...
4
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2answers
843 views

Fitting distributions to financial data using volatility model to estimate VaR

I want to fit a distribution to my financial data using a volatility model to estimate the VaR. So in case of a normal distribution, this would be very easy, I assume the returns to follow a normal ...