A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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Standard Deviation as listed in Rebonato's Volatility and Correlation: Binomial Replication 2.3.4 Worked-Out Example

I am reading Rebonato's Volatility and Correlation (2nd Edition) and I think it's a great book. I'm having difficulty trying to derive a formula he used that he described as the expression for ...
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93 views

Adjusting for variance bias when using overlapping data

I'm in the process of constructing volatility cones for several assets and I want to make sure the data is free of biases. I know that using overlapping data introduces an artificial degree of ...
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147 views

What's the link between EURIBOR3M futures volatility and rates volatility?

If I am not wrong, EURIBOR3M futures with maturity $T$, whose price is $F_{T}$, are quoted like contracts which express the underlying forward rates, $r_{T}$, as $$r_{T}=\frac{100-F_{T}}{100}$$ Now ...
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79 views

Recalibrating SABR parameters for Swaption ATM volatility

I understand that the ATM volatility of Swaption moves quite frequently and the SABR will need to be recalibrated. Which parameter should I recalibrate? Is there any financial meanings why we only ...
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59 views

Clarifying the way in counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg

I would like to confirm the way to counting number of weeks for calculating historical weekly volatility in Bloomberg. Given an option with issue date from 14/1/2014 to 13/1/2019, is the proper way to ...
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86 views

How to measure if variance is greater at a certain time of day?

I'm not very fluent in the quant vernacular, so perhaps the nature of my question will be better illustrated as a hypothesis. One market has closed and another market elsewhere on Spaceship Earth is ...
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78 views

How to trade risk-adjusted returns?

Why does dividing daily returns by daily range eliminates fat tails and results in an (almost) gaussian distribution? And how could that distribution be exploited to enter trades?
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568 views

Using volatility cycles to switch between trend following & range bound trading? [closed]

"...a low volatility environment is usually a good environment for trend following strategies; see Jez Liberty’s state of trend following report here..." ...
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1answer
114 views

First Exit Time Based Volatility

I'm hoping that someone could help better explain why $\sigma$ (equation 2.19) must be multiplied by $\frac{4n}{4n + 1}$. Obviously all the math is there. Perhaps someone can make this easier to ...
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452 views

Why the implied volatilities calculated are so different

I Calculated facebook option(expired in 12/4/13) Implied Volatility with the Bisection Method. The program will be attached at the end. The results for different strike prices are so different: ...
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233 views

compute FX forward from broker's data

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
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26 views

Transaction Costs Measure ATOP: What does it mean and exactly measure?

I went through some presentations about LowVol strategies for some indices. In the presentations were tables with average returns, vola, Sharp ratio and ATOP. I have no clue what this ATOP is supposed ...
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99 views

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model, Historical vol or Implied vol or Future Vol or Actual vol.
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79 views

What math concepts are used in designing volatility models

What topics in statistics and mathematics do I need to understand thoroughly before I can start to dabble with stochastic volatility models and volatility arbitrage?
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200 views

Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
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284 views

Beta of FTSE100 stocks against benchmark index FTSE100

first post so if I write something silly don't hold it against me. I calculated beta for almost all the stocks that compose the FTSE100. All have beta < 1. This, as far as I understand it, means ...
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3answers
473 views

Trading spot volatility

I am reading a paper that very briefly talks about some volatility arbitrage strategies. It's so brief that I do not exactly understand how it works. It says one of the strategy is based on "short ...
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88 views

Volatility swaps historical data

I am preparing a study about Volatility and Variance Swaps. Does anyone know where I can found historical public data regarding this instruments? Thanks!
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598 views

Optimal lag length selection criterion in GARCH(p,q) model using MATLAB

As assessed by the title, I'm trying to estimate a GARCH(p,q) model to forecast stock market volatility and, in order to be able to do that, I've to identify the optimal number of lags, p and q, to ...
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210 views

Black model - volatility estimation

In the Black (1976) model: We should use the settlement prices of the underlying futures contract in order to estimate the volatility, right? Or can we also use the spot prices? Because the ...
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188 views

volatility Table and BS formula

assume I have implied FX volatility Delta-Term table from broker. I have time noticed as 2M, 3M. what do I have to put into BS formula, is it 2/12 or "count the business days"/"daycount basis"? I am ...
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1answer
45 views

What are the parameters of the function PORTVAR in Matlab?

According to the Matlab help, Portvar will give the "Variance for portfolio of assets" by entering the returns of the Assets and the corresponding weight. However, it does not explain the parameters ...
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92 views

Is the volatility for these two SDEs the same

$$ (1) \ \ d\left(\frac{1}{S_t}\right) =\frac{1}{S_t}\left(\sigma^2-r\right)dt +\frac{1}{S_t}\sigma dW_t $$ and $$ (2) \ \ dS_t = S_t rdt + \sigma S_t dW_t $$ How can you prove that?
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29 views

Normal vol - convention

apologies for the simplicity of the question, but I was wondering: what is the quoting convention for normal (bps) volatility? Say I have the following time series of data: Date Close Abs Change ...
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81 views

Where can I find a list of market-moving news announcements for different asset classes?

Different asset classes have different important news announcements that move the markets intraday. For instance, oil volatility increases after the EIA Petroleum Status Report, but that announcement ...
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108 views

What makes investors risk averse?

There are some regularly-occuring events that coincide with a rise in the implied volatility of an asset. For example, in advance of an firm's annual earnings report, it is typically expensive to buy ...
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89 views

Constructing Volatility Smile from Implied Volatility & Delta

I have implied volatility data for call and put options (expiring in 1 month from any given date) for a particular stock. In addition, I have the delta for the options. However, I have no information ...
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117 views

Where can I find historical data for volatility estimation?

I'm trying to estimate volatility following Shreve book, so I need observations of $f(t_j,t_j+\tau_k)$ and $f(t_j+\delta,t_j+\tau_k)$, where $t_J<t_{J-1}<\dots<0$ and $\tau_k$ are relative ...
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120 views

Close price or adjclose price to calculate volatility?

To calculate volatility, which price in FTSE table is used? When do we use close price for calculating volatility? Do we use adjclose (adjusted close price) for calculating volatility as well? when ...
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122 views

What is the realized volatility's estimation error?

Given an estimation procedure and real data, how would one compute the mean squared error? What value represents the "true" realized volatility in the case of calculating the Mean Squared Error in ...
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275 views

How to compute a sector's volatility within a portfolio?

Assume I have a large portfolio of equities spread across three sectors. I am attempting to compute the volatility of these sectors within the portfolio considering the cross correlations among the ...
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924 views

How to calculate return rates with negative prices?

I'm dealing with electricity options and I'm considering the possibilty of negative prices. I want two estimate the historic volatility. However, an arithmetic mean doesn't feel appropriate and ...
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114 views

Volatility Index Weighting Scheme

Among the several weighting schemes used for constructing volatility indices, which ones are the best for forecasting (realized) volatility? I've constructed a volatility index for emerging markets ...
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33 views

Comparing Portfolio Volatility with Index Volatility seems a wrong method?

thanks for looking into this question. I am comparing an investment strategy against the S&P 500 for a financial article I'm writing. I compute volatility of the Portfolio in this way, as the ...
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36 views

I have volatility of a portfolio in year 1 and in year 2. How do I calculate the volatility over the total 2-year period?

thanks for looking into this question. See the picture below (better is right-mousebutton - open in new tab). I also have the price and return data of the Stocks if that's needed to calculate the ...
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25 views

I have portfolio volatility for year 1 and for year 2. What is portfolio volatility for year 1 and 2 combined?

Thanks for looking into this question. Portfolio volatility in year 1 = 15%. Portfolio volatility in year 2 = 20%. What is the portfolio volatility over the timespan year 1 and 2 combined? Is it ...
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47 views

I have portfolio volatility for individual years, can I use them to compute portfolio volatiltiy for subperiods?

Thanks for opening this question. I have constructed some rules for a portfolio with annual rebalancing and am backtesting it for the period 1990-2014. I want to compare the risk-adjusted return to ...
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45 views

How do I track implied volatility of specific delta?

I'm a newbie with respects to volatility trading and options. I recently purchased a book on the topic called "Trading Implied Volatility -An introduction" by Simon Gleadall. It's been one of the most ...
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33 views

volatility grouping

I was working on risk levels of a combined portolfio (includes options,futures as well as stock). While using greeks we can asses some value of a portolio, but when one needs to assess some kind of ...
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43 views

Vanna-Volga method to infer vol surface with just few realtime tick data

My broker gives me the opportunity to get realtime tick data for up to 50 fields. Since I would like to monitor option chains, this amount of data is very limited. Suppose I am interested in ...
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18 views

Residual maturity vol

The following question is probably (from a practical point of view) more relevant for EM markets which typically exhibit a more pronounced forward volatility compared to spot volatility. Say I buy a ...
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26 views

How to compare the volatility of quarterly p&l of two firms in the same sector?

I want to compare the volatility of the historical quarterly profit and loss data of two or more firms operating in the same sector and determine whether the volatility of p&l of these firms is ...
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53 views

Fixed volatility portfolio with max returns creates skewed results

I am trying to create a portfolio of only four components using the mean-variance optimization (MVO). I am setting up my problem such that I want to maximize the expected returns with a fixed vol ...
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59 views

Negative Risky vs Negative Butterfly

I understand that in regard to FX options, a volatility smile with negative Risk Reversals is effectively indicating that the spot market for a given currency pair is in decline (puts over). In ...
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60 views

commodity futures pricing vs. underlying spot rates in volatile markets, at depth of book

Are futures contracts or their underlying spot rates, more or less efficient, at depth of market, with volatility? Say for example we have: 1 E7 (CME contract) = 62,500 euro Should the future or ...
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32 views

Common point between IR and Vol option pricing models?

What is the common point between pricing models on options on Interest Rates and options on Volatility?
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144 views

Controling ex-post volatility by ex-ante limits

In the context of mutual funds the KID directive forces us to calculate 5 year ex-post volatility of a (market) fund (weekly returns). Thus each week we look back in the past and calculate volatility ...
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65 views

Volatility clustering but (G)ARCH not good fit

I'm looking at a time series that appears to be white noise. The ACF/PACF are in the test bounds. Applying the Ljung-Box test for various (maximum) lags gives me high p-values (i. e. I cannot reject ...
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65 views

calculation of parameters in Stochastic Volatility

I want to compare volatility models from constant volatility, implied, time-varying (ARCH, etc) and stochastic volatility. I can find the process to calculate constant, implied and ARCH and GARCH ...
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75 views

Stochastic Volatility for Stocks, FTSE

Can someone help me with calculating Stochastic Volatility (of stocks and options) using SAS or R or Matlab please? I am new to SAS and I am trying to use Heston model, White-Hull model or any other ...