A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

2
votes
3answers
1k views

Trading a synthetic replication of the VVIX (volatility of VIX)

In the same spirit as this question: Trading a synthetic replication of the VIX index. The VVIX tracks the volatility of the VIX. One cannot directly buy and sell the VVIX index and, as opposed to ...
10
votes
1answer
386 views

Is Arithmetic Return Bias Basis of Low Vol Anomaly?

An observation in capital markets is that the connection between return and risk (measured as volatility) is not that straightforward (at least not as modern portfolio theory assumes). One interesting ...
2
votes
1answer
189 views

How to enumerate all the possible portfolios with a given target volatility?

Let's say I have $n$ assets and their returns are stored in a matrix $X \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$ (i.e. I have $m$ returns for each of them. The covariance matrix of the returns is $\Sigma \in ...
2
votes
2answers
759 views

Should I use GARCH volatility or standard deviation in cross-sectional regression?

I want to do a cross-sectional study where the historical, medium-long run volatility of some return series (call it $R_t$) is included as a regressor. Which of the following two estimates of ...
17
votes
5answers
4k views

Skew arbitrage: How can you realize the skewness of the underlying?

It's not clear to me how to realize skewness. In other words, how do you implement skew arbitrage? There seems to be no well-known recipe like in volatility arbitrage. Volatility arbitrage (or ...
3
votes
2answers
535 views

Backtesting VaR model violation independence

I am interested in hearing about the practitioner state of the art for testing the time independence of a VaR model (i.e. that VaR violations are independent in time). There are a number of tests in ...
3
votes
2answers
474 views

When gains are made: Overnight or during trading hours? What is the connection to volatility?

Falkenblog reports an interesting finding: All of the stock returns since 1993 are from overnight returns and cross-sectionally, volatility receives a positive overnight risk premium, a negative ...
3
votes
0answers
239 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - ...
2
votes
1answer
196 views

How to group mutual funds by volatility?

I want to group Mutual Funds by their volatility. Ideally, I would like to end up with the mutual funds beings attached to different groups: High volatility Medium volatility Low Volatility My ...
1
vote
1answer
393 views

Why does $\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ of a factor model measure risk?

$\hat{\epsilon}'\hat{\epsilon}$ from the market model: $R_{it} - \hat{\alpha} - \hat{\beta}R_{mt} = \hat{\epsilon}$, or from a factor model such as the Fama-French 3 factor model, is often used in the ...
4
votes
2answers
931 views

How to calculate optimal standard deviation bands for trading?

I am trading with standard deviation bands (6 bands) on de-trended data. How can I find the most profitable signals with neural network or GA with standard deviation bands? Should I first find the ...
2
votes
0answers
79 views

How to trade risk-adjusted returns?

Why does dividing daily returns by daily range eliminates fat tails and results in an (almost) gaussian distribution? And how could that distribution be exploited to enter trades?
4
votes
0answers
155 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

What does this formula (to derive annualized volatility from VaR) mean?

I'm faced with the formula shown in the image below, which I just don't understand, in part because I've no grounding in stats, and in part because I don't even understand the notation: What's ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

VIX = Vega of S&P500 options?

ok, so let assume I can predict the daily change in the VIX itself (in points) every day. what would be the best way to play this with OPTIONS? well, obviously VIX options, but if I can look at the ...
6
votes
2answers
708 views

Varswap Basis - What is it in practice?

What is the varswap basis? I am not completely sure what this number represents. Is it the basis between the estimated future realized volatility and the vol surface implied volatilty at a specified ...
3
votes
1answer
244 views

Does the correlation amongst stocks rise when stock values decline?

Is there any research on whether the correlations among stocks rise when stock indices decline? Which model could account and test for that effect ? Maybe GARCH-BEKK, or some models using copulas?
9
votes
5answers
9k views

Why would an investor trade a variance swap over a volatility swap?

Why would an investor trade a variance swap over a volatility swap? Is it simply related to the leverage involved in a Var (i.e. sigma-squared) or is there something else to it?
1
vote
1answer
135 views

Brent Crude Data

I am trying to locate historical volatility data (5+ years) for Brent Crude? Does anyone know where I might be able to source such data?
5
votes
3answers
2k views

How to normalize different instruments by volatility?

I'm trying to think on a way to normalize stocks to be on the same scale depending on their recent volatility. Is there some theoretical reference on the subject or and experience you can share?
2
votes
0answers
68 views

What models for backing out Equity IVOL [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How should I calculate the implied volatility of an American option in a real-time production environment? I am starting a project and would be grateful for some ...
3
votes
1answer
138 views

market completion under stochastic volatility model

Consider a stochastic volatility model. As there are two sources of risk and one asset only, this is an incomplete market. One can complete the market by considering a derivative V1 used to hedge the ...
4
votes
1answer
703 views

Science behind options pricing into Earnings event

I am wondering about studies regarding the uncanny options pricing into public company's earnings reports. The phenomenon being that the price of a straddle before earnings costs near exactly the ...
4
votes
2answers
597 views

SKEW and VIX relations?

My question is about the CBOE published index VIX and SKEW. To start with, I consider working on the variance dynamics. I calibrate the market data (such as VIX and VIX futures) into the Heston ...
10
votes
2answers
449 views

Exploiting breakdowns in correlation of estimated volatility

In the attached image I have a plot of the rolling correlation of 90-day historic volatility (using the Garman Klass estimator based on Sinclair's Volatility Trading) of JPM v. the S&P. As can be ...
1
vote
1answer
410 views

Calculate historical (ATM) option prices with public data

I just saw the question How to calculate the most realistic historical option prices with additional publicly available parameters and I am interested in the step before that. How can I calculate ...
12
votes
2answers
2k views

statistical arbitrage option overlay strategies / volatility trading

Here's an interesting trading puzzle that I would love to get the community's input on. Let's say there exists an alpha signal that does a good job of sorting equities expected excess returns over ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

GJR-GARCH Model In R

Any idea how to estimate GJR-GARCH models in R? Is there any particular library like fGarch that supports such models?
4
votes
1answer
278 views

Reference on Electronic volatility trading [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book. I recently came in contact with a quant desk that traded volatility. The discussion only highlited my ...
4
votes
1answer
808 views

Can American options with no dividends and zero risk-free rate be treated as European?

Let's say you've got American options on a future of a stock index. There are no dividends, and no risk-free rate either (assume $r=0$). Can these options then be treated as European from the ...
8
votes
2answers
977 views

Analytical relationship between a covariance matrix and cross-sectional dispersion

Given an expected returns vector and a covariance matrix, one can perform a joint draw and measure the average cross-sectional variation as the standard deviation across returns for a particular joint ...
1
vote
0answers
624 views

Using volatility cycles to switch between trend following & range bound trading? [closed]

"...a low volatility environment is usually a good environment for trend following strategies; see Jez Liberty’s state of trend following report here..." ...
3
votes
0answers
360 views

Real time stock volatility

Is there any need for real time weighted volatility on a tick by tick basis for equities? If you had that access to that, what could you do with it?
6
votes
3answers
248 views

How to measure investors' “experienced” volatility?

In asset allocation, you usually send reports to your clients where you will report the volatility of its portfolio. Assuming you only have monthly returns, you will compute volatility over a ...
3
votes
3answers
210 views

Why in general is the variance of volume changes higher than variance of price changes?

Why, in general, is the variance of volume changes higher than variance of price changes? I understand that these two quantities are functions of some very different factors, but I don't understand ...
6
votes
4answers
731 views

How to hedge against lack of volatility

Say you have a trading system that works best when markets are most volatile. What would be the best way to hedge against lack of volatility ? For example, 2008, 2009 was highly volatile and it has ...
11
votes
7answers
2k views

Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book.

Recently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer. After I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Constructing an approximation of the S&P 500 volatility smile with publicly available data

Besides of the VIX there is another vol datum publicly available for the S&P 500: the SKEW. Do you know a procedure with which one can extrapolate other implied vols of the S&P 500 smile with ...
3
votes
1answer
268 views

How to use volatility to assess the accuracy of a stock market model?

Background: For a dissertation I have a multi-agent stock market model that I am using to assess different mechanisms for producing particular dynamic regimes. A key point is assessing how closely it ...
5
votes
1answer
490 views

Why are there so many different ways of calculating historical volatility

There appears to be several ways of calculating volatility: Price volatility (of which there are several variants): close to close high low range average of open, high, low and close Log returns ...
6
votes
1answer
139 views

Should we apply practical constraints on the distribution of monte carlo paths?

to limit interest rate paths to a 'reasonable' range (if we could define reasonable). Now we calibrate log-normal skew and mean reversion monthly to robust basket of atm swaptions and in and out ...
9
votes
1answer
646 views

One dimensional analog of cleansing a correlation matrix via random matrix theory

The general idea of cleansing a correlation matrix via random matrix theory is to compare its eigenvalues to that of a random one to see which parts of it are beyond normal randomness. These are then ...
6
votes
1answer
488 views

How sensitive are vertical spreads to changes in implied volatility?

How sensitive are vertical spreads to changes in volatility / implied volatility in the money, at the money, and out of the money? I'm thinking for 1 point spreads this would be very small / neutral ...
3
votes
0answers
128 views

What is the relation between return volatility and return rank volatility, and how can I control the latter?

I have no experience in finance, but I've been playing around with a virtual portfolio. I'm trying to control the "rank volatility" distribution - that is, the volatility of a stock's daily rank in ...
9
votes
1answer
494 views

How do you estimate the volatility of a sample when points are irregularly spaced?

I was looking again at this question which basically haunts every quant I believe, and I was thinking about the effect of these gaps when computing volatility of the series. Let's define the problem ...
11
votes
1answer
3k views

How do I compare implied and historic volatility?

what would you suggest are the starting points for comparing, in an easy, visual way, implied and delivered volatility surfaces? I'd like to see what the differences are between the historic surfaces, ...
17
votes
7answers
6k views

Why is volatility mean-reverting?

We all know it does mean revert. The question is why. What's making volatility mean-revert? Is it some sort of cyclical behaviour of option traders? The way it's calculated? Why?
12
votes
3answers
688 views

How to price a volatility-index option?

There exist several volatility indices, such as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). There are also options on such indicies. What is the best way to price a volatility-index option? Is there a simple ...
12
votes
2answers
882 views

How to forecast expected volatility from high-frequency equity panel data?

I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other ...
9
votes
1answer
602 views

Can VIX be interpreted as a proxy for instantaneous volatility?

BJO06 (Table 2) estimate the following Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model for market variance, $\sigma^2_t$: $\mathrm{d}\sigma^2_t = (\alpha_0 + \alpha_1\sigma^2_t)\mathrm{d}t + ...