A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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32 views

Interpreting and scaling of Realized Variance with sample data

I have some question about realized variance(RV) and I have some sample prices below to work with. You can run the R code below to build a vector of log returns. Three are 78 5-minute buckets in a ...
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41 views

Estimate volatility in forecast

I have a model with a rolling forecast. In each time step $t$, I predict the price for the next periods, e.g. $\hat{p}(t, t+1)$ and $\hat{p}(t, t+2)$. If I start in $t=0$ and arrive at $t=2$, I ...
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80 views

Monte Carlo, convexity and Risk-Neutral ZCB Pricing

I've built a simplistic Excel monte carlo model to price a zero-coupon bond, but it came up with a slightly unepxected result so I wanted to confirm whether my maths is just a little rusty or my model ...
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26 views

Return volatility or Price Volatility [duplicate]

Which is a better method to calculate volatility - Price variance or return variace or is it subjective to the use of volatility figure?
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142 views

Calculate the realised volatility from a time series

Does anybody know how to calculate the realised volatility from a series for a certain time frame? For example, I am looking at 5 days, 21 days, 63 days, 126 days and 253 days. thanks
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40 views

Realized Volatility: errors correlation

When using Realized Volatility (sum of squared intraday returns) to estimate volatility, following the model: $$r_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t $$ where $\sigma^2_t$ is the volatility at time $t$ and ...
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81 views

High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
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70 views

Volume or Volatility?

I've recently been given a project which came with some documentation. In this documentation is a bullet point that reads: Liquidity Risk in Equity, Credit and Vol I'm unsure as to whether vol is ...
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62 views

Cointegration and variance of time series

Given that $X_t , Y_t$ are two cointegrated random processes, what can we say about the relationship between variance of the two increments $var(X_{t+h}-X_t)$ , $var(Y_{t+h}-Y_t)$ for a given ...
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59 views

variance ratio for pair-trading

I am using the variance ratio test to check whether my sequence is mean reverting in that test there is a parameter n, How in general I choose this n? or what is the meaning of this parameter? ...
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44 views

SRRI calculation for absolute return funds

I am trying to understand the formula for calculating SRRI for absolute return funds described in ESMA's guideline CESR/10-673, and Richard's answer has been of great help (What does this formula (to ...
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36 views

Correction factors for volatilities of smoothed returns

In An Introduction to High Frequency Finance (http://www.amazon.ca/Introduction-High-Frequency-Finance-Ramazan-Gen%C3%A7ay/dp/0122796713), the authors (on page 253) build a tick-frequency volatility ...
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81 views

How to calculate probability of option expiring in the money?

Given the following values ...
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2answers
53 views

Comparing Portfolio Volatility with Index Volatility seems a wrong method?

thanks for looking into this question. I am comparing an investment strategy against the S&P 500 for a financial article I'm writing. I compute volatility of the Portfolio in this way, as the ...
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90 views

I have volatility of a portfolio in year 1 and in year 2. How do I calculate the volatility over the total 2-year period?

thanks for looking into this question. See the picture below (better is right-mousebutton - open in new tab). I also have the price and return data of the Stocks if that's needed to calculate the ...
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59 views

How do I track implied volatility of specific delta?

I'm a newbie with respects to volatility trading and options. I recently purchased a book on the topic called "Trading Implied Volatility -An introduction" by Simon Gleadall. It's been one of the most ...
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36 views

volatility grouping

I was working on risk levels of a combined portolfio (includes options,futures as well as stock). While using greeks we can asses some value of a portolio, but when one needs to assess some kind of ...
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81 views

Vanna-Volga method to infer vol surface with just few realtime tick data

My broker gives me the opportunity to get realtime tick data for up to 50 fields. Since I would like to monitor option chains, this amount of data is very limited. Suppose I am interested in ...
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21 views

Residual maturity vol

The following question is probably (from a practical point of view) more relevant for EM markets which typically exhibit a more pronounced forward volatility compared to spot volatility. Say I buy a ...
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32 views

How to compare the volatility of quarterly p&l of two firms in the same sector?

I want to compare the volatility of the historical quarterly profit and loss data of two or more firms operating in the same sector and determine whether the volatility of p&l of these firms is ...
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79 views

Fixed volatility portfolio with max returns creates skewed results

I am trying to create a portfolio of only four components using the mean-variance optimization (MVO). I am setting up my problem such that I want to maximize the expected returns with a fixed vol ...
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1answer
34 views

Common point between IR and Vol option pricing models?

What is the common point between pricing models on options on Interest Rates and options on Volatility?
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292 views

Controling ex-post volatility by ex-ante limits

In the context of mutual funds the KID directive forces us to calculate 5 year ex-post volatility of a (market) fund (weekly returns). Thus each week we look back in the past and calculate volatility ...
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92 views

Stochastic Volatility for Stocks, FTSE

Can someone help me with calculating Stochastic Volatility (of stocks and options) using SAS or R or Matlab please? I am new to SAS and I am trying to use Heston model, White-Hull model or any other ...
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156 views

How to calculate modeled asset volatility by industry factor?

Currently I am working with huge data frame which consists of a lot firms. For each firm in my sample I calculated asset volatility ( I am using Merton default probability model, so I have used 2 ...
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27 views

explanation for preference of volatilities in option premium quotes [duplicate]

could any one suggest an explanation for why premium in option markets (currency or otherwise) are quoted as volatilities rather than (premium/abs(spot price - settlement price)) or some other ...
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Approximating the IV of an underlying from Individual Options IV

Is it possible to get a calculation of IV from the volatility on components of the options chain? EG I have this data: ...
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1answer
67 views

Constant decreasing volatility, GARCH forecasting

I am trying to forecast the volatility using GARCH modelling in R. I fit an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, but my sigma predictions are constantly decreasing. Anybody know why? ...