Questions tagged [volatility]
A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.
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GARCH model using high frequency price return
I would like to forecast variance at time length $k\delta$ based on a price (return) time series of time step length $\delta$. I will apply a GARCH(1,1) model to subsamples at time intervals length $k\...
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transforming variables
I am would like to create a regression model with different variables however before using these variables in my regression model I would like to transform the variable in order to make it more ...
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How to get exposure to realised volatility while being vega neutral?
Let's say I am predicting the realised volatility of a stock index. I am buying or selling straddles based on whether the predicted vol is higher or lower than the implied ATM volatility for the ...
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garch(1,1) Annualised Volitility with python
I am trying to calculate the annualized Volatility of given returns for a stock with Garch(1,1) on python using a code I found online. The value I should be getting is around 27, but the value I am ...
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Why a model like GARCH is only good for daily volatility and not for intraday volatilities?
I´m currently looking to implement an intraday volatility model and I´m new at the quant world and I learned how superior is GARCH family is for daily volatilities, but in the research stage I found ...
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Trading butterfly a long vol or short vol [closed]
Sorry for what could be a naive question.
When is the right time to trade a butterfly i.e. (buy 10d call and put vs sell atm all notional flat) is it when implied vols are high or low (relative to ...
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Hedging predicted volatility
Q. If you predict the volatility of the stock is 10% a year from now and current price is X dollar, how do you hedge the risk?
Im not sure why I am finding this so hard. How do we use options (...
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Black Scholes implied volatility [closed]
I am reading up on implied volatility and I encountered the term Black-Scholes implied volatility which I haven't heard before. What is the meaning of this term?
Say I am looking at the Heston model ...
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Valuation of Variance Swap
Let say I have a Variance Swap contract which is based on daily closing prices (not the continuous variance calculation) and will last between the day interval $T_1$...
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Why are FX options vols quoted in 25RR and 25BF terms instead of by strike like credit options?
Credit options follow a quoting convention for the vols based on strike, which fits in neatly with the Black-Scholes framework.
So why are FX options vols quoted in terms of 25-delta Risk Reversals ...
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forecasting hourly variance with higher resolution data available
Assume one has price data $P_{1}, P_{2}, \dots, P_{n}$ with one hour resolution and aims to forecast the variance for one hour ahead return. The first approach to try is ARCH or GARCH models. There ...
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Calculating implied volatility index
What are common methods to compute implied volatility index?
One could use VIX method on other underlying.
It is also easy to limit the method to 4 atm strikes. Is this a good idea though?
What are ...
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Volatility forecast on SPX option expiration day
I am looking for methods and papers on forecasting SPX option at-the-money implied volatility or realized volatility within its expiration day. What are some stylized facts and forecasting methods?
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Optimal bandwidth for Realized Kernel
If I want to estimate Realized Kernel for 1 min bins, is there a way to compute the optimal bandwidth?
In the reference paper: Realised Kernels in Practice: Trades and Quotes (Ole Barndoff-Nielsen et ...
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Interpretation of Volatility of Volatility (VVIX)
Recently I came across the VVIX index (also known as VIX of VIX), which represents the 30 day implied (expected) Volatility of the VIX Index. I studied CBOE's Whitepaper for the VIX, which explains ...
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Black Volatility using SABR model
As per the Wikipedia, the SABR model looks like below -
$dF_t = \sigma_t \left(F_t\right)^{\beta} dW_t$
$d \sigma_t = \alpha \sigma_t d Z_t$
I have 3 questions -
...
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What are the components of VXN?
What are the exact components of VXN -- the volatility index for NASDAQ-100?
The CBOE page links to the document for VIX, which clarifies the exact set of front-month near-the-money SPX options used ...
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Modelling VWAP Slippage with HFT data
I heard that VWAP slippage (relative difference between the VWAP and the initial mid-price, $\varepsilon \ . \ \frac{P_{VWAP}-P_{arrival}}{P_{arrival}}$ with $\varepsilon = +1 \ or \ -1 $ the trade ...
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Easiest possible way to backtest a semi dynamic options strategy
I have a few options strategies Id like to backtest and I have some familiarity with Python. In particular Id like to backtest a "semi-dynamic" long vol. strategy putting on $0$ cost ...
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Why is asset volatility easier to estimate than the asset mean if it contains the mean?
It is well known that the variance of asset returns, $\sigma^2$ (whose square root is volatility), is easier to estimate than the asset mean $\mu$ (also known as expected return) because the mean of ...
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Use of ugarchroll vs ugarchforecast: setting parameters
I would like to generate 21 day ahead forecast volatility with ugarchroll.
I know it is similar to ugarchforecast with the exception that ugarchroll is a rolling average which considers initially the ...
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LIBOR market model with stochastic volatility
I have read that there are 3 types of pricing models: local volatility, stochastic volatility and stochastic-local volatility models (LSV).
I am now looking at interest rates exotics pricing models ...
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Do the weights of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) have to sum to 1?
I am currently trying to calculate a volatility by using the EWMA model because it is said to yield better results than just using an equal weighted calculation approach. However I am a bit confused ...
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Is variance of residuals of Markov switching GARCH model regime specific?
I'm using MSGARCH package in R. By return_data/Volatility(fit.model), I get the residuals. When I calculate the standard deviation of the residuals, it turns out that it's close to 1 for all residuals....
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Greeks and splits
Should we adjust greeks on stock splits? Let's just ask about splits instead of reverse splits. I'm also interested how answers change if we change models/assumptions.
I have some contradicting ...
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Calculate annualized returns and annualized volatility from monthly returns?
I have a dataset with monthly returns (In decimals)
Jan-2008, Feb-2008 .... Dec-2008, Jan-2009 .... Dec-2017
This is what I have done,
...
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How to implement an “Active Long Volatility” Strategy?
The research paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent" describes an asset allocation referred to as the "Dragon" Portfolio, which allocates 18% to "active long volatility&...
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Volatility estimation based on a 60 days range
In Hutchinson et al: A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities Via Learning Network (1994) paper (link), to estimate $\sigma$ for the Black-Scholes formula, it says (p. 881)...
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What is volatility trading? [closed]
I have heard that there are ways that one can trade volatility with options. What option strategies can be used to do so?
Are the other ways to trade volatility besides with options? If so, what ...
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Premium Currency and Volatility
Does the volatility of a Currency Pair depend on the currency in which the premium is paid? For example- will the Volatility of USDJPY change if the premium is paid in USD instead of JPY. Is there any ...
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What's the difference between ATM Vol vs ATMF Vol?
May I ask what's the difference between At-the-money volatility vs At-the-money foward Vol?
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Implied Volatility from Heston Model
When one construct surface for Implied volatilities using Heston model from different Strike prices and Maturities, we get a surface where long dated volatilities ...
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Volatility differences
To discover trading prices of high volatility, I measure the standard deviation of two currency pairs using a simple example:
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how to model the volatility of the currency exchange rate
I want to estimate/predict the volatility of the currency exchange rate.
I have checked in literature a few models from very simple PPP to econometric factor model forecasting, to GARCH (for ...
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Modelling Geometric Browian Motion price model with stochastic volatility
I'd like to generate scenarios (simulate several paths of the process) for several stocks using multinomial Geometric Brownian Motion under Stochastic volatility assumption. I'm going to use it in my ...
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Volatility of multimodal distribution of returns
Take $x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_T$ to be the price of a stock, indexed by $t=1, 2, \ldots, T$. Define rate of return at time $t>W$ for a window size of $W$ to be
$$r_t = \frac{x_t - x_{t-W}}{x_{t-W}}$$
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VIX vs S&P: Drift in the hedging residual?
I am looking at the daily returns of the VIX index (dVIX ) and the daily returns of the S&P 500 (dS).
I am running a linear regression (using 0 intercept) and get a regression slope of -1.4, i.e.
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Vasicek model - Bond price and volatility
Why does the bond price under the Vasicek model increase as the rate volatility increases? What is the intuition behind this?
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Modelling volatility for higher frequency data
I'm doing some academic work on volatility forecasting. I've got 1-minute bar data. It is not clear to me what model is best suited for forecasting volatility when higher frequency data is available.
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Non-Linear Time-Dependent Volatility
My data consist of monthly electricity futures contracts. Unlike other commodities, electricity is delivered throughout a month (rather than on a specific date), which means that, as the active month ...
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Garch models - are they useful for hedging? If so how?
I understand that Garch models are useful to predict volatility. But are they useful for hedging in practice? If I want to hedge volatility, why shouldn't I just use a Variance Swap?
In other words, ...
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Estimate of basket volatility
We are looking for a simple way to calculate an approximation of the basket volatility for a set of baskets so that we can estimate which basket might produce the highest coupon in a standard ...
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Are there noticeable jumps in index options price due to systematic hedging of structured products close to big expiry dates?
I am looking at investigating factors that will cause jumps in index options prices close to big expiries in the name. I imagine systematic rebalancing of structured products will have a large impact ...
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The relationship between volatility of underlying asset, leverage and the volatility of the derivative
If I want to lower the risk of the portfolio then the trivial thing to do is change from higher volatility to lower for a better Sharpe ratio. It already lists the volatility for the stocks but the ...
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Dispersion Trading with a 2 component index
I have a dispersion question I need help with...An index SPY has only 2 components - AAPL and AMZN. We are given the implied volatility of SPY and AAPL as well as the correlation between the 2 assets.
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Historical volatility - Black Scholes
How do you best incorporate the weekends in the calculation of the Black Scholes historical volatility? (Of course historical volatility serves as approximation, if the market price of the options is ...
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Why my delta position is increasing with increase in spot?
I am trying to take position in future as per the delta position of short put. My strike is 13794 for short put option, spot 10305.3 and volatility is 20.153 then I am getting 5890 position to buy and ...
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Implied volatility of hypothetical options market
I am attempting to create a volatility surface for a US electricity market that has a liquid futures market but nearly non-existent options market (<5 trades per month across all strikes and ...
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Value Option with Forward Volatilities
That is probably a rather simple question but I got confused and would be very thankful for help.
Imagine we are in 2015 and have an option that expires in either 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021.
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Historical VIX term structure data
I see that there is a CBOE page for collecting individual moments of term structure data, however, I'm wondering if anyone knows how to access historical data in bulk. Here's the CBOE page:
http://...