A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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562 views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
-1
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0answers
26 views

How much less likely is a stop loss to be touched/hit after increasing expected return?

Firstly, let's say we have a stock ABC currently trading at $100.00 that has: (A) an expected return of 0% per year and (B) standard deviation of 20% per year Given these stats, the stock has a 50% ...
8
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1answer
301 views

What good papers of short term (<30 seconds) volatility estimation [duplicate]

I am looking for good papers of short term (<30 sec) volatility estimation AND short term volatility forecasting. Do you have something in mind ?
7
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5answers
260 views

Can classical economics explain *any* of the so-called stylized facts of finance?

I am doing some reading on the (historical) emergence of the Black-Scholes implied volatility smile for index options (yes - post 87), and I stumbled across an economic paper attempting to explain the ...
2
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2answers
109 views

Is there a way to adjust R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with EWMA or GARCH method?

Is there a way to upgrade R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with more risk sensitive approaches like EWMA or GARCH? Or is there another R package which can handle the issue?
1
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1answer
57 views

Arrow-Debreu Price in “The Volatility Smile and its implied Tree”

I was reading the old, but still interesting paper "The volatility smile and its implied tree" by Derman and Kani. I have a two questions about the derivation of the $2n+1$ equations, both of them ...
3
votes
1answer
202 views

How to Calculate Confidence Intervals for Moving Averages Given Nonindependence?

I've plotted 30-year moving averages across time for a couple of portfolios, and I was wondering how to calculate a 95% CI for the these moving average data (i.e., across all moving average data ...
1
vote
1answer
726 views

Historical volatility from close prices (Haug pg 166)

I have implemented a function for calculating historical volatility using close the close method as described by Haug on page 166. When I implemented the formula given by Haug, it resulted in some ...
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2answers
256 views

How to calculate the volatility matrix with multiple stocks

calculating the volatility for a single stock is straightforward. However, I'm not sure whether my approach for calculating the volatility matrix for multiple stocks is correct: I assume a log-normal ...
3
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2answers
458 views

Volatility of a rolling window strategy

What methods can be applied to determine the volatility of strategy using a rolling window? Using normal standard deviation would bias the results as the returns will be highly correlated. Although, ...
1
vote
1answer
124 views

HAR-RV, realized GARCH and HEAVY model for realized volatility

I don't have much experience with volatility modeling using intraday data but I'm in the process of collecting 5mins data. Currently I have ~6 months of data. Is it enough to use these models with ...
6
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2answers
123 views

Does it make sense to use upward and downward volatility in option pricing?

Historically stocks have a higher likelihood to increase in price than to fall in price. As such would it make sense to split a stocks volatility measurement into upward and downward components? For ...
0
votes
2answers
90 views

Is the volatility for these two SDEs the same

$$ (1) \ \ d\left(\frac{1}{S_t}\right) =\frac{1}{S_t}\left(\sigma^2-r\right)dt +\frac{1}{S_t}\sigma dW_t $$ and $$ (2) \ \ dS_t = S_t rdt + \sigma S_t dW_t $$ How can you prove that?
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2answers
81 views

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model, Historical vol or Implied vol or Future Vol or Actual vol.
2
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3answers
161 views

Relationship between Beta and Standard Deviation

I was doing some financial analysis on two firms in the coffee industry. After calculating Beta and Standard Deviation for both firms, I seem to have stumbled on some weird phenomenon. It appears ...
0
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1answer
76 views

What math concepts are used in designing volatility models

What topics in statistics and mathematics do I need to understand thoroughly before I can start to dabble with stochastic volatility models and volatility arbitrage?
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0answers
33 views

volatility grouping

I was working on risk levels of a combined portolfio (includes options,futures as well as stock). While using greeks we can asses some value of a portolio, but when one needs to assess some kind of ...
6
votes
5answers
3k views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of these approaches to deal with volatility surface?

I would like to know if someone could provide a summarized view of the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches on the volatility surface issues, such as: Local vol Stochastic Vol ...
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1answer
48 views
3
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2answers
107 views

Is there a better way to price options than with historical volatility?

I know that annualized historical volatility calculated with closing prices is a much rougher estimate than implied volatility for the correct "volatility" parameter in options pricing models. ...
1
vote
1answer
32 views

Risk-free arbitrage given a volume oracle?

Given a magical oracle who can correctly predict the volume, but not the price, of a given security, does there exist a risk-free arbitrage to capitalize on this information?
0
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1answer
29 views

Normal vol - convention

apologies for the simplicity of the question, but I was wondering: what is the quoting convention for normal (bps) volatility? Say I have the following time series of data: Date Close Abs Change ...
0
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0answers
35 views

Vanna-Volga method to infer vol surface with just few realtime tick data

My broker gives me the opportunity to get realtime tick data for up to 50 fields. Since I would like to monitor option chains, this amount of data is very limited. Suppose I am interested in ...
0
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0answers
17 views

Residual maturity vol

The following question is probably (from a practical point of view) more relevant for EM markets which typically exhibit a more pronounced forward volatility compared to spot volatility. Say I buy a ...
0
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3answers
107 views

What makes investors risk averse?

There are some regularly-occuring events that coincide with a rise in the implied volatility of an asset. For example, in advance of an firm's annual earnings report, it is typically expensive to buy ...
4
votes
4answers
581 views

How to avoid having negative volatility when applying Heston model?

When applying the Heston model to generate the sample volatility surface, some of the volatility value will be negative. I am just wondering what do practioners normally do with these negative value. ...
0
votes
1answer
77 views

Where can I find a list of market-moving news announcements for different asset classes?

Different asset classes have different important news announcements that move the markets intraday. For instance, oil volatility increases after the EIA Petroleum Status Report, but that announcement ...
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3answers
467 views

Trading spot volatility

I am reading a paper that very briefly talks about some volatility arbitrage strategies. It's so brief that I do not exactly understand how it works. It says one of the strategy is based on "short ...
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0answers
25 views

How to compare the volatility of quarterly p&l of two firms in the same sector?

I want to compare the volatility of the historical quarterly profit and loss data of two or more firms operating in the same sector and determine whether the volatility of p&l of these firms is ...
3
votes
2answers
130 views

Approximation of different volatilities

Suppose I model the forward swap rate lognormal $$dS_t = \sigma_{ln}S_tdW_t$$ On the other hand we could model it simply by a normal assumption: $$dS_t = \sigma_{n}dW_t$$ I would like to know if ...
1
vote
1answer
264 views

How does Volatility Pairs Trading work?

I've read some material related to pairs trading for equities and I understand the process of finding non-stationary pairs price series that can be cointegrated to form a stationary series. The basic ...
3
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2answers
129 views

Cross-sectional volatility vs temporal volatility

Volatility is usually defined as the standard deviation of returns, but sometimes it is calculated as the standard deviation of cross-sectional return divided by the square root of time, where other ...
8
votes
3answers
1k views

Gamma vs. Volatility Risk

Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk? It leads me to ask: - What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it? Thinking about ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

Constructing Volatility Smile from Implied Volatility & Delta

I have implied volatility data for call and put options (expiring in 1 month from any given date) for a particular stock. In addition, I have the delta for the options. However, I have no information ...
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0answers
52 views

Fixed volatility portfolio with max returns creates skewed results

I am trying to create a portfolio of only four components using the mean-variance optimization (MVO). I am setting up my problem such that I want to maximize the expected returns with a fixed vol ...
2
votes
2answers
244 views

How to classify stocks by their volatility?

I would like to hear other possible ways of classifying Stocks by the Volatility of their returns. Assuming that I want to characterize each stock as Low, Medium or High Volatility Stock and assuming ...
4
votes
1answer
98 views

Nested volatility

The introduction VIX options makes the concept of "volatility of volatility" a real life concept. The idea of "nested volatility" seems interesting, and I am wondering if there are any academic ...
2
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1answer
146 views

Volatility of Futures

Apparently: Under a constant interest rate, the futures price is given by a deterministic time function times the asset price (I think I understand this). This means that the volatility of the ...
0
votes
1answer
145 views

Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
2
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0answers
38 views

Testing for the presence of a positive or negative gamma effect

I am currently analyzing a statistic that I believe will have the effect of hedgers having a positive or negative gamma position in certain stocks. In the case where I believe hedgers have positive ...
7
votes
2answers
273 views

Why does the price of a derivative not depend on the derivative with which you hedge volatility risk?

I'm trying to derive the valuation equation under a general stochastic volatility model. What one can read in the literature is the following reasoning: One considers a replicating self-financing ...
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0answers
110 views

Models for volatility estimation of high frequency data?

I have read on several news articles and research papers, "Contrary to popular belief, high frequency trading reduces volatility in stock markets rather than exacerbates it". Do you know the models ...
0
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0answers
57 views

Negative Risky vs Negative Butterfly

I understand that in regard to FX options, a volatility smile with negative Risk Reversals is effectively indicating that the spot market for a given currency pair is in decline (puts over). In ...
17
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7answers
20k views

What's the difference between volatility and variance?

How do they differ in what they imply about an underlying's (or any variable's) movement?
10
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2answers
382 views

How to estimate the following model?

Suppose I have the following model: $$r_t=\sigma_t * \epsilon_t$$ where $r_t$ is the return at time t, $\sigma_t$ is the volatility, the model used to model this volatility is an exponentially ...
2
votes
2answers
131 views

Understanding the conditioning in a GARCH process

In a GARCH model like the following $$y_t=\sigma_tz_t,\\ \sigma_t^2=\omega(1-\alpha-\beta)+\alpha y_{t-1}^2+\beta \sigma_{t-1}^2$$ where $z_t$ is assumed to be iidN(0,1), we say that conditional on ...
2
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2answers
160 views

2 stocks, no shorting vs shorting. (concrete questions, mean-variance)

I'd appreciate help with the following questions. Suppose there are two stocks $A$ and $B$ with expected returns $E_A, E_B >0$ and volatilities $v_A, v_B >0$, respectively . Also, suppose ...
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0answers
68 views

robust regions in grid search

I have a strategy f that takes parameters x,y (for x,y taking values in integer ranges). I get two grids (of returns and volatility values) from computing f(xi,yi) for integer ranges x1 <= xi <= ...
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0answers
58 views

commodity futures pricing vs. underlying spot rates in volatile markets, at depth of book

Are futures contracts or their underlying spot rates, more or less efficient, at depth of market, with volatility? Say for example we have: 1 E7 (CME contract) = 62,500 euro Should the future or ...
16
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3answers
2k views

How to forecast volatility using high-frequency data?

There is a large literature covering volatility forecasts with high-frequency tick data. Much of this has surrounded the concept of "realized volatility", such as: "Realized Volatility and ...