0
votes
0answers
2 views

multi factor equity model exposures not as expected

I'm researching an equity multi factor model. It contains three factors, say A, B & C. The factors are weighted as such, ...
1
vote
0answers
6 views

Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

hedging with a 3 month fx forward every month

I think this is a bit odd question. Let us say I want to hedge my fx exposure every month but using 3 month forwards . How can I do that ? Is it not easy just to use 1 month forwards ? I recalculate ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
2
votes
0answers
22 views

An optimization problem on Markov Chain

Consider a Markov Chain $\{X_n\}$ whose transition probability depends on some parameter $\theta$ ($p_{ij}(\theta)$). Now I want to optimize the following quantity $$\lambda(\theta) = ...
1
vote
0answers
12 views

Valuation of barrier options in Jump diffusion model

I am trying to evaluate the value of a Barrier option using Monte carlo method. The stock follows a jump diffusion model. I am using the method described in Metwally and Atiya. The authors describe ...
1
vote
1answer
30 views

ADR vs Foriegn Stock Price Arbitraguers

So I am sure you all know about the whole Argentina default that has been in the papers lately, no need to delve into it. This so called "technical" default has lead some interesting investment ...
1
vote
1answer
25 views

How can theta be so large on this option?

The AAPL Sep 95 put currently has a theta of -.21. The put midpoint is .84. 84/21 = 4 days. However, the put has nearly a month before expiration, at which time it will be zero. Not 4 days from ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

multiperiod optimization using R

I'm interested in multistage optimization problems. Are there any good R packages around to solve such problems over time? I'm not at all an expert in it, so maybe someone knows a good paper / lecture ...
-2
votes
0answers
10 views

Stock Price Evolution Equation Clarifications [on hold]

What is the dimension of Δt? Is it second [s]? What are the expected return and the expected volatility? How can I calculate them for any given stock? Should I use the return and volatility values for ...
2
votes
0answers
21 views

what kind of test for volatility and where find the data

I am working on a model for stochastic volatility. In short, the model try to capture that the volatility goes up suddenly after a shock (war, policy, financial events, etc) and then goes down slowly, ...
1
vote
1answer
45 views

Explain drop in Correlation between two time series in consecutive periods

I have a time series for a security list with 2 parameters calculated for each time period. For example, for a stock XYZ, I have Param1 and Param2 calculated over various time periods stacked against ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

CVA formula proof

I'm struggling to prove the CVA formula in this paper. Equation (3) is the result of computing the expectation of formula (1). Could you please show me how to prove that?
2
votes
1answer
78 views

Volatility of Futures

Apparently: Under a constant interest rate, the futures price is given by a deterministic time function times the asset price (I think I understand this). This means that the volatility of the ...
1
vote
0answers
30 views

M&A hedging an equity portfolio against an index

Quick Note This question was already posted under the userID user8170. Reason being I could not access my account. Now I am able to login to my account I am reposting the question here and will ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

one-step-ahead Stochastic Volatility for 5-minute VWAP prices

I'm trying to run an SV model against prices of Euro/USD. For those not familiar with SV, its a volatility model in which each point gets its own volatility parameter $h_t$ with 3 main parameters that ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Time series analysis of PnL with an increasing variance and large negative values [on hold]

PnL can take large negative values, and its variance increases over time as the firm grows. If we do differencing, an increasing variance remains. If we take log, negative values cannot be defined. ...
-1
votes
0answers
20 views

A question about how to design Option

There is a question about the construction of an option Manufacture and option from plain vanillas that makes money in case of low volatility and does not lose too much in the opposite scenario. ...
2
votes
0answers
30 views

Testing for the presence of a positive or negative gamma effect

I am currently analyzing a statistic that I believe will have the effect of hedgers having a positive or negative gamma position in certain stocks. In the case where I believe hedgers have positive ...
1
vote
2answers
26 views

Impact of NZD mid-day EST Roll forward

Was taking a look at an NZD spot deal that was traded on a Friday for value the following Tuesday (t+2). Somehow this trade became classified as a forward by our back office systems (dealer says they ...
1
vote
0answers
15 views

Incoherence in Bloomberg Data in Swap Curve Builder (ICSV)

When working on calibration for LMM model, we need to have Initial Libor quotes and Swaptions Black vol quotes on the market data. We have data provided by Bloomberg. However, before performing the ...
3
votes
0answers
27 views

For an affine process, how do we know the second order term is positive definite?

A regular affine process is defined to have the generator $Af(x) = \sum_{k,l=1}^d(a_{kl}+\langle a_{I,kl},y\rangle)\frac{\partial^2f(x)}{\partial x_k\partial x_l}+\langle b+\beta x,\nabla f(x)\rangle ...
3
votes
1answer
63 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
4
votes
1answer
47 views

Discounted risky asset stochastic process problem

$S_t$ is the random variable representing the risky asset price at time $t$. M_t is the riskless asset. They are governed by the equations $\frac{dS_t}{dt}=\mu dt + \sigma dZ_t$ and $dM_t = rM_t ...
3
votes
0answers
63 views

Mid-Point calculation with execution probability

Referring Cao, Hansch, and Wang (2004) "The Informational Content of an Open Limit Order Book" $$ \mbox{WP}^{n_1 - n_2} = \frac{\sum_{j=n_1}^{n_2} (Q_j^d P_j^d + Q_j^s P_j^s)}{(Q_j^d + Q_j^s)} $$ ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

Asset true price determination, quoted on 2 exchanges

There is a stock that is quoted on 2 exchanges and I'm thinking about ideal (from market micro structure point) method for calculate true value of that asset. Assuming that venue with volume traded ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Particular Conditional Expectation of Geometric Brownian Motion

If we have the density function $$f_{Y}(y,t)=\frac{1}{y \sqrt {2\pi\sigma^2t}}exp(-\frac{(ln \ y - \mu t)^2}{2\sigma^2t})$$ Then the mean of $Y(t)=e^{X(t)}$ conditional on $Y(0)=y_0$ is found to be ...
1
vote
1answer
25 views

Calculating short/long order percentages?

I have a feed in real time that lists the ask and bid orders. Each order consists of a value and a quantity. I want to calculate the percentage of short orders from the total orders in terms of ...
0
votes
0answers
90 views

How does Volatility Pairs Trading work?

I've read some material related to pairs trading for equities and I understand the process of finding non-stationary pairs price series that can be cointegrated to form a stationary series. The basic ...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Can Standardized unexpected earnings be considered a Z-score

According to this wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earnings_surprise, the SUE score is a "standardized" difference between reported earnings and expected earnings. Therefore, can the SUE score ...
0
votes
0answers
55 views

Risk-Free Rate determinant in CAPM

I have trouble understanding what type of maturity to use when calculating CAPM. My professor uses the 3-Month risk-free rate to ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

'C' Marker in PSA for CMO

I will occasionally get a 'C' as part of a PSA in my CMO oddlot data. Most of the numbers will be normal - 277, 297, 269. Then 10C, 20C, 13C. What does the C represent?
1
vote
0answers
50 views

How to Calculate Confidence Intervals for Moving Averages Given Nonindependence?

I've plotted 30-year moving averages across time for a couple of portfolios, and I was wondering how to calculate a 95% CI for the these moving average data (i.e., across all moving average data ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

How to value a portfolio of non-mature consumer loans?

I'm looking for the best way to value a portfolio of consumer loans that have NOT reached maturity and for which I do observe the payment/default history to date? I'm working with a large database of ...
1
vote
1answer
48 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
2
votes
1answer
85 views

How would you price this kind of derivative?

I am somewhat familiar with options but am wondering how to price calls/puts on this one: European exercise "Jumps" in underlying may occur Takes physical delivery upon exercise (is this even ...
1
vote
2answers
156 views

Black-Scholes Equation - Riskless portfolio derivation

The following is a summary of the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation as given on wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes_equation#Derivation) - I have a question regarding the ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

Cost of Carry Bear Flattener

I was reading a report last week that “the carry on a 2s5s gilt curve flattener is negative to the tune of 10bp over 6 months” and I realised I have little understanding of this concept and ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

How to fully replicate ADX + DI Indicators in Excel?

For black box testing, I was hoping that I could replicate the ADX + DI+ and DI- indicators that are provided in trading platforms such as ThinkOrSwim, ScottradeElite etc. However, I noticed that ...
0
votes
1answer
59 views

Integrating R with Bloomberg

In the past, I have used the package RBloomberg to directly pull bloomberg data into R. I've also seen it go by the names Rbbg or R[Name Redacted]. It seems to me, however, that this package no longer ...
0
votes
2answers
82 views

Is there a trustworthy ranking of quantitative finance degrees?

I'm interested to know if there is a trustworthy ranking of master's degree in quantitative finance. I'm specifically interested in some recruiter's perspective or experience, if available. I ask ...
3
votes
1answer
63 views

Why maximize expected growth rate?

It seems to me that the optimality of the Kelly Criterion relies on the assumption that it is in an investor's best interest to maximize his portfolio's expected growth rate. Why would he care what ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

Is Reuters Instrument Code (RIC) case-sensitive?

Someone in my organization claims that RIC codes are case-sensitive. So for example: SPXi201420000.U does not refer to the same instrument as ...
0
votes
0answers
54 views

hedging an equity portfolio against an index

I am trying to run a simple back test on a M&A strategy. The idea is to buy the target company for the length of the deal and obviously hope to see a profit. The weight given to each deal is ...
1
vote
0answers
17 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
5
votes
0answers
49 views

Estimate rolling stochastic volatility forecast using stochvol in R

I want to use the R package stochvol to fit a SV model to a DAX training set and use the output to estimate a rolling one-step-ahead forecast: ...
0
votes
0answers
32 views

Position Strength: Leveraged vs. Non-Levered

Is there some sort of metric or formula for bull/long strength in a market based on % of shorts/longs on margin, and perhaps even the size of that leverage? I ask because I participate in BTC (which ...
1
vote
0answers
15 views

Understanding Price Elasticities in Discrete Choice Models (Derivative)

I'am in the midst of a paper on mutual fund product differentiation by Li and Qiu. Here, the authors model the utility an investor derives from investing in a mutual fund using a Discrete Choice Model ...
0
votes
0answers
52 views

Significance of PhD Language [closed]

I am about to start a PhD at a prestigious (I mention that because I think it might be a relevant factor, not to dick-wave) university, and I like the idea of going into quantitative finance ...
1
vote
1answer
30 views

Proper way to combine wavelet coefficients from multiple rounds of analysis

I am doing signal analysis for a time series and the assumption of signal is S = F + e Where S is the original signal, F is the frequency component and e is white noise (auto-regressive time series ...

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