0
votes
1answer
145 views

how to quantify non-fundamental risk if variance is 100% discounted?

If there's better vocabulary, forgive me. If you were required to ignore variance as risk, how would you quantify non-fundamental risk? Many thanks in advance!
0
votes
2answers
382 views

What stock market indicators to model based on twitter feed? [closed]

We are developing an algorithm that models twitter users and groups of words that may indicate real world events. One application is modelling elections, i.e which party is likely going to win. ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Why doesn't a simulated delta hedging process go to zero?

I put together a simple simulation of delta hedging a set of options with an underlying and it seems that the fluctuations of the price still seem to affect the final outcome. The reason, I understand ...
2
votes
1answer
230 views

How to calculate two-time scale variance?

I am having trouble understanding how to calculate two-time scale variance as I do not have a strong mathematical background. Suppose I want to calculate the TSRV at 5 min intervals. Do I calculate ...
7
votes
1answer
6k views

Discrete returns versus log returns of assets

There have been similar posts here already but nevertheless I find the question worth posting: why do some people claim that log returns of assets are more suitable for statistics than discrete ...
4
votes
2answers
81 views

Imputed values in a multi-index

I have an equal-weighted index on a number of different Indices (from US, Europe and Asian markets). This compound index is constructed from a time series that has missing values (for example, those ...
7
votes
2answers
7k views

Daily returns using adjusted close

I want to chart the daily returns of a stock, and I'm using Yahoo finance data to download historic data. I was told to use Adjusted Close, but there seems to be an issue with this. For ANTO.L, you ...
4
votes
1answer
344 views

time in time series database - UTC or local

I strictly store UTC time stamps inside time series files or databases, mainly to allow processing several time series together. Timezone information is kept with each time series file or item, so ...
6
votes
0answers
236 views

is there a mapping from Altman Z-score for private companies to bond ratings or probability of default?

On wikipedia, there is a formula to calculate the Altman Z-score for private companies: Z-score estimated for private firms: T1 = (Current Assets − Current Liabilities) / Total Assets T2 = Retained ...
3
votes
2answers
363 views

NYSE binary data, convert to ASCII

The data product "TAQ NYSE Order Imbalances" from the New York Stock Exchange is in a format that is described pretty well in sections 4.8, 4.9, 4.10, and 5 of the document "NYSE Order Imbalances ...
0
votes
2answers
96 views

Intangible assets as underlying for Futures contracts

How is it possible for a Futures contract to have an intangible underlying? For example, to my knowledge, there exist Futures that have interest rates as their underlying, come delivery date, how is ...
2
votes
1answer
260 views

Testing for stationarity in large sample sizes

I keep struggling with testing 9 samples if they are stationary. Each of these samples is a real valued time series with 714.000 values. If I use the KPSS test with the each compleete sample set, the ...
4
votes
1answer
452 views

Quantitative risk model for an open real estate mutual fund in Europe

How useful are quantitative techniques for the risk analysis/management of a open real estate fund? I am thinking about an approach for Europe (US and other markets are probably quite different - ...
8
votes
4answers
3k views

Library of basic indicators

I am looking to start developing a trend following strategy and have been looking to do something in either C# or Java and wondered if there was a library or framework out there that would make ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Robust Bayesian portfolio optimization in matlab?

I am working through this paper. I want to implement the robust Bayesian optimization (see pages 6 onward) in Matlab using fmincon. Here is a brief overview of my problem: Let $\alpha$ be the ...
7
votes
1answer
906 views

What do eigenvalues/eigenvectors of the yield/forward rates covariance matrices mean?

I have 5 bonds (with maturities 1,2,3,4,5 years) which I calculated the yield curve for 10 days. I also calculated the forward rates from the yield rates. Now I've been told to calculate the ...
4
votes
2answers
701 views

Implications of the Riemann hypothesis in finance?

I was recently at a seminar by a top hedge fund manager at a top university for finance students, when one of the finance professors asked him what do you think are important areas of research for my ...
-4
votes
2answers
219 views

How to use mean-variance weights in practice (when going short is allowed)? [closed]

I have calculated my optimal portfolio weights following the mean-variance framework where I go $w_1$ in the risky asset and $1-w_1$ in the risk free rate. I get the following result: $w_1$ = 1.5, ...
2
votes
3answers
134 views

What do these maturity codes mean?

In fitting a curve I found that people are using the following tenors: U1 Z1 H2 M2 U2 Z2 2Y Could you please let me know what exact time periods they stand for? Is there a web page describing ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

How to calculate implied volatility and greeks in Bull Put Spread option strategy?

Ok, obviously I am buying lower strike put and selling higher strike put. What is the recommended volatility and greeks to consider in my trade? Volatility: Average volatility between both legs? ...
1
vote
0answers
116 views

What to do with linear regression or regression splines outside of the training range?

This is a cross-post from here In my question on a load forecast model using temperature data as covariates I was advised to use regression splines. This really seems to be a/the solution. Now I ...
4
votes
0answers
136 views

Simple question concerning Jump process (Lévy process) model for a risky actif price process [closed]

Consider $X= \left( X_t \right)_{t\geq 0}$ is a Lévy process whose characteristic triplet is $\left( \gamma, \sigma ^2, \nu \right)$ and where its Lévy measure is $$ \nu \left( dx\right) = A ...
11
votes
2answers
1k views

How to detect structural breaks in variance?

I'm looking for a method to automatically detect structural breaks, I tried Chow test, It works good but it doens't work for breaks in variance. Do you know a test to check strucutural break in ...
6
votes
4answers
698 views

What are the options for a mathematician to break into QF without working for a fund?

I have a degree in mathematics, and I've worked as a statistician and done some programming work. I'm very strong in my math/stats/programming background and have browsed some QF books, and I'm very ...
3
votes
1answer
233 views

Why are there different estimators for stock volatility? (realized variance, RAV, etc)

I am very confused about why different volatility estimators (RV, RAV, BPV, etc) exist. If the goal is to find the best estimator for stock volatility, and volatility is latent, how do I know which ...
5
votes
1answer
290 views

Are there any well known methods of testing through-the-cycle rating systems?

Rating systems, as defined by the Basel II Accord, can be classified into two broad types - through-the-cycle (TTC) or point-in-time (PIT) - and the probability of default predicted by such a system ...
4
votes
1answer
500 views

Applying interest rate shocks under Solvency II

I'm trying to figure out how one would apply the stress scenarios defined under the interest rate risk sub module of Solvency II. I understand that all future cash flows of an interest rate sensitive ...
2
votes
2answers
179 views

Liquidity in a market risk model based on historical simulation

I would like to model liquidity effects in my risk model which is based on historical simulation. I would like to develop a practical solution that still captures liquidity effects. Most probably I ...
4
votes
2answers
9k views

What do the terms in-sample and out-of-sample estimates mean in MVO?

How do the in-sample estimates and out-of-sample estimates I so often hear authors refer to in emperical analysis of MVO differ?
3
votes
2answers
449 views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of OHLC over VWAP?

I would like to ask about maybe obvious thing for many people, but cannot find a good answer for it. In many, many places I see OHLC data along with OHLC analysis tools. As I deduce step by step in ...
14
votes
3answers
650 views

Empirical or theoretical quant insights that have shaped your thinking?

What are some quant theoretical or empirical insights that have shaped your thinking or provided a deeper conceptual basis for explaining returns and risk?
7
votes
2answers
1k views

Simulation of GBM

I have a question regarding the simulation of a GBM. I have found similar questions here but nothing which takes reference to my specific problem: Given a GBM of the form $dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + ...
5
votes
1answer
394 views

NYSE Early Close Rules (July 4th and Dec. 25th)

Does the NYSE provide a list of rules for determining when to close at 1:00 for a holiday? I have found a list of upcoming half-days here but I would like to know the rules so that I don't have to ...
4
votes
2answers
653 views

Statistical significance of a pair trading strategy

How can I test the significance of a pair trading strategy, i.e. that the H0 is "The strategy has no predicting power". I was considering to use the technique in Evidence Based Technical Analysis ...
0
votes
1answer
198 views

Numerical difficulties in fitting option prices

In [1], the authors state that "Although some studies apply the curve-fitting method directly to option prices, the severely nonlinear relationship between option price and strike price often leads to ...
4
votes
1answer
395 views

Volatility models using Rugarch

I have estimated sGARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH, which some for particular models are significant. For others, the alpha remain insignificant using various innovations such as the skewed variants of the ...
4
votes
0answers
205 views

Estimation of ranks of log-returns via copula

I have successfully chosen and estimate a copula for the ranks of the log-returns of my actions. My question is, since I have worked with the ranks instead of directly the log-returns (in order to be ...
4
votes
2answers
370 views

How to quickly sketch a second order greek profile for a vanilla position?

Assume that you are given an arbitrary payoff profile for European vanilla position (e.g. butterfly). How to make a back of the envelope sketch of a second order greek profile for it (i.e. plot ...
1
vote
1answer
188 views

Are Papers and Funds reporting Monthly drawdowns using daily granularity?

I'm curious as to how many academic studies and industry white papers are actually using daily data to report intramonth drawdowns; specifically, when the papers are often reporting monthly signals, ...
8
votes
2answers
736 views

Why do low standard deviation stocks tend to have superior future returns?

I've recently stumbled on something that really surprised me. These papers (1, 2) find that past standard deviation of returns is inversely related to future returns. That is, portfolio of low ...
4
votes
4answers
1k views

Other means of calibrating Heston models

I understand that the simplest way of calibrating a Heston model for volatility surface is to use Monte-Carlo to simulate the vol and stock price trajectories and then use the observed price to do a ...
5
votes
1answer
432 views

Robust-Bayesian optimization in Markowitz framework

Suppose we are in the mean-variance optimization setting with a vector of returns $\alpha$ and a vector of portfolio weights $\omega$. In a robust setting, the returns are assumed to lie in some ...
3
votes
4answers
1k views

What is the industry standard Quant Finance modeling library for F#

If it exists, has been agreed on, and F# programmers have used it extensively, I would like to know what is the industry standard Quant Finance library for F#. What typical finance scenario(s) have ...
0
votes
1answer
712 views

Liquidity detection based strategy in HFT

This article contains the following statement. In terms of liquidity detection, traders intend to decipher whether there are large orders existing in a matching engine by sending out small ...
11
votes
5answers
2k views

How can I quantitatively test the validity of momentum indicators?

I am learning about quantitative finance, and I am struck by how different it is from the techniques that make it into magazines and TV, particularly technical analysis. Specifically, if they say an ...
10
votes
7answers
990 views

When hiring a quant, how can I protect my IP?

I am a one-man operation, and would like to hire a quant for around 4 weeks or work. I am worried that the person I hire might copy my data or the indicators that I have him work on. What have ...
6
votes
3answers
679 views

The Basis of Using Technical Indicators as Inputs

In the process of my research I very often come across academic papers regarding modelling and trading strategies that in one way or another incorporate some technical indicators. For example in some ...
1
vote
1answer
813 views

Which prediction market model is efficient and simple to use?

For a college project I'm tasked with implementing prediction market. Which model of it I'd better choose? I want something useful and simple enough for other people to quickly understand and use. ...
6
votes
0answers
203 views

Basel CVA VaR with R/WWR

In Basel III the CVA VaR “is restricted to changes in the counterparties’ credit spreads and does not model the sensitivity of CVA to changes in other market factors, such as changes in the value of ...
5
votes
0answers
285 views

Analyzing the angle between vector of weights and vector of returns in mean-variance optimization

I am using the paper "A Sharper Angle on Optimization" by Golts and Jones (2009) as a basis for my (minor) masters thesis in mathematical finance. The paper focuses on the mean-variance analysis of ...

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