4
votes
5answers
408 views

Is there a name for, or any research on, a system where you try to predict future price by finding a similar price history in the past?

Allow me to explain. You look back from some period to the present. Say a week ago to now, using a per-minute view. You then crawl through your database of past price data, and you try to find a ...
1
vote
0answers
223 views

Credit Spread, Transition Matrix

Consider a credit rating system consisting of three credit states, A, B and D (default) with the following annual credit transition probability: T = [0.7 0.2 0.1;0.2 0.5 0.3; 0 0 1]. For a company ...
1
vote
3answers
176 views

How often do banks update forward points?

My understanding is that forward rates are calculated by comparing interbank interest rates of the 2 currencies for a currency pair, with the points being the difference between spot and the forward ...
6
votes
3answers
385 views

How to choose a risk-neutral measure when the market is incomplete?

I am more of a probabilist than a financial mathematician. I am currently working on the features of American put options under a particular stochastic volatility model. Like most stochastic ...
5
votes
1answer
227 views

Does risk-neutral measure have anything to deal with risk-neutrality in utility theory?

Or simply: why do we call equivalent martingale measures as risk-neutral measures? In the utility or game theory, when we consider a person's preferences to certain outcomes, we often deal with the ...
1
vote
2answers
116 views

Controlling portfolio concentration

I'm working with a heterogenous basket of instruments (in volatility terms). Risk parity allocation seems to be useful for the portfolio( * 1/Volatility). However, there are times when the ...
2
votes
1answer
121 views

Is the volatility of a trader's wealth equal to the volatility of the underlying assets traded?

Assume that a trader trades in several stocks with different volatilities. The return of the trader's portfolio would be the weighted average of returns and the risk would be a function of the the ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

Value Weighted Return

I recently have started to look at some data from CRSP, and they have a metric called Value Weighted Return (two versions with and without distributions). When I looked it up, it seemed that this ...
1
vote
1answer
172 views

Effects of random-generator-choice on derivative's price

There is a plethora of pseudo-random-generators out there. Some of them are definetly better and some of them severily underperform. My standard tool is Mersenne Twister - when I need to generate ...
1
vote
2answers
1k views

Reading XBRL Data from the SEC FTP SITE

After I ftp into the SEC Edgar site (ftp.sec.gov) I am able to pull the appropriate financial statements (i.e., 10-k, 10-q, 8-k, etc.) onto my local computer. However, when I go to open these files, I ...
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Definition of Return of A Long/short Portfolio

This can either be a silly question or a question with no sure rigorous answer but defined with some convention. Any way, here it is. What is the (industrial recognized) definition of the return of a ...
1
vote
1answer
245 views

Price of Bond given credit state matrix

"Consider a credit rating system consisting of four states, A,B,and D(default) with the following annual credit transition probability: A= [ 0.7, 0.2, 0.1; 0.2, 0.5,0.3; 0,0,1] For a company rated B,...
0
votes
2answers
112 views

SEC XBRL Context Dates

In SEC XBRL financial filings, why do the date ranges for duration contexts not match the context's quarter? e.g. The markup for the context "D2012Q3" may look like: ...
0
votes
3answers
83 views

Standard way to represent trend in an a-dimensional way [closed]

Let us suppose that a factory needs to know when certain products are increasing the profit. This factory produces an huge number of products each with different targets. So the factory need to ...
5
votes
0answers
55 views

What type of interpolation should be used in key rate perturbation models?

When perturbing a key rate in order to assess sensitivity of portfolio value, what sort of interpolation is standard? A book I am looking at says linear, but this seems pretty unrealistic to me--and ...
1
vote
1answer
176 views

Direct exchange data via a Vendor

I am considering the option between using direct exchange connections vs using a vendor like Bloomberg for market data. I am interested in daily data and potentially tick by tickdata. Initially I am ...
5
votes
1answer
301 views

Definition of orthogonality and independence for a stochastic processes

Somehow I can't find the explicit definition of when two processes are supposed to be orthogonal or independent anywhere. I think orthogonality and independence should mean the same thing in this ...
0
votes
1answer
636 views

Difference between VaR and credit VaR?

Quick question: is there a difference between credit VaR and VaR or are they the same thing?
4
votes
1answer
441 views

How is the MA (moving average model) useful?

How is the MA model useful in modeling financial data, for example the stock indices? For example, from what i understand in the AR (auto-regressive) model portion, we can use the ADF test to check ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Valuing Total Return Swaps

In my quest for simulated data, I am trying to generate prices for Total Return Swaps by calculating the NPVs of the fixed and floating leg. My problem: Given the fixed leg, how do I set the spread on ...
5
votes
2answers
322 views

Risk neutral Esscher transform of exponential Levy processes

Let $X_t$ be a Levy Process and $e^{X_t}$ the corresponding exponential Levy process. Using the Esscher transform for a change of measure for which the Radon-Nykodym derivative is $$\frac{d\mathbb{Q}}...
1
vote
0answers
238 views

Mock/practice trading for options (delta/gamma hedging etc.)

I know there are some sites for practicing equity investing. But could you provide me with suggestions concerning options trading etc. I read Natenbergs book on Options and want to test things like ...
0
votes
1answer
62 views

CAPM as pricing formula

P - price that the asset was purchased. Q - price that it was sold P = Q/(1+r+B(R_m - r)) What is the financial meaning of denominator. Thanks for help.
3
votes
1answer
524 views

Scaling of a transition matrix

I am working on a ratings transition matrix and I wondered how people scale it down to shorter time periods (although one should more or less stick to the estimation period i know). It is clear that ...
3
votes
2answers
374 views

How can I show that $u=e^{\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}}$ in the binomial option pricing model

Given that $e^{r\Delta t}(u+d)-ud-e^{2r\Delta t} = \sigma^2\Delta t$ I would like to show that $u=e^{\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}}$ I know I must somehow use Taylor's approximation $e^x = 1 + x + \frac{...
7
votes
3answers
752 views

Convexity of BS Equation for Call and Put

I have a simple question. Is the Black-Scholes Formula convex with respect to Implied volatility parameter $\sigma$ (for calls or put) ? When I say Black-Scholes I mean for a call the following one ...
0
votes
0answers
79 views

Log returns vs Relativizing to Portfolio size of $1

In a current empirical research project, I am tracking a non-parametric measure of a transaction cost. To this extent, I track this cost in two ways Cost in terms of log returns Cost in terms of ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

Optimal lag length selection criterion in GARCH(p,q) model using MATLAB

As assessed by the title, I'm trying to estimate a GARCH(p,q) model to forecast stock market volatility and, in order to be able to do that, I've to identify the optimal number of lags, p and q, to ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

evaluating portfolio performance without knowing the amount held on cash accounts

I would like to evaluate the performance of a portfolio mananger. I know his trades, and the initial portfolio holdings. I do not know, however the amount held on his cash account. That is, I ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

How to incorporate fundamental analysis in quantitative trading algorithm? [closed]

I want to write a quantitative stock trading program based on fundamental analysis. It would crunch through prices, financial reports to look for value stocks. It can support backtesting of strategy ...
1
vote
3answers
4k views

What does it mean by autocorrelation coefficient near 1?

It is said that the time series has a stochastic trend if the first autocorrelation coefficient will be near 1. Q1) What does it mean by the above statement? Q2) How do we calculate the first ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

Calculate volatility from call option price

Given call option price, what is the simplest formula to get the volatility value ? Test Data: ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

How do I calculate probability distribution of stock prices given option prices?

I'd like to calculate a probability distribution for prices given the option prices for that stock? Any ideas how to do this? My desire is to do this daily and then see how the price PD changes over ...
1
vote
1answer
256 views

Directional View of Volatility

What is an option strategy that someone could employ to simply go long/short volatility?? Assuming I want 0 delta(0 gamma if possible) risk in my option position, how do I take a directional view on ...
2
votes
0answers
52 views

How can dividend protection be considered in the binomial model in pricing the convertible bond?

If the convertible bond has dividend-protection, how can we cater it in the binomial model? If there is dividend protection at or above 1%, can we impose input of dividend yield of 1% in the ...
6
votes
4answers
9k views

Data source for historical Share Outstanding totals for individual stocks?

Data is normally adjusted for splits/reverse splits, etc. The current shares outstanding is usually available. Is there a data repository that captures the shares outstanding for any point in the ...
2
votes
1answer
361 views

What are the equation that gives hurst exponent of value >0.7 and <0.3?

I had been working on algorithm which uses the Hurst Exponent. Once i random walk simulation on matlab, x = cumsum(randm(1000,1)), I was able to get a hurst value close to 0.5. To analyze the use of ...
-1
votes
1answer
71 views

Calculating the sensitivity of the modified bond duration to changes in the coupon rate

Given that $B=Ce^{-y} + Ce^{-2y}+ (100+C)e^{-3y}$ where B is the bond price, C is the coupon. and It is a 3 years annual coupon bond. I want to find $\frac{dD}{dC}$ where $D$ is the modified duration....
5
votes
3answers
224 views

Why was NASDAQ(or other index) not fluctuating in 70s and 80s?

Today I have a search of historical NASDAQ back to 70s and noticed the index was slightly increasing in 70s-early 90s and rising up and down in recent decade of years. Why would that happen? The only ...
1
vote
1answer
199 views

Volatility calculation for intra-day cash-or-nothing call binary option

Firstly, I do not have a quant finance background. This is new to me, and I imagine that this is a basic question for this group. I am calculating the price of a binary/digital option with closed-...
2
votes
1answer
273 views

Call option on a Mutual Fund

I am trying to price a call option on a mutual fund. Given the lack of market implied data, I am going to estimate the fund´s expected volatility using as a reference its historical volatility (...
1
vote
1answer
91 views

What is a good index to track short term interest rates?

This is an FX question. I want to track short term (overnight or next best thing) rates for major/em ccys. What's the best way of doing this? Is there an index I can follow? Preferably something ...
0
votes
1answer
165 views

Volatility swaps historical data

I am preparing a study about Volatility and Variance Swaps. Does anyone know where I can found historical public data regarding this instruments? Thanks!
4
votes
0answers
493 views

Explanation or implementation of Ledoit-Wolf estimator (without math packages)

I have calculated weights of selected assets in a market-neutral portfolio (presumably with min variance) using PCA and simple data covariance matrix. The question is : It is obvious that Cov Matrix ...
7
votes
2answers
364 views

Normally Distributed Returns Become Leptokurtic Due to Compounding

I was running a bunch of simple simulations in excel the other day in excel. Using the NORM.INV(RAND(),0,1) to simulate daily stock returns I noticed that the more compounded the returns, ie, the more ...
10
votes
1answer
576 views

Is creating constrained random portfolios a hard problem?

Creating random portfolios with weights $x_i$ can be thought of as sampling from the surface of a simplex given by $$Ex = f$$ and $$Ax \le b$$ Where $E$ and $A$ are constraint matrices for equality ...
2
votes
1answer
212 views

How to perform significance test on transition matrices

Say you have in your hand a transition matrix published by Moody, and you also collected the rating information for a sample of bonds, which you use to form your own transition matrix. How can we use ...
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Characterizing relation “ has no less information than” between information systems represented by Markovian matrices

I crossposted this question on math.stackexchange. Background: Suppose that an investor's utility is both determined by the state and her action taken. A fact of life is that she can't observe the ...
4
votes
2answers
115 views

Critique against consumption-based asset pricing theory?

I find asset pricing theory very vague and full of assumptions, especially the consumption-based modern theory. In its essence, the theory states that asset prices depend on the covariance between ...
24
votes
5answers
4k views

Trading a synthetic replication of the VIX index

One cannot directly buy and sell the VIX index. Theoretically, however, one could approximate the index by purchasing an at-the-money straddle on the SP500, then delta-hedging the straddle. Does ...

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