3
votes
1answer
2k views

Can the duration of a bond be greater than Time to Maturity

In the case of a vanilla bond I know that the duration will be less than the time to maturity. But I am observing that for a non-vanilla bond, the duration is greater than time to maturity. Can ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Portfolio Optimization : Shrinkage of Covariance Matrix when data is available

It seems that shrinking the covariance matrix is especially useful if the number of individual stocks is greater than the number of data points. However is there any special gain if you're not ...
3
votes
0answers
313 views

Microstructure effects for a market maker? [closed]

When building a market maker that rests limits orders on both sides of the book, what microstructure effects should we be looking at to price those orders? I’m targeting liquid futures markets, and ...
3
votes
1answer
920 views

How to sum interest rate curves in QuantLib

C++ code taken from Bonds.cpp and slightly amended: ...
3
votes
0answers
173 views

Credit Rating vs Bond Yield

I am looking for some references on quantifying the dependence between credit rating and bond yield. I have some data (found some Bloomberg indices which give average yield based on credit rating), ...
3
votes
1answer
871 views

Replicating strategy in the Black-Scholes model

I have a two-asset Black-Scholes model for a financial market: $dB_t=B_t r dt$ $dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma dW_t)$ I introduce a European claim $\xi=max(K,S_T)$ with maturity $T$, for some fixed $K$. I ...
3
votes
1answer
855 views

Risk-free rate for ex-post evaluation of investment strategy

When evaluating the strategy ex-post using e.g. Sharpe ratio, what should one use as the risk-free rate? Let's suppose I am using a 1Y sample of weekly returns, sampled between 2012-01-01 and ...
3
votes
2answers
334 views

Comparison of Brownian Motion Expected Drawdown and simulated results

Can anyone tell me whether results as predicted by Brownian Motion for a given mean and std, match what you get by measuring actual drawdown from simulated results over a number of iterations?
3
votes
4answers
5k views

Why is short term implied volatility typically higher?

Why do short term implieds move more than long term?
3
votes
4answers
765 views

Yield of a risky bond

When working with risky bonds, i.e. corporate bonds, what is usually defined as the yield of such a bond? Is it the yield calculated as if the bond was riskless, or is it calculated by properly taking ...
3
votes
0answers
385 views

VaR backtesting with overlapping time intervals

Of course the issue here is dependence: can it be removed or accounted for (in independence tests too, which of course would be troublesome)? There's a lot of literature on regression in this setting, ...
3
votes
2answers
3k views

Calculating Portfolio Skewness & Kurtosis

I need to calculate the skewness and kurtosis of 2 asset portfolio, can someone please help me with the formulas and definition of terms? Thank you. I have been using the matrices method and I am not ...
3
votes
0answers
986 views

Which CEP platform is most popular for trading systems? [closed]

I heard that trading firms employ CEP platforms such as StreamBase, Marketcetera, JBoss Drools, and etc., to implement trading systems. I wonder which one is most popular and the recent trend of ...
2
votes
1answer
64 views

Calculating probability of options with normal/lognormal distribution: does time make a difference?

I'm trying to calculate the probability of a calendar spread resulting in a profit at expiration, when estimating it is modeled as a lognormal distribution, by getting: ...
2
votes
2answers
59 views

Problem with obtaining densities

For my research I need to obtain a series of densities, however, I am encountering some problems. The first problem is perhaps very simple, but the answer eludes me. Let's say I have an observation ...
2
votes
1answer
55 views

Sharpe ratio with leveraged ETFs

There has been a discussion about how leverage affects Sharpe Ratios, but not in the context of leveraged ETFs (such as 2x or 3x). I'm just wondering how leveraged ETFs, if at all, change the ...
2
votes
3answers
115 views

Greeks for binary option?

How to derive an analytic formula of greeks for binary option? We know a vanilla option can be constructed by an asset-or-nothing call and a cash-or-nothing call, does that help us? Wikipedia states ...
2
votes
1answer
63 views

How to optimize a portfolio using skewness?

I am trying to do portfolio optimization for 5 stocks taking into account skewness of the portfolio but I am unable to incorporate skewness to the mean variance model. Can anyone please help on how ...
2
votes
2answers
109 views

Fundamental CAPM questions

A couple questions about the CAPM model: If I only know the riskfree rate and expected market return, how do I solve for $\beta$ ? Given the stock's variance, how do I solve the percentage of it ...
2
votes
2answers
80 views

Verifying an identity of an equation for Black Scholes formula

I just started working on the Black Scholes formula with help of the book Financial option valuation by Higham. Apparently you are possible to derive the following function: ...
2
votes
1answer
61 views

How to find optimal noise covariance matrices Q & R

I am trying to use the discrete Kalman filter for forecasting and I wonder what is commonly considered as the optimal way of determining the measurement noise covariance constants (Q and R) for a ...
2
votes
1answer
276 views

2-step estimation of DCC GARCH model in Python

Embedded in this thread are multiple questions. I'm currently im the process of implementing a DCC GARCH forecast model on quantopian (a python-powered trading platform). The two step consists of ...
2
votes
2answers
177 views

Forex trading scenarios - calculating units

I'm trying to build an automated forex trading system and I'm trying to understand how to calculate the number of units I should specify for each trade in different scenarios. Say for example I have ...
2
votes
2answers
196 views

probability question about brownian motion

Assume $W_{t}$ is a standard Brownian Motion, calculate the the probability that $W_{t}*W_{2t}$ is negative, i.e., $P(W_{t}*W_{2t}<0)$. I find it tricky to calculate the probability.Thank you.
2
votes
2answers
123 views

Using Black-Scholes to price a geometric average price call

Sorry if this is the wrong exchange for this question. It seems to be the most relevant, anyway. I'm trying to learn and understand the Black-Scholes framework, with a focus on the stochastic ...
2
votes
2answers
168 views

Calculating time value of an option

Can someone provide me with a robust way of calculating the future time value of an option or point in the direction? I have been reading a lot about the factors that affect it and about betas and ...
2
votes
3answers
312 views

What are pros and cons of mean absolute deviation portfolio optimization?

In this question a paper about mean absolute deviation portfolio optimization is mentioned and in the answer a spreadsheet with an implementation is attached. What is the use of this procedure? Does ...
2
votes
1answer
69 views

What is the filtration described?

What is the filtration $(\mathfrak{F}_t)$ encircled below? Is it $(\mathfrak{F}_t) = (\sigma(W_t)) = (\sigma(\tilde{W_t})), t \in [0,T]$? Or is it $(\mathfrak{F}_t) = (\sigma(\hat{W_t})), t \in ...
2
votes
2answers
528 views

Why gamma and theta have opposite signs?

I saw some textbooks use B-S equation to explain why gamma and theta have opposite signs in most of the cases. For example, John Hull's classic book. The explanation is, first write B-S equation in ...
2
votes
1answer
339 views

What is Margin of Conservatism

In modelling loss given default,(LGD), we often encounter the term Margin of Conservatism. What is it in layman's terms? I am not able to find a wikipedia page on this.
2
votes
1answer
205 views

CIR model: is the short rate really non-central $\chi^2$ distributed?

Probably simple question. Consider the CIR (1985) model for interest rates $$ dr = k(\theta - r)dt + \sigma \sqrt{r}dz $$ Then it is known in closed form the conditional pdf $f(r(s),s|r(t),t)$ ($s ...
2
votes
3answers
492 views

Calculate bond returns from yields

I have to construct and evaluate portfolio of bonds and stocks, namely I need to get return on portfolio, standard deviation and sharpe ratios. I have weekly data that contains stock prices, and I ...
2
votes
3answers
223 views

Interpolating probabilities of default

I have a table of cumulative probabilities of default of industrial bonds, in time and credit rating. It is similar to S&P whitepaper here. Basically, it looks like this (sample numbers): ...
2
votes
1answer
807 views

Risk-Free Rate determinant in CAPM

I have trouble understanding what type of maturity to use when calculating CAPM. My professor uses the 3-Month risk-free rate to ...
2
votes
2answers
746 views

How to calculate the volatility matrix with multiple stocks

calculating the volatility for a single stock is straightforward. However, I'm not sure whether my approach for calculating the volatility matrix for multiple stocks is correct: I assume a log-normal ...
2
votes
2answers
560 views

How to use the stock as a numeraire to price a derivative with payoff of the form $(S_T f(S_T))^+$?

I have $\frac{dS_t}{S_t} = rdt + \sigma dW_t$ as usual under the money-market numéraire and I need to price options with payoffs $$(S_T f(S_T))^+$$ How do I express the stock dynamics using the ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

What is the equation for Garman-Klass volatility?

I want to calculate realized/historical volatility for the underlying products of various options using the Garman-Klass estimator, but I can't see to find an equation, although I know it involves ...
2
votes
1answer
581 views

Need overlapping sample autocorrelation correction for calculating asset return correlations

I want to measure the covariance structure of various asset returns based on varying investment periods. Campbell and Viceira (2005) do this, using known return predictors (i.e. dividend yield, ...
2
votes
1answer
339 views

Recovery rate in a structured bond

I need to model the recovery rate of a structured bond whose expected cash flows, if the issuer remains solvent, will be very low. For instance, assume that I need to estimate the recovery amount of a ...
2
votes
1answer
504 views

annual excess returns from CAPM on monthly total returns

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
2
votes
0answers
321 views

Any one know how to implement the Heston and Rouwenhorst country-sector effects regression in R?

Heston and Rouwenhorst (1994) devised an empirical estimation strategy to decompose stock returns into three components: a pure industry effect, a pure country effect, and a world-factor return. ...
2
votes
1answer
169 views

Historical data on short rates

I would like to backtest a short-equity strategy. I'm looking for historical data on the availability of shares and cost to short certain stocks. Does anyone know of such data being available ...
2
votes
6answers
339 views

What is the Benefit of holding a short option?

i am new to corporate finance and ask myself why a investor is interested in being short on a Option? The only he can win is a premium but he can loose much more. I understand with being a short I can ...
2
votes
1answer
627 views

Reduce correlation in output of Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization

After running a minimum variance portfolio optimization on a universe of ETF's I see the resulting portfolios tend to be composed of bond ETF or related treasuries/government ETFs. I suppose that ...
1
vote
1answer
48 views

method/technique for finding arbitrage

I was able to solve this problem and find the arbitrage but only after spending a long time on it and trying out different possibilites, is there a method or technique that can help me find the ...
1
vote
2answers
153 views

Geometric brownian motion vs. Ornstein Uhlenbeck

I'm looking at the SDE of Geometric brownian motion(*): $$d X(t) = \sigma X(t) d B(t) + \mu X(t) d t$$ (with analytic solution $X(t) = X(0) e^{(\mu - \sigma^2 / 2) t + \sigma B(t)}$) and the SDE of ...
1
vote
1answer
149 views

Long Forward Rate Agreement, short Eurodollar futures

For this question If you are long a FRA and short a ED future with the same fixing dates, do you have positive convexity or negative convexity? The answer is positive convexity, because a ...
1
vote
1answer
66 views

Prove $E_{\mathbb Q}[X_t | \mathscr F_u] = X_u$ given $Y_t$ is a martingale

We are given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \{\mathscr{F}_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}, \mathbb{P})$, where $\{\mathscr{F}_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}$ is the filtration generated by standard $\mathbb ...
1
vote
1answer
84 views

Prove uniqueness, and prove $Y_t$ is a martingale by considering $dZ_t$ and $dL_t$

Suppose we are given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \{\mathscr{F}_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}, \mathbb{P})$, where $\{\mathscr{F}_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}$ is the filtration generated by standard ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

Portfolio Optimization with equal weight for assets selected

I have a data frame of bets, with 1 being a win and 0 being a loss. These bets are correlated so I cannot just pick the highest winning percentage. Goal is to get 2 optimizations, 1 for max sharpe ...

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