2
votes
1answer
280 views

Resources for performance statistics of trading systems

I'm looking for an online resource to study the usual performance statistics (CAGR, MaxDD, Payoff Ratio, Win/Loss Ratio, etc.) of trading systems, preferably trend-following systems. I know that ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

Where do swap rates and/or long-term forward rates come from?

I apologize if this is supposed to be obvious, but ... . Libor spot rates are quoted up to a year, beyond that one can use Eurodollar futures to continue to build the curve. Let's say up to 3 years. ...
4
votes
3answers
1k views

Searching for pairs-trading in sub O(n^2 t) time

Let there be $n$ stock symbols. Let each stock symbol have exactly $t$ ticks (with all ticks miraculously aligned.) We are now searching for potential pairs for pair trading. A brute-force solution ...
5
votes
1answer
421 views

Major FX pairs - Pentahedron Data Structure

I read an interview today with Stephane Coquillaud. He talked about this idea of formulating a data set of the G5 currencies as a pentahedron. The obvious benefit is the fact that there is more ...
2
votes
1answer
146 views

Why for one year (and not two or three) government bonds (there is a spike for Switzerland & Denmark)?

On 10.10.2012, I have looked at the bond-rates and, both for Switzerland and Denmark, there is a discontinuity/spike at 1Y, as per below Switzerland: ON= -0.09, 1W= -0.180, 1M= -0.230, 3M= -0.2, 6M= ...
4
votes
2answers
929 views

Which objective function should I choose to minimize tracking error?

Let say I have $n$ assets and their returns over $m$ periods which are represented by a matrix $X \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$, and I have some other asset with return over the same period which is ...
1
vote
0answers
475 views

Oscillatory time-series forecasting

I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? ...
1
vote
1answer
544 views

CARA Utility function expected utility

I have been trying to undestand how the expected utility for a CARA negative exponential Utility function is calculated. In my particular case the variable has normally distributed returns. Could ...
2
votes
0answers
80 views

How to trade risk-adjusted returns?

Why does dividing daily returns by daily range eliminates fat tails and results in an (almost) gaussian distribution? And how could that distribution be exploited to enter trades?
3
votes
1answer
170 views

How do I model risks for specific short-term short calls in a portfolio with limited data?

I'm trying to do some risk analysis on a portfolio of bonds, currency, stocks and short calls. The short calls expire in approximately 15-30 days and I've only got around 20 days of pricing data on ...
2
votes
2answers
249 views

Greeks and Option Premium

If a linear sum of options is constructed such that the premium payout is zero, then does it mean that resultant greeks of the cumulated options positions will be nearly zero. For simplicity, lets ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Trading a synthetic replication of the VVIX (volatility of VIX)

In the same spirit as this question: Trading a synthetic replication of the VIX index. The VVIX tracks the volatility of the VIX. One cannot directly buy and sell the VVIX index and, as opposed to ...
4
votes
0answers
190 views

Discrete-time Jump-Diffusion Model

I am wondering if anybody could point me to any literature that talks about a discrete time version of the jump-diffusion model, I am aware that there is a paper by Amin (1993) that shows a discrete ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Detrending price data for analysis of signal returns

I'm looking to conduct hypothesis tests on some of my trading signals to see if the signal returns are statistically significant enough to falsify my null hypothesis that the signal has no predictive ...
2
votes
1answer
280 views

In Yahoo! Finance, what determines the number of decimals for a stock/index quote?

In Yahoo! Finance, we see the following quotes among others: ...
4
votes
1answer
173 views

How to properly cross-validate when optimizing SVM classification?

I'm using SVM binary classification to predict movement of NASDAQ stock prices. My question is regarding cross-validation. I will divide the training data into V subsets. Training will be performed on ...
5
votes
2answers
220 views

Can money technically flow in and out of stocks or asset classes?

For every buyer, there is a seller. Money can't 'flow' in and out of a stock, only the price changes. Is this applicable in the context of asset classes, for example, money market funds versus stocks? ...
4
votes
0answers
172 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
3
votes
1answer
363 views

How to calculate probability of touching a take-profit without touching a stop-loss?

How to calculate probability of touching a take-profit without touching a stop-loss (no-dividend stock, infinite time)?
9
votes
4answers
1k views

Why the interest rate for put-call parity is not constant?

Usimg the put-call parity $C - P = S - K · e^{-rt}$ I tried to estimate the value of $e^{-rt}$, the present value of a zero-coupon bond that matures to 1 in time $t$: $e^{-rt} = (P - C + S) / K$ ...
2
votes
2answers
483 views

performance attribution

I am trying to do some performance attribution for a few portfolios we manage. What I am trying to examine are three different sources of returns: The general asset allocation Security Selection The ...
4
votes
2answers
984 views

Pair Trading Index Options

Suppose the trade is between Index Options of two Indices X and Y which are quite similar (but not exactly). So for the equivalent strikes, one can quote option on Index X and cover in Index Y. But ...
2
votes
1answer
259 views

Combining covariances?

Consider an economy with assets with return processes $A$, $B$, $C$, $D$. Consider a weighted index with return process $I=aA + bB + cC + dD$ where $a,b,c,d$ are coefficients, and $a+b+c+d = 1$. ...
7
votes
4answers
5k views

Analyzing tick data

What are some of the commonly used techniques to analyze tick data? I am looking at tick data to see how the quotes/ mid-price evolves due to certain events in the market. Since tick data is ...
-2
votes
1answer
736 views

Is it possible to “steal” financial data on publicly traded companies off the internet? Legally, I mean, what is the truth about “data” as a property

What constitutes "stealing" when it comes to publicly posted financial data? I think there are three instances of this that we can individually vet: a.) you physically broke into a location or ...
1
vote
1answer
96 views

Generating Return Streams for stress testing

There is never enough market data for testing. And sampling from user defined distribution is a hotly debated subject as which distribution does the market really go with? There are many ways to ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

How to account for bid/ask spread when backtesting?

I'm backtesting an algorithm for trading nasdaq stocks, and would like to take into account the spread. I am using historical data from yahoo, which contains: open, high, low, close, volume, adj. ...
7
votes
3answers
6k views

Why would a 6M LIBOR rate be significantly above 3M LIBOR, ED futures and swap rates?

Just was just looking at the various interest rates and noticed this: ...
2
votes
2answers
570 views

constructing a minimum variance portfolio

Assume a US-based company has sold something to a Norwegian company. It will receive 1M Norwegian Kroner in two months, and would like to hedge this future cash flow against currency exchange risk. ...
9
votes
2answers
4k views

When to use Monte Carlo simulation over analytical methods for options pricing?

I've been using Monte Carlo simulation (MC) for pricing vanilla options with non-lognormal underlyings returns. I'm tempted to start using MC as my primary option-valuating technique as I can get ...
17
votes
2answers
669 views

Measuring Behavioral Finance Effects in Fund/Portfolio Manager Analysis

I want to know if there are some standardized measures to evaluate how irrationally human a portfolio manager is. Are there any performance measures or scorings for behavioral finance effects? How ...
4
votes
1answer
16k views

How to calculate equally weighted market portfolio

There's two studies that test the same thing in different markets (i.e. they apply the identical methodology). They state: 1) "$R_{mt}$ is the equally weighted average stock return in the dual-listed ...
7
votes
2answers
271 views

Testing for stock market herding over short periods

The literature has well established methods for testing stock market herding over a decent time window. Are there any ways that have appeared in the literature to test for stock market herding over ...
2
votes
1answer
520 views

Running a simple alpha estimation test for statistical significance of a signal

I'm looking for some direction on testing whether a simple entry signal has statistical significance. Let's say this is my simple entry signal: Buy when some indicator has a positive slope and is ...
1
vote
1answer
179 views

Resampled efficient frontier length of simulation

I was provided with a VBA program from my lecturer that applies the resampled efficient frontier. We have an investment horizon $T$ (6 years) and he uses a multivariate normal distribution with ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

Michaud's Resampled Efficient Frontier - Out of Sample Simulation Testing

I will be putting ALL my account points on bounty to whoever answers this question [if your answer is crap but it's the only answer, you're getting the 165 points]. You will have to wait 2 days or so ...
0
votes
2answers
516 views

Howto Calculate An Error's Partial Derivative in ANN

This is a follow-on question from this post I made, "Multilayer Perceptron (Neural Network) for Time Series Prediction", a few months back. I'm constructing a feed-forward artificial neural network, ...
5
votes
2answers
173 views

Economic contagion to individual stocks (ideas for analysis)

I'm doing my undergraduate thesis on firm-level contagion. Specifically I look at a measure of performance over a financial crisis (e.g. raw stock returns), then run cross-sectional regressions with ...
3
votes
1answer
583 views

What are the advantages of knowing the bid and ask over the best bid and ask?

I am importing historical intraday tick data from Bloomberg and I noticed the Bloomberg API allows users to import best bid, best ask, bid, and ask prices If I am backtesting a trading strategy, what ...
3
votes
1answer
391 views

Integrating log-normal

The usual log normal model in differential form is: $dS = \mu S dt + \sigma S dX$ where $dX$ is the stochastic part, so $\frac{dS}{S} = \mu dt + \sigma dX$ (1) and we normally solve this by ...
1
vote
1answer
444 views

Unsystematic/Idiosyncratic/Firm-specific volatility/variance in the market model?

I was asked to use idiosyncratic volatility as a regressor in a cross-sectional regression upon cross-sectional returns as the dependent variable. Returns can be thought of as the raw log stock return ...
3
votes
0answers
386 views

VaR backtesting with overlapping time intervals

Of course the issue here is dependence: can it be removed or accounted for (in independence tests too, which of course would be troublesome)? There's a lot of literature on regression in this setting, ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Comparing MVO with Resampled Efficient Frontier

My question: How can I compare the Resampled Frontier (REF) to the standard MVO frontier when I have been provided with $\mu$, $\Omega$, and don't have access to true future data to test real out of ...
1
vote
1answer
334 views

equity linked notes (bull/bear equity performance bonds)

I have to price what my lecturer calls "Bull and Bear Equity Performance Bonds". Basically there's dates $t_i \in [0,T]$, where $t_i - t_{i-1}$ is the same for all choice of $i$. On each date the bull ...
0
votes
1answer
492 views

S&P 500 P/E percentile

I am researching the past five year return for the securities in the top and bottom 10 percentile of the S&P 500 on date 5 years ago. I used Bloomberg to get this data. When I searched for the ...
6
votes
5answers
2k views

Fastest solver possible for portfolio optimization

I am using quadprog in MATLAB for very simple mean-variance optimization, with less than 100 assets. It is quite fast but if I run a strategy with daily ...
6
votes
2answers
2k views

Strategies for Liar's Poker

This question is only tangentially related to quantitative finance. Scott Patterson's book The Quants describes how a quant at Kidder Peabody figured out a strategy to playing Liar's Poker in the late ...
7
votes
1answer
2k views

What happens if a custodian bank defaults?

This question follows up my answer and the related comment to this post and in general relates to counterparty risk. When you buy a financial asset, this asset goes in your account at your custodian ...
2
votes
0answers
112 views

Difference between kappa and delta in mixed-effects model

(This question is a crosspost from Cross Validated) I have a following stochastic model describing evolution of a process (Y) in space and time. Ds and Dt are domain in space (2D with x and y axes) ...
6
votes
4answers
327 views

Government bonds with negative yield

In the recent time-series of bonds issued by (for example) Germany, Austria and France we see an unfamiliar phenomenon: negative yields. This is mainly the issue on the short end of the yield curve. ...

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