All Questions

706 views

How to apply quasi-Monte Carlo to path-dependent options?

Following up on my recent question on variance reduction in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Monte Carlo simulation, I would like to learn more about using a quasi-random sequence, such as Sobol or Niederreiter, ...
501 views

How to group timeseries showing similar curve

I am trying to classify similar looking curves of a timeseries and was wondering what is the best algorithm to research. Reading R, it looks like k-means clustering could be applied - but I don't know ...
998 views

What is the precision of standard deviation estimates with small samples?

I was asked today to "quantify" the precision of an estimated the standard deviation from a small sample, I was not sure how to answer. The case is quite simple, I have a sample of $n=25$ measures ...
1k views

How to properly evaluate backtest returns?

Do you evaluate a strategy in a backtest based on the cumulative returns generated by the strategy (i.e. looking at the cumulative returns of the trades that occur) or do you start with a certain ...
379 views

How to reduce variance in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Monte Carlo simulation?

I am working out a numerical integral for option pricing in which I'm simulating an interest rate process using a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. Each step in my Monte Carlo generated path is a ...
255 views

Modeling interest rates with correlation

I'm trying to model interest rates, and will use the following equation: $dr = \mu r dt + \sigma r dW$ I'm also being told that interest rates are 40% correlated to S&P returns. How can I ...
347 views

How to balance two Forex crosses correctly to do a linear regression?

I have two cross and an account in EUR: EUR/USD GBP/USD I would like to do a balanced linear regression using R. With "balanced" I mean that I would like to normalize it by calculating the ...
1k views

When people say calculate moving average for 30 days include weekends or not? [closed]

This is blowing my mind a little bit, when someone wants to calculate a 30-day moving average of a commodity, do they mean 30 business days, or 30 calendar days? I'm looking for the general ...
199 views

Analysis of Unbalanced Covered Calls

Hello I am doing an analysis on covered calls with and extra amount of naked calls. Ignore the symbol and current macroeconomic events. I couldn't find any reference to this strategy (unbalanced is ...
2k views

How to apply the Kelly criterion when expected return may be negative?

My concern is how to handle a negative value for the Kelly formula. Even when you have a system that has positive expectancy, you can (and usually will) sustain a number of losses, sometimes ...
253 views

Value of option-free instruments with a short-rate model vs the spot curve

You can calculate the value of an option free bond or swap by using the spot curve and discounting cashflows accordingly. Alternatively, apparently you can use a single-factor short rate model in a ...
143 views

Buying one company or index against another, is this readily possible with options, with an accurate return (also Alpha Indexes)

There's a relatively new product in the market / on the Nasdaq called Alpha Indexes. It lets one own a company -- e.g. Apple, GE, Google, etc -- as the difference between how that company does (the ...
240 views

Are there “live” uses of the Generalized Method of Moments or are they all academic?

I see the Generalized Method of Moments suggested in numerous academic papers as a way to calibrate stochastic volatility models. However, any decent trading shop is going to calibrate to observable ...
2k views

How would I value a perpetual bond with an embedded option?

I am trying to work out how to value the following transactions. It should be straight forward, since it breaks down into a series of well known instruments, yet I am not sure how to evaluate it: ...
1k views

Quantlib in JavaScript? [closed]

Is there such a thing? Or is there a project around that aims to realize Quantlib in JS? I'm a JS coder and I'd like to get involved if so. Maybe it seems futile or insane today, but who can doubt ...
275 views

How would I calculate a stop on a pair trade? [closed]

I have a trading strategy that I use on single tickers. I'd like to start using it with pairs as well. However, I'm somewhat math challenged and not sure how to best calculate the stops of the ...
2k views

Performance Attribution : Annualizing alpha & factor return contributions

Let's say I have a factor model which I am using for Performance Attribution. I'd like to separate returns from alpha vs. returns from exposure to various risk factors. For each date, the factor ...
376 views

What is the case for active management?

A recent personal finance question asks when to hire an investment professional? Given that many of us here are on the professional manager side of the business, how would you make the case? What ...
156 views

How do you handle short-term asset allocation with Hedge-Funds?

Assuming I want to run an optimization over a short period, say 2 years, I would decide to take daily values in order to compute the efficient frontier of a portfolio. That works fine as long as I ...
939 views

Links to the risk model methodologies of the major providers?

There is quite a bit of art in constructing an equity risk model. This paper summarizes some of the key decisions: choice of factors, horizon matching, cross-sectional vs. time-series method, and ...
2k views

How to generate a random price series with a specified range and correlation with an actual price?

I want to generate a mock price series. I want it to be within a certain range and have a defined correlation with the original price series. If I choose, say, oil, I want as many time series which ...
230 views

zero-sum active management riddle

Bill Sharpe proves that the average alpha from active management is zero (and after transaction costs the average active manager returns less than passive funds). One active manager's gain is offset ...
1k views

How to detect structural breaks in variance?

I'm looking for a method to automatically detect structural breaks, I tried Chow test, It works good but it doens't work for breaks in variance. Do you know a test to check strucutural break in ...
313 views

Given markets usually fall fast and rise slowly, are there trading mechanisms to take advantage of this?

Per a previous question on this topic -- markets generally fall fast and rise slowly: what options strategies or other strategies can one use to take advantage of this common occurrence?
683 views

Do markets typically fall fast, and rise slowly

I'm wondering if there is some measurement or name to this notion, i.e.: Markets typically fall fast, but rise slowly. It seems like this is the case -- get some bad news out of Europe on the debt ...
410 views

3k views

Are there comprehensive analyses of theta decay in weekly options?

Are there comprehensive analyses of how much theta a weekly options loses in a day, per day? I know what the shape of theta decay looks like, in theory, where the decay towards zero happens more ...
373 views

What are good conditions to roll a leap further out in time?

If you're hedging with a back month / leap option, what are good underlying / market conditions to move this option out even further in time? For simplicity, let's say you own a call with 6 months ...
400 views

What's the difference between SA and SAAR?

I've only recently begun working in the quantitative finance field, and I've noticed that some time series I'm given are labeled "seasonally adjusted", and some labeled with "seasonally adjusted ...
238 views

Taking into account the correlation in Barrier options on a Basket

In a Barrier option (where the contract cancels when the underlying hits the barrier) I succesfully found the way to compute the probability of a single underlying touching the barrier (with constant ...
2k views

How to vet an intraday strategy

I am working on an intraday strategy using 5/10 minute bars. I am getting a decent return and sharpe on the strategy. But on close examination I see that I am making about 1 cent per trade (I haven't ...
2k views

How to compute the alpha decay of a strategy?

How can one compute the alpha decay of a systematic trading strategy?
503 views

Algorithms for predicting a couple points in the future

I'm familiar with supervised learning algorithms like regression and neural networks which look at a bunch of input points and learn a function which outputs a value (the value varying depending on ...
2k views

What is the replicating portfolio of swaptions for a constant maturity swap (CMS)?

How do you replicate the payoff of a constant maturity swap rate? That is, if the payoff of a contract pays the 5-year swap rate every year for 10 years, how would you replicate this payoff using ...
731 views

Convexity of BS Equation for Call and Put

I have a simple question. Is the Black-Scholes Formula convex with respect to Implied volatility parameter $\sigma$ (for calls or put) ? When I say Black-Scholes I mean for a call the following one ...
2k views

What books should any quantitative portfolio manager or risk manager have as reference? [closed]

I'm interested to know what are the critical reference texts you rely on for portfolio or risk management? I mean those texts that you come back to because they are chock full of insight and know-how. ...
580 views

How sensitive are vertical spreads to changes in implied volatility?

How sensitive are vertical spreads to changes in volatility / implied volatility in the money, at the money, and out of the money? I'm thinking for 1 point spreads this would be very small / neutral ...
2k views

Which algorithm should I look into to kick off my research in algorithmic trading? [closed]

I have recently undertaken a research into automated algorithmic trading algorithms. The aim of the research is to focus on studying algorithmic trading and trying to improve a basic implementation ...
112 views

single channel for multiple feeds of news? [closed]

I subscribe to various blogs and twitter feeds which I use to parse for keywords. Many times these subscriptions do not include topics which are of the primary concern. Are there multiplex channels ...
5k views

How GARCH/ARCH models are useful to check the volatility?

Below a R code wrote by the moderator @richardh (whom I want to thank again) about ARCH/GARCH models. ...
920 views

Any recommendations for textbooks for an undergraduate course in mathematical finance? [closed]

I'll teach an introductory course on mathematical finance in the near future. The course is intended to entertain and broaden some well-prepared advanced undergrad mathematics majors, some physics ...
25k views

How to check if a timeseries is stationary?

I'm using KPSS Method to check if the series is stationary, but I would also like to use another test to confirm if the series is stationary or not, what method coudl I use?
328 views

Testing a simple stock market trading hypothesis? [closed]

I have a simple stock market trading hypothesis ... Something along these lines: Based on a certain deviation from a stock market index over a 30-day period, 5 certain stocks tend to drift ...
450 views

When is it rational to exercise a bond option early?

Consider american options on interest rate futures such as the 10-year treasury note. When is early exercise optimal?
359 views

What changes to put-call parity are necessary when evaluating american options on non-dividend paying assets?

If an underlying doesn't pay dividends (for our purpose defined as any distribution to the underlying's holder) directly or indirectly (e.g. options on futures) how does put-call parity change from ...
4k views

What exactly is meant by “microstructure noise”?

I see that term tossed around a lot, in articles relating to HFT, and ultra high frequency data. It says at higher frequencies, smaller intervals, microstructure noise is very dominant. What is ...
317 views

What close price to assume for thinly traded stocks?

If a thinly traded stock has not traded for the last few days (volume=0), is it better to use the last known trade price (i.e. roll over last non-missing trade price) or use last known ...