1
vote
0answers
41 views

Distribution of AR and MA polynoms roots in ARMA/ARMA-GARCH models

I have another noob question. So, for example, I have ARMA(2,2) model: $$ x_{t} = \phi_{1}x_{t-1} + \phi_{2}x_{t-2} + e_{t} + \theta_{1} e_{t-1} + \theta_{2} e_{t-2}$$. So, I have 2 polynoms: $$1 - \...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

What is the difference between a three month return and a quarterly return?

I am looking at VGENX, and this product has first-quarter and three-month returns of 7.8% and 20.3%, respectively, according to zacks.com. I take it as the three month return is calculated taking into ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Using Put Volatilities to Estimate Firm Leverage/Credit Risk

This paper by Hull, Nelken and White uses implied volatilities in structural credit risk models to back out a market-implied leverage ratio. CreditGrades has a similar implementation using equity ...
1
vote
0answers
122 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
1
vote
0answers
13 views

How we can use adjusted price in combination with price limit in a stock market?

How we can use adjusted price in combination with price limit in stock market? suppose that we have a price limit in a stock market. For example if yesterday last price is ...
1
vote
0answers
38 views

Performance measure

Can anyone give some intuition behind the relative performance measure that is a percentile raking of trading activity. It indicates the percentage of total activity the investor outperformed the ...
1
vote
0answers
22 views

Methodologies behind shocking a composite index instrument, what assumption distinguishes these?

Suppose I have a composite index (rebalancing or non-rebalancing) that at present time has some base value $B_{\text{base}}$ in some base economy. I am in the process of shocking the economy on which ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

How can I discover dark pool orders in an order book?

I'm learning order flow. I would like to differentiate between aggregated dark pool volume and aggregated algo trading volume. Is there a way to tell orders coming from a dark pool from algo orders?
1
vote
0answers
127 views

Bloomberg Currency Exchange Rate Data (London and New York)

I'm new to Bloomberg terminals (a paper I'm reading uses data from a terminal - my first exposure) and I'm having trouble figuring out how to download a few different time series: (1) daily closing ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

Continous-time portfolio allocation optimization for a given consumption rate

I have the following PDE $0 = V_t - c(t)V_x - \lambda^2 V_x^2/V_{xx} + rxV_x + 1/2\lambda^2x^2V_{xx}$ where $t\mapsto c(t)$ is some given function and $r,\lambda$ are given constants. If necessary, ...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

Intraday return and volatility figures some sense check

Some questions about intraday returns and volatility figures. It is with the objective of sense checking. Firstly, for Security A, I am calculating the five minute interval return numbers over 29500 ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Making apriori Statements on VaR Backtests with a Garch Modelled VaR

so I want to find out, if its possible to find out for any backtest for the Value at Risk(Kupics POF or Christophersen's Markov Test), if it is possible to make apriori Statements on Testing results ( ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Find the PDE for a function that makes it a martingale

Given the SDE, find the PDE for the function $V(t,x)$ such that $V(t,S_t)$ is a martingale. $dS_t = \kappa(m - S_t)dt + \sigma\sqrt{S_t}dB_t$ where $\kappa$,$m$, and $\sigma$ are constants. ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Price compounding: Swap versus Governments Bonds

There are different rates curve to compound prices. Since the crisis, regulators tends to favor price compounding with swap curves over IR curves deduced from governments bonds (EU regulators, french ...
1
vote
0answers
15 views

Why use Moody's KMV EDF for one year

If I were to use Moody's KMV proprietary database with expected default frequqncies(EDF) for sectors and countries, along with aggregations for financials and non-financials, significant banks etc: ...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

Multi-factor APT model in practice: non-zero mean factors, observations needed and portfolios

I'm going to build a multi-factor APT model for the Swiss market starting from the work made by Chen, Roll and Ross (to which I will add and test some additional factors). I have some doubts though: ...
1
vote
0answers
6 views

What are appropriate algorithms for forecasting contract schedules to maximize profit?

Imagine a situation where a business negotiates contracts for the maintenance of widgets it sells. Situation Customer buys 20 widgets. Customer negotiates contract for widgets to be serviced/...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

How to calculate the unrealised profit on sinkable bond

How is calculate the unrealised profit on Sinkable Bond when 50% of the bond value already been paid? Is the following method correct: Unrealised P&L = ((Current.Position * Market.Price) - Cost....
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Marchenko–Pastur, Student distribution and returns

I have a question regarding random matrix theory. I've been studying various papers and I found some confusing definitions of Marchenko-Pastur law. The most clear was the one on wiki: wiki-Pastur-...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

Valuation Models for Bank Credit Default

What approaches exist for calculating a fair price for a credit default swap for a bank? Most of the traditional valuation models are geared towards industrial firms. Are there any theoretical ...
1
vote
0answers
31 views

How to schedule a sequence number reset in QuickFIX?

What is the recommended way to handle scheduled sequence number resets (initiated by the counterparty once per day) ?
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
1
vote
0answers
53 views

Binary American Call Option (Cash or Nothing)

Suppose we have a stock with current price $S(0)=X$ and the interest rate is zero. When the stock reaches level $\$ H$ for the first time ($H>X$), the option can be exercised and its payoff is $\$ ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

What is a good statistical test on stock prices to indicate a company's value has changed?

My current test is to take monthly proportional price changes for stock XYZ and subtract out the proportional changes of the S&P500. Then compare the mean of a sample of XYZ-S&P (e.g. trailing ...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

Issue on pricing bond using RQuantLib

trying to pricing a simple bond using RQuantLib, but cannot get the right values. For example, consider a bond with 2% annual coupon rate and flat interest rate of 3%, a 5 year maturity, and \$100 ...
1
vote
0answers
40 views

Pricing function $P(S,t)$ is convex in $S$ for all $t$

I am now reading Alternative Characterization of American Put Options by Carr et all (available at http://www.math.nyu.edu/research/carrp/papers/pdf/amerput7.pdf). There is a theorem called 'Main ...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

Bootstrapping p values in linear regression in R

Can someone help me with a code how to bootstrap p values in R using Boot or boot package? regCSS30 <- dyn$lm(lag(eval(parse(text="HV")),-30) ~ lag((eval(parse(text="CSS30"))),0), data=window(...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

How do most arbitrage opportunities account for unknown volume at a ticker price?

So, from a conceptual level, arbitrage seems quite forward... buy at one place at one price, and sell somewhere at a higher price. However, after doing some initial digging it appears to be not quite ...
1
vote
0answers
51 views

Las vegas method?

In one of his winning paper, backward induction for future values, A. Antonov, quant of the year 2016, refer to the American Monte-Carlo method as the Las Vegas method. Is this name used appart from ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

What I find if I bootstrap a binary logistic regression?

I want to describe the direction of some stock returns, using as predictors several independent variables which are uncorrelated. The relation in which I am interested is between the stock returns and ...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

Does the FF 3-Factor model work with unadjusted prices?

I am trying to investigate some trading strategies based on the Fama French 3-factor model, for which I assumed I need to use adjusted prices to account for dividends and splits. However, my ...
1
vote
0answers
25 views

Embedding the naive portfolio into economic decision theory

I am trying to gain some insights about the vast literature of portfolio optimization and I hope to get some help when it comes to embed the most standard allocation strategies into a coherent ...
1
vote
0answers
65 views

To calculate shift in the shifted lognormal model

I tried to calculate the shift for CHF interest rates (tenors with negative rates) using MLE, but as the shift is increased the MLE value increases(or decreases depending on whether positive or ...
1
vote
0answers
50 views

Euler discretization bias, heston model

I am performing option pricing using Heston model and Euler discretization. I'm getting the following result: ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Inverse Smile Volatility Ibex35

I was analysing ibex implied volatility and when I draw it I found it was reversed: X axis are the strikes and Y axis implied volatilities calculated by BS. The blue line is the spot price. Data (...
1
vote
0answers
18 views

how to specify given model on Eviews?

I am still struggling to estimate my model on Eviews. I know it should be really simplistic to do it,but without in depth Eviews knowledge it can be rather tricky. For instance, looking at the ...
1
vote
0answers
59 views

Higher moments arbitrage

Is there concrete evidence that statistical arbitrage (historical vs. implied) on higher moments, specifically skewness and kurtosis, can be (significantly) done? Working from this source, the author ...
1
vote
0answers
58 views

Computing Overall Return for A Single Asset Given Inflows & Outflows

I am creating a portfolio tracking model in Excel and have run into difficulty on how to track the overall performance of a single asset, given that over time more and less capital (shares) has been ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Effect of surprise dividends on options

The ETF in question is VDC It pays about $2.5 a year in dividends, but the payout dates are very erratic If I were to go long VDC with options, what would be the best way of doing this to avoid ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

Feedback on Video Metadata Extraction

I've developed/patented a metadata extraction methodology, which we've used to build a variety of alternative datasets for funds. One of the more difficult issues in this field, is getting useful ...
1
vote
0answers
53 views

How to choose the stock exchange to trade a stock?

Let's take an example : Hewlett Packard. The company is listed on both Nasdaq and Nyse. Correct me if I am wrong but as we can trade it on 2 different stock exchanges the price of the stock may ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

Is this a GARCH Monte-Carlo simulation?

I tried this as a simulation for a GARCH(1,1) model. Is it correct? (I'm not speaking about the code itself, which works, but the underlying idea). Here is plot (of ...
1
vote
0answers
63 views

How to calculate cumulative returns with one lag in R

I have a huge data frame with over 1000 column, which are companies(column headers) and in each column I have their estimated return(monthly). The sample period of the data frame in 11 years. I want ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

How to perofrm a simple GARCH simulation example?

How is it possible to simulate one million of tick data for, say EUR-USD price, using a GARCH model? For example, how do I simulate $X_i$ for $i = 1 \dots 1000000$, with $\text{mean}(X)=X_0 \...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Considerations when programming back testing engine

I am at the beginning of writing a back testing engine and wanted to get some Feed back on considerations I should take into account , design ideas etc.
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Quantlib binomial tree

I was trying to price options with the extendedBinomialTree class of quantlib. I actually tried at some point to modify this class in order to optimize it. Normally the drift and diffusion of the ...
1
vote
0answers
40 views

Vol surface changes as underlying moves

We market make in highly liquid, near term options markets. I want to build a risk report that tells us how our portfolio's greeks will change as the underlying moves. This is for risk management in ...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

Problem with overlapping data when testing futures market efficiency

In my case non-overlapping data would represent the scenario where futures prices (3 months) do not correspond to the futures spot prices in terms of delivery date. For example, futures settlement ...
1
vote
0answers
29 views

Under which conditions the minimum variance portfolio involves no short selling?

If $\rho_{12} < 1$ or $\sigma_1 \not= \sigma_2$ then $\sigma_v^2$ representing the variance of the portfolio with weights $(w_1, w_2) = (s, 1-s)$ as a function of $s$ attains its minimum value at: ...

15 30 50 per page