All Questions

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predict next day's close price using hmm

I am reading this paper(Stock market forecasting using hidden Markov model: a new approach) and get confused about how they predict the next day's close price. Below is what the authors say about how ...
26 views

Calculate Forward Rate under CIP - differs from qouted rates, why?

Hello everyone out there, I am quite new here, but hope you are helping me out, nevertheless. By assuming that we have CIP I want to calculate the 3M Forward rate for EURUSD. I use the known formula ...
43 views

where can I get the intraday data for S&P 500

I am trying to analysis the price of S&P 500 during the flash crash in 2010. Where can I get the data?
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NZX market depth data

Can someone point into the right direction for NZX market depth data specifically for individuals? I have tried many vendors but seem to be coming up with "institution-only" responses.
21 views

coefficient of determination of an autocorrelation

Ok this is a very quick question, the Coefficient of Determination (power(R;2)) of a simple Pearson Correlation value (r) can be interpreted as the percentage of the total variation in Y that can be ...
17 views

Overstating Interest Rates?

I'm fact checking my analysis, so there's only one possible answer in that I'm either right or way out in left field (wrong). A friend of mine mentioned this bitcoin lending site and I looked at it ...
27 views

Poor investment preformance in early years impacting on final fund value

I am currently doing some work on the performance of funds across different models of the economy. I am trying to find some work that looks at the impact of poor/lower returns at the early years of ...
37 views

Is there a limit to the number of Spot rates than can be calculated from Par Yields

I am just trying to calculate Spot Rates from Par yields. I find that the code below gives very similar spot rates for the data here, yet if I increase the size of the ...
29 views

Is there a considered floor for variation the 1st principal component must explain?

I am wondering if there is a considered floor to the percentage variation the 1st principal component must explain in general for PCA - ie. any lower and it is not worth doing PCA at all? Is the floor ...
23 views

Influencing factors on credit

There was the following question on an exam: Which factors are influencing the effective interest rate of a credit? loan amount fees interest rate running time I would have said ...
43 views

Estimate volatility in forecast

I have a model with a rolling forecast. In each time step $t$, I predict the price for the next periods, e.g. $\hat{p}(t, t+1)$ and $\hat{p}(t, t+2)$. If I start in $t=0$ and arrive at $t=2$, I ...
29 views

calibration of Gaussian two factor short rate model

I am trying to calibrate the gaussian two factor short rate model whose dynamics is given by r(t)=x(t)+y(t)+phi(t) Now to calibrate the model to term structure ...
29 views

Merton Jump Diffusion Model: Influence of lambda

I use Monte Carlo to simulate sample paths of Merton's jump diffusin model. By plotting a histogram of the log returns and using kerneldensity to approximate the density function I try to look at the ...
42 views

How difficult/easy it is to migrate from CME FAST to CME MDP3.0?

Has anyone gone through this migration? Just wanted to have an idea of the amount of effort required.
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Leveraged ETFs Holding Period; Compare LETF with DITM

Why the "standard recommendation" is that LETFs are only for short periods (< 1 day) while their performance charts indicate that the leveraging is retained once the period EXCEEDs several days? ...
34 views

How does a stop loss affect the P/L of a trader

In his book 'Dynamic Hedging', Nassim Taleb writes: Problem: A trader is given a stop loss of 100,000 in any given month (he would have to close his books and go home until the end of the month). ...
27 views

johansen cointegration test eviews interpreation

I am not sure whether i am interpreting the cointegration test correct. This is the test result : Because of the probability of the test i understand that my series are cointegrated of order 2. ...
37 views

How do you calculate the asset drift rate in the Merton model? (used in N(-d2))

Can I replace it with the internal rentability rate? I only have the financial statements and some market data, but I can't find the expected returns anywhere. The goal is to calculate the probability ...
38 views

Compare performance buy-and-hold strategies after stock-split

QUESTION: How should I analyze the statistical significance of the difference between two buy-and-hold strategies (or the relative performance) when the samples are not independent? Background: I ...
52 views

Can Yahoo Finance API work for non-US markets?

I am trying to fetch ticker prices and historical prices for major Asian exchanges (HKSE, SGX etc). I am trying to use yahoo finance API, but it is not returning any data for even SingTel, which is a ...
55 views

After finding the pair, what next?

Had a question on how do I go about doing pairs trading. I have found some cointegrated stocks. Now the question is what next. From what I understand if two pairs are cointegrated, the distance ...
35 views

Use of implied vol averages for expected underlying returns

When computing a single implied volatility value for a particular asset for use in cross sectional regression models, using daily end of day data. There are a few methodologies I've seen to used do ...