4
votes
1answer
71 views

Is there an error in this problem on pricing an asset using the true probability of an up move?

I'm self-studying for an actuarial exam and I encountered the following problem: The true probability of an up move, $p$, must satisfy: $$p = \frac{e^{{(\alpha - \delta})h} - d}{u - d},$$ where $\...
3
votes
2answers
187 views

Risk-Neutral Probabilities, Trinomial Model

My professor has many grammatical mistakes and errors in his questions, so apologies ahead of time. I am just trying to understand what he wants for this question, In trinomial model, let $S_0 = 1$, ...
0
votes
1answer
69 views

Stock valuation/stock pitch and CAPM

If you were valuing a stock (say to pitch a stock for the buy side), you are looking for stocks that the market has mispriced. Your aim is to have a profitable long or short strategy. Can you use the ...
1
vote
1answer
60 views

Faster way to backtest/Walkforward

I am currently using Ninja Trader to program and test my strategies and the forward testing in very time intensive. I am thinking of writing my own code in either c++ or c#. The question I have is ...
0
votes
0answers
52 views

Delta of an option in two cases

Let C be the prime of a call in fi=unction of the price in term F, Strike K, volatilité $\sigma$ and maturity t: $C(F,K,\sigma,t,r) $ We assume that we know $\delta$ $\delta=\frac{\partial}{\...
1
vote
1answer
102 views

How to determine volatility for private company for Black-Scholes

I am trying to determine the volatility to use Black-Scholes to value some warrants for a private company. Very few comps are public or they are large diversified businesses. Any thoughts on how to ...
0
votes
0answers
45 views

Correlate the G2++ with a GBM model

In Matlab one can use the LinearGaussian2F function together with the simTermStructs function to create a simulated zero curve based on the G2++ model. Next to simulating the interest rates I need to ...
3
votes
2answers
263 views

Dollar-Neutral Strategy

Here is an excerpt from E. Chan's book Quantitative Trading, However, if the strategy is a long-short dollar-neutral strategy (i.e., the portfolio holds long and short positions with equal ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

White's reality check p-value

I am running a hypothesis test based on White's reality check p-value. I am getting a weird result for my univariate time series of returns. In essence, I am following a code on MATlab to run the test ...
0
votes
1answer
103 views

Metastock end of day data to Python

I'm thinking of getting End of Day stock prices from Metastock, but was wondering if it would be possible to have Python to automatically extract the stock prices and store it in a SQL. Would that be ...
2
votes
3answers
99 views

demonstrate that a Square-root process is Non-central Chi-squared distributed

how can i prove that the value at some future time $t'$, $x_{t'}$, of the Square-root process at current time $t$, $x_t$, is Chi-squared distributed? $dx_t = k(\theta - x_t)dt + \beta \sqrt{x_t}dz_t$ ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Properties of optimization under shortfall constraints in R

Properties of optimization under shortfall constraints in R. Hi, I'm having trouble optimizing a portfolio for a school project, which has been bothering me for a week. What I want to do is to ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

Is the value of fixed swap leg independent of X, where the Floating Rate is say, LIBOR minus X%?

In my texts of swap valuation, the fixed leg is decided by calculating the following equation, say for a swap agreement where: Fixed Leg : $s(1)=s(t)$ Floating Leg : 1 year LIBOR - 25bps Term = 2 ...
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Reference Request: Portfolio Optimization Conditional on downside threshold

Under a standard portfolio optimization framework we have some idea of a predictive return distribution $r_{t+1}$ and a Utility function $U(r)$, in the best case in a 'nice' form (differentiable etc.)....
0
votes
1answer
36 views

How were the probabilities of recession over the next four quarters calculated in this table?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/goldman-sachs-says-defy-mr-market-as-recession-risk-still-low The probability of a slump in the U.S. is just 18 percent and 23 percent over ...
0
votes
0answers
47 views

Market with exponentially distributed random variable

Consider a market consisting of a stock with $S_0^1=1$ and $\log(S_1^1)=Z$, where $Z$ is an exponentially distributed random variable. $S_0^1$ denoted the prices of the stock $1$ at time $t=0$ and ...
1
vote
1answer
52 views

What is the formula for variance in estimating exchange rate?

I was watching this Youtube Video. He used a exchange rates of Euro to Dollar for a few days and apply GARCH(1,1) to get the predicted price. However, I didnt understand variance that he calculates ...
3
votes
2answers
180 views

Ito Formula for Stochastic Integral

Suppose I have $$dS_t = \mu(S_t,t) dt + \sigma(S_t,t)dW_t$$ What would be the process satisfying the following process of $y_t$? $$y_t = \int_0^t S_u du + \int_0^t S_u dW_u$$ I'm not quite sure ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

Are there good off-the-shelf coding implementation of trade classification algorithms?

Including Lee Ready and bulk classification methods, as well as any other method. To be clear, I'm asking for code, not just a description of the algorithm.
1
vote
1answer
49 views

method/technique for finding arbitrage

I was able to solve this problem and find the arbitrage but only after spending a long time on it and trying out different possibilites, is there a method or technique that can help me find the ...
2
votes
3answers
113 views

What is the theoretical expected growth in an option's value over a given period of time?

Say an option with five years left before maturity has a value of $x$ today. Theoretically, under the B/S framework, what is its expected value in five years (upon maturity)? Do we assume it will ...
3
votes
1answer
90 views

dynamic Markowitz portfolio

Let's take 4 assets, whose values are known during a period of time of 2 years. Then I calculate the expected returns for each of these 4 assets thanks to these 2 years - historical data. I deduce the ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Range accruals - distribution of $n/m$

Say we are pricing a range accrual that pays $4\% * n/m$, where $n =$ # days in the period where libor $>3\%$, and $m =$ total # days in the period. Assume that we have a flat forward curve at $3\%$...
0
votes
0answers
51 views

Delta hedge compound option

Delta hedge portfolio should be adjusted from one period to the other, as the ratio changes. How does it work with compound options though? Suppose, I have a put on a call option on a stock, in 2 time ...
5
votes
1answer
56 views

Equivalency of FX forwards and FX fixed for fixed swaps? Are they still the same under multiple curves environment?

I am encountering two approaches for valuation of FX swaps (fixed for fixed, e.g. fixed USD payments for fixed EUR payments) which seem to result into different values although in theory they should ...
1
vote
3answers
146 views

Appropriate measure of risk if return are not normally distributed

Normally standard deviation of an assets is used as an proxy for the risk in the financial market. In reality distribution of return is more peaked at the center and higher mass in the tail as ...
0
votes
0answers
29 views

Is order flow imbalance more or less correlated with price movements at slower frequency?

Suppose I define order flow imbalance as volume(aggress buy)/volume(aggress sell), or some variant of that. Is this variable more, or less, correlated with price movements when I sample less ...
4
votes
1answer
37 views

Analytical Bond Price under Rendlemen-Bartter?

Assuming the short rate $r_t$ follows the risk-neutral (so $W_t$ is a $Q$-Brownian motion) process $$ dr_t = ar_t dt + \sigma r_t dW_t, $$ does anyone know of an analytical bond price formula? We ...
0
votes
1answer
69 views

Why QuantLib assumes zero rates to discount factor is continuous?

https://github.com/lballabio/QuantLib/blob/0ec43027834220baf0a554d68de79a159a2c5489/ql/termstructures/yield/zeroyieldstructure.hpp ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

Is an FX forward with delayed settlement still a derivative?

As an example: Trade date: 1/1/16 Maturity date: 2/29/16 Settlement (exchange of currencies) 3/31/16 Is the instrument between 2/29 and 3/31 still deemed a forward? The forward rate is determined so ...
0
votes
1answer
84 views

Bank discount yield and money market yield

I have a question regarding Bank Discount Yield and Money Market Yield for US TBill. Some books mentioned that ...
0
votes
1answer
29 views

Binomial Model, Number of nodes from $t = 0$ to $t = n$

How many paths are there in a binomial model from time $t = 0$ to time $t = n$? How many nodes (states) are there? Intutively it seems that there are $2^n$ paths and $2n - 1$ nodes. But I am not sure ...
3
votes
2answers
92 views

Difference in implied volatility calculation

I've been using vollib to calculate IV, but my answers have been different by tenths from other sources like NASDAQ and Yahoo. The answers range +- 0.5, sometimes even more. The inputs are: $S$ (...
1
vote
1answer
132 views

Which studies should be replicated?

In psychology voting on which studies should be replicated is established on a website. For economics, including financial economics, the ReplicationWiki (that I founded) offers a voting option but it ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Are there alternatives to the Box-Tiao decomposition in identifying mean reverting portfolios?

As documented in this paper, Box-Tiao decomposition (a way to decompose multiple time series into components with different speeds of mean reversion) can be used to identify mean reverting portfolios. ...
1
vote
0answers
172 views

Historical volatility on bloomberg API

Is there a way to obtain the historical volatility of a stock from the bloomberg API? I would be looking for the data in the HVT table. Actually 3-months historical volatility from now would be enough....
0
votes
0answers
38 views

Intraday or overnight returns?

While calculating insider abnormal returns, closing prices of securities are generally used. We take the actual ex post return of the security i on time t, minus the expected normal return for the ...
1
vote
1answer
140 views

How necessary is real analysis and complex analysis for trading at hedge fund levels?

As the title states, I am basically wanting to know the applications of real/complex analysis in finance. How important are such high levels of math ? I can obviously see how things such as ...
0
votes
0answers
51 views

Rblpapi millisecond resolution

I'm using Rblapi to get tick data, using the nice getTicks function. Much to my dismay the index is rounded to the second, while milliseconds time stamp could be provided. Tried returnsAs xts, fts(?) ...
0
votes
3answers
195 views

Where can I find best end of day option data? [duplicate]

Looking for accurate end of day option data. Preferably with Greeks. Any recommendations?
0
votes
2answers
51 views

Where can I find free single-day charts for the S&P 500?

I'm trying to find free historical charts of the S&P 500. I don't need the raw data, I just need to access a simple chart showing the movement of the index over the course of the day (for an ...
3
votes
1answer
88 views

Approximation of an option price

The value of an option in the money is 11.50 Euros. The parameters of the market are: -The price of the underlying stock: 81.4 Euros. -The volatility ofthe underlying is : 34.65 % The ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Data on interest rate differentials (lending on own vs. foreign currency)

I'm looking for data on (inner country) interest rate differentials between lending in own and foreign currency. Is there any data publicly available? If yes, where? If not, which non-free sources are ...
0
votes
1answer
75 views

Strategies on steepen yield curve

Believe that the yield curve is going to steepen very soon. It may be fall in short-term rates, a rise in long-term rates, or some combination of these. What strategy should we pursue in the bond ...
0
votes
0answers
21 views

How would MTM an interest only currency swap affect its valuation?

Not sure how a central clearing house that marks an interest only currency swap between two parties to market everyday would effect the currency swap's price. Any ideas?
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Transaction costs estimate for investment strategy

I'm examining a strategy based on profitability. I sort UK stock into 10 portfolios based on their gross profits-to-total assets ratio. Then, I create long-short portfolios by subtracting the high ...
3
votes
1answer
82 views

Information on Weather Derivatives

I am looking for relevant information on the organization of the Weather Derivatives market. How is it organized? How information is shared? Where can we find historical database? I am aware of the ...
4
votes
1answer
147 views

Libor Market Model Calibration

Currently I am doing a research on the plain vanilla multi-curve framework Libor Market Model meaning that no stochastic volatility is involved. I had the idea to calibrate to the swaption market. In ...
1
vote
2answers
207 views
0
votes
1answer
112 views

RiskMetrics VaR Volatility Sample Size

RiskMetrics calculates volatility using an exponentially weighted moving average. For a decay factor of 0.94, they advise a sample size of 74 past returns. Does this mean the entire calculation should ...

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