2
votes
2answers
235 views

Ito calculus problem

given $S^1$ satifying the SDE $\quad dS_{t}^{1}=S_{t}^{1}((r+\mu)dt + \sigma dW_t), \quad S_{0}^{1}=1 $ and the safe asset $S_{t}^{0}$ $\quad S_{t}^{0}:=e^{rt} \quad for \quad r\geq 0$ Q1. how ...
0
votes
1answer
62 views

adding dummy variable to ts object in r for particular quarter

I've looked all over and can't seem to get a clear idea of how to do this; I have ts data with quarterly frequencies. I simply want to add a dummy variable only for the data corresponding to Q4 but I ...
0
votes
2answers
132 views

Stock Symbols: ETFs vs Real Companies

I built a trading strategy that is based on a pool of all the symbols available on NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX. I don't like the idea of trading symbols that are ETFs. For example, the symbol TVIX, which ...
-1
votes
1answer
21 views

Technical indicator MACD - Does the D stands for the Math divergence? [closed]

Does the divergence from MACD is the same well known from Math? What is the connection? Thanks,
2
votes
1answer
101 views

Simulating returns from ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model

I want to obtain a simulation of one-step ahead forecasts of stock returns process governed by ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process. The returns are of form: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + \sigma_t z_t$ From ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views

Could VVIX and HYspread combined make for a SPX trade signal?

assumption 1: if there is no excess liquidity, then prices of equities cannot rise assumption 2: if there is "sufficient" excess liquidity, then whether prices of equities rise, stay put, fall depends ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Silvio Gesell's theory of value of money can it work?

Silvio Gesell was an economist. The scope of science of economy is the value of money. His theory is basically there is one source of money and one sink, source and sink is the same. Thus the value of ...
0
votes
0answers
44 views

Macroeconomic forecasting

During the last year I was working on developing several forecasting models which I was checking mainly in energy markets. They are based on regression, autocorrelation and also machine learning ...
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Single better parameter to explain ETF's comparison graph: Sharpe or IR?

For single comparison graph depicting price over time: SPY VS US some Sector ETF VS Momentum ETF on that sector, What would be the best single param to put? Sharpe ratio of each Information ratio ...
3
votes
1answer
103 views

How to implement dummy variables into GARCH(1,1) model from structural breaks (ICSS)

Hello everybody, I was already searching a lot of forums and read a huge amount of different papers. But I guess I am to stupid or I am at a loss. Hopefully some of you are able to help me out. Here ...
1
vote
1answer
43 views

Bid and Ask Data for european stocks

I am working on something to analyze European stocks and I need some historical data on bid and ask prices. Ideally I would like something like CRSP database for US stocks. Is there some similar ...
1
vote
1answer
82 views

Fx Firm market making

I've been doing market making on forex using the last look feature so far. Now we are moving to do on firm making, but I'm kind of lost. To do firm making we need to post resting orders (currenex ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

Change in portfolio when IPO announced

I'm wondering whether there would be a change to my answer of the change in portfolio when there is a new stock introduced. My investment strategy is to maximise expected return such that my standard ...
4
votes
1answer
94 views

Calculate mean variance portfolio

I am trying to calculate the mean variance portfolio using the plug-in approach. First I generate some artificial data: x <- replicate(10,rnorm(1000)) Then I ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

How to form Decile Portfolios based on Liquidity measure with missing data in R

I have a dataframe with over 4000 companies data (as column) and have calculted their daily Quoted spread measure ( measures liquidity for each stock) for 15 years. And then from the daily have ...
0
votes
0answers
41 views

Observing bid-ask bounce in high frequency stock data

I have a series of 1-minute return data for an unnamed stock, a sample is provided below, in order: ...
-1
votes
1answer
73 views

Why does the Sharpe ratio not change when the strategy is leveraged?

It has been correctly stated that the Sharpe ratio of a strategy does not change when it is leveraged. I understand Eric's point that leveraging by $n$ multiplies both the return $x$ and volatility ...
2
votes
1answer
75 views

Option analysis

Assume zero dividend and that the strike price for a European call option on a stock at a fixed maturity T and strike price K is given by C(K).Suppose that $C(K)=e^{-k}$ for all $K\geq 0$ ,then, I ...
7
votes
7answers
750 views

Proof that no trading system always wins

I am pondering on the existence/impossibility of a trading system (or algorithm) that ALWAYS ends up winning money, no matter how the price of a futures moves. In a context where one can go long or ...
0
votes
2answers
87 views

Volatility of EUR/USD: is this correct?

Let x be the closeBid price of EUR/USD, sampled every 5 minutes during year 2015 (historical data). This is the variation (is it ...
3
votes
6answers
215 views

Intuitively speaking, why do at the money options have no volga/convexity?

I was wondering if someone could give me an intuitive explanation as to why the vega of at the money options doesn't increase with volatility. I've seen some mathematical explanations showing the ...
5
votes
2answers
98 views

Calculating probability of Yuan's slump from options market

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/if-options-traders-are-right-the-yuan-s-slump-is-far-from-over Contract prices indicate a 79 percent probability that the currency will weaken ...
1
vote
2answers
257 views

Barrier option : Monte carlo simulation

I am trying to price a Down-and-Out Call using Monte Carlo simulation. The problem is that I get the right price for the vanilla option (same price as the analytic formula of Black and Scholes) but I ...
1
vote
1answer
111 views

Calculate VaR for a liabilty taking a exponential distribution?

An insurance company faces the liability loss off $L = \begin{cases} 0, & \mbox{with probability } 0.75 \\ Z, & \mbox{with probability } 0.25\end{cases}$ where $Z\sim Exp(\mu)$. I want to ...
1
vote
0answers
39 views

Avellaneda/Cont model Order Book Model

The model given in the following paper by Avellaneda et al http://people.stern.nyu.edu/jreed/Papers/limitorder.pdf On page 7 he explains that the initial Bid and Ask size should be normalised by ...
8
votes
3answers
336 views

Why is there a stong intraday-correlation between spot and vol?

Fig.1 shows an intraday scatterplot of the DAX future against its volatility index VDAX on 6-Jan-2016. The data suggest a strong negative correlation between the two. There are various models ...
2
votes
1answer
62 views

Estimating volatility from high frequency price volume data of multiple stocks

I have price volume data of five stocks, sampled at 1 minute interval for six months. The data is quite noisy, lots of missing data and also some weired spikes. Can someone suggest me how to clean ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

Mean reversion in seasonal ARIMA model

Hi I'm looking for some help deriving the half life from an ARIMA model. My current best model candidate is (1,1,0)x(1,0,0)[4] and I'm a little confused on this. I've read up on HL for AR(1) models ...
1
vote
1answer
100 views

Books on financial instruments?

Can you please tell me some good books to learn in detail about all financial instruments available in the market today ?
2
votes
3answers
71 views

Calculating Portfolio Returns Across Sectors

I have a table of asset (mutual fund) returns and the percentage that each asset is in a particular stock sector: ...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

Black Scholes Geometric Brownian Motion Option Pricing

I'm doing a past paper for one of my masters modules and I'm stuck on this and I have no idea how to tackle such a thing. It's worth 30% of the exam so would be great if anyone here has any ...
0
votes
0answers
65 views

Asset allocation and GARCH models

I am trying to solve an asset allocation problem and I am having some troubles grasping the concept. I am working with excess returns on 4 stock indices and I am obtaining the excess returns forecasts ...
8
votes
2answers
199 views

Why aren't the Fama-French 3 factors orthogonal to each other?

I am confused whether the factors in a multi-factor model should be orthogonal or not. Google searches do not give a well documented answer and I couldn't find one in our library's limited catalog ...
3
votes
1answer
51 views

Valuation of option on amortized IR swap

I'm currently valuing swaptions using an implied volatility surface and Black's formula. This formula is given by $$A (S\Phi(d_+) - K \Phi(d_-))$$ where $$ d_{\pm} = \frac{\log\left(S/K\right) \pm ...
5
votes
1answer
174 views

Which Algorithmic trading library would you recommend for trading Bitcoin?

I am starting to do Algorithmic trading in cryptocurrencies using Python libraries. Most exchanges have RESTful API that make it easy to write you own code and get started. However, I would like to ...
3
votes
1answer
102 views

VAR of portfolio containing options, equities and forwards

If we want to calculate VAR of a portfolio using variance covariance matrix (delta normal method), containing equities, forwards and options, how do we treat each asset class for making the variance ...
3
votes
0answers
65 views

Duality of callable bond price

I am trying to understand the relationship between two methods of pricing callable bonds in the risk-neutral pricing framework. Problem statement Let's consider zero-coupon bond with face value 1, ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Extracting mean reversion and incorporating into formula for general series

I'm looking to derive a general formula for margin reversion like Hussman has done in this article for some projections I'm doing. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100802.htm I'm not interested in ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

How to compare Sharpe Ratios of different investment strategies (holding periods)

I am doing the momentum analysis and am trying to see, what strategy (based on trading frequency) yields the highest Sharpe ratio for different investment amounts. The trading frequencies I use are ...
4
votes
2answers
126 views

Geometric Brownian Motion - increasing simulations or smaller step size

I am running Monte Carlo simulations to estimate future share prices of some stocks. For stock A, I need 1 share price exactly one year from now. For stock B, I need daily prices for each trading ...
1
vote
1answer
64 views

AmericanOptionImpliedVolatility strange answers for calls IV's

My data provider includes the greeks. I tried to compute the IV's myself using RQuantLib and see if they match -- for Puts it's generally close, for Calls however certain values are way way off -- any ...
1
vote
1answer
99 views

Option Chain Implied Volatility Calculation

I have the following EOD options data for the SPY containing IV data for each strike. ...
2
votes
2answers
76 views

Problem with deriving the dynamics of a process

I'm trying to solve the following problem. Given a process $X_t$ and a process $Z_t$, with the dynamics of $X_t$ as $$ dX_t = (\alpha + \beta X_t)dt + (\gamma + \sigma X_t)dW_t $$ and $Z_t$ defined ...
1
vote
1answer
115 views

Geometric Brownian Motion: d(S) vs. d(ln(S))

I am quoting from "Tools for Computational Finance, 5th Edition" [Seydel]. I wonder whether the histogram of simulations of the first (yellow) SDE makes sense... especially given that Seydel ...
0
votes
1answer
175 views

AmericanOptionImpliedVolatility - root not bracketed issue in QuantLib/R

I'm trying to compute an implied volatility -- I am trying to match real data I see in Yahoo finance which shows an IV of about 27%. My call in 'R' for the same params returns a root not bracketed ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Simulated bond index returns based on term structure changes

The J.P. Morgan European Monetary Union Index (EMU) 5-7Y (which is rebalanced monthly) currently (1-Jan-16) has the following characteristics: ...
0
votes
0answers
77 views

Forecasting conditional variance using fGARCH

I am forecasting the conditional standard deviation using ARMA(1,0)-GJRGARCH(1,1) in R using the fGarch package. Here is a sample code: ...
0
votes
0answers
31 views

Portfolio Analytic Metrics for Portfolios with Serially Correlated Returns

I just read Andrew Lo's paper from 2002 "The Statistics of Sharpe Ratios" and am wondering if anyone knows of any other papers/docs/resources that explore the impact of serially correlated returns on ...
1
vote
1answer
245 views

How to answer this interview programming question about drawdowns?

I saw this question as an interview, and to be honest, I have no idea what it's even asking for: Write a function (in R or Python) that finds the stock drawdown which will trigger a rebalance, ...
3
votes
4answers
207 views

What are the canonical global-macro investing books?

What is a good reading list for Global Macro investing? What does Bridgewater, Bervan Howard, Soros, AQR etc. use to teach their staff about macroeconomic investing? Let us assume a top-class ...

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