2
votes
0answers
63 views

Is Geometric Brownian Model suitable for long term price forecast?

I was thinking of using Geometric Brownian Motion to forecast future prices of timber (say one variable, the stumpage price of sawtimber). I tested the time series with Augmented Dickey-Fuller test ...
0
votes
0answers
81 views

How to calculate probability of option expiring in the money?

Given the following values ...
3
votes
1answer
93 views

How to prove the “Law of one price” theorem?

There are two subparts to Fundamental Asset Pricing theorem. The Law Of One Price (LOOP thereafter) holds if and only if there exists a state price vector. In a market in which the LOOP holds, the ...
2
votes
2answers
307 views

Why gamma and theta have opposite signs?

I saw some textbooks use B-S equation to explain why gamma and theta have opposite signs in most of the cases. For example, John Hull's classic book. The explanation is, first write B-S equation in ...
1
vote
1answer
56 views

The importance of good optimizers in Portfolio Optimization

I work as a Quant for an Asset Management and Insurance company and have recently enrolled for Masters degree in Computer Science. I am thinking about investigating how important having a "good" ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Historical data for Canadian exchanges and mutual funds

There are scores of posts on obtaining historical data for many of the big exchanges, but for some reason there is a gap in sourcing historical data for Canadian exchanges. Short of Yahoo Finance and ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

How to estimate constrained a constrained VAR(1) with MATLAB?

Suppose I want to estimate the following VAR(1) model: $$ Y_t = \mu + \Phi Y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t $$ where $Y_t=(y_{1t}, y_{2t},…,y_{kt})'$, $\mu=(\mu_1,…,\mu_{k})’$ and $\Phi$ a matrix of ...
2
votes
1answer
113 views

Estimating mean reversion

I've read in some places that mean reversion parameters for a rates model, eg Hull White, can be estimated directly from the current yield curve. However I've not been able to find anything more on ...
1
vote
1answer
64 views

How can I forecast future correlation?

There are some standard models for forecasting volatility (e.g., GARCH) and for forecasting returns (e.g., factor models). What kind of standard models exist for forecasting future correlation between ...
4
votes
1answer
167 views

How to apply the “Knapsack Problem” to minimise a portfolio's volatility?

Suppose I have a stock selection universe of 100 stocks. I have estimated the covariance matrix of this 100 stocks. I would like to create an equaly-weighted basket of 5 stocks which has the lowest ...
0
votes
1answer
52 views

Floating-rate bond

How can I extract expectations about future rates from prices of floating-rate bonds? Please, give reference to any articles, if possible. Thank you in advance.
1
vote
1answer
105 views

Cash flow diagram, interest rate inflow series

I have a econ midterm coming up soon and stumbled upon this question. My approach is: 2C=800/(1.12^2)+1200/(1.12^6)=125.71 or C=1245.71/2=622.85 But I have a gut feeling this is wrong. I believe the ...
1
vote
1answer
86 views

Does DV01 grow proportionally to portfolio?

I'm having trouble understanding DV01 convention. From what I understand it stands for "Dollar value of 1 basis point." For instance, if I have a bond with DV01 = 0.05, does a portfolio composed of ...
0
votes
1answer
78 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
1
vote
0answers
26 views

Why the growth of the American Economy is going to cause the Fed to raise interest rates?

Due the growth of the American economy the Fed have published that interest rates are likely to increase. Why is that the response of the Fed?
1
vote
1answer
216 views

Market data for options

Looking for recommendations on places to get market data for options. I'm looking at NYSE and NASDAQ only. My current solution is my broker, Tradeking. I can request realtime data for 700 option ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

What is the difference between generating portfolios on the efficient frontiers and generating different efficient frontiers

This question is bothering me for a while. We suppose a very simple and basic set up. Given are a certain amount of assets from which we want to build an portfolio in an "optimal sense". MPT gives us ...
2
votes
1answer
204 views

Executions deep in the Limit Order Book?

I have some Level III (message level) data for equities and I have found several cases in which I register the execution of a Limit Order at a price "worse" than the best bid or ask. For example, ...
1
vote
1answer
129 views

constrained portfolio optimization in matlab

I am working through this paper, http://www.nber.org/papers/w8922.pdf I want to implement the portfolio weight constraints see page 6-7. Here is the brief overview of my problem: Let ...
1
vote
1answer
174 views

What is the proper discounting of PIK and non-compounding bullet loans?

This question pertains to two types of loans. Pay-in-kind (PIK) and bullet loans with quarterly payments. 1. PIK Loans A PIK loan is a loan where periodic interest is NOT paid, but added to the ...
0
votes
0answers
68 views

How to get get weekly returns from daily data

Good day I would like to get weekly returns data from daily data , I want to use the Wednesday-to-Wednesday approach – the returns (rt) are computed from the Wednesday closing prices Pt , i.e., rt = ...
5
votes
3answers
392 views

Why do we usually model returns and not prices?

I think this is a quite similar question for most of you, however it is not completely understandable for me at the moment: Why do we usually use returns and not prices to model financial data in ...
1
vote
0answers
66 views

Time-Varying Copulas (GAUSS)

Could anyone suggest me how to begin with Time-varying Copulas or Stochastic Copulas? I'm looking for the GAUSS code, however it seems there are only MATLAB code available over the internet. I'm ...
1
vote
1answer
105 views

Simulating Stock's close, high and low prices

I am testing a model in which I need to simulate closing, high and low prices (i.e. 3 dimensions of prices) of any given stock. Using the simple Geometric Brownion Motion equation I can easily ...
1
vote
0answers
12 views

Annuity Duration Based on Closed Derivative is half of Effective Duration?

I am analyzing an annuity with a stub. I calculate the effective duration as (P(-10bps) - P(+10bps))/(2*Principal * (.001)) I then take the derivative of the standard annuity formula discounted by ...
1
vote
1answer
28 views

Question regarding sinking fund

I am currently studying about financial mathematics for my Exam FM to become an actuary. There is one thing that really bothers me so I would like to have some answers. Whenever I solve a problem ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

How to apply the chain rule for partial derivatives to transformations?

I'm currently working to solve the Black-Scholes model partial differential equation (it's a model for a.o. stock option prices). The Black-Scholes equation for a calloption C(S,t) is given by $ ...
1
vote
1answer
143 views

What is Margin of Conservatism

In modelling loss given default,(LGD), we often encounter the term Margin of Conservatism. What is it in layman's terms? I am not able to find a wikipedia page on this.
1
vote
2answers
203 views

How can I create a public viewable stock market index?

I have 3,000 tickers that I would like to turn into a weighted index, viewable by the general public by going to Yahoo and typing in ^PSNDX (for example) or go to E-Trade and enter something similar. ...
0
votes
1answer
161 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
1
vote
1answer
30 views

Spread options on prices or returns?

I need some clarifications regarding spread options. I have always found them characterized as paying, at maturity, the difference between the prices of two underlying assets: $$ (S_1(T)-S_2(T)-K)^+ ...
2
votes
0answers
42 views

What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
2
votes
0answers
32 views

Portfolio optimised for diversification and regular yield. How to hedge?

Here is a portfolio optimisation for equity dividend and yield designed to diversify holdings and produce regular monthly returns using only ETFs complete with R code. ...
0
votes
0answers
60 views

Fund Allocation Logic

I am writing a program which automatically calculates the trade allocations. Imagine we have a 3 funds, Fund A, B and C. They current asset allocations (so-far-percentages) are 10%, 20%, 70% ...
1
vote
1answer
57 views

Can wavelets be effectively used to approximate the market value of an illiquid instrument?

Considering less liquid instruments can have a higher degree of volatility especially on lower time frames (1-tick or 1-second), is it possible to effectively use wavelets to reduce the issue of noise ...
2
votes
1answer
117 views

Portfolio choice problem of a CARA investor with n risky assets

Ok, I am working on a problem that consists of the following: I am looking to solve the portfolio choice optimization problem (maximizing utility with a known utility function) in the case where all ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

Comparing cost of two alternative given their distribution

I have distribution for cost of two alternative through Monte Carlo simulation. The distributions are not normal. Given the benefit of the two alternatives is the same but ungiven, I want to choose ...
2
votes
1answer
347 views

Covariance matrix and Cholesky decomposition

I am simulating a spread option with stochastic volatility using Monte Carlo simulation. I have the positive-definite covariance matrix $$ \rho = \left( \begin{array}{cccc} 1 & \rho_{1,2} & ...
2
votes
1answer
137 views

Constant Relative Risk Aversion

The question: Consider a person with constant relative risk aversion p. (a) Suppose the person has wealth of 100,000 and faces a gamble in which he wins or loses x with equal probabilities. ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

Foreign exchange - Dealer spreads and order size

Is it true that in foreign exchange markets, dealer spreads are lower for smaller order and increases for larger orders? This seems counter-intuitive when compared to other markets where dealer ...
2
votes
0answers
323 views

Calculate spread for pairs trading

What is the best way to begin calculations for pairs trading? I have seen two ways: 1) Start from the price ratio (StockAPrice/StockBPrice) and calculate mean, standard deviation and z-score from a ...
0
votes
0answers
32 views

Standardized Abnormal Returns

I have a question. In an event study, I have found a standardized cumulative abnormal return Z test formula. It is attached. I couldn't find any sources to prove it. Do you know any articles about ...
1
vote
1answer
66 views

On a source for a mean-variance portfolio optimization result

In the context of a mean_variance framework consider an optimizing investor who chooses at time $T$ portfolio weights $w$ so as to maximize the quadratic objective function: $$U(w) = E[R_p] - ...
0
votes
1answer
80 views

how to make a nonlinear gird where grid points are not equally spaced?

I need to make a grid [0,1] with points that are concentrated close to the edges (close to 0 and 1) while the remaining points in the middle can be equally spaced. The reason for doing this is that I ...
0
votes
0answers
45 views

Implied Vola from historical option prices

I have daily Close data of ODAX-options, obtained from ivolatility.com. One third of the daily data shows premiums that are just above the inner value. Even when inserting an implied vola of almost ...
2
votes
2answers
86 views

Q regarding amortization of 500,000 loans

I am brand new to this forum. I asked this question on the main StackOverflow site and it was suggested that I ask here. My task is to find a method to quickly calculate the monthly cash flow on ...
3
votes
1answer
115 views

How to get around flat likelihood function when calibrating GBM parameters

(Hope this is the correct place for this question - I posted it first on stackoverflow:) I want to calibrate jointly the drift mu and volatility sigma of a geometric brownian motion, ...
0
votes
1answer
93 views

Bivariate Black-Sholes Model

Let us propose bivariate Black-Sholes Model. Assume, we have an arbitrage-free complete market. $r_{f}$ is risk-free rate. Under real-world measure $P$: $dS_{1} (t)=S_{1} (t) ...
0
votes
0answers
81 views

Greenplum database storage model for time series data

I have to deploy a greenplum database for analysis of time series data. I will have around 50 different time series (s1,s2,s3,...s50) and each series will have multiple pairs (time is 1 hour average ...

15 30 50 per page