12
votes
3answers
1k views

Topological methods in finance

Recently a promising start-up (Ayasdi) has made headlines. They are a spin-off of the Applied and Computational Algebraic Topology group of Stanford University (ComTop). What they basically do is ...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

Portfolio of sum of two Bachelier processes

Suppose you construct a portfolio of two stocks, whose values $A$ and $B$ are modelled as a Bachelier process: $$dA = \sigma_A dW_A(t) \text{ and } dB = \sigma_B d W_B(t).$$ Each of the stock prices ...
3
votes
5answers
153 views

Why don't real-world probabilities affect the price of a call in a 1-step binomial model?

I was a bit hesitant to post this question because it seems so basic...but I wasn't able to figure it out on my own. Say we setup a one-step binomial tree with $S_0=100$, $S_u=110$ and $S_d=90$, ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views

What is the source of the money in a leverage transaction?

An example: I have 1000 dollars, the leverage is 10x, and one stock is 10$. In casual situation I could buy 100 stocks, because I have 1000 dollars, but if I use the leverage I can buy 1000 stocks. I ...
-1
votes
1answer
30 views

What is the difference between book value per share (BVPS) and earning per share(EPS)? [closed]

Hi I was reading about book value of a company and the book value per share and couldn't figure out the difference between book value per share and earning per share. Are the two even related?
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Credit vs Non Credit OTTI

i am wondering if anyone can guide me through calculating the credit vs non credit components in OTTI. in 2 quarters..in first quarter neither asset suffers impairment..at end of second quarter, i ...
2
votes
4answers
851 views

Backtesting with Simulated Historical Data?

The trading strategies that are going to backtest well are the ones that pick the winners from the past. For example, if a trading strategy simply bought apple stock it would backtest extremely well. ...
2
votes
4answers
79 views

Do stocks move up and down in value or in proportion to how much they cost?

Do stocks change in value or in proportion to how much they cost? If a stock costs 100 dollar will it generally change value at the same rate as a 700 dollar stock (IE: both will move about 2 dollars ...
8
votes
2answers
266 views

Derivation of Stochastic Vol PDE

A couple questions regarding stochastic vol PDE derivation. Following Gatheral, a general stochastic vol model is given by \begin{align*} dS(t) & = \mu(t) S(t) dt + \sqrt{v(t)}S(t) dW_1, \\ dv(t) ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Estimating factor returns with linearly dependent loadings

Given an $n\times 1$ vector of asset returns $r$, and a $n\times k$ matrix of factor loadings $X$, we can express the asset returns in terms of as-yet-unknown factors $f$ using $$ r = Xf + \epsilon ...
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Convex risk measure and a coherent risk measure?

A coherent risk measure is: $\rho(\lambda X_1+(1-\lambda X_2))$ How can it be shown that everey convex risk measure is indeed a coherent risk measure? I assume that it is enough to show that a ...
4
votes
3answers
76 views

Reverse Repos as a means to adjust interest rates

How does the NY Fed's trading desk use this process as a tool to adjust bond prices?
1
vote
2answers
52 views

Value-at-Risk “hiding risk in the tail” and diversification?

I have a question regarding Value-at-Risk and diversification? When one says that VaR "hides the risk in the tail", does one mean that if we for instance look at VaR at level p=0.05 say, we might get ...
8
votes
2answers
2k views

What is “high frequency quoting” or “quote spam”?

What is called "high frequency quoting" or "quote spam" in the context of high frequency trading? Why do some people consider that as a problem for the market?
0
votes
0answers
31 views

In what situations would cross validations scores be inaccurate?

I'm trying to fit a SVM model on times series stock return data, predicting a buy, hold, or sell signal of the stock. I'm using 10-fold cross validation (using the R package ...
10
votes
3answers
602 views

Market making in thinly traded assets

Could anyone suggest some literature or have any practical advice for marking a market in thinly traded assets with the following characteristics: 0-10 trades per day. Open limit-order book with 0-5 ...
3
votes
1answer
99 views

Something is wrong with my MtM calculation

I'm trying to value a super simple receiver swap immediately after the first swap settlement (1 year in). The given answer is -1.91 million to the floating rate payer, but I am not coming up with ...
2
votes
0answers
87 views

Daily Hurst Exponent

I am trying to estimate daily Hurst exponent values of a stock returns (e.g. for each day to have also Hurst exponent - something like that: ...
3
votes
3answers
110 views

How much would one pay for the max of two stocks?

I'm trying to figure out if stochastic calculus is the right approach for this problem... but I only vaguely understand it and I am trying to gauge if I need to spend the time learning measure theory ...
5
votes
0answers
81 views

Expectation over Markov Process and discrete Ito integral (discrete stochastic calculus)

I am doing a research on communication protocol design. A file of $n$ blocks is transferred in several rounds and $R_i$ denotes the number of blocks received in the $i$-th round. The sender sends ...
1
vote
1answer
93 views

One-step ahead forecast of a AR(1) process (GARCH context)

I am using a Matlab toolbox for obtaining one-step ahead forecasts of the conditional mean from the ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process and I have encountered a piece of code that contains, in my opinion, a ...
1
vote
1answer
98 views

Estimating profit/loss of a Gold Futures option using Theta and Gamma

HELP! I am trying to find how much the underlying price of a gold futures option must move in order to breakeven on owning an option for a day. I was hoping someone versed in pricing options could ...
3
votes
2answers
96 views

Futures Parameters for Value at Risk

I am new to risk management. I am calculating the VaR for a portfolio of futures contracts, long and shorts. I calculated it using the historical, parametric, and ...
1
vote
2answers
440 views

Optimizing Principal Component factor weightings over time

I was given the returns of a cross-asset class portfolio of ETFs and I conducted PCA to obtain factors on dates from T-n, T-3, T-2,..., T. What I would like to do is decompose the market moves from ...
5
votes
2answers
84 views

Constructing a Brownian motion from a Simple Random Walk

I'm trying to get my head around how a Brownian motion is formed from a simple random walk. I've seen two similar methods used: Why has one approach used $\frac{1}{\sqrt{k}}$ and the other ...
6
votes
2answers
5k views

Difference between S&P 500 index and S&P 500 Total Return index?

There's the standard S&P 500 index (SPX) and the rarer used S&P 500 Total Return index (SPTR). If you compare graphs, you'll find that the latter grows faster. Supposedly, SPTR assumes ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

Portfolio construction

Suppose I have 3 stocks. Their historical returns and some variables like RSI, ATR, EMAs for all 3 of them. The goal is to compute the weights each stock should have in a portfolio. If I do something ...
4
votes
1answer
218 views

Fitting a non linear AR + GARCH(1,1)-M model

I want to fit the following model to a time series: $$ y_{t}=\alpha_{0}+\alpha_{1}y_{t-1}+\alpha_{2}y_{t-1}^{2}+\lambda h_{t}+\varepsilon_{t} $$ $$ ...
5
votes
2answers
183 views

How to derive this approximation of the risk-neutral expectation of the variance?

On the paper Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009 RFS) the authors say about equation (15): The corresponding model implied risk-neutral conditional expectation ...
2
votes
2answers
58 views

Problem with obtaining densities

For my research I need to obtain a series of densities, however, I am encountering some problems. The first problem is perhaps very simple, but the answer eludes me. Let's say I have an observation ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

Notional Value in Equity Options

I have calculated the NPV of an Equity option and need to account the notional for it and have issues understanding the NPV <-> notional relation. Example: Strike price 100 Spot rate: 107.41 NPV ...
32
votes
9answers
4k views

Option pricing before Black-Scholes

According to the Wikipedia article, Contracts similar to options are believed to have been used since ancient times. In London, puts and "refusals" (calls) first became well-known trading ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Drawbacks of Black-Scholes option pricing model

Will highly appreciate if anybody can provide logical financial proof why the Black-Scholes option pricing model overestimates the value for long-term options as described in this paper "Warren ...
1
vote
0answers
98 views

Skewed Generalized Error Distribution's (SGED) pdf

I want to use the SGED distribution of Theodossiou for GARCH estimation, however, I am struggling to understand which is the correct pdf function of the distribution. Let me just say that the ...
3
votes
2answers
203 views

Risk-adjusted performance measurement: Log returns vs. simple returns and geometric vs. arithmetic mean return

I have just simulated 49 weeks of correlated returns on 5 different stocks, assuming returns being lognormally distributed. Next, I am supposed to assume that the simulated 49 weeks of returns ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views

SAS code for Brownian Motion

I want to simulate call options using monte carlo algorithm. I am a noob SAS user but i know that i need to: -simulate random stock prices with no dividend in respect to different ...
6
votes
2answers
248 views

Does GARCH derived variance explain the auto-correlation in a time series?

Given a time series of $u_i$ returns where i=1 to t. $\sigma_i$ is calculated from GARCH(1,1) as $\sigma_i^2=w+\alpha u_{i-1}^2 +\beta \sigma_{i-1}^2$ . What is the mathematical basis to say that ...
2
votes
1answer
54 views

Sharpe ratio with leveraged ETFs

There has been a discussion about how leverage affects Sharpe Ratios, but not in the context of leveraged ETFs (such as 2x or 3x). I'm just wondering how leveraged ETFs, if at all, change the ...
3
votes
2answers
60 views

How do we include inflation in our calculations? [closed]

How do we include inflation in our compound interest calculations? E.g. if we have current principal of 1000$ and the interest rate is 3% after 10 years we have ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Markowitz mean-variance optimization as “error maximization”

I hear it said a lot that standard MV optimization "maximizes errors". But I can't find a good explanation for what exactly they mean by this "maximization" of estimation error. I understand that if ...
16
votes
1answer
512 views

performance of historical VaR parameters

An historical VaR measure is parameterized in terms of the confidence level and also number of periods. Specifically, the $\alpha$% T-period VaR is defined as the portfolio loss x in market value over ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

nikkei 225 yen contract on the CME

This may be a silly question on futures trading, but I haven't found a clear answer on the CME website. For the Nikkei 225 Yen contract on the CME, which is denominated in Yen, the margin is also ...
2
votes
2answers
180 views

European call down and out option (geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo, Euler)

I need to estimate the expected value and the Greeks of an European call down and out option, assuming geometrical Brownian motion of the asset, with Monte Carlo simulation employing Euler ...
1
vote
2answers
86 views

How does stock buy back increase RoA of a company?

In one of the videos in Youtube which explained about stock buy backs, it was told that companies can achieve higher Return on Assets by doing stock buy backs. The explanation went like this :- When a ...
4
votes
1answer
60 views

market change, correlation and estimation bias

I hear many quants sating that markets change very slowly. This "fact" is even presented as a justification of statistical arbitrage, for example, by affirming that correlations remain roughly the ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Moody's seasoned corporate bond yields

The Fed publishes Moody's seasoned corporate bond yields here. These yields are not broken out by maturity. According to this website, the yields represent "long-term" bonds, with minimum and ...
0
votes
1answer
101 views

How to estimate today's closing price?

I'm working on interday trading algorithm and I have a basic question: How can I estimate today's closing price? I need it to predict tomorrow closing price. Should I use the price few moments before ...
1
vote
2answers
187 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the best alternative of Quantlib library

We need to build a Fixed Income Portfolio Risk Analytics solution. Somehow due to administrative reason we can't use Quantlib which is written in C++, even call it through SWIG via JNI. We have tried ...
4
votes
1answer
110 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...

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