0
votes
1answer
354 views

Matlab - Differences between rng and rand

I was trying to run some Monte-Carlo simulations and if I used: rng(seed, 'Twister'); For some reason I would get "Option Values Can not be Negative" errors in the blsimpv function, but if I just ...
0
votes
2answers
151 views

Credit risk data

I am trying to get historical data for credit risk and do some analysis on it as a school project. I thought CDX index might be a good proxy for typical credit risk data, but I am not sure. Typically ...
7
votes
3answers
169 views

How to justify a model that could not predict external factors?

I'm building some models, for example, Bad Loan (NPL) rate. It's based on historical simulation method -- basically it's saying the future behavior could be predicted by history data. However, this ...
13
votes
5answers
13k views

Mapping symbols between tickers, Reuters RICs and Bloomberg tickers

Is there any known solution (preferably open source) to map between ticker symbols, Reuters and Bloomberg symbols. For example: Ticker: AAPL Reuters: RSF.ANY.AAPL.OQ Bloomberg: AAPL US Equity ...
0
votes
0answers
156 views

Correlation Sensitivity

Suppose I have 2 stocks $S_{1}$ and $S_{2}$: \begin{align} & dS_{1}=rS_{1}dt+\sigma_{1}S_{1}dB_{1}\\ & dS_{2}=rS_{2}dt+\sigma_{2}S_{2}dB_{2}\\ & dB_{1}dB_{2}=\rho dt \end{align} Then I ...
0
votes
2answers
355 views

Why the implied volatilities calculated are so different

I Calculated facebook option(expired in 12/4/13) Implied Volatility with the Bisection Method. The program will be attached at the end. The results for different strike prices are so different: ...
4
votes
3answers
467 views

Central Limit Theorem and Lévy processes

Lévy processes are self-decomposable and independent on any non-overlapping interval, so how come the distribution of the process at time T,$\phi(T)$, which is the sum of N i.i.d with law $\phi(T/N)$ ...
2
votes
1answer
261 views

Stepwise Cointegration

This is more of a general question at this point, but if my thought process makes sense I will follow up with an R implementation. I have read a number of papers on cointegration analysis for pairs ...
3
votes
2answers
114 views

Endogeniety of Black-Scholes

I know this is a naïve question but how does the BS formula have a closed form solution? It seems from what I am reading Price impacts delta, price influences volatility which in turn influeces delta ...
3
votes
1answer
218 views

Examples of investable factors via factor funds/ETFs

In the draft chapter about hedge funds of his forthcoming book Andrew Ang postulates the dawn of new factor funds (p. 35 ff.), i.e. funds that directly target factors like volatility, value-growth, ...
1
vote
3answers
345 views

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

Is Kolmogorov-Smirnov test self-sufficient to prove normal distribution of a time series? And then test efficiency of a market?
4
votes
2answers
469 views

Is drift rate the same as interest rate in risk-neutral random walk when using Monte Carlo for option pricing?

When using following risk-neutral random walk $$\delta S = rS \delta t + \sigma S \sqrt{\delta t} \phi$$ where $\phi \sim N(0,1)$. Now when a text mentions drift = 5% does that mean that interest ...
2
votes
2answers
809 views

Theta's effect for OTM options

How does $\Theta$ change for deep out-of-the money options? Looking at the below graph, it seems the time decay is highest for ATM options and increases rapidly as we approach maturity of the option. ...
1
vote
2answers
142 views

Reasoning behind multiple names for the equivalent risk measures AVaR/ETL/ES/CVaR

Doe's any one know the history behind, or background of the multiple naming conventions for the equivalent risk functions. Different quant authors prefer using different names, does any one know why? ...
6
votes
3answers
374 views

Scanning a stock database for errors/flaws

I'm currently working on some matlab code that is supposed to check a stock database for any errors (missing values, wrong values, etc.). The reason for this is that after reading this post I came to ...
0
votes
1answer
271 views

Doesn't a perpetual option contradict the Black-Scholes framework?

A standard example when learning to price American options is the perpetual American put. This is a put that has no expiry (or you can consider T = infinity). The standard solution prices this using ...
2
votes
3answers
1k views

How to detect and adjust for stock splits? [duplicate]

I am using a large daily data panel for over 250 companies and over several years. I am concerned about adjusting for stock splits. Is there any program in SAS to detect stock splits? How do I adjust ...
5
votes
2answers
362 views

Correlation decay in lognormal distribution

I noticed that if you use two correlated geometric brownian motions, the correlation structure decays in time pretty fast even for really high correlation values. I think that is not replicating ...
2
votes
1answer
194 views

Is Optimization ignoring correlation valid?

I have a fairly pedestrian optimization problem: Max sharpe, subject to a x% vol target. I have a set of expected returns, asset vols and a correlation matrix. I am finding that when i set the ...
0
votes
1answer
354 views

main arbitrage & statistical arbitrage concepts

can we please summarise here some of the basic concepts, tools used in arbitrage and statistical arbitrage in real life? ARB: benefit from price difference on same asset ARB: difference between ...
1
vote
1answer
345 views

Yield on Fixed income futures

I am trying to get a simplified model of the DV01 for the US 10YR Note futures but I cant figure out what the current yield is. When I back out the implied interest rate on the current TYM3 futures ...
5
votes
3answers
316 views

Calculate the expectation of a shift CDF

Suppose $X$ is a normal random variable with mean 0, and variance $\sigma^2$. $F(x)$ is the CDF(cumulative distribution function) of a standard normal random variable(mean 0 and variable 1), how to ...
3
votes
1answer
428 views

Pairs trade CDS contracts using cointegration

Recently I have looked at some sovereign CDS spreads (of the Nordic countries to be precise) and have tested for cointegration in the levels (i.e. untransformed) and logs of the spreads. Tests ...
2
votes
1answer
163 views

backtesting a 5% quantile model of a discrete value random variable?

If a random variable is discrete, and we are interested in its quantile value, how to define a proper back testing procedure? For example, the underlying variable with a discrete value is $$ ...
5
votes
2answers
2k views

Square root of time

I am writing about VaR and I am wondering about the following: We can scale the VaR to different time horizons by using the square root of time, which means, that the volatility is adjusted by square ...
1
vote
1answer
56 views

Annual Percentage Rate and Yield

I found references relative to US where the Nominal Annual Percentage Rate or simply APR is defined as the simple interest rate (i.e. proportional to time and without compounding). Instead the ...
3
votes
1answer
569 views

What is the proper way to calculate returns for Pair Trading?

Edit I am assuming that I don't need to use margin account to short here: What is a standard way to calculate return for pairs trading strategy? For example, I bought 100 dollars worth of a loser ...
2
votes
0answers
184 views

Data feed that shows individual orders

Does anyone know how I can obtain time and sales data for a stock? Lots of feeds provide the total volume but I would like to see the breakdown of what buy/sell orders made up the day's volume. I ...
1
vote
1answer
117 views

Find a paper about portfolio management

Where to find the following paper of the noble prize Paul Samuelson (2003) “When and Why Mean-Variance Analysis Generically Fails,”. I was looking for it desperately on Google and Google Scholar but ...
3
votes
0answers
170 views

Fitting a non linear AR + GARCH(1,1)-M model

I want to fit the following model to a time series: $$ y_{t}=\alpha_{0}+\alpha_{1}y_{t-1}+\alpha_{2}y_{t-1}^{2}+\lambda h_{t}+\varepsilon_{t} $$ $$ ...
4
votes
0answers
235 views

compute time from FX forward, how use DEPO rates?

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
4
votes
2answers
383 views

Predict Market Direction, What is forecastable/unforecastable?

Let's decompose the return process $R_t$ as follows : $$R_{t} = sign(R_{t}) * |R_{t}| $$ What's part of the equation is forecastable?
5
votes
0answers
687 views

VaR model Unconditional Coverage Tests: Is this extension of Kupiec POF test correct?

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
1
vote
2answers
376 views

Calculating Momentum From Returns

I am doing some modelling and have some data: ...
4
votes
3answers
962 views

Pairs trading: Question on non-negative profits, size of the positions and trading signals

I'm trying to backtest Pairs Trading but have become a bit confused on the different methods of selecting pairs, how to look for trading signals and what size of the positions to take in the assets. ...
7
votes
2answers
218 views

Is there a comprehensive reference book on US fixed income conventions?

In Canadian fixed income markets there is a nice handbook called Canadian Conventions in Fixed Income Markets (PDF). It contains detailed market standard pricing formulas for calculating prices, ...
5
votes
1answer
331 views

Improving GARCH modeling approach

Modeling Exchange Rate Using GARCH Let's consider the following exchange rate : USD/JPY For each sequence, we consider changes in the daily difference between the highest price and the open price of ...
3
votes
1answer
215 views

How to calculate tracking error given mismatches in available data

Apologies if this is an overly simple question. I have a series of stock returns, and I would like to estimate my portfolio's ex-ante tracking error versus the benchmark (S&P 500) given the ...
2
votes
2answers
176 views

Comparing Cash Equivalent of risky portfolios

To compare two risky portfolios, Mean-Variance (M-V) portfolios for example, many compare their Cash Equivalent ($CE$). $CE$ is defined as the amount of cash that provides the same utility as the ...
4
votes
1answer
378 views

Stability of correlations and volatility

I had a discussion recently about the stability of volatilities and correlations. If we take for example stocks and bonds (think of DAX and Bund) then I have seen changing volatilities (something like ...
1
vote
1answer
57 views

How to model housing loan market?

Housing loan market vibrates according to the policies, such as LTV rate, for example, if must pay 20% downpayment, LTV rate would be 80% interest rate, for example, lifting the loan rate, the ...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

How to distinguish between different types of algorithmic trading

Algorithmic trading involves the use of algorithms to optimally execute trading instructions. Then there are algorithms which initiate trades, based on various quantitative strategies (e.g. pairs ...
2
votes
0answers
149 views

EUR/PLN and EUR/USD delta-term-vol surface quoting convension

does anyone know for sure what is the FX market convension to quote delta-term pairs for EUR/PLN, for EUR/USD. I know that for EUR/PLN it should be delta p.a forward, for EUR/USD it should be delta ...
0
votes
1answer
173 views

compute FX forward from broker's data

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
7
votes
0answers
147 views

Regression in liquidity risk model of Jarrow/Protter

In the paper "Liquidity Risk and Risk Measure Computation" authors describe a linear supply curve model for liquidity risks in presence of market impact, i.e. impact-affected asset price $S(t,x)$ is ...
5
votes
1answer
121 views

How to perform Empirical Mode Decomposition?

I am trying to use the EMD applied to EURUSD open price to train a machine learning algo (RVM). I have run only once the EMD on my training set and once on the training+test set. The results on the ...
3
votes
2answers
157 views

Geometric Brownian Motion with non-negative random increments

I am attempting to model a cumulative time-series of a positive integer variable across independent entities. The cumulative series appears to follow a process of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) based ...
4
votes
3answers
346 views

How to implement a long-term trade on oil?

I believe that one of the most compelling case of long-term trade is the long position on oil. Fundamentally, it seems quite clear that demands is going to grow in the future as emerging markets start ...
2
votes
1answer
328 views

Does DOM trading using broker data make any sense?

Can I use DOM information from Interactive Brokers? Does it make sense? I assume that it makes sense to apply some volume based algorithms only then when you know this order book, that you can get ...
0
votes
1answer
155 views

volatility Table and BS formula

assume I have implied FX volatility Delta-Term table from broker. I have time noticed as 2M, 3M. what do I have to put into BS formula, is it 2/12 or "count the business days"/"daycount basis"? I am ...

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