13
votes
5answers
1k views

George Soros models

Mr. Soros in his books talked about principles which are not used by today's financial mathematics — namely reflexivity of all actions on the market. Simply it can be given by following: ...
1
vote
1answer
217 views

Blackbox Optimization + Bootstrapping = Parameter Selection?

Most automated trading systems have a number of embedded parameters such as the lookback periods, entry and exit thresholds, etc. This is like the moving average crossover system or any of the systems ...
2
votes
1answer
544 views

Predict Quadratic Trend in Time Series

Can anyone kindly point out if I made any mistakes in making predictions using quadratic regression model in time series? I called the predict() function with the appropriate data vector and model, ...
2
votes
3answers
582 views

Analyze raw tick data

I'd like to work with raw tick data and naturally this data is unevenly spaced (for example, a couple of quotes are at the same second etc.) For example ...
3
votes
1answer
371 views

Monte Carlo simulating Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process

The CIR process is given by the SDE $$ \mathrm dr_t = \theta(\mu-r_t)\mathrm dt + \sigma\sqrt{r_t}\mathrm dW_t $$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion. I am interested in finite-difference schemes of ...
6
votes
2answers
986 views

Is Unexpected Loss ever used in Basel II?

In Basel II, EL is useful. It's calculated as $$EL = PD \cdot EAD \cdot LGD $$ in advance IRB (internal rate-based approach), Correlation $$R = 0.12 \frac{1 – e^{-50 \cdot PD}}{1 – e^{-50}} + 0.24 ...
6
votes
2answers
717 views

Comparing MVO with Resampled Efficient Frontier

My question: How can I compare the Resampled Frontier (REF) to the standard MVO frontier when I have been provided with $\mu$, $\Omega$, and don't have access to true future data to test real out of ...
3
votes
2answers
487 views

Statistical models for exchange rates?

What stochastics processes (if any) are used to model currencies exchange rates and how good are such models ? References on subj. are also highly welcome.
2
votes
1answer
370 views

What is the difference between a recovery swap and a CDS?

As I understand it, recovery swaps and CDS are both used to privide hedging against the default risk of a loan. What is the difference between them?
48
votes
10answers
26k views

How can I go about applying machine learning algorithms to stock markets?

I am not very sure, if this question fits in here. I have recently begun, reading and learning about machine learning. Can someone throw some light onto how to go about it or rather can anyone share ...
0
votes
2answers
139 views

Quality of GAINDATA timestamps

Does anyone have a view on the quality of the timestamping of GAINCAPITAL's free historical data. There is non-FX data there and I wonder if the timestamps are in sync?
3
votes
1answer
171 views

What is lagged interest rate?

I am trying to reproduce a plot in "Statistics and Data engineering for Financial Engineering" by D. Ruppert. The author uses the risk free returns data available in the Ecdat package in R. ...
4
votes
0answers
386 views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
0
votes
2answers
211 views

Matlab; How to specify Coupon frequency for Interest Rate Swap

I'm trying to price an interest rate swap and would like to change the default coupon payment frequency from 1 a year to 2 or 4 a year. I'm using ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

What does the prefix PX stand for on a Bloomberg Terminal?

Simple question for the group: Regarding PX_LAST, PX_VOLUME etc... What does the "PX" prefix stand for?
4
votes
1answer
135 views

Relating Quantitative Easing to the rally in the SPX

The Fed's balance sheet has been expanding over the last few month due to QE3. When the Fed goes out to buy treasuries or MBS, it's taking those securities out of the market and exchanging them with ...
1
vote
1answer
267 views

LIBOR Rates available in CSV, XML etc

Is there a website that offers current LIBOR rates for all tenors for free in machine readable formats?
3
votes
1answer
129 views

Different Exercise Style Options on Same Underlying

Some equities on European markets have options traded in two different exercise styles: American and European. Examples: ABB and ABB (european) on Eurex Banco Santander on MEFF Consider ...
1
vote
1answer
184 views

Which prices to use to compute realized volatility?

For computation of realized volatility, especially range based volatility, deal prices are commonly used. If Level I data available should the deals data still be used or another measures of spot ...
3
votes
0answers
58 views

Discount of Asian vs European vols

I understand the discount for Asian vs. European vol depends on time to expiry and length of averaging period. This makes sense intuitively; a short averaging period far away blurs into a single ...
3
votes
1answer
110 views

Are there any good benchmarks for performance of vanilla option pricing code?

I've seen parsec (http://parsec.cs.princeton.edu/index.htm), which has a PDE pricing component, but the distribution is enormous and I haven't bothered to try to download it for review. I'm ...
11
votes
1answer
713 views

So many volatility models. Any comparisons of them?

Are there any papers that make an explicit contrast/comparison of the following (or other) vol models in terms of the suitability for addressing some empirical problem? Wavelet multiresolution ...
0
votes
1answer
233 views

How to adjust local currency returns to US$/EUR return?

Iam doing research on return characteristics. As of today the scope of the research has changed from a local investor point of view to an international investor point of view. This basically means ...
2
votes
1answer
409 views

Implied Volatility for Asian option

I am new to the topic of Asian options. Assume I want to price an Asian put (fixed strike, discrete average) in the Black Scholes world. I know implementations to calculate the value but what is the ...
5
votes
4answers
599 views

How to optimize a portfolio under *both* maximum diversity ratio and minimum variance

I have a follow-on question to questions that appeared here and was not sure if the right way was to ask in the comments or post a new question. My question is: how can I optimize a portfolio to suit ...
4
votes
5answers
2k views

Call vs. Put Option

I have two interrelated questions that have been bothering me for some time. I have read all the stuff online and it still doesn't make sense to me: Let us assume: 0% interest rate (both hedge ...
-1
votes
2answers
174 views

What's the first time-integral of price called?

In general I'm wondering about the names of time-derivatives of price. E.g. in physics the first few time-derivatives of position are: f(x) = displacement f'(x) = velocity f''(x) = acceleration ...
12
votes
4answers
8k views

Why are GARCH models used to forecast volatility if residuals are often correlated?

The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...
3
votes
2answers
193 views

If the distribution of returns in symmetric, why not use a coin toss, small risk & high reward?

If the distribution of returns is symmetric then why not use a coin toss to decide whether to buy or sell Calculate the average velocity of the market (ATR - in technical analysis) Place a stop ...
4
votes
1answer
428 views

Replicating strategy in the Black-Scholes model

I have a two-asset Black-Scholes model for a financial market: $dB_t=B_t r dt$ $dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma dW_t)$ I introduce a European claim $\xi=max(K,S_T)$ with maturity $T$, for some fixed $K$. I ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

price of a “Cash-or-nothing binary call option”

I'm stuck with one homework problem here: Assume there is a geometric Brownian motion \begin{equation} dS_t=\mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t \end{equation} Assume the stock pays dividend, with the ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

Early execise of American Call on Non-Dividend paying stock.

Let us consider an American call option with strike price K and the time to maturity be T. Assume that the underlying stock does not pay any dividend. Let the price of this call option is C$^a$ today ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

When the Inverse Correlation between the SPX and VIX breaks down

As we all know the S&P and its implied vol, the VIX, generally move in opposite direction. To a large extent, the correlations makes sense. IV is one of the main drivers of the price of options, ...
3
votes
0answers
88 views

Optimal mortgage rate strategy

When buying a mortgage, you can choose to "lock in" a rate at any point within 60 days of your closing date. Once locked in, you can't revert. This makes it a secretary problem - in the traditional ...
3
votes
1answer
157 views

Desired portfolio volume

I am working on a toy model, in part of which an investor has to decide (based on some utility theory) how much money to invest in a given portfolio. For simplicity, assume that the portfolio is ...
1
vote
0answers
140 views

Market Exposure and Hedging

Normally the Market exposure associated with your stock/portfolio is your delta for that stock/ portfolio. Basic idea of hedging involved here is buying/selling respective futures depending upon ...
5
votes
2answers
657 views

Best tool to generate cashflow diagrams

I often have to generate cashflow diagrams. I was wondering if anyone has a good tool to generate them in either $\LaTeX$ or a picture?
1
vote
1answer
151 views

Add transaction costs to prediction

An algorithm predicts price movement by some certainty and it invests proportional to the confidence level. Predictions range from -1 to +1, -1 meaning sell for a value of ...
0
votes
0answers
110 views

Exact value of mean reversion rate knowing terminal value of the process

Let you have the following mean reverting process: $\text{d}x_{t}=a(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t$, where the diffusion term is absent, that is this process is not stochastic. Let you know the value of ...
6
votes
4answers
740 views

Threshold calculation for buying a mean-reverting asset

I am trying to figure-out an optimal policy for buying a unit when its price follows a mean-reverting price process (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck), when I have a finite time deadline for buying the unit. I ...
3
votes
0answers
132 views

Is it random walk?

I would like to ask a question about random walk. Campbell, Lo & Mackinlay defined the random walk, in the following way (RW3): $$ cov[f(r_{t}),g(r_{t+k})]=0,\qquad k\neq0 $$ for all $f(\cdot)$ ...
5
votes
3answers
1k views

How to use Itô's formula to deduce that a stochastic process is a martingale?

I'm working through different books about financial mathematics and solving some problems I get stuck. Suppose you define an arbitrary stochastic process, for example $ X_t := W_t^8-8t $ where $ W_t ...
1
vote
1answer
167 views

What are the differences between CFD and SSF?

What are the intricate differences between SSF and CFD? The similarities are that both take into account interest and settled daily thus looks more or less the same pima facie.
4
votes
1answer
182 views

Covariance of brownian motion and its time average

It's a question pertaining to the correlation of a log asset process (following BM) and its time average, to put it into form, if $$X(t)=\mu t+\sigma W(t)$$ then $$ ...
3
votes
0answers
86 views

Overnight Index Swaps

Just a very quick general question regarding the OIS market. Is it common place on termsheets to state a PV Notional and additionally a FV notional, if so what is the purpose of this and does market ...
5
votes
1answer
469 views

Profiting from price discrepancies between stock exchanges

Here is an interesting video by Nanex: http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=rB5jJuMP84E Perhaps some of you have already seen something similar. It is an animation of the order routing. It shows 1/2 ...
4
votes
1answer
118 views

pricing of heat rate-linked derivative

It's a simplified model. Suppose $U_t$ is a random variables subject to Lognormal($x_1$, $z_1^2$)distribution. $V_t$ is a random variables subject to Lognormal($x_2$, $z_2^2$)distribution. Suppose ...
2
votes
2answers
194 views

Quadratic variation quesiton

Here I have this question (i) state Ito's formula (ii) hence or otherwise show that $\int^t_0B_s dB_s = \dfrac{1}{2}B^2_t -\dfrac{1}{2} t$ (iii) define the quadratic variation $Q(t)$ of Brownian ...
2
votes
0answers
102 views

How to simulate a Geometric Binomial Process with state/tie dependent increments?

I want to simulate a geometric binomial process with state/time dependent increments. So the model is given by \begin{align}R_t=\frac{X_t}{X_{t-1}}\end{align} \begin{align}P(R_t=u)=p(X_{t-1},t) ...

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