1
vote
1answer
98 views

One-step ahead forecast of a AR(1) process (GARCH context)

I am using a Matlab toolbox for obtaining one-step ahead forecasts of the conditional mean from the ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process and I have encountered a piece of code that contains, in my opinion, a ...
1
vote
1answer
98 views

Estimating profit/loss of a Gold Futures option using Theta and Gamma

HELP! I am trying to find how much the underlying price of a gold futures option must move in order to breakeven on owning an option for a day. I was hoping someone versed in pricing options could ...
3
votes
2answers
97 views

Futures Parameters for Value at Risk

I am new to risk management. I am calculating the VaR for a portfolio of futures contracts, long and shorts. I calculated it using the historical, parametric, and ...
1
vote
2answers
442 views

Optimizing Principal Component factor weightings over time

I was given the returns of a cross-asset class portfolio of ETFs and I conducted PCA to obtain factors on dates from T-n, T-3, T-2,..., T. What I would like to do is decompose the market moves from ...
5
votes
2answers
85 views

Constructing a Brownian motion from a Simple Random Walk

I'm trying to get my head around how a Brownian motion is formed from a simple random walk. I've seen two similar methods used: Why has one approach used $\frac{1}{\sqrt{k}}$ and the other ...
6
votes
2answers
5k views

Difference between S&P 500 index and S&P 500 Total Return index?

There's the standard S&P 500 index (SPX) and the rarer used S&P 500 Total Return index (SPTR). If you compare graphs, you'll find that the latter grows faster. Supposedly, SPTR assumes ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

Portfolio construction

Suppose I have 3 stocks. Their historical returns and some variables like RSI, ATR, EMAs for all 3 of them. The goal is to compute the weights each stock should have in a portfolio. If I do something ...
4
votes
1answer
219 views

Fitting a non linear AR + GARCH(1,1)-M model

I want to fit the following model to a time series: $$ y_{t}=\alpha_{0}+\alpha_{1}y_{t-1}+\alpha_{2}y_{t-1}^{2}+\lambda h_{t}+\varepsilon_{t} $$ $$ ...
5
votes
2answers
185 views

How to derive this approximation of the risk-neutral expectation of the variance?

On the paper Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009 RFS) the authors say about equation (15): The corresponding model implied risk-neutral conditional expectation ...
2
votes
2answers
59 views

Problem with obtaining densities

For my research I need to obtain a series of densities, however, I am encountering some problems. The first problem is perhaps very simple, but the answer eludes me. Let's say I have an observation ...
0
votes
1answer
83 views

Notional Value in Equity Options

I have calculated the NPV of an Equity option and need to account the notional for it and have issues understanding the NPV <-> notional relation. Example: Strike price 100 Spot rate: 107.41 NPV ...
32
votes
9answers
4k views

Option pricing before Black-Scholes

According to the Wikipedia article, Contracts similar to options are believed to have been used since ancient times. In London, puts and "refusals" (calls) first became well-known trading ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Drawbacks of Black-Scholes option pricing model

Will highly appreciate if anybody can provide logical financial proof why the Black-Scholes option pricing model overestimates the value for long-term options as described in this paper "Warren ...
1
vote
0answers
105 views

Skewed Generalized Error Distribution's (SGED) pdf

I want to use the SGED distribution of Theodossiou for GARCH estimation, however, I am struggling to understand which is the correct pdf function of the distribution. Let me just say that the ...
3
votes
2answers
208 views

Risk-adjusted performance measurement: Log returns vs. simple returns and geometric vs. arithmetic mean return

I have just simulated 49 weeks of correlated returns on 5 different stocks, assuming returns being lognormally distributed. Next, I am supposed to assume that the simulated 49 weeks of returns ...
0
votes
0answers
33 views

SAS code for Brownian Motion

I want to simulate call options using monte carlo algorithm. I am a noob SAS user but i know that i need to: -simulate random stock prices with no dividend in respect to different ...
6
votes
2answers
248 views

Does GARCH derived variance explain the auto-correlation in a time series?

Given a time series of $u_i$ returns where i=1 to t. $\sigma_i$ is calculated from GARCH(1,1) as $\sigma_i^2=w+\alpha u_{i-1}^2 +\beta \sigma_{i-1}^2$ . What is the mathematical basis to say that ...
2
votes
1answer
55 views

Sharpe ratio with leveraged ETFs

There has been a discussion about how leverage affects Sharpe Ratios, but not in the context of leveraged ETFs (such as 2x or 3x). I'm just wondering how leveraged ETFs, if at all, change the ...
3
votes
2answers
60 views

How do we include inflation in our calculations? [closed]

How do we include inflation in our compound interest calculations? E.g. if we have current principal of 1000$ and the interest rate is 3% after 10 years we have ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Markowitz mean-variance optimization as “error maximization”

I hear it said a lot that standard MV optimization "maximizes errors". But I can't find a good explanation for what exactly they mean by this "maximization" of estimation error. I understand that if ...
16
votes
1answer
512 views

performance of historical VaR parameters

An historical VaR measure is parameterized in terms of the confidence level and also number of periods. Specifically, the $\alpha$% T-period VaR is defined as the portfolio loss x in market value over ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

nikkei 225 yen contract on the CME

This may be a silly question on futures trading, but I haven't found a clear answer on the CME website. For the Nikkei 225 Yen contract on the CME, which is denominated in Yen, the margin is also ...
2
votes
2answers
180 views

European call down and out option (geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo, Euler)

I need to estimate the expected value and the Greeks of an European call down and out option, assuming geometrical Brownian motion of the asset, with Monte Carlo simulation employing Euler ...
1
vote
2answers
89 views

How does stock buy back increase RoA of a company?

In one of the videos in Youtube which explained about stock buy backs, it was told that companies can achieve higher Return on Assets by doing stock buy backs. The explanation went like this :- When a ...
4
votes
1answer
60 views

market change, correlation and estimation bias

I hear many quants sating that markets change very slowly. This "fact" is even presented as a justification of statistical arbitrage, for example, by affirming that correlations remain roughly the ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Moody's seasoned corporate bond yields

The Fed publishes Moody's seasoned corporate bond yields here. These yields are not broken out by maturity. According to this website, the yields represent "long-term" bonds, with minimum and ...
0
votes
1answer
101 views

How to estimate today's closing price?

I'm working on interday trading algorithm and I have a basic question: How can I estimate today's closing price? I need it to predict tomorrow closing price. Should I use the price few moments before ...
1
vote
2answers
189 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the best alternative of Quantlib library

We need to build a Fixed Income Portfolio Risk Analytics solution. Somehow due to administrative reason we can't use Quantlib which is written in C++, even call it through SWIG via JNI. We have tried ...
4
votes
1answer
112 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...
1
vote
1answer
260 views

Difference between Risk avoidance and Risk transfer

I was hoping some could explain the two terms namely, risk avoidance and risk transfer. Also, can a risk be avoided by transferring it?
0
votes
1answer
36 views

Do I calculate weights of assets correctly?

I solved attached question but I am not sure whether I did part a and c correctly. Is there a way to calculate weights of A and B by just knowing their standard deviation and correlation's value?
0
votes
0answers
19 views

Historical Market Cap

Where can I find a database that will tell me companies with $200 Billion in market capitalization since 2000? I am trying to understand companies that fall in this category for every year since 2000. ...
0
votes
0answers
31 views

Inflow outflow of money into a stock

http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow.html#weekly Interestingly, for the 1-month DJIA total index, the balance is very close to one. Is there a mathematical explanation ...
2
votes
1answer
33 views

Translating dates to times

I am using Act/365 day-count convention. How do I compute the time offset between 2/28/2015 and 3/1/2016? 3/1/2017 Some ideas: Direct day count: count number of days between the dates, and divide ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Cumulants of variance gamma with stochastic arrival (VGSA) model

The characteristic function of the VGSA model is defined as a specific parameterization of the characteristic function of the CIR (Cox-Ingersol-Ross mean reverting process) time-change: $ ...
0
votes
0answers
51 views

One Way CSA Agreements

This is probably an older topic but I don't seem to find any related threads on this forum. What is the best way to value, let's say, a vanilla IR swap (you receive fixed) that you trade against a ...
0
votes
0answers
35 views

Compute stock price probability distribution from option data (IB method & negative probabilities issue)

I'm using a procedure as described in the interactive brokers article here (https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=5910&ns=T) to compute a probability distribution from option (call) ...
3
votes
3answers
362 views

Sources of index data (MSCI, FTSE, S&P etc.)?

Who are the major suppliers of index data that cover multiple index providers, e.g. MSCI, FTSE, S&P etc? There are a huge number of people sourcing e.g. equity data, but index data is much harder ...
2
votes
3answers
675 views

Daily option data

I am wondering where I can pull daily (hourly, by-the-minute, etc. even better) option data for a particular underlying. I would prefer a database I could scrape through and API, but would not mind ...
0
votes
0answers
50 views

How can i build a portfolio of n assets that maximizes sortino ratio?

I want to construct a portfolio of n assets that maximizes the Sortino ratio. I want to use SOCP for the optimization but cannot formulate the Sortino ratio as a SOCP problem. How can I do this?
1
vote
1answer
72 views

Should a strategy backtested against three years of tick data continue to produce positive results?

Let's say we have a Binary Options 5-minute trading strategy that relies on multiple indicators and exploits price reversals in currency pairs. Now let's say there is a combination of inputs for the ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

impact model what volatility to use

I am looking at the market impact paper here (http://www.cims.nyu.edu/~almgren/papers/costestim.pdf) and I had a question about volatility on page 11. On page 11 it is stated: "For volatility, we use ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as substitute benchmark bonds

"The reduction seen in US government debt in the late 1990s has led to a redution in the supply of intermediate and long-term government bonds, and some concern has arisen over this fact. In the ...
0
votes
1answer
151 views

Parameters for numerically fitting t-distribution to log-returns

I am fitting the t-distribution to log-returns numerically (not using R, MATLAB, Stata, etc.), but rather using general programming. Assuming the log-return values are $r_t$, and the $t$-variates are ...
0
votes
1answer
91 views

How to calculate confidence interval for option price?

I model option prices for European call using Monte Carlo method. What is the proper way to calculate the confidence interval? A. -> Calculate the payoffs (there will be number of zeros as some ...
1
vote
1answer
86 views

How to calculate weight of two stocks without knowing their correlation?

I have difficulty to solve attached question. The question asks me to find new weight of stocks by just changing standard deviation of the portfolio. I really do not have any idea how to solve it. ...
2
votes
1answer
85 views

Why is my Euler discretization error increasing with number of steps?

I'm trying to see how the Euler discretization error behaves with respect to the number of steps. To do this I'm simulating a geometric brownian motion and comparing it with it's 'exact' solution. ...
0
votes
0answers
139 views

Forecasting conditional mean in ARMA-GARCH model (R/Matlab)

I am trying to forecast the conditional mean from a ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model. The mean equation in my model is: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + h_t \epsilon_t$ where x is the variable (a return ...
0
votes
0answers
8 views

Seasonal ARIMA and choosing order

I've been reading quite a bit on SARIMA models and I'm still confused on a basic point - Do the seasonal and non-seasonal observations come from the SAME series? What I mean by this is, for example, ...

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