3
votes
0answers
177 views

PCA Variances and Principal Portfolio Variances

In Meucci's paper called "Managing Diversification" he mentions that: "Indeed, the eigenvalues A correspond to the variances of these uncorrelated portfolios" I tried to replicate it but found they ...
3
votes
2answers
277 views

How do you know if if an option is priced correctly?

Besides obvious extreme examples (ie volatility going to infinity, infinite time, zero time, or zero volatility, deep OTM/ITM ) how does one gauge if an option is 'correct' or at least in the ...
0
votes
0answers
54 views

earnings reports and option pricing

Let's assume that company XYZ reports earnings in a 0% interest rate environment and the option expires shortly after earnings. And there is a 50% chance the earnings are good (an upmove) and 50% bad ...
1
vote
1answer
120 views

Greeks of Basket

I am considering a product composed of 10 underlying assets. The maturity is 5 year. Each year if the performance of the equi-weighted portfolio reach a barrier, it pays a coupon. My question concern ...
8
votes
1answer
595 views

Quantitative before/after or financial engineering studies of a bid or ask tax?

Has anyone in the quantitative finance or financial engineering community studied the effects of a bid or ask tax with actual or simulated data? If so, what were the quantitative results or ...
2
votes
0answers
359 views

How to correctly construct a value- and equally weighted portfolio consisting of property-types?

A problem of which I couldn’t find the answer on the forum is about the construction of equally-weighted and value-weighted portfolio. I want to compute the equally-weighted property-type portfolio ...
2
votes
0answers
89 views

Benchmarking risk

Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

t-statistics for the mean return, using Newey-West standard errors

I have seen that in several papers, where the aim was to evaluate the performance of a certain investment strategy, they use t-statistics to test for significance in the results. However, this seems a ...
1
vote
1answer
273 views

How to download risk free rate?

I've been trying to download the national interest rates for some countries. When i use Datastream, it only gives me the currency return (while i need yield). Can someone please tell how to ...
4
votes
2answers
451 views

How do I determine the maturity date from a T-bill's CUSIP?

Is there a way to determine a government bill's or bond's maturity date by looking at its CUSIP? For example, the CUSIP for US T-Bills with a maturity of 12/1/11 is 9127953V1. As you probably know, ...
4
votes
1answer
181 views

Ito's Lemma - Integrand depends on upper limit of integration

A problem I came across while practicing using Ito's Lemma had a process with an integral whose integrand depends on the upper limit of integration (the goal is to find $dZ_{t}$): ...
2
votes
0answers
91 views

What does negative gamma mean in APGARCH model?

I got a gamma of -0.1321677. ...
1
vote
2answers
142 views

Statistics of difference between two GBMs

if I have two asset prices modeled separately as geometric brownian motions. How do i go about calculating the expected statistics of their difference? Like given the sigmas and mus of both processes, ...
1
vote
0answers
117 views

Modelling long run relationship between dividend and earnings

I am working on a paper where I have to model the long run relationship between earnings and dividends. I have downloaded the raw data from shillers website. I have converted the series to ...
14
votes
5answers
6k views

Python library for Portfolio Optimization

Does anyone know of a python library/source that is able to calculate the traditional mean-variance portfolio? To press my luck, any resources where the library/source also contains functions such as ...
2
votes
1answer
462 views

Get intraday data of SAP with google Finance

According to this link I try to get intraday data of SAP listed at Xetra. Intraday data with timestep of 1 second would be great. I do not understand parts of the command, I try ...
3
votes
1answer
172 views

Auto-correlation of GBM

The GBM is defined by $ dS(t) = \mu S(t)dt + \sigma S(t) dW_t, $ with analytical solution $ S(t^\prime) = S(t) ...
1
vote
1answer
121 views

How to deal with different amount of td's in computing Sharpe Ratio

In calculating the Sharpe Ratio, should I take into account the days were I have 0 return due to non-trading day? Another user posted a similar question but this was related to trading days with no ...
3
votes
2answers
182 views

Iterating through every path of a Trinomial Tree

I am attempting to come up with an algorithm to iterate through every possible path of a trinomial tree and am having difficulties coming up with one. Is there any literature on this or has anyone ...
6
votes
10answers
2k views

Using Black-Scholes equations to “buy” stocks

From what I understand, Black-Scholes equation in finance is used to price options which are a contract between a potential buyer and a seller. Can I use this mathematical framework to "buy" a stock? ...
2
votes
1answer
639 views

Value at Risk Monte-Carlo using Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD)

I have created a VBA program to calculate VaR by using Monte Carlo, I have simulated Brownian Motion. This method might be ok for 100% equity portfolio, but let's say this portfolio may have fixed ...
14
votes
7answers
10k views

Is the Interactive Brokers API suitable for hft?

By hft here I mean anything with holding period less than 5-10mins... Any empirical/anecdotal evidence of using it successfully on even higher frequencies?
1
vote
1answer
354 views

Testing Significance of Correlation

Lets say I have the returns of two stocks(stock1 and stock2). Now without running a regression, I lag one of the variables, calculate the correlation between the two stocks and repeat this process as ...
3
votes
2answers
409 views

Software for backtesting outside strategies (CSV transaction upload)

I've developed some software which generates sets of trades, and I'd like to backtest those trades. My software currently outputs a CSV file with details of each trade: ...
0
votes
2answers
353 views

Regression with Lagged variables

I am new to regression analysis. Let's say initially I have a linear regression x = alag(x1) + blag(x2) + clag(x3) -- eq 1 I want to predict the price x based on the the price of x from previous ...
5
votes
2answers
176 views

How does the number of free dimensions of a model affect its required size of sample?

Adding more variables to a model usually increases its accuracy. However, without adequate analysis it could also lead to curve fitting. Another question (How much data is needed to validate a ...
2
votes
1answer
135 views

OTC Equity Options' Dynamics

This only applies to options that do not have marketable equivalents since margin can be marked to them. I've never been able to find this on my goog. How is margin typically calculated for OTC ...
0
votes
2answers
149 views

monthly contract volume required for penny increments?

Have the exchanges disclosed their criteria? Does anyone have a best guess based upon observations of volume (however you wish to define it)? Please no qualitative answers.
0
votes
2answers
147 views

changes in open interest vs changes in underlying volume

Has a relationship been noted? Mostly, I'd like to know if the open interest increases on an underlying, does the underlying usually see increased trading? My guess would be "yes" since MMs can ...
0
votes
1answer
105 views

Regression extensions

I'm trying to find extensions for my regression and obviously would like to use PE, BV and CFO. But I've got monthly data, while all company's fundamentals are semi-annually... Can I deal with it ...
0
votes
2answers
421 views

What information do stock exchange colocated servers have access to?

In high frequency and low latency trading, decisions are done on the spot by servers colocated in stock exchanges. This implies that those servers have immediate access to the information they need to ...
1
vote
1answer
711 views

High-Frequency Traders and Front Running: What order types are they using? [closed]

I often hear in the news that High-Frequency Traders can front-run incoming trades because they are faster at acquiring information and to execute trades. I also read that speed is only a necessary ...
10
votes
2answers
305 views

Stochastic modelling of derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are common stochastic ...
1
vote
1answer
183 views

Testing Black Scholes Analytical Options Pricer

I've written some code to calculate European option prices using the Black-Scholes analytical method. Can somebody recommend a good way to test that code? I have looked at option pricers online like ...
1
vote
0answers
79 views

Risk factors for derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are the main risk ...
2
votes
0answers
373 views

Does the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have stationary variance?

I know that the long run variance of the standard OU process is $\lim_{s\rightarrow \infty}\mbox{Var}(P_{t+s}|P_t) = \frac{\sigma^2}{2\theta}$ I'm using the geometric version of the process. I ...
14
votes
2answers
1k views

From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
0
votes
1answer
99 views

Assessing Forcasting with Correlated Residuals

Trying to use a linear regression model to forcast the CPI. I noticed that when I took a moving average of the residuals, though homsokedatisc and nonautocorrelated(ie they squiggle up&down with ...
3
votes
3answers
485 views

YTM and current yield

Which of the following statements is correct? a. If a bond’s yield to maturity exceeds its coupon rate, the bond’s current yield must also exceed its coupon rate. b. If a bond’s yield to maturity ...
2
votes
2answers
177 views

Portfolio risk-return when assets have limited and inconsistent historical data / time series?

Lets say we have "today's" snapshot of asset allocation and need to determine the 6mo, 1 yr and 5 yr risk and returns of this portfolio. If the time series for every asset is very long, longer than ...
1
vote
2answers
366 views

What is the instantaneous P&L of a Variance Swap?

What is the instantaneous P&L of a variance swap. Is it $(\sigma^{2}_{t}-\sigma^{2}_{implied})dt$?
6
votes
3answers
1k views

What really drives option implied volatility?

A common and oft repeated belief regarding options volatility is that implied volatility increases due to people bidding up a contract, usually related to anticipation of the outcome of an expected ...
4
votes
2answers
240 views

How to reactivate a risk mangement rule in an automated process

If some conditions are met (stop loss, trailing stop, take profit...) we will close ours positions (sell/buy) to avoid having more loss or to ensure profit. In an automatic trading system, it is easy ...
0
votes
1answer
87 views

What is the meaning of the discounted process defined from the interest rate process?

Assume a money market has interest rate process $R(t)$. In Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance II, formula (5.2.17) on page 215 defines the discounted process as $$ D(t) = e^{-\int_0^t R(s) ds}. ...
3
votes
1answer
242 views

Where can I get historical ticker change database?

There's 30 days worth of data at http://www.otcmarkets.com/marketActivity/symbol-changes - but I'm really looking for the past 10 years, or 5 years if only that is possible. Any dice? The closest ...
3
votes
3answers
648 views

Does implied vol vary for calls vs puts?

Volatility skew tells us that options with the same maturity at different strikes can have different implied vol. However, can a corresponding call and put for the same strike and maturity have ...
2
votes
1answer
314 views

Calculating the probability of a price change using an options pricing formula

I don't know if I'm doing this right and I'd greatly appreciate help. I'm trying to use an option pricing formula to backout the likelihood of the Euro dropping below $1.27, even for a minute, at any ...
11
votes
1answer
280 views

Are BSDE's used in practice?

In the academic applied probability/math finance community, Backwards Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE's) are extremely popular, and they provide a single framework for several different ...
4
votes
1answer
178 views

Hedging with actual volatility: problem understanding the math behind the result

From this paper. page 3 We get that the total profit at expiration is the difference in value between the price of the option with actual volatility and the one with implied volatility. I have tried ...
0
votes
0answers
280 views

Mean Reverting Spread

I have constructed a mean reverting spread using two indexes. I know they have to be mean reverting, but when plotted side by side they are mean reverting for a little bit and then deviate and head ...

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