All Questions

168 views

Technical analysis - Calculating Aroon Indicator Serie

I'm trying to build a class to create Aroon series. But it seems I don't understand the steps well. I'm not sure about what purpose I have to use the period parameter. Here is my first attempt: ...
56 views

Confused on interpretation of betas/alphas in regression in finance

I ran a regression on two stocks. I don't have the data in front of me, but it is a more conceptual question. Let's say SP500 returned a total 23% return over this time period and MSFT returned ...
236 views

Binomial tree vs trinomial tree in pricing options

Very new to pricing models. Is there a general guideline when to use binomial tree and when trinomial tree is preferred? As far as I know, unlike binomial tree, trinomial tree only gives a range ...
130 views

Time-independent local volatility

Suppose somebody provides us with a surface of European call prices $C(\tau,K)$ where $\tau$ stands for time-to-maturity and $K$ for the strike. By Dupire's results, there is a unique local volatility ...
24 views

A problem involving random walks from Shreve

Problem 5.4i in Shreve examines a symmetric random walk. Let $\tau_2$ be the first time that the random walk reaches 2. For $\alpha\in (0, 1)$, we are given that E [\alpha ^ {\tau_2}] =\sum_{k = ...
25 views

use of recurrence quantification analysis for deterministic signal identification and classification

The recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) is a method of nonlinear data analysis which quantifies the number and duration of recurrences of a dynamical system presented by its state space ...
141 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
54 views

Finding historical data monthly data [duplicate]

Where can I find historical data for WTI Price, gold price, CRB index for my research work? Is there any website from where I can download these data?
91 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
412 views

How to create a model or formula for evaluating trade opportunities

I want to build a formula to produce a score for a potential trade based on 4 variables, time, return, liquidity of security, and probability of failure. For a set of potential trades I first ...
157 views

Get market cap by ticker on 1.7.2013?

I have a list of all S&P500 tickers, e.g. AAPL, GOOG, JPM. I would like to get their market cap on 1.7.2013 (I don't have Bloomberg, only free internet). Is there an excel addin or other ...
265 views

Method for finding a arbitrage opportunity when market price of call is incorrect

The solution of the Black-scholes equation is the price of a European call. And the option price assumes the underlying stock is a geometric Brownian motion with volatility $\sigma_{1}>0$. ...
80 views

What are good online resources for credit portfolio managers?

I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find any site/forum/wiki, where credit portfolio managers hang out to share their experience and their methods. ...
169 views

Futures fair value with spot in different currency

The fair value, $F$, for a futures contract is $F = S(1+rt) - D,$ where $S$ is the underlying spot price, $r$ is the interest rate, $t$ is the time to maturity, and $D$ is the dividends. What is ...
207 views

Is implied volatility flawed?

Was going through how Implied Volatility is used by option traders and in delta hedging. Correct me if I am wrong, doesn't IV consider a standard deviation of the stock price over say the past 1 year? ...
3k views

Are there comprehensive analyses of theta decay in weekly options?

Are there comprehensive analyses of how much theta a weekly options loses in a day, per day? I know what the shape of theta decay looks like, in theory, where the decay towards zero happens more ...
319 views

Intermarket analysis - related time series?

I'm about to embark on training a neural network on daily forex data, with a view to obtaining a predictive network. I'm also interested in using data other than the forex currency pair data itself, ...
52 views

How to calibrate volatility surface for Interest Rate Cap&Floor pricing

I'm using Black model to do interest rate Cap & Floor pricing. The volatility is determined by using the bootstrapping methodology. However, afterwards, how should I do the calibration, or ...
2k views

What is the price pressure?

What is the definition of price pressure and what does it imply? In a number of paper I read that the price pressure can influence the portfolio returns; can you explain why and in which way it can ...
117 views

What are recent important papers on credit portfolio risk modeling?

I'm interested in papers which consider mathematical models of risks of different portfolios of retail credit. This is not my area of research, so I may be misusing some terms. The idea is simple: I ...
69 views

Discount Curve built-up

For a particular currency, let's say for USD, I'd like to know how to construct a discount curve? I've an impression that one professor told me that for USD, less than 3 months, it's using Libor ...
208 views

Rich Volatility, Poor Volatility

I have been thinking very hard about properly pricing volatility. Outside of naive AR,ARCH,GARCH forecasting model which employs past data to forecast future vol, how does one "fundamentally" value ...
33 views

computation involving independent increments [closed]

One can rather easily show that E[$\sum_{i = 0}^{i = n - 1}W_{t_i}(W_{t_{i + 1}} - W_{t_i})]$ = -T + $W_T^2$. What I'm confused about is why we can't simply say that for each i, $W_{t_{i}}$ is ...
252 views

Commonly used vol surface calibration model in the industry

I have 2 questions: What is the most commonly used equity option pricing model? I learned jump diffusion at school, read about Hensen and a few other models online. I am actually only calibrating ...
353 views

Can Hurst exponent be used to characterize nonlinear dependence in time series?

It appears to me that the answer is no, because Hurst exponent measures persistence in terms of autocorrelation, which is a linear measure. So even if a time series of asset returns is driven by ...
73 views

KeyError in Python code used to determine a trade signal for Pair Trading

I'm basically running some code as follows. Basically I'm just retrieving pairs of stocks (laid out as Row 1-Stock 1,2, Row 2-Stock 1,2 and so on, where Stock 1 and 2 are different in each row) from a ...
160 views

Why is IV different between put and call of same strike

In his book 'Dynamic Hedging' Nassim Taleb says that the volatility of an OTM put should be exactly equal to that of a corresponding in the money call of same strike. But in option chains, the ...
80 views

Calibration of Heston version of CIR

I'd like to calibrate a variant of Heston model for interest rates which is describe by this couple of SDE \begin{aligned}dr_t&=a(b-r_t)+\sqrt{r_t}\sigma_t dW_t^1 \\ ...
54 views

Value-at-Risk of the sum of three independent lognormal random variables with different confidence level

there are three Business units in a firm, each has operational VaR value which are independent from eachother. the quantile for each opVaR is different from the others. can I simply add the VaRs to ...
139 views

What is the use of options pricing formulas

This may seem like a dumb question, but if the EMH is generally true, wouldn't options already be correctly priced? Why do we need all these intricate formulas, unless we think the prices are wrong or ...
144 views

rollapply with Arima model: testing for stability of coefficients

I am trying to fit an arima model on a rolling window using rollapply.My aim is to plot a graph of the evolution of the coefficient, plot the error and the standard deviation. well i encountered the ...
45 views

Value-at-Risk - Currency Swap

Can someone explain to me how to calculate the VaR (delta-normal-method) for a Currency Swap? Thanks in advance. Regards Alexander
88 views

“Extract” the density of the underlying, given the implied volatility “surface”

Suppose given implied volatility quotations $\widehat{\sigma}(T_i,K_j)$ of call options on an underlying $S$ for various expiries $T_i$'s and strikes $K_j$'s. I am interested in the following problem ...
179 views

How to price an option on a dividend-paying stock using the binomial model?

This is actually an exercise from a course. But I don't completely understand the wording of the question. A stock is now trading at 100 dollars. Its price over the next 6 months evolves as a two ...
189 views

Why is the LIBOR-market model free of arbitrage?

Recently I have been reading a lot on the market models. One thing that keeps escaping me - why is the Libor-market model (LMM) assumed to e free of aritrage in continuous time ? To me this means ...
101 views

is there an accepted method for quantifying risk of inaccuracy of nascent trm systems?

Have a somewhat meta question here. I am part of a trading risk management implementation project. I also manage day to day risk reporting to management and the trading desks. Our implementation was ...
35 views

Distribution of running maximums of a log normal process

I've been searching for quite some time and would appreciate any guidance! What I'm looking for is the distribution of running maximums for a log-normal process. If anyone is familiar with any ...
24 views

Complete Multiperiod Binomial model

I have the following deifnition of a Complete multiperiod binomial model: A multi period binomial model can be called complete if every derivative security can be replicated by trading in the ...
104 views

Using Black-Scholes to price a geometric average price call

Sorry if this is the wrong exchange for this question. It seems to be the most relevant, anyway. I'm trying to learn and understand the Black-Scholes framework, with a focus on the stochastic ...
36 views

Replication of the portfolio in single step binomial model

I would be grateful if anyone would comment how to construct this: Assume $S_{i}^k$ is a stock price at time level $i$ and at price level $k$. Assume option is written on $S$ with a a payoff ...
48 views

Dynamic Hedging for a Bond

Sorry if this question is duplicate. Analyzing the scenario to hedge bond credit risk with CDS. but if Bond price changes CDS notional will not change. is there any way i can hedge this ?
40 views

Portfolio of Assets

The following represents a model for an economy. At time $t=0$, four assets have the value $X_1= £5$, $X_2=£5$, $X_3=£10$ and $X_4=£4$. Three possible states of the world exist ($\alpha_1$, ...
593 views

The future language of quant programming? [closed]

Im just about to begin the programming aspect of my education towards being a Quant. I know what languages are currently being used and how popular they are. However, I have several good friends ...
158 views

matlab interpretation of johansen cointegration test

I need some help understanding the results of Johansen Cointegration test run on MATLAB. I am quite new to econometrics and do not fully comprehend what MATLAB has come up with. I would be really in ...
153 views

Observed market price for the August-Greece-paid bonds were the NPV of the bond or of an option?

The bonds which Greece has paid had been valued by market as junk once, just before their payment. Given that the observed market value is the net present value of the instrument, why were they so ...
8k views

How are cryptography and speech recognition technology applied to forecasting financial markets?

One of the answers to my previous question regarding the strategy of Renaissance Technologies, there was a reference to The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly ...
52 views

Order routing: correlation of having same exchange for buy and sell

I am not familiar with the technicalities of order routing so my main sources of information as of now is the sec gov trade execution info and an explanation of how SOR works. Question 1: Let's ...
133 views

comparing modified VaR to ordinary VaR

What inferences can one draw when given a modified VaR at x% confidence and an ordinary VaR at x% confidence level. If the two are equal one inference can be that returns are gaussian but that also ...