1
vote
0answers
35 views

Cumulants of variance gamma with stochastic arrival (VGSA) model

The characteristic function of the VGSA model is defined as a specific parameterization of the characteristic function of the CIR (Cox-Ingersol-Ross mean reverting process) time-change: $ \mathbb{E}e^...
2
votes
1answer
36 views

Translating dates to times

I am using Act/365 day-count convention. How do I compute the time offset between 2/28/2015 and 3/1/2016? 3/1/2017 Some ideas: Direct day count: count number of days between the dates, and divide ...
0
votes
0answers
66 views

One Way CSA Agreements

This is probably an older topic but I don't seem to find any related threads on this forum. What is the best way to value, let's say, a vanilla IR swap (you receive fixed) that you trade against a ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Compute stock price probability distribution from option data (IB method & negative probabilities issue)

I'm using a procedure as described in the interactive brokers article here (https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=5910&ns=T) to compute a probability distribution from option (call) ...
4
votes
1answer
123 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...
5
votes
2answers
194 views

How to derive this approximation of the risk-neutral expectation of the variance?

On the paper Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009 RFS) the authors say about equation (15): The corresponding model implied risk-neutral conditional expectation $$E^Q_t(\sigma^2_{r,t+1})=E_t(\...
1
vote
1answer
76 views

Should a strategy backtested against three years of tick data continue to produce positive results?

Let's say we have a Binary Options 5-minute trading strategy that relies on multiple indicators and exploits price reversals in currency pairs. Now let's say there is a combination of inputs for the ...
1
vote
1answer
119 views

Estimating profit/loss of a Gold Futures option using Theta and Gamma

HELP! I am trying to find how much the underlying price of a gold futures option must move in order to breakeven on owning an option for a day. I was hoping someone versed in pricing options could ...
1
vote
2answers
97 views

How does stock buy back increase RoA of a company?

In one of the videos in Youtube which explained about stock buy backs, it was told that companies can achieve higher Return on Assets by doing stock buy backs. The explanation went like this :- When a ...
0
votes
0answers
193 views

Forecasting conditional mean in ARMA-GARCH model (R/Matlab)

I am trying to forecast the conditional mean from a ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model. The mean equation in my model is: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + h_t \epsilon_t$ where x is the variable (a return ...
1
vote
1answer
91 views

How to calculate weight of two stocks without knowing their correlation?

I have difficulty to solve attached question. The question asks me to find new weight of stocks by just changing standard deviation of the portfolio. I really do not have any idea how to solve it. ...
0
votes
0answers
10 views

Seasonal ARIMA and choosing order

I've been reading quite a bit on SARIMA models and I'm still confused on a basic point - Do the seasonal and non-seasonal observations come from the SAME series? What I mean by this is, for example, (...
0
votes
1answer
28 views

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as substitute benchmark bonds

"The reduction seen in US government debt in the late 1990s has led to a redution in the supply of intermediate and long-term government bonds, and some concern has arisen over this fact. In the ...
0
votes
0answers
51 views

How can i build a portfolio of n assets that maximizes sortino ratio?

I want to construct a portfolio of n assets that maximizes the Sortino ratio. I want to use SOCP for the optimization but cannot formulate the Sortino ratio as a SOCP problem. How can I do this?
0
votes
1answer
107 views

How to calculate confidence interval for option price?

I model option prices for European call using Monte Carlo method. What is the proper way to calculate the confidence interval? A. -> Calculate the payoffs (there will be number of zeros as some ...
0
votes
0answers
28 views

Slippage as Transaction Cost

What is a best procedure when to include/not include slippage into a trading model. If you include it in high freuency trading style model, you never make money because slippage eats away all your ...
3
votes
0answers
110 views

Order Book Dynamics

I have been following this paper: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.4596.pdf The model is especially pertinent as I only have access to L1 data. The model is clear and intuitive and I have implemented the ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Return, STD and CAPM based on Continuously compound return on daily prices

Mission: For some ETF, Get 1, 3, 5 years: Return STD CAPM parameters (alpha, beta) Reference if I calculated correctly: Yahoo finance performance & risk data Raw data: Daily adj. close ...
4
votes
1answer
144 views

How to use the Girsanov theorem to prove $\hat{W_t}$ is a $\hat{\mathbb P}$-Brownian motion?

Let $T > 0$, and let $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}, \mathbb P)$ be a filtered probability space where $\mathbb P = \tilde{\mathbb P}$ (risk-neutral measure) and $\mathscr F_t ...
0
votes
0answers
90 views

Skewed Generalized Error Distribution in GARCH modelling

I am trying to estimate GARCH models with the use of Theodossiou's (2000) Skewed Generalized Error Distribution. I am modifying matlab's ARMAX-GARCH-K toolbox to calculate this model. I am calculating ...
1
vote
1answer
68 views

Path Dependent Options - Which choice of model?

Can someone please help elaborate/clarify the below statements? I've heard about them from people but would like to know some more detail behind these statements.. - 1) SABR is not useful in pricing ...
3
votes
2answers
145 views

Sharpe Ratio : why the normalization factor?

I try to understand why a $\sqrt{252}$ normalization factor is useful for Sharpe Ratio: Let's compute the Sharpe Ratio for this imaginary portfolio, for various sampling periods: ...
4
votes
2answers
254 views

How to trade leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs (LETFs) are known to lose value over time due to the "volatility decay" effect. What're the most common strategies for trading LETFs to take advantage of this volatility effect? Also, ...
5
votes
1answer
275 views

Central bank interest rates: are they quoted annualized?

After a little research on interest rates of different countries I figured out that they are more complicated than I thought and the meaning of them varies country by country. For example, the U.S. ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Including intercept and trend in ADF of differenced series

When specifying that the trend and/or intercept be included in the ADF output, does the trend/intercept election follow through to the ADF tests of differenced data as well? To clarify further, I ...
0
votes
1answer
85 views

What is the current state of microstructure/order book analysis?

I know it's a broad question, but I'm curious as to the current state of microstructure analysis, specifically whether there's anything 'actionable' that people have discovered. Would also be ...
1
vote
1answer
73 views

Double no touch option with four barriers

The double no touch (also known as a range binary) is an option with two American barriers. You define one barrier above the underlying asset and one below it. If during the option's lifetime the ...
1
vote
0answers
14 views

Which rate have to be considered by using multiliteral netting?

I do have a netting structure consisting of four companies (A,B,C,D) and a netting center. The center also takes place in the netting process. The netting center uses the EUR as currency. Company A ...
3
votes
1answer
336 views

ARMA+GARCH prediction with package rugarch (R)

I am analyzing FTSE 100 series, from 2007-01-01 to 2010-12-31 (university exam homework). I have to use the data 'til 2010-11-30 as sample, and the remaining (23) observations as in-sample forecast (...
3
votes
0answers
111 views

Is Low-Volatility expensive these days? How can we analyze this?

Low volatility investing became somewhat fashionable in recent years. In general there are two approaches to this Ranking stocks of a certain universe by either stand-alone volatility or by beta and ...
1
vote
1answer
186 views

Long Forward Rate Agreement, short Eurodollar futures

For this question If you are long a FRA and short a ED future with the same fixing dates, do you have positive convexity or negative convexity? The answer is positive convexity, because a ...
3
votes
1answer
128 views

Log-likelihood of skew-t distribution

I am trying to estimate GARCH models with the use of Hansen's (1994) skew-t distribution. I am using matlab's ARMAX-GARCH-K toolbox, where the log-likelihood is calculated as: ...
1
vote
1answer
45 views

Value at risk in dollars vs. log returns

I have a quick question about this remark in Tsay's book "Analysis of Financial Time Series" (3rd edition). He says that $$ \text{dollar VaR} = \text{Value} \times \text{log return VaR} $$ and that ...
1
vote
0answers
89 views

Simulating Option Positions VaR with Monte Carlo in Python

I'm trying to calculate VaR for overall option positions. Currently I do a MC simulation for the underlying, and derive the theoretical value of the option from those theoretically. Then I calculate ...
1
vote
0answers
40 views

Where can I find bonds time series?

I want to study dependence and correlation between bonds and CDS. I have already found a large CDS database of time series there: www.datagrapple.com I am looking for such a similar database (with an ...
3
votes
2answers
127 views

Confusion on stationarity vs deterministic trend

Sorry for the newbie inquiry but I'm having a little trouble making sense of stationarity and how a the presence of a time trend impacts this. I'm working on a model for operating margins and as a ...
3
votes
1answer
328 views

Bloomberg data redistribution policy

I've looked through the Bloomberg website, but haven't found any information about available license plans. I'm curious whether it provides any license that allows you to re-distribute data requested ...
1
vote
2answers
35 views

Why to 2 methods to calculate bond price with semi annual return give different answers?

I am confused as 2 methods give different answers. The difference lies in the "to the power" numbers for discounting. Example: 2 year semi annual bond (4 periods), $1m annual Coupon Payment, 5% Yield ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Interest rate: Treasury Note, Stripped Principal

Ok, So I'm a little confused about this. I want to solve an exercise and derive an optimal product, but in order to do that, I need the interest rates for each of the maturities of my options. I ...
6
votes
0answers
193 views

How should option prices differ when using the Heston versus the Black-Scholes model?

I am running Monte Carlo simulations for a European Call using Heston Model and I am trying to compare them with prices calculated using Black-Scholes formula. I am not quite sure if the prices I get ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views

Show that being Long a caplet & short floorlet (both with strike price K) is equivalent to a FRA where you pay the fixed rate K

How do you show that being long a caplet and short a floorlet (both with strike K) is equivalent to a Forward Rate Agreement where you pay the fixed rate K?
0
votes
1answer
86 views

Price of a Stock: What is it?

My limited understanding of stock prices is that according to theoretical arguments, the price of an asset is generally given as:$$P_{A}=E_{0}\,\sum_{t=0}^{\infty}\frac{C_{t}}{(1+r)^{t}}$$ whereby $...
0
votes
1answer
199 views

Transforming daily simple returns into weekly

I am trying to transform daily simple returns into weekly returns. I am using the following R code: ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

Through the Cycle calibration of PD values

It is a known fact that default rates seem to exhibit cyclic behavior. Most probability of default models use one-year averages of default rates to calibrate the models. The one-year averages should ...
4
votes
2answers
323 views

Data exported from Capital IQ, FactSet, Bloomberg, Compustat

I'm looking for reliable data on US equity fundamentals, but not sure which vendor provides these features: Unlimited data export Coverage of disbanded entities (bankruptcies, M&A) Financial ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

PPPN: premium with real market data

A few days ago, I posted a question about PPPN's (partially principal protected notes), which can be found here:PPPN: participation rate, stocks and premium. A PPPN in short is a structured product ...
1
vote
2answers
180 views

Trading Interview Question (Bullish, Bearish)?

I recently had a trading interview, and they asked this question. However, I had no idea how to answer it, and I was wondering if you could help me undersatnd it. Say you have a set of returns ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

Variable coupon Step up Step down bond

How do you price a variable step up step down coupon bond? From my understanding the coupon schedule should already be laid out and these should ideally have a call feature. However, I do have a bond ...
0
votes
1answer
46 views

Please help me with this problem of double exponential distribution

please help me with this problem of double exponential distribution
0
votes
1answer
40 views

Is Eurodollar borrowing close substitute for Fed funds borrowing?

It is often stated that eurodollar borrowing is clost substitute for Fed funds borrowing. In other words, when US banks cannot fund themselves domestically, they might go to the eurodollar market and ...

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