2
votes
0answers
56 views

Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
2
votes
1answer
47 views

Question about historical volatility ranking

I have seen this strategy example, which uses garch in a regime switching context: https://systematicinvestor.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/trading-using-garch-volatility-forecast/ The author classifies ...
0
votes
1answer
20 views

Effective & Maturity Date Modified Following

I am constructing discount curve for tenor 1 month. First Instrument - PLN_1M_WIBOR has Effective Date on 2015-01-29 (spot). I was wondering what Maturity Date should be? 2015-02-27 or 2015-03-02? I ...
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Forward Curves and Par Yield Curves

I'm recently reading a research paper on the yield curve by Salomon brothers and in it it states that when the forward curve is above the par yield curve, it is seen as cheaper. If for example, the ...
3
votes
2answers
190 views

Does higher vega imply higher IV and vice versa

If an option A has higher vega than option B, does that also mean that A has a higher IV than B? I understand that by definition, a higher vega means that A's price is more sensitive to its IV than B. ...
2
votes
1answer
44 views

If an option went down in value, how much is due to theta decay and how much due to fall in IV

Let us say that there was a stock trading at 100 and the 105 call was trading at 3 $. with 1 month to go Now stock went up to 104 after 15 days, and the call dropped to 2.80 $, to the call buyer's ...
2
votes
1answer
59 views

How to estimate CVA by valuing a CDS of the counterparty?

I'm trying to estimate CVA of one of my derivatives by valuing a credit default swap (CDS) of my counterparty. However, I don't know how to set up the CDS deal (notional amount, maturity, etc.). ...
0
votes
1answer
26 views

Pricing of a call option in one period binomial model

You are given a $5\%$ call option worth $\$2.66$. The strike price $k$ is $\$41.00$. $S(0)=40$, $Sd=35$ (i.e the lower price of the stock at $t=1$) find $Su$ (i.e the high price of the stock at ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

Amortizing Bond QuantLibXL

I would ask if anybody knows how to do get the NPV of an amortizing bond with QuantLibXL in the most automated way. I found some solutions but are very close to a manual calc, say, pass the vector of ...
0
votes
1answer
49 views

Equity Chart - design and granularity

I am looking to build a web based Equity chart to display performance of FX trading strategies. I would like to hear opinions and advice on a few areas that I am unsure about. Granularity Equity ...
1
vote
1answer
17 views

Are CME security id's unique and constant over time?

For any given day, CME security IDs are unique - a number will always refer to a single product. Are they unique over time as well? That is, might a new security have a security id that used to be ...
3
votes
2answers
208 views

What is the yield on an infinitely lived ZCB?

I guess the price of a Zero-Coupon Bond with infinite maturity should go to zero, what about its yield? I am asking this because I was dealing with the yield curve and its asymptotic properties when ...
1
vote
1answer
22 views

What is the strike of a short put that mimics a covered call

If I am long a stock $X$ which I purchased at $\$100$ and sold a covered call in the front month with strike $\$105$ for $\$2$ then is it true that the covered call is equivalent to a naked put at ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Please recommend a book regarding Monte Carlo simulation in OAS

I couldn't find a book that explains in details how to use Monte Carlo Simulation to generate a number of interest rate scenarios. And then based on the interest rate scenarios, how to calculate the ...
4
votes
1answer
89 views

How to approximate the time to mean reversion for implied volatility

Given an option and its implied volatility, and also the mean value of the implied volatility over the last 30 days, if we find that the current IV is significantly (> 1 std dev.) away from the mean, ...
1
vote
1answer
34 views

Desperate for help with simple derivative

Can someone help explain how differentiating the following with respect to $x$: $$ \frac{1}{2} \alpha \mathbf{x}^T \Sigma \mathbf{x} + (\mathbf{\mu} - R\mathbf{1})\mathbf{x} $$ Yields the following: ...
1
vote
2answers
54 views

Why a calendar spread is a preferred strategy in a low volatility period

What is it about a calendar spreadas opposed to other spreads(e.g vertical spread) that makes it such a popular strategy for a period of low implied volatility? Is it that when low volatility turns ...
1
vote
1answer
267 views

Excel to Java for Interactive brokers

I have a working excel workbook connected to Interactive brokers DDE API. I am struggling to upgrade to a more robust environment like Java. I tried to change it to ActiveX for Excel but the ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

Stock Returns Distribution in Heston Model

There is a paper by Dragulescu and Yakovenko (DY) in 2002 proposing a pdf for the stock returns in the Heston model. However, in a paper by Daniel, Bree and Joseph, they actually perform statistical ...
4
votes
1answer
209 views

How to compute greeks using the adjoint Monte Carlo approach?

Assume I have a stochastic ODE $$dS = a(S)dt + b(S)dW,$$ with Euler approximation $$\hat{S}_{n+1}=F_n(\hat{S}_n)=\hat{S}_n+a(\hat{S}_n)h+b(\hat{S}_n)Z_n\sqrt{h}.$$ This allows me to create sample ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

Why implied volatility is less for the back month option even though the back month option is more expensive

Why is the implied volatility of this option at the ATM strike (18$) greater in the front month (March) than in a further month (Oct). The Oct month has 43%, but the front month has 54%. Should not ...
0
votes
0answers
10 views

Will implied volatilities rise by same amount across time and across strikes in lieu of an earnings report or a news event

It is said that implied volatility of an option rises leading up to an earnings report or a pending news event like FDA trial, a possible takeover,elections(?) etc. My question is, implied volatility ...
1
vote
1answer
27 views

Does an Interest Rate Swap has a Vega component?

I am a bit confused on how you calculate vega for Interest Rate Swap. One argument is that IR Swap is a combination of fixed rate bond and floating rate bond. Since a bond has no vega component, IR ...
4
votes
3answers
133 views

Why is Brownian motion merely 'almost surely' continuous?

Why is Brownian motion required to be merely almost surely continuous instead of continuous? For example, this is stated as condition 2 in this article in section 1, Characterizations of the Wiener ...
2
votes
1answer
45 views

Markowitz Mean-Variance Implied Returns

What is the closed form solution for the following inverse Markowitz problem? Given a mean-variance optimized fully invested portfolio $X$, a risk aversion parameter $\lambda$ and a var-covar ...
0
votes
5answers
357 views

API-based equity screeners?

I know there are APIs from different brokers that allows you to trade and also obtain information about specific companies, but I wonder if there are equity/asset screeners that are API-based and can ...
1
vote
1answer
21 views

Proving there exists no arbitrage opportunities given 3 states and 2 assets

Assume there are 3 states of the world: w1, w2, and w3. Assume there are two assets: a risk-free asset returning Rf in each state, and a risky asset with Return R1 in state w1, R2 in state w2, and R3 ...
2
votes
2answers
56 views

hedging correlated instruments

If two instruments have a significant negative correlation but the percent change in the price of the instrument moving in positive direction is always more by a fraction than the one moving in ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

OIS & LIBOR swap

Why do people use OIS and LIBOR swap spread to compare/value bonds/derivatives? Why not just use US treasury?
4
votes
1answer
43 views

Term structure of default probabilities without market data

With the forthcoming new regulations, IFRS9, financial institutions will be required to model life time expected credit losses. Consequently, it is necessary to model the term structure of default ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views

Reducing multicollinearity in Arbitrage Pricing model

I am working on a test example where the idea is to come up with a model that predicts S&P500 returns using the 9 S&P subsectors(XLY,XLP,XLF,etc) as FACTORS.Now i know there exists ...
3
votes
1answer
123 views

How to get Black Scholes' Geometric Brownian Motion differential form form the closed form?

My instructor has mostly self contained notes, where our textbook is mostly a reference. She has it written that: $$S_t = S_0e^{(\mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2})t + \sigma W_t} \iff dS_t = S_t(\mu dt + ...
2
votes
2answers
78 views

Time-independent local volatility

Suppose somebody provides us with a surface of European call prices $C(\tau,K)$ where $\tau$ stands for time-to-maturity and $K$ for the strike. By Dupire's results, there is a unique local volatility ...
1
vote
1answer
228 views

ex ante tracking error correlation between funds

I have two portfolio's called Comb & Global. They both have the same investable universe lets says 3000 stocks & are measured against the same benchmark. So it is possible that both funds hold ...
1
vote
2answers
37 views

Incorrect characterization of spot rate?

Is the t in the red boxed $R(t,T)$ supposed to be the same as the S in the green boxed $R(S,T)$?
2
votes
0answers
92 views

Non-Negative Matrix Factorization - Estimating the Mean

How do you estimate the mean in a Non-Negative Matrix Factorization framework? It is obvious and well known how to estimate the covariance matrix, how ever I also need the estimated mean. I'm ...
2
votes
4answers
160 views

Copulas simply explained

I try to understand the basic idea of copulas, however I am still struggling and hope that someone can help me. I understood that in general a copula is a function which links several marginal ...
3
votes
2answers
180 views

Why an option has sometimes and implied volatility greater than 100%?

Sometimes, in an option chain, the implied volatility of an option is greater than 100% . How is this possible? I mean, it is possible for 100$ stock to increase more than 100%, but not decrease more ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Reputational Harm

How would you measure the reputational harm incurred on an individual by an organization. How is Market Pricing in the expected payout resulting from the law suit by an individual ? The news breaks ...
0
votes
1answer
26 views

What is the difference between a book value and a market value?

0 down vote favorite I would like to understand the following problem. A 2yr zero-coupon bond has an annual yield rate of 11% per year. A 4yr zero-coupon bond has an annual yield rate of 19% ...
1
vote
1answer
32 views

Delta-Gamma Neutral portfolio, derivation issue

Let $C$ be an option on an underlying $S$. I want to construct a portfolio $V$ using another asset $C_0$ such that the delta and the gamma of $V$ is the same as the delta/gamma of $C$, in order to ...
5
votes
3answers
102 views

Why does the volatility smile flatten as maturities increase?

First, I can't find a purely "financial" explanation for this. Also the only mathematical explanation I've found so far was using the large deviations theory, which is quite complex. Is there a ...
1
vote
0answers
25 views

forward curve and cap/floors in nowadays environment

I'm currently trying to get the implied volatility of a vanilla Euro floor with maturity 1Y with data from bloom. I have the price ( which is not supposed to take into account the first floorlet ...
1
vote
1answer
25 views

De-annualizing a target alpha return

apologies if this is not the correct place for this type of question, but I just want to confirm if the following de-annualization is correct. if a manager states that he will earn 200 bps of target ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Calculating the optimal portfolio for an investor with quadratic utility

The problem is from Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory by Back and can be found here. The relevant info from section 2.5 can be found here. Given that we have the Expected value and the variance of ...
1
vote
1answer
81 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
3
votes
2answers
64 views

Black Scholes: How does it help to transform uncertainty and still not be able to calculate a fair price?

Recapitulating the history of Black-Scholes: Nobody knows the fair price of options. Revolution: BS! You put in all the parameters and get a price -> A Nobel Prize for that one! Wait: Nobody knows ...
1
vote
0answers
68 views

Differential of stochastic term

Question 1: How does one come up with the equation in the red box below? It looks like some kind product rule, but I'm not sure how to apply Ito's lemma here. Bjork doesn't seem to explain it ...
6
votes
2answers
2k views

Fastest news feed APIs targeting high frequency trading?

The Dow Jones elementized news feed API seems to stand out but are there any other machine readable news feeds out there that provide very low latencies that high frequency operations may peruse? I am ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

Forecast 3m LIBOR USD. Budget purpose

How can I calculate/budget/find a expectation for the 3 month LIBOR for the next 3monts-4 years? I am calculating a CF scenario on USD 3month Libor + margin. With swaps and fixed rate this is easy, ...

15 30 50 per page