7
votes
3answers
9k views

Are public historical time series available for ratings of sovereign debt?

The nice list of free online data sources Data sources online does not mention any data from ratings agencies. Are historical time series available for sovereign credit ratings (other than as ...
16
votes
2answers
8k views

Cross Currency Swap Pricing in nowadays environment

Multicurve setting has now become the new paradigm for vanilla swap valuation. For the record I give here (without getting into too much details) the methodoloy for pricing Euribor3M swaps in this ...
14
votes
2answers
2k views

How to update an exponential moving average with missing values?

Say you have an Exponential Moving Average being continuously updated over a time series using 1-second-long time periods. What should happen if there is no value for the next second, e.g. there were ...
12
votes
2answers
1k views

When should you build your own equity risk model?

Commercial risk models (e.g., Barra, Axioma, Barclays, Northfield) have evolved to a very high level of sophistication. However, all of these models attempt to solve a very broad set of problems. ...
12
votes
2answers
1k views

Is there a popular curve fitting formula of options skew vs strike price or vs Delta?

I was trying to build a options trading/optimization system. But it often gets more inaccurate as it scans through the far from ATM options because, you know, options skews. That is because I did ...
11
votes
5answers
2k views

How to interpolate gaps in a time series using closely related time series?

I am trying to construct a daily time series of prices and returns for some large universe of securities. However, all I have available are a monthly time series of the prices/returns (as well as ...
10
votes
3answers
2k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views

Equity Risk Model Using PCA

I'm trying to build a simple risk model for stocks using PCA. I've noticed that when my dimensions are larger than the number of observations (for example 1000 stocks but only 250 days of returns), ...
8
votes
3answers
8k views

Trading C++ Libraries

Are there any free c++ libraries that would have some of the functions that would be used in developing a trading strategy. For instance, calculating drawdown, Volatility Forecasting, MAE, MFE....etc. ...
7
votes
1answer
15k views

How to interpret results of Johansen Test?

I have two time-series a & b. The objective is to find out whether two series are cointegrated or not. I am using Johansen Test in R to find this out. I am using urca package of R. Here is the ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Comparing MVO with Resampled Efficient Frontier

My question: How can I compare the Resampled Frontier (REF) to the standard MVO frontier when I have been provided with $\mu$, $\Omega$, and don't have access to true future data to test real out of ...
11
votes
1answer
1k views

So many volatility models. Any comparisons of them?

Are there any papers that make an explicit contrast/comparison of the following (or other) vol models in terms of the suitability for addressing some empirical problem? Wavelet multiresolution ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views

Difference between google finance and yahoo finance?

I am wondering about the huge differences of the data provider google finance and yahoo finance. I am interested in the monthly data from adidas listed on xetra. In google: ETR:ADS and in yahoo ...
7
votes
3answers
16k views

How to fit ARMA+GARCH Model In R?

I am currently working on ARMA+GARCH model using R. I am looking out for example which explain step by step explanation for fitting this model in R. I have time series which is stationary and I am ...
7
votes
2answers
1k views

HFT - How to define and measure latency?

I have read and heard a lot about latency. But I can't find any solid information that explains how latency is defined and measured. When people say they have achieved millisecond or nanosecond ...
12
votes
11answers
34k views

What is the difference between Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) and Z-spread?

I am preparing for the CFA level 2 exam, I got confused by the concept Z-spread and OAS. When a call option is added to a bond, since it is not favorable to the bond buyer, they would require more ...
12
votes
4answers
2k views

Are two identical time series cointegrated?

I did cointegration test on two identical time series, and the result shows that they are not cointegrated, but intuitively, I think they are. Can anyone share some thoughts on this? Thanks!
12
votes
6answers
2k views

Why does the VIX index have *any* correlation to the market?

It appears that the log 'returns' of the VIX index have a (negative) correlation to the log 'returns' of e.g. the S&P 500 index. The r-squared is on the order of 0.7. I thought VIX was supposed to ...
8
votes
2answers
5k views

What causes the call and put volatility surface to differ?

I currently have a local volatility model that uses the standard Black Scholes assumptions. When calculating the volatility surface, what causes the difference between the call volatility surface, ...
8
votes
4answers
1k views

What .NET library can I use to solve optimization problems?

I'm working with C# and I start being bored writing optimization algorithm. Do you know any free library containing this sort of algorithms? In particular I'm currently working with Semidefit ...
7
votes
5answers
3k views

How to get greeks using Monte-Carlo for arbitrary option?

Let's assume I have an arbitrary option that I can price using Monte-Carlo simulation. What is the general approach (i.e. without relying on specific option type) to calculating the greeks in this ...
5
votes
1answer
4k views

GARCH model and prediction

I have a question about the prediction of volatility and returns of a time series. Basically it is a question about prediction in the ...
5
votes
7answers
2k views

Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?

I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics: Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling Any pointers ...
2
votes
2answers
293 views

Shortcomings of generalized Brownian motion for asset price modelling

I'm simply interested on hearing some views on which shortcomings arise by using the (multidimensional) SDE $$dS(t)=S(t)\alpha(t,S(t))dt+S(t)\sigma(t,S(t))dW(t)$$ as a model for asset prices. I know ...
8
votes
1answer
5k views

Forecasting using rugarch package

I want to do one step ahead in-sample forecasts. My data can be found here. This is just a data frame with the date as the rownames. I specify my model and do the fit and show the plots with ...
8
votes
2answers
1k views

How to calculate the most realistic historical option prices with additional publicly available parameters

This is a follow up question of this one. My aim is to create the most realistic historical option prices possible with publicly available data. I want to do this for backtesting purposes. The ...
5
votes
1answer
744 views

Multi Fractals Models

From a quant point of view, how would you explain Multi Fractals Models in few words ? I have the level to take these courses, but won't be able to do it next year, so I want to know what I am ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

How to make the final Interpretation of PCA?

I have question regarding final loading of data back to original variables. So for example: I have 10 variable from a,b,c....j using returns for last 300 days i got return matrix of 300 X 10. ...
5
votes
1answer
759 views

Trade execution in HFT - role of quants

What is the role of quants in trade execution in high frequency trading? AFAIR in "normal" trading trade execution is considered a very mundane task. What role can quantitative modelling play in trade ...
4
votes
1answer
985 views

The effect of negative interest rates on derivative pricing

I am trying to get an overview of the impact on negative interest rates on financial products (in general). For the time being I distinguished the following products Vanilla options Exotic options ...
13
votes
3answers
4k views

How are limit orders selected from the order book?

I'm sure there is a simple answer to this but I haven't had any luck with searches. I'm just wondering when someone places a market order which order(s) from the limit order book are selected to fill ...
7
votes
1answer
2k views

Implied dividend estimation

I am looking at two different ways of estimating the expected / implied dividends from market data. 1. Dividend futures I know that this asset class is not very liquid and might not be ...
6
votes
1answer
106 views

FTAP a-la Harrison, Kreps and Pliska

I was reading the papers co-authored by Harrison, Kreps and Pliska, that initiated the formal research on the connection between pricing, martingale measures, arbitrage and completeness. I have some ...
6
votes
7answers
13k views

Exercising an American call option early

I have seen the rationale behind why it is never optimal to exercise an American call option early, but have a question about it. If the option strike price is $E=\$20$ and it expires at $T=1yr$, if ...
5
votes
3answers
1k views

Data Synchronization

I'm working on market trends. I have daily prices for 33 assets from different markets. I was wondering if there is a way to cancel the effects of different opening/closing times. I have been told ...
5
votes
1answer
422 views

How to value a floor when a loan is callable?

Certain bank loans pay a spread above a floating-rate interest rate (typically LIBOR) subject to a floor. I would like to find the value of this floor to the investor. Assume for this example that ...
1
vote
2answers
232 views

Which is the correct definition of arbitrage?

Spin-off from here. In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage, which is correct? The first definition is for the single period ...
5
votes
1answer
647 views

Risk-neutral pricing in incomplete markets

I know that in order to use the risk-neutral valuation principle, that is, pricing options as their payoff function under a risk neutral measure, one has to have a complete market. But in the ...
3
votes
1answer
242 views

Option prices in Bates SVJ model?

In this [post] discussed the European put and call price formulas under the Heston Stochastic Volatility model. There exists an important extension of Heston model to include diffusion jumps, known ...
3
votes
2answers
161 views

Inconsistent Definition of Arbitrage in Bjork?

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ what seems to be 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage: The first definition is for the single period Binomial model The ...
3
votes
1answer
251 views

How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation

In this paper on p315: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf They explain that they use Levenberg Marquardt (LM) (along with BHHH) to maximize the likelihood. However as I ...
3
votes
2answers
385 views

Forcing price to rise or fall by high volume buying and shorting

Is there an a name for the approach / strategy to artificially move a price either up or down by high volume buying or shorting. ie. Buying a large (say 5%) of a stock very quickly, thus ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Modelling VIX Futures for risk management

I would like to model VIX futures. The aim is not pricing but risk management. Thus I want to get risk measures like volatility right and be able to accurately calculate correlations when the VIX ...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

What are the limits of bond portfolio immunization against interest rate changes?

I'm currently reading through an article on bond portfolio immunization against changes in the interest rate. I learned that the immunization can be done against instant changes in interest rate ...
1
vote
1answer
250 views

Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
1
vote
1answer
997 views

Baye's rule for conditional expectations (Proof review)

The Baye's rule for conditional expectations states $$ E^Q[X|\mathcal{F}]E^P[f|\mathcal{F}]=E^P[Xf|\mathcal{F}] $$ With $f=dQ/dP$ - thus being the Radon-Nikodyn derivative and $X$ being ...
1
vote
1answer
810 views

Implied state price density (Question 1 - derivation of the formula)

I came upon the term "implied state price density" in a couple of papers. As far as I understand the concept one basically tries to extract the "pricing density" from the market data. For the sake ...
1
vote
1answer
651 views

Two prices pass the cointegration test but there is a trend. How to check stationarity?

Below is a spread built with two ETFs that pass the cointegration test i.e. Adjusted Dickey Fuller, adfTest(type="nc") in R's fUnitRoots with a p-value < 0.01. The red line is the trendline. What ...
4
votes
1answer
443 views

What is the relative performance of hard-to-borrow securities?

Is there any research on the equity return performance of hard-to-borrow securities? Many shops will simply screen for hard-to-borrow and eliminate these names from their short book. Anecdotally, ...
3
votes
3answers
348 views

Any package to run VAR-GARCH or VECM-GARCH models in R?

I need to estimate a multivariate VECM-GARCH (or simply VAR-GARCH) in R. Browsing on the internet, I did not find anything yet. Do you know if such kind of packages exists? Please, note that a BEKK ...

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