4
votes
0answers
387 views

How does one estimate theta in the Ho-Lee model from a yield curve?

I have a yield curve constructed using linear interpolation with data points every 3-months for US treasuries. I would like to use that calibrate a Ho-Lee model, but I can't wrap my head around how ...
4
votes
0answers
191 views

Discrete-time Jump-Diffusion Model

I am wondering if anybody could point me to any literature that talks about a discrete time version of the jump-diffusion model, I am aware that there is a paper by Amin (1993) that shows a discrete ...
4
votes
0answers
172 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
4
votes
0answers
207 views

How to estimate CAViaR (Engle and Manganelli 2004) using non linear quantile regression?

I am trying to replicate results from Engle and Manganelli (2004). The following is one of their specifications, $q_t(\theta)=\gamma_0+\gamma_1q_{t-1}(\theta)+\alpha|r_{t-1}|$, $q$ is the quantile of ...
4
votes
0answers
168 views

Is it more accurate to analyze returns on a calendar day basis than a trading day basis?

I'm rather new to the actual practice of this kind of analysis, but it just seems wrong to me to throw Mondays' returns in with the rest without accounting for the passage of time on the weekend when ...
4
votes
0answers
501 views

Is there a standard method of scaling alpha forecasts to t-cost estimates?

Given a set of monthly alpha forecasts (i.e. standardized z-scores from a multi-factor return model) and a non-linear market impact model (or more specifically, its piecewise-linear approximation), is ...
4
votes
0answers
122 views

Are there canonical test cases for testing of pricing engines

Short intro: We are developing pricing engines for the calculation of market risk in a Solvency II solution, including bonds, callable bonds, cds, options, futures and so on. Are there any canonical ...
4
votes
0answers
520 views

ATM volatility versus OTM volatility and directional standard deviation

The forward instrument vol curve is skewed to the downside (50 delta risk reversal, 25 put, 25 call) were trading several ticks to the put). Is there a smaller standard deviation (in price terms) to ...
4
votes
0answers
245 views

Taking into account the correlation in Barrier options on a Basket

In a Barrier option (where the contract cancels when the underlying hits the barrier) I succesfully found the way to compute the probability of a single underlying touching the barrier (with constant ...
4
votes
0answers
506 views

Algorithms for predicting a couple points in the future

I'm familiar with supervised learning algorithms like regression and neural networks which look at a bunch of input points and learn a function which outputs a value (the value varying depending on ...
4
votes
0answers
812 views

Hasbrouck's information share

Given a cointegrated set of price series, I am trying to compute the Hasbrouck's information share, as described in page 12-13 of this article. page 7-8 of this article I have the vector error ...
4
votes
0answers
196 views

What is the longest number of consecutive days that options implied volatility has stayed “extremely high” for any particular underlying?

Curious as to whether or not there is any sort of all time record. Any index, future, or stock will do. Volatility must be well above the average 1 year volatility for all periods.
3
votes
0answers
115 views

Common, practical methods to calculate fair value of a stock?

What are some common methods in determining fair value of a stock, from market data only, in real-time, as close to instantaneous as possible? The kind of pricing that algorithmic trading engines ...
3
votes
0answers
47 views

subadditivity of VaR

It is known that the VaR (Value at risk) doesn't fulfill subadditivity, i.e. $VaR(X)+VaR(Y) \le VaR(X+Y)$ But for elliptical distributions subadditivity is true. Questions: (1) Which ...
3
votes
0answers
51 views

What are the best measures of market liquidity?

Does any single metric provide a convenient way to capture depth, breadth, and resiliency, or to distinguish between transitory and persistent effects (i.e. between the stationary and random walk ...
3
votes
0answers
49 views

On the reflection of a stochastic integral

Let ${(I_t)}_{t\geq 0}$ be a stochastic integral defined by $$ I_t=\int_{0}^{t}\theta_sdW_t, $$ where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion defined on $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},{(\mathcal{F}_t)}_{t\geq ...
3
votes
0answers
60 views

Interpolation of forward zeros-coupons bonds simulations for missing maturities (ESG data)

I have a set of economic scenarios simulated with Barrie and Hibbert ESG. The stochastic model for interest rates used is Libor Market Model Shifted. I am facing a problem with zeros-coupons prices. ...
3
votes
0answers
39 views

Interplay of statistical factors (PCA) and market factors (value, momentum, low vol, …)

Is there any research done on the interplay between statistical factors (as a result of principle component analysis PCA) and the market factors (especially value, size, low vol, momentum, quality)? ...
3
votes
0answers
61 views

Solution for american perpetual put

I have been attempting an exercise in which I have to determine the value of an american perpetual put, $P$ in terms of the asset value $S$. The solution to the exercise says: When $S>S_f$ (the ...
3
votes
0answers
147 views

How quants use models for stock market prediction

I am learning machine learning to use it for stock market price forecasting. While doing that I got this question. If we take any country with stock exchange they have more than one investment assests ...
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Interpreting different factor models w.r.t. correlation matrix and min variance portfolio weights

Background In Eric Zivot's analysis of factor models he uses three models The sample (.sample) Single index model (.si) Barra factor industry model (.ind) PCA model (.pca) You can download his ...
3
votes
0answers
38 views

Is a position-weighted sum of nominal returns for a single asset a mathematically sound calculation?

A friend of mine insists that that the following is a sound method to calculate the performance of a single holding in a portfolio, given that over time more capital has been allocated to that ...
3
votes
0answers
33 views

Reset Date standard for ICP (Indice Camara Promedio) trade

What is the Reset Date standard for ICP (Indice Camara Promedio) trade? Trade Currencies are USD v/s CLP. Please provide the ISDA link if there are any amendments to ISDA standards.
3
votes
0answers
30 views

Calendar spread: What are the worst cases?

I am looking to solely make use of the theta decay and trying to overcome the effects of delta and Vega. ​​If, I sell ABC Feb OTM (strike price X) with 3 x 10 = Rs. 30 credit and buy ABC Mar OTM ...
3
votes
0answers
21 views

How to optimize an arbitrage portfolio when taking into account different speeds of mean reversion?

In portfolio optimization, it is insufficient to just note the size of price deviation - that only tells the amount of profit if held to maturity. One also needs to take into account reversion speed - ...
3
votes
0answers
69 views

Hedging cross gamma

I understand how to hedge delta and gamma risk. Could someone explain to me how cross gamma hedging is done by the trading desk. In particular I am interested in hedging for interest rate exotics. So ...
3
votes
0answers
102 views

What is the best open source automated trading platform or options?

I would like a custom C++ Automated Trading Platform for Futures like Multicharts, or similar automated trading platform that I can put on my servers so its secure and fast. I have found this ...
3
votes
0answers
24 views

FX Implied Volatility for Longer Term Maturities

To my knowledge, FX implied volatility can only be obtained from the market for time horizons up to about 5 years due to liquidity limitations. So how would we obtain volatility estimates for longer ...
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Enron - RhythmsNet hedge

I am reading "Power Failure: The Inside Story of The Collapse of Enron" By Mimi Swartz, Sherron Watkins. In the book, the following transaction is described: Enron had USD200mn worth of futures on ...
3
votes
0answers
71 views

How to simulate stock price with support and resistance level

I couldn't find good resources on how to simulate a stock price data sequence including some basic effects. The basis might be a Brownian motion model; but in real stock prices, there are additional ...
3
votes
0answers
49 views

Where can I find ETF fund flow data?

I know mutual fund data can easily be found on CRSP or Thomson Reuters, but where can I find solid ETF data, specifically their flows?
3
votes
0answers
91 views

Non-parametric estimator - CVAR / Expected shortfall

Is the estimation of the CVAR using known non-parametric methods (histogram , kernels) is different than the estimation of any other R.V.? If the answer is yes, then I am interested to know whether ...
3
votes
0answers
87 views

Ridiculous Bond Prices under Vasicek Model

Has anyone played with the parameters of the Vasicek model and observed the sometimes ridiculous bond prices it implies? E.g. with the right parameters, a 30-year zero is priced at $147,327. To be ...
3
votes
0answers
43 views

How does a Broker-Dealer lend shares to other Broker-Dealers?

Is it possible to find out how a OTC Broker-Dealer in thinly-traded equities lends shares for short-sales to other Broker-Dealers. Which platform or process is involved?
3
votes
0answers
73 views

Downloading IB futures data and then making a datapump to another program

I never have programmed before in my life but I wouldn't mind learning if I knew what i needed to do in order to solve my problem. I use neuroshell for day trading and use it extensively for trading ...
3
votes
0answers
85 views

Strategy Testing

Firstly I am a newbie so I will apologise in advance if this is in the wrong forum. My question concerns testing for an equity trading strategy and I would appreciate any comments as to whether my ...
3
votes
0answers
65 views

Duality of callable bond price

I am trying to understand the relationship between two methods of pricing callable bonds in the risk-neutral pricing framework. Problem statement Let's consider zero-coupon bond with face value 1, ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Estimating factor returns with linearly dependent loadings

Given an $n\times 1$ vector of asset returns $r$, and a $n\times k$ matrix of factor loadings $X$, we can express the asset returns in terms of as-yet-unknown factors $f$ using $$ r = Xf + \epsilon ...
3
votes
0answers
103 views

Order Book Dynamics

I have been following this paper: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.4596.pdf The model is especially pertinent as I only have access to L1 data. The model is clear and intuitive and I have implemented the ...
3
votes
0answers
103 views

Is Low-Volatility expensive these days? How can we analyze this?

Low volatility investing became somewhat fashionable in recent years. In general there are two approaches to this Ranking stocks of a certain universe by either stand-alone volatility or by beta and ...
3
votes
0answers
54 views

Modelling the Cost of Risk

I would like to read something about the cost of risk. Could anyone recommend some reference about how it is calculated or modelled?
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Turn of the year

I understand the basics of "Turn of the year" effect. But I am wondering why does this effect sometimes cause overnight rates around year end to dip below normal overnight rate levels (i.e. negative ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
3
votes
0answers
131 views

How to compute the stochastic integral of log-normal process?

How do you compute the following integral: $$\int_0^t e^{\mu s + \sigma W_s} ds$$ or $$\int_0^t e^{\mu s + \sigma W_s} dW_s$$ ? Are those integrals stochastic processes of some well-know type ...
3
votes
0answers
80 views

Fourth moment of ARCH(2)

I am studying the ARCH(2) process given by $$X_t = \sqrt{h_t} \varepsilon_t$$ where $$h_t = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 X_{t-1} ^2 + \alpha_2 X_{t-2} ^2$$ and $\varepsilon_t$ follows $N(0,1)$. ...
3
votes
0answers
119 views

What is the difference between gross and net enterprise wide risk?

Reading a Basel paper on recommendations on internal economic capital models. One of the recommendations says members of the bank's board should be able to demonstrate understanding of the difference ...
3
votes
0answers
20 views

Why should a factor not priced and yet is relevant to the return generating process

I am reading Elton's AFA presidential adress article here. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/eelton/working_papers/Expected_Return_Realized_Return.pdf In the paper, he is warning against using the average ...
3
votes
0answers
53 views

Finding mean vector and covariance matrix for annual returns given quarterly returns

I am currently trying to calculate a vector for the mean annual returns of 4 different asset classes along with their 4x4 covariance matrix in excel. However, I am having problems since the data I ...
3
votes
0answers
72 views

What are some options to execute ML algos against with live data using C#, F# or Python for a retail trader?

I'm a retail algorithmic trader. I've written some algorithms that parse intraday movements and make decisions. I still execute trades manually but eventually I need the ability to execute trades on ...
3
votes
0answers
46 views

Test for difference in security returns before and after financial regulation

I'm going to study the effect of corporate credit rating changes (Moody's) on stock prices before and after a specific financial regulation. So far i have used an event study where i have divided the ...

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