16
votes
4answers
3k views

Local Volatility vs. Stochastic Volatility

Are there any empirical observations or practices when to prefer Local Volatility Model for pricing over Stochastic Model or vice versa?
16
votes
4answers
1k views

Does mean-variance portfolio optimization provide a real edge to those who use it?

Mean-variance optimization (MVO) is a 50+ year concept, and perhaps the first seminal idea of quantitative finance. Still, as far as I know, less than 25% of AUM in the US is quantitatively managed. ...
16
votes
2answers
829 views

Diversification, Rebalancing and Different Means

I have found many financial authors making generalizations about GM and AM but they are wrong in certain circumstances. Could someone explain their reasoning? My fact why they are wrong is based ...
15
votes
7answers
16k views

Is the Interactive Brokers API suitable for hft?

By hft here I mean anything with holding period less than 5-10mins... Any empirical/anecdotal evidence of using it successfully on even higher frequencies?
15
votes
5answers
3k views

What methods do you use to improve expected return estimates when constructing a portfolio in a mean-variance framework?

One of the main problems when trying to apply mean-variance portfolio optimization in practice is its high input sensitivity. As can be seen in (Chopra, 1993) using historical values to estimate ...
15
votes
5answers
5k views

Is the stock price process a martingale or a Markov process?

Some people claim that the data-generating process for stocks is a "martingale" and that is has the "Markov property". Are they unrelated? Is it that the Markov property implies some sort of ...
15
votes
3answers
3k views

Can the concept of entropy be applied to financial time series?

I am not familiar with the concept of entropy for time series. I am looking for good reference papers and examples of use.
15
votes
6answers
2k views

Can social media be applied to algorithmic trading?

Can social media sites, like Twitter, be used to analyze financial markets for algorithmic trading? How much research has been done on this topic?
15
votes
3answers
4k views

Why hold options when you can dynamically replicate their payoff?

When holding vanilla options, you can cancel out, theoretically, all risk with dynamic (delta) hedging. Then you earn the "risk free rate of return". Why would you make such a portfolio when you can ...
15
votes
2answers
5k views

Transformation from the Black-Scholes differential equation to the diffusion equation - and back

I know the derivation of the Black-Scholes differential equation and I understand (most of) the solution of the diffusion equation. What I am missing is the transformation from the Black-Scholes ...
15
votes
2answers
1k views

From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
15
votes
2answers
3k views

What type of analysis is appropriate for assessing the performance time-series forecasts?

When using time-series analysis to forecast some type of value, what types of error analysis are worth considering when trying to determine which models are appropriate. One of the big issues that ...
15
votes
7answers
1k views

Are there ways to measure the risk aversion of a representative investor, based on publicly available market data?

Are there ways to measure the risk aversion of a representative investor, based on publicly available market data? Public available data could include asset price, volume, and flow data, and may be ...
15
votes
3answers
4k views

What are the best sources for equity quantitative research?

What are the best sources of quantitative finance research in equities? I will list a couple and note an asterisk if the research is available by request (i.e. non-clients) or online: BAC-Merrill ...
15
votes
5answers
5k views

Free paper trading site with an API

I've got a quanitative trading model I want to test out in the real stock market. Right now, I'm writing some code to pull "live" quotes from yahoo, feed them to my model, and keep track of the ...
15
votes
5answers
714 views

Model Validation Criteria

Let's say I have a brand new fancy model on some asset class (calibration porcedure included over a set of vanilla options) in which I truly believe I made a step forward comparing to existing ...
15
votes
2answers
1k views

How to execute a large futures order?

I am currently trading futures products on some contracts that have low volumes. More accurately, the volumes of working orders in the book are fairly light. I am trying to execute a relatively large ...
15
votes
4answers
578 views

Variable Selection in factor models

Let's say you have a dependent variable and many independent variables. What are the preferred metrics for sorting and selecting variables based on explanatory power? Let's say you are not concerned ...
15
votes
1answer
1k views

Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution

Let's say we have a predictive distribution of expected returns for N assets. The distribution is not normal. We can interpret the dispersion in the distribution as reflection of our uncertainty (or ...
14
votes
7answers
2k views

Good quant finance jokes

Have a good quant joke? Share it here. The principle "should be of interest to quants" trumps. I would be particularly keen to learn jokes which involve some nontrivial finance/mathematics. I am ...
14
votes
6answers
9k views

Is Scala used in trading systems

I'm curious about high performance computing and consider algo/program trading as an interesting source of information about what are performant technologies that are used to trade the markets. Is ...
14
votes
14answers
8k views

Is “eoddata” a good data source?

Not sure if this is a relevant question for site, but I am looking to move to www.eoddata.com as my data source. If anyone has used it, can you tell me how the data quality is ? I am currently ...
14
votes
5answers
4k views

What exactly is meant by “microstructure noise”?

I see that term tossed around a lot, in articles relating to HFT, and ultra high frequency data. It says at higher frequencies, smaller intervals, microstructure noise is very dominant. What is ...
14
votes
7answers
10k views

Switching from Matlab to Python for Quant Trading and Research

Has anybody else out there made this switch? I'm considering it right now. What were the negatives and positives of the switch?
14
votes
7answers
8k views

What is the “delta” option quoting convention about?

At my work I often see option prices or vols quoted against deltas rather than against strikes. For example for March 2013 Zinc options I might see 5 quotes available for deltas as follows: ...
14
votes
5answers
8k views

How do you explain the volatility smile in the Black-Scholes framework?

Does anyone have an explanation for the currently naturally forming volatility smile (and the variations) in the market?
14
votes
4answers
12k views

Why are GARCH models used to forecast volatility if residuals are often correlated?

The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...
14
votes
5answers
1k views

How to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin?

A fairly naive approach to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin is to calculate the probabilities of all the permutations of your sample returns, keeping track of those that hit your drawdown / ...
14
votes
3answers
619 views

Empirical or theoretical quant insights that have shaped your thinking?

What are some quant theoretical or empirical insights that have shaped your thinking or provided a deeper conceptual basis for explaining returns and risk?
14
votes
4answers
5k views

Implementing data-structures in a Limit order book

I'm working on implementing a 'LOB' and I'm being very careful about choosing my data-structures so as to maximize performance. Using F# as an example, I need to consider a List versus Array for ...
14
votes
5answers
1k views

George Soros models

Mr. Soros in his books talked about principles which are not used by today's financial mathematics — namely reflexivity of all actions on the market. Simply it can be given by following: ...
14
votes
8answers
6k views

Probability of touching

For a vanilla option, I know that the probability of the option expiring in the money is simply the delta of the option... but how would I calculate the probability, without doing monte carlo, of the ...
14
votes
2answers
718 views

How do you distinguish “significant” moves from noise?

How do you distinguish between losses that are within the normal range for day-to-day shifts and situations with a real potential for loss? The specific application I have in mind is pattern ...
14
votes
1answer
7k views

How to interpret the eigenmatrix from a Johansen cointegration test?

I ran a Johansen cointegration test on 3 instruments, A B and C. The results that I got are: ...
14
votes
2answers
727 views

Concentration risk in credit portfolio

How do you model concentration risk of credit portfolio in IRB/Basel II framework?
14
votes
2answers
574 views

Who has introduced the term 'vega' and why?

The sensitivity of the option value $V$ to volatility $\sigma$ (a.k.a. vega) is different from the other greeks. It is a derivative with respect to a parameter and not a variable. To quote from Paul ...
14
votes
3answers
1k views

Is there a way to estimate (predict) the half life of a quantitative trading system?

Usually even good performing quant trading strategies work for a while and then return start to shrink. I see two reasons for that which would probably give rise to different analysis: The Strategy ...
14
votes
2answers
1k views

Is there a standard method for getting a continuous time series from futures data?

I would like to be able to analyse futures prices as one continuous time series, so what kinds of methods exist for combining the prices for the various delivery dates into a single time series? I am ...
14
votes
2answers
1k views

Parameter estimation of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and CIR processes

I would like to estimate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process' parameters via Kalman filter. My process is the following one: $\text{d}x_{t}=\alpha(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t+\sigma\text{d}W_{t}$ I'm interested ...
14
votes
0answers
647 views

Law of an integrated CIR Process as sum of Independent Random Variables

It is known (see for example Joshi-Chan "Fast and Accureate Long Stepping Simulation of the Heston SV Model" available at SSRN) that for a CIR process defined as : $$dY_t= \kappa(\theta -Y_t)dt+ ...
13
votes
5answers
3k views

What C++ math libraries are typically used by quants?

Before you mark question as off-topic, please read it - it is, actually, quant-related. Basically, I'm working on an app that spits out a lot of C++ math. When it comes to simple things like ...
13
votes
6answers
1k views

Setting the r in put-call parity?

Put-call parity is given by $C + Ke^{-r(T-t)} = P + S$. The variables $C$, $P$ and $S$ are directly observable in the market place. $T-t$ follows by the contract specification. The variable $r$ is ...
13
votes
6answers
22k views

How to check if a timeseries is stationary?

I'm using KPSS Method to check if the series is stationary, but I would also like to use another test to confirm if the series is stationary or not, what method coudl I use?
13
votes
3answers
4k views

Papers about backtesting option trading strategies

I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
13
votes
3answers
2k views

How to incorporate technical indicators into neural networks?

I plan to develop a neural network to trade commodities futures, but while messing around with some code, a question came up. If I understand correctly, people use various technical indicators with ...
13
votes
3answers
11k views

Correlation between prices or returns?

If you are interested in determining whether there is a correlation between the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and PPI, would you calculate the correlation between values (prices) or period-to-period ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views

What are the limitations of Gaussian copulas in respect to pricing credit derivatives?

The practice of using Gaussian copulas in modeling credit derivatives has come under a lot of criticism in the past few years. What are the major arguments against using the copula method in this ...
13
votes
6answers
2k views

Formal proof for risk-neutral pricing formula

As you know, the key equation of risk neutral pricing is the following: $\exp^{-rt} S_t = E_Q[\exp^{-rT} S_T | \mathcal{F}_t]$ That is, discounted prices are Q-martingales. It makes real-sense for ...
13
votes
4answers
2k views

Is there any good research on support and resistance?

Could somebody advise me on where to find good literature on the justification or motivation for using support and resistance lines - and also lines of maximums and minimums. In finance, it is ...
13
votes
6answers
2k views

Why are options trades supposed to be delta-neutral?

I'm reading Natenberg's book, and he says that all options trades should be delta neutral. I understand that this prevents small changes in the underlying price from changing the price of the option, ...

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